Next-gen launch strategising *Spawn

Discussion in 'Console Industry' started by Liandry, Jul 3, 2018.

  1. Liandry

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    I can tell what in shop where I work exclusive games not even 10% of all games what we sell. People a lot more interested in FIFA, NHL, NBA, GTA, Call of Duty, Battlefield and Need for Speed. I don't think in other countries situation is different.

    As I said earlier, 14Tf is 10X of Xbox One S, that is very good, but that not some big difference from Xbox One X, this console changed a lot. And nex gen consoles will be just like upgraded Xbox One X. (Maybe my theory about Xbox One Ultra and Xbox One Infinite is not far from truth). :-D So maybe in 2025 there will be next mid gen console what will really show big difference from Xbox One X.

    Then what is the point to release next gen consoles so soon? Developers can make games for current gen consoles, and publishers will get big profits because user base will continue to grow. At some point Sony and Microsoft even can stop manufacture games for Xbox One and PS4, (but games will be made fro them also), and make big price drop for Xbox One X and PS4 Pro, and extend this generation for some 2 years, and release new consoles in november 2022 or even in march 2023.
     
  2. Liandry

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    I don't think X is unbalanced, because almost all aditional power goes to 4K, and a little of power for some better effects. Games are the same as on Xbox One, and don't need more CPU power.

    Math is math, and 14TF GPU can't make big difference from 6TF, in same resolution 4K. Situation a little bit similar to Switch. In docked mode it have twice power of Xbox 360, but a lot more advanced GPU, so there is difeerence, better graphics, (not a lot better but still better), and twice resolution. But switch also have 4GB of RAM. And second but, Xbox 360 GPU is DX9, Switch GPU is DX12. And next gen consoles GPUs if these consoles will be released in 2020-2021 will be maybe DX13. So not so big difference compared to current gen consoles.
     
  3. vipa899

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    Yes that perhaps makes sense, its just that the people i know (family and friends) bought their ps4 cause of particular games, those were exclusive to Sonys platform. They dont play anything other on it cause the cross plat games usually do better on pc or xone x. But you got a point there COD is certainly more played then god of war.

    Then again Sweden seems to be pc-gaming oriented quit much maybe more then others.

    Nobody is forced to buy the pro or x, all games are compatible on base models too.
     
  4. Shifty Geezer

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    You're not understanding how the base performance affects games. When a console is launched, PC is better. Over the following years, PC is much more powerful, but games only marginally so because they still target the low end. Features introduced in later DX versions don't get used because games still target lower tier DX levels on consoles and older PCs. When a new console generation comes, devs start afresh with the latest technologies. It's not hardware power that drives generational advances in games, but hardware and software combined.

    That's true of every console generation ever. The reason to start afresh is because what you can produce on the new hardware is superior to what gamers are used to on their old consoles. And even if next gen isn't much different from XB1X in terms of specs 1) XB1X isn't being targeted with exclusives, so it isn't achieving its full potential. 2) Most gamers aren't gaming on XB1X and are waiting for more powerful machines, so a machine only 2x more powerful than XB1X is still a generation advance on their XB1S/PS4 and worth upgrading to.

    Edit: on the matter of flops. XB1 was only 3.3x as many Flops as PS3. Is XB1 not a clear generational advance? Hopefully that sufficiently illustrates that the numbers aren't representative of what's on screen, and it's the tech (hardware power, hardware features, and how software uses that power and features) and how it's used that defines a generational advance and creates better games people will want to buy new hardware for.
     
    #4 Shifty Geezer, Jul 3, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2018
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  5. goonergaz

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    He's not saying the games sell more he's saying they shift the boxes (or make people decide PS over XB) rather than the power.

    Going to have to disagree, you can't just put a Ferrari engine in an ford and expect the same performance, it doesn't work like that...it's the sum of all the parts and clearing bottlenecks.
     
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  6. borntosoul

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    Liardry has a point, as we get more powerful machines the visual differences between coming generations are going to be smaller and smaller unless there is a ground breaking tech that changes the ball game- or we would have longer life cycles which is s what l believe is the only answer atm.
     
  7. Shifty Geezer

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    The point that next-gen needs to be sufficiently different to get people to upgrade is valid.

    The point that 2x XB1X isn't different enough and we have to wait until we get 8x XB1X performance isn't. The base reference is XB1S/PS4, as that's what users are going to upgrade from. And a 2020 console with 14 TF etc of modern tech with modern software solutions will be a sufficient advance on XB1S/PS4 for people to want to upgrade, I think. There's also the possibility of a mid-gen refresh in 2023 if people don't move en masse to 2020 consoles.
     
  8. Picao84

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    The ground breaking tech is already here: VR.
     
  9. Shifty Geezer

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    VR is an expensive niche that isn't going to sell a next generation of devices.
     
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  10. Silent_Buddha

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    I think companies are going to face an increasing tough decision as time goes on.

    Either you...
    • Commit to releasing at consistent X intervals.
    • Wait until tech is sufficiently advanced to produce dramatic improvements in visual quality
      • This means each generation is going to be longer than the previous generation as technology has slowed significantly.
        • Storage has basically stalled.
        • Memory is seeing advancement but it comes at a large price. Choose either speed or capacity, it's going to be difficult getting both.
        • CPU shows minor gains.
        • GPU advancement is slowing.
    For example, I don't believe we'll see another generational leap similar to PS3/X360 -> PS4/XBO in the future unless generations stretch to 10-12 years or more (from base PS4/XBO). Alternatively, we could see it if the price of consoles dramatically increases to allow for more powerful hardware to be used, but that would also likely shrink the console gaming market.

    This all may change if we see a dramatic change in how the semiconductor industry operates (move to something other than silicon wafers, for example).

    Regards,
    SB
     
    #10 Silent_Buddha, Jul 3, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2018
  11. DSoup

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    This is a challenge of a generation-less strategy. Without the technical break of a new console base and gamers being driven to buy new hardware to play new games, will the number of people who chose to not to upgrade cause more stagnation and slow technical progress? If PS5 and Xbox 4 are more powerful versions of PS4 and XBO and most of the user base chose not to upgrade, then devs are stymied and will have to remain targeting those 2013 hardware specifications which will hold games back.

    Clean-break new generations, while seemingly consumer-hostile, actually promote a health constantly moving market. Generation-less also runs the risk of one manufacturer/platform ending up utterly and impossibly dominant where people build up huge libraries where starting over almost becomes unthinkable.
     
  12. Silent_Buddha

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    I disagree. First off, the 2013 consoles would be a non-factor in this discussion. The only relevant consoles would be the 2016/2017 consoles. Remember only one previous console "generation" would require support. This retains the 6-8 year traditional console cycle game support requirements. In theory a developer could choose to support even older consoles but only the smallest of development studios (predominantly indie studios) will do this...just like what happens on PC.

    A rolling generation strategy allows development to go either bottom up or top down. You either design around the base console and scale up or you design around the new console and scale down. Both strategies are viable.

    Some companies (EA, Activision, UBIsoft, etc.), including the console holders would take a top down approach. Make the game for the top tier console and scale it down to the 3-4 year old console. That preserves EVERYTHING the current generation strategy has, except iterates much faster. Large AAA developers feed off of making their game look the best it can look, it's all part of the marketing. They are also the only ones that can afford to attempt to exploit a new generation as that is extremely costly, especially at the beginning of a generation when multiplatform engines are mature WRT to the newest generation of hardware.

    Doing this also makes development much easier for smaller studios who don't have to risk going bankrupt every time a new generation comes out as the player base is reset. Smaller developers are much more reliant on large player bases where they can appeal to a niche crowd and still do relatively well. They would go with a bottom up approach and scale things up for the newest "generation" if they can afford to.

    In other words,
    • Going top down means everything is exactly the same as traditional console hard break generations. You target the latest console hardware and then scale down.
      • Everything released on console in 2013 - 2016/2017 can run on hardware sold back in 2009-2010 which would have been the hypothetical base of a previous rolling generation console.
      • AAA developers will all predominantly go this route. You can see signs of this with Starfield (Bethesda) and Cyberpunk (CDPR borderline AAA/High A) where both are targeting next generation console hardware capabilities.
        • Basically this is what CDPR did with the Witcher 3, except the PS3/X360 architectures were so dissimilar that they wouldn't scale things down enough. Having only 1/16th the memory was going to preclude anything from being easily scaled back regardless of differences in hardware architectures. However, it scales down just fine to much older hardware than a 2009-2010 console would have used.
    • Going bottom up means smaller developers are less at risk as they can continue to leverage the development pipeline and tools.
      • Interestingly this is how all the cross gen titles at the PS4/XBO launch approached things. Target PS3/X360 and scale up for PS4/XBO. Again, only 1/16th the memory of current gen. consoles was likely a large factor.
    Except it doesn't. It's actively hostile to smaller development studios. Each hard generation break puts smaller studios at risk of going out of business as they can't easily leverage their existing engines and coding base. As well, as stated above, they now face a choice of staying on the older platform which will receive almost no marketing or the newer platform that doesn't have a large enough install base for them to comfortably draw niche users to their games.

    That is the complete antithesis of a healthy constantly moving market. It's also why up until the advent of the current generation with it's similarities to PC architecture that many smaller previously console only developers were abandoning consoles in favor of PC development and/or embracing PC as a way to stay in business as they knew they didn't have to deal with a constantly resetting hardware platform.

    Digital distribution was also key in allowing smaller development studios to survive, but that's only just starting to become the predominant distribution method on console. The wonderful Noclip Warframe documentaries talks about how hard it was for non-AAA studios during the PS3/X360 era.

    Regards,
    SB
     
    #12 Silent_Buddha, Jul 3, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2018
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  13. BRiT

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    Fall of 2021 (for $399).
     
  14. Shifty Geezer

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    This sounds like forests where natural forest fires are part and parcel of their long-term health. Is used to be they were seen as bad, but now the value to the ecosystem is recognised.
     
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  15. MrFox

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    I am worried the existence of mid-gen will have caused the current gen to linger. If next gen comes too soon, the cross-gen period will last a very long time, and engines and game design will still need to port well on the weak cpu, limiting some game ideas.

    Next gen must enable better game engines, new paradigms, otherwise they might as well just make a Pro2 with mandatory bc/fc. It needs a rapid adoption to warrant games targeting it as the base system... and it needs convincing games for rapid adoption. (that's the first parties job).

    So they have to make sure cross-gen ports are easy and simple to test across the range, since cross-gen will be important for a while. It should be easy with x86/amd, same apis, same services. Then it can be a clean break as long as there is BC/boost-mode. We get must-have titles quickly from 1st parties, and 3rd parties can avoid the transition pain at launch. Up to each studio to choose when they have an advantage to move on to next-gen only.

    So, 2020 on 7nm+ and designing the SoC to keep a reasonable h/w compatibility. Mid-gen on 3nm in 2024?

    That's for sony, not sure if MS want to start making xbox-branded PCs or something. Nintendo exist in a world of their own and almost impervious to competition.
     
    #15 MrFox, Jul 3, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2018
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  16. DSoup

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    For this discussion but this discussion doesn't reflect that for many people, the console they just bought, which could be an PS4 Slim or Xbox One S, could be the 'last generation'. You're seemingly adopting a position that Pro and X are a distinct separate generation when neither manufacturer acknowledges their highest specification tier console in this way. :nope:

    Greenberg: For us, we think the future is without console generations; we think that the ability to build a library, a community, to be able to iterate with the hardware -- we're making a pretty big bet on that with Project Scorpio. We're basically saying, "This isn't a new generation; everything you have continues forward and it works."​
     
  17. Xbat

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    End of 2019 and the difference will easily be the same as Xbox 360 to Xbox 1. People underplaying the difference between a 1.3 Tflop machine and a 12 TFlops machine with 500gbps + memory bandwidth and much better CPU. It's the whole Xbox X thing throwing people. The Xbox X is a gimped console because everything has to run on X one.

    For me there will be little difference between a 12 TFlops machine and a 14 TFlops and is why I think one should come out 2019, a year headstart will be much more important than 2 TFlops in my opinion.
     
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  18. ultragpu

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    14 tf $449 fall 2020. We get a massive leap in graphics from the base consoles and the cost isn't too over the top either. Also just in time for AAA exclusive launch titles to be ready, maybe Cyber punk too? Lock it!
     
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  19. dobwal

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    I hope they do linger. I just bought an X and I don’t want to be seduced by the new next gen hardware in another year or two. I still need to get my hands on the Pro and all the first party Sony titles that will keep me busy for a while.

    I don’t feel like the 8 year length of last gen was intolerable by any measure. And I wouldn’t expect it, if this gen extended out to 2021, to cause any real consternation.

    It would be nice to get our traditional nitty gritty deep dive next gen hardware discussion going with some bonafide leaks. But I don’t think next gen should be rushed for those anxious to pull out their “secret sauce” jokes. LOL
     
    #19 dobwal, Jul 5, 2018
    Last edited: Jul 5, 2018
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  20. Xbat

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    Yup, it's only this that goes against a 2019 launch. I feel they can launch 2019 and market it by saying it's the place to play Ghost of Tsushima and The Last of Us 2 at native 4k locked 60fps same with all the third party games releasing that time.
     
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