Predict: Next gen console tech (10th generation edition) [2028+]

[McHuj]

50% increase in consumer price, yes. But that's not what the real cost increase is. You keep making this assumption that these companies are not greedy and pass value onto consumers whenever they can, instead of realizing they've largely stopped doing anything resembling that in recent years and want to gouge for the highest margins possible, even at the cost of lower sales.

Sony has about a 7% net profit margin, AMD even less. That is very mediocre.

If they were ranking profits like many gamers believe that would be reflected in their stock appreciation, but it’s not because it isn’t true.

 

[QPlayer]

50% increase in consumer price, yes. But that's not what the real cost increase is. You keep making this assumption that these companies are not greedy and pass value onto consumers whenever they can, instead of realizing they've largely stopped doing anything resembling that in recent years and want to gouge for the highest margins possible, even at the cost of lower sales.

CPU's are proving that there isn't actually some massive and necessary cost increase that consumers must pay for for more performance or else these companies will lose money. Funny how when there's actual close competition, prices can stay somewhat reasonable, eh? Probably just a coincidence....

These companies can afford to lower prices/offer bigger improvements in performance per dollar, they're simply choosing not to. Maybe not on the same level as in the past, but we've not reached some point where they are simply unable to offer better performance per dollar at all anymore, and certainly nothing is justifying a 75% increase in total cost for PS5 Pro over the base PS5, especially after PS5 went through a pretty heavy round of cost decreases itself(which never got passed to the consumer).

I agree with that. Today a console equipped with a 7800xt GPU could be released for $800, tomorrow a console equipped with a Zen5 + 4070ti Super could be released for $1000. But they want to profit from the hardware.

 

[Seanspeed]

Sony has about a 7% net profit margin, AMD even less. That is very mediocre.

If they were ranking profits like many gamers believe that would be reflected in their stock appreciation, but it’s not because it isn’t true.

The net profit margin is for the whole business, not the hardware specifically. And Playstation has been doing some incredibly reckless spending in recent years, so it shouldn't be shocking that their overall profitability is down.

 

[Sonic]

The net profit margin is for the whole business, not the hardware specifically. And Playstation has been doing some incredibly reckless spending in recent years, so it shouldn't be shocking that their overall profitability is down.

Therefore it shouldn't be shocking that Sony will price the PS5 Pro at its launch price as long as it can retain sales and try to get higher margins from it.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

50% increase in consumer price, yes. But that's not what the real cost increase is. You keep making this assumption that these companies are not greedy and pass value onto consumers whenever they can,

Ummm, I literally said:

"Unless Sony have 50% margins on this thing"

More generally, we are not seeing a doubling of performance at the same price in CPUs or GPUs. I don't know what the cost:gains ratio is, but it's pretty abysmal versus the 2x at the same price of yesteryear. Even if all the companies are just gouging, they'll keep gouging. It's not like come PS6 they'll all decide to go easy on the wallets. Whatever they are charging, they'll keep charging, which means we'll have very expensive hardware if it even is capable of being that much faster.

 

[davis.anthony]

I wonder if this will mean Microsoft will start next generation a year earlier than Sony like they did with the Xbox 360 era.

I can't them releasing a 3rd SKU, but releasing a faster console and kicking off next gen early might be a possibility.

 

[snc]

I wonder if this will mean Microsoft will start next generation a year earlier than Sony like they did with the Xbox 360 era.

I can't them releasing a 3rd SKU, but releasing a faster console and kicking off next gen early might be a possibility.

Common rumour nextgen xbox 2026, ps6 2028

 

[Tkumpathenurpahl]

So, according to this article, TSMC's A16 process looks to begin production in 2H2026. Assuming there's truth to the rumoured PS5Pro clockspeed of 2.35GHz (in the same sense that the base model's is 2.23GHz) that clockspeed when transitioning from N5 to N3E, then to N2P, then to A16 would be 2.35*1.18*1.2*1.1=3.66036

So an upper estimate would effectively give us a 60CU GPU @ 3.66GHz meaning 28.11TF's. That including frame generation, PLSS, GDDR7, and some IC could still make for a fairly impressive upgrade over the PS5 Pro.

Architectural improvements should yield some performance improvements too. And chiplet caches ala RDNA3 open the possibility of a broader chiplet design for maximising wafer usage and reducing costs.

Whether A16 will be financially viable by the time the PS6 launches is difficult to tell though. Given how many games are still releasing on the PS4 & XB1, however, I'm not convinced of the need to rush into the next generation. The only thing lacking this generation is the fairly poor RDNA2 ray tracing.

Edit: altered my maths because I'd misread the table and included an additional "*1.1" so I've reduced the 4GHz figure to 3.66GHz, and the TF'S have accordingly lowered from 30.72.

 

[techuse]

Yeah, but it's 4 years of tech advance and an increase in cost. Unless Sony have 50% margins on this thing, better tech is making very little impact. We're almost at a point where every technological advance is a 25% increase in performance (optimistic) at a 50% increase in price. To get a 10x everything generational improvement you can actually see will cost the earth. You'll need 10 years of progress coupled with double the silicon. Plus PS5 Pro is only achieving its somewhat better on 4K rendering with the addition of ML upscaling. That's low-handing fruit now used, so not an option to advance PS5 Pro to PS6 in any meaningful way.

Diminishing returns are hitting hard, and will only hit harder for the next 5+ years of silicon. There's very little scope for anything new and better without a completely new tech to power it. Either that or $2000, 500W machines with silicon area measured in acres, not mm².

Half this console generation are still happy on last gen hardware! PS5 is going to be around a long time and there's not really anything to look forwards to, unless PS6 is 20 years out and somehow chip developments find somewhere new to go to do something over that 20 years. Otherwise everything shown on PS6 I've already seen in promissory videos. Racer RTX will be great, eventually, when the hardware exists that can actually run it years after it was shown and claimed to be running on hardware that exists.

Manufacturers have been able to sell an RX 6800, which is extremely similar to the GPU in a PS5 Pro, for as low as $300. There is no way Sony isnt profiting off a 700$ price tag. Certainly not 50%, but this is far from a loss leader.

 

[Seanspeed]

Ummm, I literally said:

"Unless Sony have 50% margins on this thing"

More generally, we are not seeing a doubling of performance at the same price in CPUs or GPUs. I don't know what the cost:gains ratio is, but it's pretty abysmal versus the 2x at the same price of yesteryear. Even if all the companies are just gouging, they'll keep gouging. It's not like come PS6 they'll all decide to go easy on the wallets. Whatever they are charging, they'll keep charging, which means we'll have very expensive hardware if it even is capable of being that much faster.

You dont need 50% margins to be able to have room to offer better value. Especially when the selling of the hardware is NOT the primary strategy of how you make money with consoles in the first place. Low margins should be entirely acceptable in order to build up a larger install base, who will increase software sales - the real source of money.

And no, we aren't seeing a doubling of performance for the same amount anymore, for sure. You keep talking in extremes, when all I'm saying is that while these companies clearly cant offer the same value improvements they used to, we are not at a wall where they cannot offer ANY at all, even if they'd love to trick us into believing otherwise.

There will also be a limit to what they can charge before it just ruins the whole console generation model altogether. If you're only selling a quarter of consoles at some excruciating $1000 price point, you will quickly face dire chicken-and-egg problems of install base and game releases.

They will simply need to accept lower margins on the hardware(or even just stomaching slight losses for longer) if they want to continue to do the traditional console model. Otherwise, we'll be in for a huge reset of how the gaming industry works, and not for the better.

 

[trinibwoy]

You dont need 50% margins to be able to have room to offer better value.

How much margin is acceptable?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

It's not just BOM.

You dont need 50% margins to be able to have room to offer better value. Especially when the selling of the hardware is NOT the primary strategy of how you make money with consoles in the first place. Low margins should be entirely acceptable in order to build up a larger install base, who will increase software sales - the real source of money.

That was how it used to be. However, the operating income on Sony's operations aren't great because of high costs. Imagine they sold PS5 at a loss. Would they get more revenue? Yes. Would they get more money and please the shareholders? No. Can we be sure? Pretty much, because if Sony would make more money heavily discounting the hardware based on predictions, they'd have done it.

If we look at how poor Sony's operating income was on large revenues of older, subsidised consoles, the new model is far more robust.

They will simply need to accept lower margins on the hardware(or even just stomaching slight losses for longer) if they want to continue to do the traditional console model. Otherwise, we'll be in for a huge reset of how the gaming industry works, and not for the better.

I feel that's very much on the cards.

 

[Jupiter]

What is the current estimate. Is my prediction from 2022 that the RTX 4090 will be faster than the next-generation console graphics card still realistic?

Of course, that also depends on when the generation arrives. When the consoles arrive in 2026 they will probably not faster than a RTX 4090. If the consoles do not arrive until 2028 that would be very, very late.

 

[Tkumpathenurpahl]

Manufacturers have been able to sell an RX 6800, which is extremely similar to the GPU in a PS5 Pro, for as low as $300. There is no way Sony isnt profiting off a 700$ price tag. Certainly not 50%, but this is far from a loss leader.

That's not really a fair comparison. It's more akin to a 7800 which, at first glance, is selling for £450.

So I agree that Sony are likely profiting heartily per unit, but that point would stand without the hyperbole of it containing a $300 GPU.

 

[Seanspeed]

How much margin is acceptable?

I cant give a specific figure, but there's no reason that single digits shouldn't be acceptable.

It's not just BOM.

That was how it used to be. However, the operating income on Sony's operations aren't great because of high costs. Imagine they sold PS5 at a loss. Would they get more revenue? Yes. Would they get more money and please the shareholders? No. Can we be sure? Pretty much, because if Sony would make more money heavily discounting the hardware based on predictions, they'd have done it.

If we look at how poor Sony's operating income was on large revenues of older, subsidised consoles, the new model is far more robust.

I feel that's very much on the cards.

I cant stress enough how much Playstation has tossed money down the toilet in recent years, or at least has been spending to an obscene degree on things they dont actually get much from in the end.
This idea that they couldn't possibly be making bad financial decisions is bizarre to me, cuz I dont think most people would make the same argument for Xbox. Of course they can mess up, and have short-sighted, short-term profit motivations over big picture perspective. Like I said a while ago, I would not be surprised at all if the beancounters got spoiled with the margins they achieved with the cheap-to-produce PS4 and then Playstation found there would be no way to try and convince those people to go backwards here and accept lower margins for PS5.

There's this absolutely bizarre attitude I see on this forum where corporate greed doesn't exist, and any high prices or price raises must always be reasonable and justified.

I'm not just blindly anti-corporations or anything. I'm not naive and understand that businesses cant just cater to the consumer above all else. But I dont advocate for businesses to take damaging positions, just ones that are a better balance between their own and consumer interests. There is absolutely a middle ground here that we've gotten away from in recent times with a lot of these companies.

 

[techuse]

That's not really a fair comparison. It's more akin to a 7800 which, at first glance, is selling for £450.

So I agree that Sony are likely profiting heartily per unit, but that point would stand without the hyperbole of it containing a $300 GPU.

Performance wise It will be almost identical to a 6800. It's almost the exact same GPU outside of the supposed RT improvements.

 

[Boss]

Common rumour nextgen xbox 2026, ps6 2028

The problem with Xbox is we know their release lineup for the next 2 years ish. None of that is going to make me want to buy any xbox related hardware. Xbox is in a 2 generation decline in terms of mindshare and I don't see how new hardware will help them tbf. Personally, I'm not buying any xbox hardware till the whole leadership changes. They're waffling right now and it's very obvious to see.

 

[techuse]

The problem for Microsoft is the reality of software development costs. Launching before Playstation will no longer gain them anything because all they will have to offer are minorly enhanced ports of games that are designed to run on older hardware. In prior generations, they could accompany an earlier launch with titles that demonstrated huge advances. Not even Microsoft 1st part would be willing to ditch cross gen, much less 3rd parties. There is honestly no future where Microsoft is competitive in hardware sales now that they have become multiplatform.

 

[McHuj]

What is the current estimate. Is my prediction from 2022 that the RTX 4090 will be faster than the next-generation console graphics card still realistic?

I hope not... If Nvidia performance progresses at the normal cadence, we should get 4090 performance in a 5070ti in 2025 and 4090 perf in a 6060 tier GPU around 2028 which should be the minimum for console performance and I think achievable for AMD by then. To me that's the minimum next gen, especially on the RT side.

Unless MS goes with an NVIDIA solution, I can't see how they will have a meaningfully more power console than the PS5 Pro if they launch by the end of 2026.

I think MS should consider building a small form factor PC as their next console. Save the money on the R&D work, build it out of laptop tier components to keep the cooling and power usage within a console spec, and come up with an awesome enclosure. Maybe it might even be more expensive than the PS5Pro, but I think that approach has a better chance than another Xbox.

 

[arandomguy]

What is the current estimate. Is my prediction from 2022 that the RTX 4090 will be faster than the next-generation console graphics card still realistic?

Of course, that also depends on when the generation arrives. When the consoles arrive in 2026 they will probably not faster than a RTX 4090. If the consoles do not arrive until 2028 that would be very, very late.

This might be an it depends on the comparison point answer.

I can see the RTX 4090 actually being as fast (or even faster) from a conventional stand point but I would think at the very least console GPUs then (and certainly Nvidia's PC GPUs) would be signficantly ahead in terms of feature set and likely future workloads.

You can kind of see something similar with the 1080ti vs. RTX 3060 or vs. the PS5 in that how the latter 2 compare against the 1080ti for 2024 games is very different than say 2016 games.