Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[phenix]

100 GB, 8X Bu-Ray discs/drives are not so far. Sharp developed a new technology recently which will make such drives possible. http://www.physorg.com/news172481493.html

I hope this will be cheap enough until next generation consoles launch. From 2X (Playstation3) to 8X data rate will be increased from 72 Mb/s to 288 Mb/s. For comparison Xbox360s DVD drive has a data rate of 130 Mb/s (12X).

 

[Barbarian]

Whoever is wishing for 100Gb games needs a reality check. Please name even one SHIPPED game that is even approaching 50Gb. And please don't talk about mega texturing as if every developer is doing this. Just the opposite, there are NO shipped games that use the "mega" mega texturing (Quake Wars fits on a single DVD).

As for how viable digital distribution is, I'll just point to Shadow Complex. 800Mb game, exceptional value, exceptional quality, beats the crap out of anything I bought on a disc all year.

 

[I.S.T.]

Whoever is wishing for 100Gb games needs a reality check. Please name even one SHIPPED game that is even approaching 50Gb. And please don't talk about mega texturing as if every developer is doing this. Just the opposite, there are NO shipped games that use the "mega" mega texturing (Quake Wars fits on a single DVD).

As for how viable digital distribution is, I'll just point to Shadow Complex. 800Mb game, exceptional value, exceptional quality, beats the crap out of anything I bought on a disc all year.

Despite how insanely refined it is, it doesn't have that much content. it's designed for repeat plays to gain levels and items. That's about it.

FWIW, I doubt anything next gen will use more than a 50 gig disc.

 

[sunscar]

Whoever is wishing for 100Gb games needs a reality check. Please name even one SHIPPED game that is even approaching 50Gb. And please don't talk about mega texturing as if every developer is doing this. Just the opposite, there are NO shipped games that use the "mega" mega texturing (Quake Wars fits on a single DVD).

As for how viable digital distribution is, I'll just point to Shadow Complex. 800Mb game, exceptional value, exceptional quality, beats the crap out of anything I bought on a disc all year.

ID's already said they could more than fill a standard Blu-ray with the content from RAGE, and there are others who've stated as much. It stands to reason that a developer six years from now might just need a little more.

With that said I never said I wanted 100+GB games - Quite the opposite, really, I'm thinking of the nightmare it could be to manage that data.

As for DD - It works for some things, yes, but there is a HUGE difference between downloading an 800MB file vs downloading an 80GB game, loaded to the gills with uncompressed texture files, and it's unrealistic that anybody right now wants to require that.






Side note - How is it this hard to explain to people that RAGE2 *might* just take up more space than RAGE?

 

[Brad Grenz]

Christ, are we gonna have this debate again?

 

[Grall]

As for how viable digital distribution is, I'll just point to Shadow Complex. 800Mb game, exceptional value, exceptional quality, beats the crap out of anything I bought on a disc all year.

Unfortunately your example does nothing to actually prove the viability of digital distribution, since a sub-gigabyte game is not comparable to a several-dozen-gigabyte game.

Even 800MB takes a fair while to download on a 256kbit connection - and these are still very very common. 50GB would take absolutely bloody ages at such a speed.

 

[RudeCurve]

I'll just point to Shadow Complex. 800Mb game, exceptional value, exceptional quality, beats the crap out of anything I bought on a disc all year.

SC is a great game, but it's essentially a last generation game in high resolution. It wouldn't have been downloaded as much as it has if it costs $60.

 

[Panajev2001a]

Whoever is wishing for 100Gb games needs a reality check. Please name even one SHIPPED game that is even approaching 50Gb. And please don't talk about mega texturing as if every developer is doing this. Just the opposite, there are NO shipped games that use the "mega" mega texturing (Quake Wars fits on a single DVD).

As for how viable digital distribution is, I'll just point to Shadow Complex. 800Mb game, exceptional value, exceptional quality, beats the crap out of anything I bought on a disc all year.

Barbarian, you do know that no sane game developer who is not doing an exclusive PS3 game will even try to think how to use much more than an Xbox 360's DVD worth of space.

PC mostly use DVD's, Wii uses DVD's, Xbox 360 uses DVD's, ... I wonder why multi-platform developers are not pushing for 20-30 GB games...

Come on .

 

[Prophecy2k]

Barbarian, you do know that no sane game developer who is not doing an exclusive PS3 game will even try to think how to use much more than an Xbox 360's DVD worth of space.

PC mostly use DVD's, Wii uses DVD's, Xbox 360 uses DVD's, ... I wonder why multi-platform developers are not pushing for 20-30 GB games...

Come on .

Id with Rage??? Final Fantasy XIII??? Since Splash Damage's game Brink uses a similar tech to Id Tech 5, I'd assume that will take up more space than an xbox360 DVD too...

I'm sure many more games later on in this generation will end up being multi-disc releases on the 360. Maybe not the majority, as there's alot that stands against uber large games on the Xbox 360, i.e. MS multi-disc fees, inconvenience of having to install multiple discs on the HDD (for those that choose to), the almost impossibility of the game being released DD on XBL. Regardless though, I don't see devs like Square Enix, Id, Splash Damage and anyone else who lincences Id Tech 5 (and there will be some) gimping their games by trying to fit their games on one DVD and so not taking advantage of their tech... they'll all continue to make large texture rich games for both platforms, implying multiple discs on 360 and a nice big fat Blu-Ray on PS3.

Whether many here realise it or not, Blu-Ray size games and above are the future. Anything less won't be enough to lure people into upgrading next-gen.

 

[RudeCurve]

Whether many here realise it or not, Blu-Ray size games and above are the future. Anything less won't be enough to lure people into upgrading next-gen.

Umm..I don't think anyone here is saying next generation console games will use DVD.

 

[Prophecy2k]

Umm..I don't think anyone here is saying next generation console games will use DVD.

Forgive me if i was wrong but it certainly sounded like that's what Barbarian was implying with his post.

While I'm not sure if (many) games next-gen will be in excess of 100GB on disc, but I do think we'll be seeing many more "larger than DVD9" games even this gen. That was my basic point RudeCurve.

 

[Panajev2001a]

Id with Rage??? Final Fantasy XIII??? Since Splash Damage's game Brink uses a similar tech to Id Tech 5, I'd assume that will take up more space than an xbox360 DVD too...

I'm sure many more games later on in this generation will end up being multi-disc releases on the 360. Maybe not the majority, as there's alot that stands against uber large games on the Xbox 360, i.e. MS multi-disc fees, inconvenience of having to install multiple discs on the HDD (for those that choose to), the almost impossibility of the game being released DD on XBL. Regardless though, I don't see devs like Square Enix, Id, Splash Damage and anyone else who lincences Id Tech 5 (and there will be some) gimping their games by trying to fit their games on one DVD and so not taking advantage of their tech... they'll all continue to make large texture rich games for both platforms, implying multiple discs on 360 and a nice big fat Blu-Ray on PS3.

Whether many here realise it or not, Blu-Ray size games and above are the future. Anything less won't be enough to lure people into upgrading next-gen.

You missed my point I think .

 

[RudeCurve]

Where's london-boy? Does he still post here under a different name?

 

[ShadowRunner]

100 GB, 8X Bu-Ray discs/drives are not so far. Sharp developed a new technology recently which will make such drives possible. http://www.physorg.com/news172481493.html

I hope this will be cheap enough until next generation consoles launch. From 2X (Playstation3) to 8X data rate will be increased from 72 Mb/s to 288 Mb/s. For comparison Xbox360s DVD drive has a data rate of 130 Mb/s (12X).

That article seems to be talking about write speed not read speed.

8x BluRay Readers are already easily available:
http://www.scan.co.uk/Products/LG-CH08LS10AUAR-8x-Blu-Ray-Reader16x-DVDR-8x-plusRW-6x-RW-5x-RAM-OEM

It should be much easier to obtain 8x read speed on quad layer disks than 8x write speed. It mite even be possible to read at 8x without a change to drive optics.

"In January 2007, Hitachi showcased a 100 GB Blu-ray Disc, consisting of four layers containing 25 GB each. Unlike TDK and Panasonic's 100 GB discs, they claim this disc is readable on standard Blu-ray Disc drives that are currently in circulation, and it is believed that a firmware update is the only requirement to make it readable to current players and drives.

In December 2008, Pioneer Corporation unveiled a 400 GB Blu-ray Disc (containing 16 data layers, 25 GB each) that will be compatible with current players after a firmware update. Its planned launch is in the 2009–10 time frame for ROM and 2010–13 for rewritable discs. Ongoing development is under way to create a 1 TB Blu-ray Disc as soon as 2013."

 

[Rolf N]

Yeah, Blu-ray data layers are at a much smaller depth from the surface than DVD data layers by design (which also necessitated the hard coating). It should be possible to scale the number of data layers upwards a bit without having to adjust intra-layer spacing.

German Wikipedia has a nice illustration on that issue.

 

[Prophecy2k]

Considering the current state of Nvidia and their historical dealing with Sony (on the RSX)... What do you think Sony will choose to do for their GPU on PS4?

I'd expect ATI to do MS' next xbox GPU, especially since the 360's GPU is such a beast and feature-wise really was ahead of its time.

Do you think Sony will opt for an off the shelf ATI solution this time around, or do something a bit wacky and wonderful like go for a LRB from Intel?

This I ponder with the greatest level of intrigue :smile:

 

[assen]

Considering the current state of Nvidia and their historical dealing with Sony (on the RSX)... What do you think Sony will choose to do for their GPU on PS4?

I'd expect ATI to do MS' next xbox GPU, especially since the 360's GPU is such a beast and feature-wise really was ahead of its time.

Do you think Sony will opt for an off the shelf ATI solution this time around, or do something a bit wacky and wonderful like go for a LRB from Intel?

This I ponder with the greatest level of intrigue :smile:

Console vendors won't have any problems sourcing the GPU from the same vendor, not anymore than they had any problems all licensing PowerPCs from IBM. So "MS has ATI, that leaves NVIDIA or Intel for Sony" thinking is a bit too simplistic.

 

[sunscar]

Console vendors won't have any problems sourcing the GPU from the same vendor, not anymore than they had any problems all licensing PowerPCs from IBM. So "MS has ATI, that leaves NVIDIA or Intel for Sony" thinking is a bit too simplistic.

I'm seeing everyone going ATI this time... I think both SONY and MS have been burned a little too badly to consider NV at this juncture, and more and more every day, LRB is starting to feel like a non-contender.

 

[TheChosenOne]

I'm seeing everyone going ATI this time... I think both SONY and MS have been burned a little too badly to consider NV at this juncture, and more and more every day, LRB is starting to feel like a non-contender.

But HAS Sony been burned by NVidia? I don't see what else NVidia could have offered Sony, in the time frame that they were given, that was as cheap, reliable, and able to be mass produced by the time PS3 entered production. RSX may not be perfect, but it does a reasonably good job in my opiniion.

I'm really interested to see which route Sony goes with the CPU...is there a future for the Cell Architecture?

I think (hope) that next generation consoles will be in the ballpark of 10x more computational power by 2012/2013. That would make way for some really nice looking games...I mean, I think even the games we have now look great! And I think this is due more to art and creative use of the hardware than anything.

 

[sunscar]

But HAS Sony been burned by NVidia? I don't see what else NVidia could have offered Sony, in the time frame that they were given, that was as cheap, reliable, and able to be mass produced by the time PS3 entered production. RSX may not be perfect, but it does a reasonably good job in my opiniion.

I'm really interested to see which route Sony goes with the CPU...is there a future for the Cell Architecture?

I think (hope) that next generation consoles will be in the ballpark of 10x more computational power by 2012/2013. That would make way for some really nice looking games...I mean, I think even the games we have now look great! And I think this is due more to art and creative use of the hardware than anything.

It's not that I think the RSX was a poor design choice, it's that TMK, Nvidia is pretty damned hard-headed about pricing for the parts they provide, and the last thing anybody needs or wants to see again is an over-priced box clinging to store shelves. It's bad for business.

The CPU as I see it right now is anybody's guess. I *do* think the CELL still has some life to it, but the field has changed since CELL was just a concept; today everybody has a multi-core CPU, GPUs have encroached, conquered and left, too. As it stands, PS4 could have CELL2.0, some Intel design (they're hard-headed on price, too, but I think they'd cave to leverage Larrabee), they may go for yet another custom IBM job, or something from AMD. We have a lot of options this coming round vs last, and I think it's going to come down to finding the sweet spot of price, long-term proffitability, performance and efficiency.

I think we could easily hit 10x performance, regardless. Another year from now we'll be looking at new video cards that *on their own* are much more powerful than that, and by the time the next generation of consoles actually hits, those parts will be budget bits by comparison. If the next generation starts in late 2012, and we actually get stuck with stock-ish GPUs and CPUs from late 2011, we'd still have something nearly twice as fast as a theoretical Radeon 6xxx in there, and any number of CPUs that beat the snot out of a Core i9, CELL, or any current AMD part. And that I feel could represent a budget-friendly box.