Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[Prophecy2k]

I can't see the performance loss being hugely impactful on 360, especially if games are designed for it rather than ports. Cross-platform titles will no doubt look ~identical to PS3.

I agree with this, but then I would also say that I can't see multiplatform game developers really "tacking on" Natal functionality for what would effectively be very little benefit to the 360+Natal users (given that the PS3 doesn't have Natal and so the multiplatform title in question wouldn't be designed with Natal in mind).

Natal games will be made specifically for Natal, in the same way Eyetoy games were made for that peripheral. The scope for "tacking on" any kind of meaningful Natal functionality in existing games (i.e. those designed for a traditional controller) is extremely limited, would mostly come across as rather shallow, and in most cases wouldn't even be worth the developer's effort.

In that sense it's very good for Natal as the games will be built specially for it. However it would surely also put MS in an interesting (and rather sensitive) position, as given their limited in-house developer resources the focus will be on 3rd parties choosing to develop ground-up Natal games for an installed base that is currently effectively non-existent. MS will have to work hard to get devs and publishers on board.

On the other hand I'm quite sure that 360-Natal is being employed by MS as a proving ground for Natal-720 ;-)

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Natal games will be made specifically for Natal, in the same way Eyetoy games were made for that peripheral. The scope for "tacking on" any kind of meaningful Natal functionality in existing games (i.e. those designed for a traditional controller) is extremely limited...

I see the problem being that all 3 consoles will have motion controls, two of which including the fly-away success being very similar remote-style devices. Wii-ports to PS3 make some sense, and if 360 has motion controls, why not create a Natal version too? The problem won't be that existing game (styles) like Halo have Natal shoehorned into them, but that game development will be 'motion centric' and not 'Natal centric'. eg. a RTS will have PS3 using Gem like a mouse, with small wrist movements to select units, and an XB360 version will use broad arm-gestures generating unneccessary fatigue.

If developers don't try Natal as an independent experience and instead see it as the motion interface of XB360, the Natal experience will be tacked onto future motion games designed with a different style of interface in mind. That would be very damaging, similar to Sixaxis adoption where few really 'got it' or designed for it.

 

[joker454]

On the other hand I'm quite sure that 360-Natal is being employed by MS as a proving ground for Natal-720 ;-)

That is exactly what they are doing, flesh out Natal on the 360 first, then improve it on the next box. I have no clue why people keep talking about them shipping a hardware improved 360. They are making more profit per console than their competitor, they have sold more units than their competitor, they are the preferred platform by developers, and they have the better overall hardware for games compared to their competitor. Why in heck do they need to release a hardware upgrade? It makes absolutely no sense, they are completely in the drivers seat for the remainder of this gen which has largely already been mapped out by publishers for the next two years.

Instead just release Natal, treat it like a console launch complete with ridiculous marketing dollars and huge developer support, both of which are already in place, and launch in late 2010. It it flops then ship a new machine in 2011, if not then delay the next hardware until 2012. That's is, a simple plan. I have no idea why people keep thinking the 360 needs a hardware upgrade, where does this fud come from? The existing hardware will take them easily to 2012.

 

[Crossbar]

where does this fud come from?

I think he is a friend of yours.

 

[Squilliam]

That is exactly what they are doing, flesh out Natal on the 360 first, then improve it on the next box. I have no clue why people keep talking about them shipping a hardware improved 360. .

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/click_online/7820866.stm

The reason for my statement so I may as well give the source. It looks like a TV with Natal interface + NXE.

So the reason why I figure an Xbox 360 upgrade is so they can run Natal and do full blown Xbox 360 games as well as doing whatever else in the background the TV needs.

 

[wco81]

Hard to believe there's complacency with current tech at B3D, especially in this thread.

Whether it makes economic sense or not, one would suppose enthusiasm for technology would make want the next-gen to arrive sooner than later?

 

[grandmaster]

Of course but the bottom line is that the next gen is unlikely to hit until the current gen has paid for itself. Stands to reason really...

 

[assen]

Hard to believe there's complacency with current tech at B3D, especially in this thread.

Whether it makes economic sense or not, one would suppose enthusiasm for technology would make want the next-gen to arrive sooner than later?

I'm a developer first, and a user second; I suppose I would be more enthusiastic as a user.

As a developer:

- I want to explore the current tech way, way more than our current budgets have allowed me - purely from a enthusiast coder point of view; I feel we've barely scratched the surface;
- I want to see return on the investment we made in the current gen
- I see how enormous technological progress on the PC side has remained largely unused, in a tiny corner of the market
- last but not least, the next generation will probably bring, at least initially, another order of magnitude in content production cost, which will hurt small developers as us a lot.

For example, I hear enthusiasm about Blu-ray's jump from 50 to 66 GB, yet the last Xbox 360 game we shipped could have fit well into 2 GB with about a programmer/week more work - with five languages. Forgive me for being unable to related to that enthusiasm

 

[wco81]

But the current tech is about 5 years old now, maybe older.

Isn't it more about developing with certain fiscal constraints as well as tech constraints?

At least with the next-gen, there will be fewer tech constraints. You'd expect more RAM and of course more capable CPU and GPU.

The data size is more about art assets, isn't it?

 

[assen]

At least with the next-gen, there will be fewer tech constraints. You'd expect more RAM and of course more capable CPU and GPU.

The data size is more about art assets, isn't it?

Art assets are a huge fraction of the costs.

But tech constraints? Depends on the direction the next generation will take. If the consoles go the GC -> Wii route (or even Xbox -> 360), there will be fewer tech constraints, as you say, because beefier CPUs and more RAM would make some things easier. (This will only help during the launch window where it's acceptable to ship "prev-gen but higher-res everything" games.)

If the evolution is towards higher parallelization and a greater role of the GPU, this will put strain on the tech side, too.

 

[woundingchaney]

While I agree no hardware upgrade is necessary, the above statement is full of bias. The sales gap is closing, and if the 360 is the better overall hardware for games, where are 360 games that match Uncharted 2 and Killzone 2, as well as GT5P, a 2008 "demo" none the less.
It may be a better console for YOU, but that's just your opinion.

I believe he is speaking from the market perspective and his actual experience developing for the consoles, rather than any personal user or consumer preference.

 

[joker454]

While I agree no hardware upgrade is necessary, the above statement is full of bias. The sales gap is closing, and if the 360 is the better overall hardware for games, where are 360 games that match Uncharted 2 and Killzone 2, as well as GT5P, a 2008 "demo" none the less.
It may be a better console for YOU, but that's just your opinion.

It has nothing to do with my preference, it's ultimately a question of money:

1) MS makes more profit on the console hardware than their competitor, and will do so for the duration of this gen.

2) MS makes more money on royalties on games as they sell more games than their competitor.

3) MS makes more money on online, both because they charge for it and because Live is the place to be if you want to make money (I've seen the numbers on that and PSN doesn't compare) so they get more cash cuts from all content put up there.

4) MS make more money from 'misc' sales like avatar items, movies, etc.

They just make more money all around, it really is quite lopsided this gen with regards to the profitability of each box. Given that, I'd love someone to explain to me how it even remotely makes any sense for them to fracture the userbase by introducing new tweaked hardware given that:

1) the current hardware basically prints money
2) the current hardware is the development standard for this gen and will be so for the duration (remember, 2012 games are being planned and developed today).
3) the current hardware has a very mature and complete tool and support system in place
4) the current hardware has plenty of power to last until next gen and it's not surpassed by other hardware irregardless of how many people many think so

It makes zero sense. If MS did release a tweaked 360, like with higher clocked gpu or whatever, then they would officially become the dumbest company on the planet. There is simply no business need to do so.

Regarding Natal, I really hope the rumors are true and that cpu hardware was yanked from it. There is no reason to introduce an expensive peripheral this late in the game. They need to have a $199 Natal pack for thanksgiving 2010, basically a 360 Arcade + Natal + some Natal games. If yanking cpu hardware from Natal lets them hit that goal then I'm 110% for it. In fact it could be beneficial as it may force people to think outside of the box and develop new types of games, which is what Natal is for in the first place. Forget about the hardcore audience, it's a complete waste of time catering to them with the Natal. The 360 already has the hardcore audience. Instead use Natal to make totally new experences to get a totally new audience, that's what it should be for. In that respect I'd be happy if Natal had no cpu in it since it would make it harder to just natal-i-fy existing games, which I feel is a losing strategy.

 

[Farid]

It's speculation time!

We're in 2010 now, this thread has been going for +3250 posts. I think it's time people start posting up some adjusted specifications they expect the future machine would support.

Of course, I'm not asking for an interruption of the current discussions, just to add some content in the form of actual predictions. You might restrict yourself to only a single console, or even a single component (CPU, GPU, RAM, I/O).

TD;DR: It's been a while, it's a new year, it's time to post your latest console hardware predictions.

 

[corduroygt]

It has nothing to do with my preference, it's ultimately a question of money:

1) MS makes more profit on the console hardware than their competitor, and will do so for the duration of this gen.

2) MS makes more money on royalties on games as they sell more games than their competitor.

3) MS makes more money on online, both because they charge for it and because Live is the place to be if you want to make money (I've seen the numbers on that and PSN doesn't compare) so they get more cash cuts from all content put up there.

4) MS make more money from 'misc' sales like avatar items, movies, etc.

They just make more money all around, it really is quite lopsided this gen with regards to the profitability of each box. Given that, I'd love someone to explain to me how it even remotely makes any sense for them to fracture the userbase by introducing new tweaked hardware given that:

1) the current hardware basically prints money
2) the current hardware is the development standard for this gen and will be so for the duration (remember, 2012 games are being planned and developed today).
3) the current hardware has a very mature and complete tool and support system in place
4) the current hardware has plenty of power to last until next gen and it's not surpassed by other hardware irregardless of how many people many think so

It makes zero sense. If MS did release a tweaked 360, like with higher clocked gpu or whatever, then they would officially become the dumbest company on the planet. There is simply no business need to do so.

Regarding Natal, I really hope the rumors are true and that cpu hardware was yanked from it. There is no reason to introduce an expensive peripheral this late in the game. They need to have a $199 Natal pack for thanksgiving 2010, basically a 360 Arcade + Natal + some Natal games. If yanking cpu hardware from Natal lets them hit that goal then I'm 110% for it. In fact it could be beneficial as it may force people to think outside of the box and develop new types of games, which is what Natal is for in the first place. Forget about the hardcore audience, it's a complete waste of time catering to them with the Natal. The 360 already has the hardcore audience. Instead use Natal to make totally new experences to get a totally new audience, that's what it should be for. In that respect I'd be happy if Natal had no cpu in it since it would make it harder to just natal-i-fy existing games, which I feel is a losing strategy.

I am in agreement with you that 360 needs no hardware upgrade, and it might be much better for the developer-friendly. I also agree with you that no chip in the camera add on is good, since that bundle's competition is wii and don't foresee any complex games for it.

However, I was only disputing two points, that it was better for games from a gamer's perspective and if you go by publisher figures, the money they make, WORLDWIDE, isn't that much better on the 360 than the PS3. That means royalties, also bear in mind that as the biggest stakeholder in BD discs, Sony gets both game and BD royalties from each PS3 game sold. You are most likely correct in 360 having lower hardware costs, as long as we exclude warranty repair costs.

Going back to next generation hardware, I predict DX11+ GPU's to be pretty much standard for both consoles. CPU is the wildcard, but I believe both will keep BC, and go with an improved design of their processors, both multicore PPC's, with extra SPU's for Sony. I have no desire to see the bloated and inefficient x86 ISA in consoles, seeing that PC game development should have all but died by then.

 

[liolio]

We're in 2010 now, this thread has been going for +3250 posts. I think it's time people start posting up some adjusted specifications they expect the future machine would support.

Of course, I'm not asking for an interruption of the current discussions, just to add some content in the form of actual predictions. You might restrict yourself to only a single console, or even a single component (CPU, GPU, RAM, I/O).

TD;DR: It's been a while, it's a new year, it's time to post your latest console hardware predictions.

Indeed specifications for the next generation systems are likely to be set sooner than latter, I hope we will hear more rumors and more solid ones too. However I feel like it won't be as interesting as it was for the current gen, this gen we saw the birth multi-core systems and something as radical as the cell. ( Funnily I registered here because all the talk about it and the ps3 and ended up with... a 360 ). In the last pages an interesting discussion has occurred about the amount of RAM we can expect and it appears that more than 2GB is highly unlikely for any launch that would occur from now till 2012.
For the hard per itself as much as it hurts my "geekyness" I almost no longer hope for something really exotic/new or radical. It will most likely be some CPU cores (or an slightly evolved Cell) + a potent GPU no matter it comes on a single die or two. At this stage something new/radical would be a many core design from the cpu space ala larabee or a GPU that would have grow potent enough to run a system on its own.
I can think of only one manufacturer that could go with such a risky bet and could offer a fitting development environment for such a chip: Microsoft. Overall I would put the odd really really low, the only little hope I still have is because of Corinne Yu and Epic presentations both working at or closely with MS that describe the next generation system as "the many core area".
But the odds are really low for many reasons:
*R&D costs for both the software and the hardware. Not sure Ms could find or would want partners (as Sony did) to develop such a chip so no matter the chip end up as their own efforts or they pay ATI/AMD or IBM for help that would be a bunch of money.
*Risks both at hardware and software level (unproven technology => iffy perf and it makes sense to avoid "marginalization" when multiplatform games are more relevant than ever to the business).

Overall I prepare my-self for a "play safe" round with in the end marginal differences within the systems in the grand scheme of things (I'm not implying that systems will suck in any way or that play safe is not a better option even for an enthusiastic gamer POV, it's just not feeding my and others I guess geekiness).
My geekiness screams for a crazy many-cores design using VLIW with close to zero fixe function unit, I want to see a pretty succesful vliw chip for the sake of it, I want "the next step in the RISC philosophy" to have a proper heir. EPIC failed for various reasons, Transmetta failed, etc. I feel like console realm could be a place for that kind of architecture if you put BC aside. May be Ms and ATI could pull this but I don't consider this as realistic or as a prediction more like a geek brain fart

Bonne année

 

[NRP]

I'm going to make a prediction in a very general sense. I think the next gen will not get too radical on the CPU side, most likely just extensions/improvements of what we currently have.

If Sony and/or MS get radical next gen, I think it will be on the gpu side. I say this because I think the future direction will involve moving more stuff to the gpu. Besides, gpu IHVs are already designing chips to accomodate this.

Regarding clockspeeds, core/shader processor counts, RAM, etc I really don't know. The only thing I'm sure of is the practical TDP and noise limits associated with such a small form factor will not allow for some peoples' hardware wet dreams.

 

[MarkoIt]

If launched in Nov 2011 (therefore decided in Spring 2011)
Xbox Next:
4 core Barcellona (32nm)
2 Gb GDDR5@1750Mhz
ATi Gpu based on N.I (28nm) (200 mm^2, 3 billion transistor, 3 Teraflops+)
Fast GPU cache (32mb)
16+ GB of fast flash memory
Blu ray reader
Wireless N, Gigabit lan + USB 3. 0 Ports
Natal 2.0
No HD for low-end SKU, 500 gb for Premium SKU.

If launched in 2012:

Second Gen APU (4 core barcellona + 1Teraflops NI GPU on die)@22nm
4 Gb GDDR5+ or XDR2
ATi GPU based on 2th iteration of N.I architecture (22nm, 200mm^2, 5 bilion transistor, 5 Teraflops)
Fast GPU cache (64mb)
32Gb+ fast flash memory
BR reader
250 Gb HD for low-end SKU (299$)
1000 Gb HD for premium SKU (399$)
Natal 2.0
Wireless N, Gigabit lan + USB 3. 0 Ports

 

[corduroygt]

You are definitely very very optimistic about process technologies and transistor scaling. All that stuff you listed would cost $600 at launch if not more.

 

[Squilliam]

Im going to go by Microsoft only because I believe they will be first movers again, between late 2011 and late 2012.

Ok the theme for this speculation for Microsoft is based on three guiding points.

1. Fixed costs are the enemy and by including an advanced camera with every system they have to keep the entry SKUs cost down, they want a design which scales rapidly with most components being things which will become far cheaper.

2. They only have ~25-30% current generation market share. The people who have no investment towards the Xbox 360 will be easiest to sway by a cheaper system and the people who already have invested considerable time/money in the Xbox 360 will be more willing to pay for a more expensive system.

3. Digital distribution will be important and it is a focus of the design to a greater extent.

Xbox next Arcade:

Dimensions will be roughly 33% smaller than the current Xbox 360 design.

Im picking an all AMD architecture for this generation for Microsoft, the changes in the X86 royalties and stipulations makes this possible in the deal made between AMD and Intel.

CPU: Im picking a somewhat customised 3 module (6int threads, 3 FP threads) Bulldozer with unknown L1/2 cache and 3MB of L3 cache running at between 2.5 and 3.2Ghz.

3 module is what I believe should be enough to ensure backwards compatibility.

GPU: Roughly based on a Juniper level design, 1200 stream processors with one functional unit disabled and 28 texture units (ROPS are with ED-Ram). 800 stream processors dedicated to graphics with 320 available for either GPGPU tasks or graphics. Overall clockspeed I pick at between 650 and 750 Mhz

ED-Ram or equivalent: ~24MB-30MB with ROP tweaks to enable the framebuffer to spit out two 3D ready frames per one standard frame.

Die size: ~250-280mm^2 on a 32nm Global Foundries SOI process. (AMD chips are this big so not a problem) and TDP ~90-110W.

Memory: 2GB (8*2Gb) GDDR5+ on a 128bit bus with overall memory bandwidth of ~90GB/s

Other: Wireless N, USB 3.0, Blu Tooth, Flash card reader.

Storage: 32GB NAND flash, not fast but cheap and effective.

Xbox 360 Elite differences:

Optical drive with Blu Ray.
500 GB HDD

Only 10% smaller than current Xbox 360 and comes with a 2.4ghz module to run legacy controllers etc.

Pricing: Xbox next Arcade will cost $249 on launch and the Xbox 360 Elite will cost $399. After one year of release and with a die shrink done, Microsoft will cut the price of the Arcade back to $199 and introduce a Premium model for $299 with a HDD but no optical drive with a 2.4Ghz module for legacy controllers.

Why flash?

1. They are reliable so they save ~$5-10 on warranty repairs.
2. Don't have to pay $10-15 per console for movie playback.
3. Reduces the size and cost of the console by at least $20.
4. Greater control over piracy if source of production is controlled.
5. Its good encouragement for digital distribution.
6. Can enable the use of kiosks to download games onto rewriteable flash to enable game distribution anywhere for both rental and ownership.
7. Discourages throwaway shovelware type games.
8. Makes the system extremely quiet.
9. Lets them do price discrimination, with consumers who want hard copies paying more and consumers who want un-transferable copies from kiosks paying less.
10. The change-over point between $2-3 DVD + package being cheaper than $6-7 for flash + package occours after roughly 4-5 game purchases. However by limiting the number of hard copies sold and relying more on digital distribution they can keep the average number of flash cartridges sold at or before that mark.

 

[chris1515]

You are definitely very very optimistic about process technologies and transistor scaling. All that stuff you listed would cost $600 at launch if not more.

I think the first process for next generation will be 32 nm. In 2012, the process for current gen will be 32 nm (CPU + GPU). My guess Sony will continue with CELL(2 PPU + 32 SPUs), no needs to develop a new OS and no needs for developers to learn something new. For the SPU, only one change a better ISA. Maybe the frequency of the CELL will be a bit more. For the GPU, I think it will be comparable to the AMD/ATI 5870 in term of power, maybe more flexible but not more powerful. It is a problem with power/cost on the console side. I think the current gen is the last with a top PC GPU on the console side. For the PS4, I am not sure Sony will continue with Nvidia. On the memory side, 2 or 4 Go , I hope 4Go. Bluray 4x disc for the PS4 and the Xbox next, maybe with 100 GB capacity. Two version for next generation console, one with only SSD, and the other with SSD and a HDD. SSD is ideal because the cost is not constant like HDD and less restriction than on the actual xbox arcade for online content. I think sony and MS will add motion control with the next gen consoles. Natal or Pswand add on is not suitable and the two compagnies want some pie of the wii marketshare but without losing the hardcore gamer. And the two console will be compatible with 3d TV.

PS4:
CPU: 2 beefed up PPU + 32 SPUs(4 SPUs disabled and + 1 reserved for the OS)
GPU: 2 to 3 Tflops DX 11 GPUs maybe some EDRAM and a custom one this time.
RAM: 2 or 4 Go of XDR2 or/and GDDR5. I hope only one type of memory and unified memory
DISC: BR maybe 100 Go capacity
Additional storage: SSD 32 GB for all the models, HDD on the high end model
Others: wifi, maybe USB 3.0, bluetooth, HDMI 1.4
A motion controler different from the PS wand.
backward compatibilty with PS1, PS2 and PS3 via software emulation.

Xbox next:
CPU: updated version of the XeCPU with beefed up core and more core (8 to 12 core)
GPU: 2 to 3 Tflops DX11 with at least 32 mb of EDRAM
RAM: 2 or 4 Go of GDDR 5
DISC: BR maybe 100 Go capacity
Additional storage.: SSD 32 GB for all the models, HDD on the high end model
Others: maybe USB 3.0, HDMI 1.4, I hope some wifi network card this time
Natal 2.0
A standard controller or maybe something else
backward compatibiliy with xbox and xbox 360.



Sorry English is not my native language.