AMD should be able to produce an SOC for consoles in 2028 that matches a 4090 in rasterization. RT and AI are more questionable.
Predict: Next gen console tech (10th generation edition) [2028+]
- Thread starter RDGoodla
- Start date
Very awkward take. Corporate greed is always there. I’ve never not known it to not be there.
the math is being done, and one can look at it and see that the price point of 5pro is justified. The hardware in there justifies the cost to develop it. It is in alignment with other hardware out there at a significantly lower price point.
What it is not, however, in line with consumer disposable income, or rather wages have not caught up to the price increases we are seeing. That isn’t a Sony issue however.
Sony either sells this console at the price point where it’s worth its time and money ti invest in it, or it doesn’t release one at all, see MS.
The choice to purchase is still up to the consumer, there’s no entitlement here by consumers that they should have a right to a low cost console. MS didn’t see any market or value for it, so they didn’t even make one. Sony made one, but people want a price point that a lot of people would buy it.
But if something so powerful could be made for so cheap, don’t you agree that MS would have made one too?
It’s not about justification, it’s about understanding the underlying costs that drive this console to its super high price.
davis.anthony
Veteran
Console makers don't shop in the high-end market, they shop in the low-mid tier of hardware, and that's a big problem as that part of the GPU market hasn't seen as much gen-on-gen performances increases as the higher performance tiers.
5600XT = 100%
6600XT = +28%
7600XT = +45%
RTX 2060 = 100%
RTX 3060 = +16%
RTX 4060 = +38%
They may need to shop in the next performance tier up as it seams to get better gen-on-gen improvements.
5700XT = 100%
6700XT = +35%
7700XT = +65%
RTX 2070 = 100%
RTX 3070 = +53%
RTX 4070 = +87%
Nvidia does seem to offer better gen-on-gen performance increases in the mid-tier over AMD, and maybe that's something that Sony and Microsoft look at next generation as it would give them a higher performance lift (And likely better RT and access to better ML performance) over what AMD could likely offer them, but no doubt at a higher cost.
5600XT = 100%
6600XT = +28%
7600XT = +45%
RTX 2060 = 100%
RTX 3060 = +16%
RTX 4060 = +38%
They may need to shop in the next performance tier up as it seams to get better gen-on-gen improvements.
5700XT = 100%
6700XT = +35%
7700XT = +65%
RTX 2070 = 100%
RTX 3070 = +53%
RTX 4070 = +87%
Nvidia does seem to offer better gen-on-gen performance increases in the mid-tier over AMD, and maybe that's something that Sony and Microsoft look at next generation as it would give them a higher performance lift (And likely better RT and access to better ML performance) over what AMD could likely offer them, but no doubt at a higher cost.
MS probably don't want to loose $200 again by console sold. Which would happened if they had done a mid-gen console because they can't do cheap consoles like Sony for several reasons, the main being they can't plan to sell as many consoles as Sony.
But I think it's not only about hardware, but mainly about software. Say they miraculously release this year or next year a console with custom ML hardware and improved RT (say from RDNA4). How are they going to use that hardware? with what tools? Sony has been doing image reconstruction on a console (combined with exclusive hardware) since maybe a decade. But how MS is going to AI upscale their games on their console and on AMD GPUs? Both AMD and MS aren't ready for that. Sony clearly is as they labelled their tool Playstation SSR. That's in-house software they may or may not give to AMD.
Sony with Insomniac has mature and efficient tools to make great ray tracing reflections even using CBR for the reflections, labelled by many the best RT seen on any console game, which must not be a simple pipeline and is actually similar to Nvidia and the way they reconstruct some rays with AI. Sure directX has tools for RT too. But what about the efficiency of those tools? We already see a sizeable performance gap in games running on console showcasing hardware RT effects and this likely explains why none of their exclusive games display high quality RT running at 60fps like those Insomniac games. I see a big difference here, maybe unsurmontable for them because of the myriads of PC DirectX must run on.
And about tools I think this is the main reason many of their exclusive games have only a 30fps mode. The fact that they can patch a 60fps after in some games is a further proof that the problem is not the hardware, it's the development pipeline that is less efficient that at Sony.
This generation of AI upscaling and advanced RT is mainly about tools efficiency and maturity, not hardware and here MS can only wait years in order to work on that (are they?). Which is I think one of the reason they don't have anything to counter PS5 Pro. What have they done with the ML hardware already available in both Series console? This business is simply too difficult for them and they can't compete because they are, even with their trillion dollars in the bank, incompetent.
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davis.anthony
Veteran
Microsoft have had auto AI upscaling on Windows for months so likely have more hands on experience with AI based upscalers than Sony do.
None of which is AI based.
The same way Sony are.
Microsoft have had auto AI upscaling on Windows for months.
Do you think AMD aren't capable of creating their own AI upscaler?
CB RT reflections are nothing like ray reconstruction that Nvidia have, they're not even close to the same quality.
They seem to do doing OK so far on PC and there's loads of games with RT that perform better on Xbox than PS5.
Such as?
I would not call the RT quality in 60fps Insomniac games 'high quality'
The problem is Series-S.
Examples?
Once again, Microsoft have had AI upscaling on Windows for months.
Why do they have to counter PS5 Pro right now?
The best counter would to be wait for an actual sizeable jump in performance and offer more than the rather poor 45% Sony are offering.
Nintendo abandoned the traditional console market because they couldn't compete with Sony, so are Nintendo incompetent?
Well, looking at the pricing of Sony's midgen console and the lack of exclusive games, I would rather question how long the PS can be successful...
Ms has a lot of high-level game development that will be released soon. This keeps them safe. In contrast, what can Sony show? Where are their first-party titles? Or where is their setup for future models? They are lagging behind in many ways and one of the main proofs of this is their banally overpriced midgen console and their convenient business strategy.
MS will easily catch them grinding if they continue.
While I may agree with you on some points (lack of exclusives games), they just have released a potential GOTY with AstroBot and litteraly one the best critically received game on Playstation...ever. It's actually the best Playstation game ever reviewed on opencritic with 95 beating both Gow And TLOU! Thankfully for them they still have a few traditionnal japanese teams.
Tkumpathenurpahl
Veteran
How invisible to Xbox Series devs could MS make a DLSS-like?
Because as far as I see it, rather than leaving any existing Series owners in the lurch, MS would be better served by moving to 5nm, using whatever AMD architecture is at that node, and clocking accordingly. Nothing fancy. Keep the development cheap.
The Series S would be low enough TDP for a 10 inch tablet form factor, or laptop at worst. And the Series X would only be a touch smaller of a GPU than the PS5Pro, but could likely match it in terms of clockspeed. Maybe even only use perfect chips, and put the CU disabled ones in the cloud.
A 56CU RDNA4 GPU vs a 60CU RDNA4ish GPU would be basically dead even ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Because as far as I see it, rather than leaving any existing Series owners in the lurch, MS would be better served by moving to 5nm, using whatever AMD architecture is at that node, and clocking accordingly. Nothing fancy. Keep the development cheap.
The Series S would be low enough TDP for a 10 inch tablet form factor, or laptop at worst. And the Series X would only be a touch smaller of a GPU than the PS5Pro, but could likely match it in terms of clockspeed. Maybe even only use perfect chips, and put the CU disabled ones in the cloud.
A 56CU RDNA4 GPU vs a 60CU RDNA4ish GPU would be basically dead even ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Well I've definitely got concerns with both platforms, but Playstation still has way better momentum than Xbox, even if I dont think the gap is entirely deserved. The success of PS4 is still carrying them quite heavily, I think.
And concerning PS5 Pro pricing and all, it all really just makes me worry even more about Xbox's woes, because Playstation has less incentive to do better if their competition is fizzling out. We're gonna get the worst of both worlds.
Certainly Xbox has some potentially good upcoming games, but I'm not really sure how much this will help the Xbox console platform itself, since so many people are just gonna be asking when these games will come to Playstation. All this handing off of exclusivity is doing is making buying an Xbox console even less attractive.
Though to be fair, both these consoles' struggles are also making PC look like the clear best option possible.
This is exactly why I believe that the next Xbox will combine the advantages of the console and PC in one, and there will be the same games for both platforms, that is, there will be only one game version on PC and Xbox.Well I've definitely got concerns with both platforms, but Playstation still has way better momentum than Xbox, even if I dont think the gap is entirely deserved. The success of PS4 is still carrying them quite heavily, I think.
And concerning PS5 Pro pricing and all, it all really just makes me worry even more about Xbox's woes, because Playstation has less incentive to do better if their competition is fizzling out. We're gonna get the worst of both worlds.
Certainly Xbox has some potentially good upcoming games, but I'm not really sure how much this will help the Xbox console platform itself, since so many people are just gonna be asking when these games will come to Playstation. All this handing off of exclusivity is doing is making buying an Xbox console even less attractive.
Though to be fair, both these consoles' struggles are also making PC look like the clear best option possible.
Although some games are currently appearing on the competitor's consoles, this could easily be just part of a temporary strategy that lasts until MS builds its own game platform closely connected to Gamepass. Even if they communicate differently now for business reasons, the moment MS is able to reach ~100 million GP subscribers, they will only make a game for their own platform in a single format. Industry trends also aim for this goal.
Tkumpathenurpahl
Veteran
For a portable, IC makes the most sense due to the limits of LPDDR5/LPDDR5X or LPDDR6 for a future Strix Halo equivalent.
For a home console, it's trickier to guage, depending on whether they stick with a monolithic APU. If they have a GPU die attached by Infinity Fabric to a CPU die, incorporating IC during the same manufacturing process seems sensible. Although I'd expect more than 32MB in that case.
Anybody can make up numbers to suit their argument in this situation. Nobody has the real numbers.
But it doesn't take a genius to understand that the processor doesn't make up the bulk of the cost of the machine though, and that there isn't any way that it makes the machine cost 75% higher than the base system. Better memory will add another percent onto the costs, but still nothing that should approach 75% costlier as a whole.
You are proving my whole point, though. You simply wont accept the idea that a company would be greedy and charge more for something simply cuz they think they can get away with it.
No. Xbox had already seemed to make their stance on this pretty early on, which determined their whole strategy with Series S. And if you have been following the thoughts about mid gen upgraded consoles at all in recent years, you'd see there's plenty of reason to believe they simply weren't that justifiable in the first place. Even DF were pretty wishy washy in terms of the need or viability of such a product for quite a long time.
And you're doing just like Shifty Geezer, talking in extremes here. I never said 'so cheap'. You guys keep pushing this strawman that I'm making unreasonable demands or something, while deliberately ignoring an obvious middle ground. I think $599 with a disc drive would have been quite reasonable, for instance. Cuz I really hope you dont believe that disc drive costs like $100 to make in reality, too...
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They won’t get away with it. Fewer people will buy the Pro at $700 than at $600. Sony obviously knows that when setting the price.
The problem with your greed argument is that you’re assuming prices should be based on manufacturing cost. It’s a false assumption.
My assumption is that prices for consoles should be based on what will help them grow their install base the most. Basically, higher unit sales should be paramount over biggest margins. Very low margins should be entirely acceptable if that's what it takes to get more sales.
And yes, manufacturing cost is absolutely a huge part of what constitutes margins. If you're also talking R&D costs and costs for setting up manufacturing and all that stuff - it should be viewed as a one-time investment, one that can be slowly amortized over the course of the life of the product rather than anything they need to jack up prices heavily for on every unit. The aim is ultimately to sell software and subscriptions. And Playstation does that quite well, so there's no need to be so greedy and make the PS5 Pro more 'niche' than it needs to be.
But what Playstation hasn't been good at lately is responsible spending as a whole, and consumers should not have to be punished with higher costs for such a failure.
Hell I am still wishy washy on the product need and viability.
I find it a weird quirk that if consoles had some quality upscaling as found in DLSS... this thing would probably not even need to exist...
Seriously. FSR2 is just that level of 'not good enough' when using a lower base resolution and DLSS 'good enough' that it would have made a big difference in terms of the kind of image quality devs could achieve in Performance modes already.
Sony basically says that if you're not an employed adult in a rich western country then they're on their on own from now on ...
Easiest way to grow your install base is to sell consoles cheap and at a loss. There’s no secret there.
Well that’s the thing. Sony clearly has sales targets in mind and believe they can hit those targets at $700. What you’re arguing is that you think Sony should aim for higher sales numbers and lower per unit profit. Unless you have the numbers I don’t know how you make that claim which is arbitrary at best. Sony obviously has the numbers.
FSR is very good at creating a 4K image from 1440p, there is an example of this on a console. It's just that most games run at 1080p or lower... Few people actually saw this coming. Thanks for all of this to the introduction of UE5, which is too performance-demanding and overdesigned for this generation.
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