Predict: Next gen console tech (10th generation edition) [2028+]

[cheapchips]

Microsoft have signed a massive deal with Intel Foundry. It's far too big to be for the next Xbox, but it's fun speculate that it could include some Xbox chips.

Intel's 2025 18A process should be competitive, if judged by the hype Intel are putting out and the shade TSMC are throwing at it.

 

[QPlayer]

Intel lands foundry deal for custom Microsoft processor — 18A process tech to be used for 'very exciting platform shift'

Intel Foundry wins big with Microsoft.

www.tomshardware.com

Ok, the next Xbox will have Intel.

 

[Frenetic Pony]

Intel lands foundry deal for custom Microsoft processor — 18A process tech to be used for 'very exciting platform shift'

Intel Foundry wins big with Microsoft.

www.tomshardware.com

Ok, the next Xbox will have Intel.

This is for a Microsoft designed custom chip, not a console APU. It's been rumored for a long time that MS have been working on a custom ARM ISA server chip of some sort, so it's probably that.

 

[Mitchings]

Even though it's incredibly unlikely, I was thinking an Intel Ultra/Arc APU would be quite the curveball.

 

[Seanspeed]

Possible, but I doubt Sony would allow their BC to be so inconsistent and buggy. We know even when using AMD after PS4 they still needed to do tons of hardware modifications (according to Cerny) and tests to make PS4 BC possible on PS5.

I mean, this is what they claimed, but I'd bet it was a whole lot more 'out the box working' than these words suggest. The fact that they basically had 100% perfect BC on Day 1 suggests this was not really any big effort at all.

And the idea that there were any 'hardware modifications' for this is clearly nonsense. Sony simply wanted to sound like this was some big effort to make it seem like they really cared.

I swear that whole 'Road to PS5' video is so much ridiculous PR, not that it shouldn't have been fairly obvious even when it came out. But because most people didn't know better at the time, it was treated like PS5 was this hyper custom, insanely complex system that only a genius like Cerny could think up rather than the pretty standard off-the-shelf IP chip it actually was.

 

[iroboto]

The fact that they basically had 100% perfect BC on Day 1

If I recall correctly, Pretty sure it was not 100% and I believe some titles on ps4 did have issues on ps5. But for the sake of discussion, I would agree it’s pretty close to 100%.

I mean, the PS5 is 36CU. Whihc is the same as the 4Pro. Which is doubled the PS4. There may be an argument that if they wanted a larger chip like 48CU or so, they couldn’t do it because of compatibility issues. I dunno. Yea It’s all PR, but sometimes there are nuggets of useful information in there.

Can you play PS4 games on PS5? PlayStation backwards compatibility | Radio Times

Backwards compatibility on the PS5 explained - the games that won't play and which ones will. Plus, how to transfer your games and saves from PS4 to PS5.

www.radiotimes.com

 

[Kaotik]

Intel lands foundry deal for custom Microsoft processor — 18A process tech to be used for 'very exciting platform shift'

Intel Foundry wins big with Microsoft.

www.tomshardware.com

Ok, the next Xbox will have Intel.

Seriously, and not just this quoted post but past few pages? Microsoft has literally confirmed they're going AMD last September already.

 

[Janne Kylliö]

Seriously, and not just this quoted post but past few pages? Microsoft has literally confirmed they're going AMD last September already.

What? No they have not!

 

[Janne Kylliö]

Even though it's incredibly unlikely, I was thinking an Intel Ultra/Arc APU would be quite the curveball.

I believe all Arc GPUs so far have been produced by TSMC, and I believe this will be true for Battlemage as well. Something about TSMC libraries being more suitable for GPU design, while Intel stuff so far has been made for CPU design? I would assume that Intel will develop their design libraries to be more suitable for GPU design in the future, though. Maybe Celestial will be produced with an Intel process?

 

[Kaotik]

What? No they have not!

Yes they did, when they accidentally spilled documents meant only for court hearings

 

[Janne Kylliö]

Yes they did, when they accidentally spilled documents meant only for court hearings
View attachment 10863

Yes, and those were old slides. And there were no tech decisions presented in those slides, just options.

And since those slides also had next gen console to be released in calendar year 2028, and because now we have rumours that the next gen Xbox will arrive in 2026, the plans must have changed direction.

 

[Kaotik]

Yes, and those were old slides. And there were no tech decisions presented in those slides, just options.

And since those slides also had next gen console to be released in calendar year 2028, and because now we have rumours that the next gen Xbox will arrive in 2026, the plans must have changed direction.

Only the timeframe should be wrong, especially considering both Zen 6 and Navi 5 being old by 2028. Zen 6 should be launching in late'ish 2025, Navi 5 probably earlier 2025

 

[Janne Kylliö]

Only the timeframe should be wrong, especially considering both Zen 6 and Navi 5 being old by 2028. Zen 6 should be launching in late'ish 2025, Navi 5 probably earlier 2025

Well, the truth is that we don't really know how up to date these slides were in the first place.

 

[Globalisateur]

I mean, this is what they claimed, but I'd bet it was a whole lot more 'out the box working' than these words suggest. The fact that they basically had 100% perfect BC on Day 1 suggests this was not really any big effort at all.

And the idea that there were any 'hardware modifications' for this is clearly nonsense. Sony simply wanted to sound like this was some big effort to make it seem like they really cared.

I swear that whole 'Road to PS5' video is so much ridiculous PR, not that it shouldn't have been fairly obvious even when it came out. But because most people didn't know better at the time, it was treated like PS5 was this hyper custom, insanely complex system that only a genius like Cerny could think up rather than the pretty standard off-the-shelf IP chip it actually was.

Cerny said in his presentation the bulk of modifications was because of BC. Road to PS5 was no PR. All he promised was accomplished in just a few exclusives games, and unfortunately not in 99% of multiplatform games. The problem comes from cross-gen (PC - Xbox - PS4) development.

Just in time streaming is in Demon's souls and Insomniac games (that's facts as it's according to interviews we have, just in time streaming is probably in others games like naughty dog remasters and some Square games, but we have no interviews for those ones). Quasi instant loadings (<2sec) in those exclusives and few more. RT in even more games including launch games at 60fps and in multiplatform games.

PS5 has plenty custom units still not found in any other hardware: the whole I/O unit, ID Buffer, cache scrubbers and likely a few others minor stuff already there on Pro for BC (similar to ID buffer).

 

[Nesh]

Yeah Sony is very much tied to AMD hardware for BC. Also likely financially. I wonder what's the case with XBOX.

But there is something else at the same time that needs to be considered. AMD is behind the curve by a difference in AI image reconstruction and RT, while NVIDIA seems to be making strides in new tech and improvements. AI image and framerate reconstruction with next gen RT implementation are super important for a console that needs to bring out the best possible IQ and performance at low cost and energy consumption. Without AI, expensive brute forcing is the other solution, which is a no go solution.

If current consoles for example had access to NVIDIA's tech, we would have been getting higher framerates at higher reconstructed resolutions on consoles, but they are struggling with RT and AMD's solutions are bringing mixed, barely noticeable or less than ideal results on consoles

 

[Nesh]

I swear that whole 'Road to PS5' video is so much ridiculous PR, not that it shouldn't have been fairly obvious even when it came out. But because most people didn't know better at the time, it was treated like PS5 was this hyper custom, insanely complex system that only a genius like Cerny could think up rather than the pretty standard off-the-shelf IP chip it actually was.

Er, I doubt this was the impression. The impression was that the PS5 was built around very high efficiency.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I swear that whole 'Road to PS5' video is so much ridiculous PR, not that it shouldn't have been fairly obvious even when it came out. But because most people didn't know better at the time, it was treated like PS5 was this hyper custom, insanely complex system that only a genius like Cerny could think up rather than the pretty standard off-the-shelf IP chip it actually was.

It wasn't PR. The presentation was intended as a reveal for developers at GDC. It wasn't ever targeting the general population and wasn't in any way trying to relate to the public. It was simply Cerny explaining the architecture and thinking behind it, focussing on the customisations because "It's a ZEN/RDNA AMD SOC" doesn't need any explaining.

 

[Tkumpathenurpahl]

I wonder if chiplets will be a necessity for PS6 to even be cost-viable at this point..

If they're gunning for 2028 I could see something like a Zen6/7 CPU Complex paired with either 2 54/60CU GPU chiplets or even 3 36/40CU GPU chiplets (RDNA6?). All connected on AMD's Infinity Fanout Links.

Another advantage is they could mix nodes if the fab space isn't available. For eg. the CPU Complex could be on N3P while the GPU Chiplets could be on N2P, or visa versa.

Plus, moving forward it'll leave more wriggle room for economically optimal pairings on minor refreshes as well as slims/pros etc. Rather than having to go all in on one node there'll be a variety of middle ground options.

Yeah, I'm really curious to see what success AMD has with chiplet GPU's. So far we've only seen chiplets used for cache.

If AMD are successful, I'd expect a base SoC for PlayStation to ensure straightforward BC, paired with one or more GPU and cache chiplets. So, a 36CU SoC if there's no PS5Pro, or a 5xCU SoC if the Pro rumours are correct.

There may be an argument that if they wanted a larger chip like 48CU or so, they couldn’t do it because of compatibility issues. I dunno.

I never quite understood where this notion came from. More CU's was never an issue for the PS4 Pro running PS4 games, and isn't an issue for the PS5 running pre-2016 PS4 games.

Cerny spoke about each CU becoming larger and more complex with the move from GCN to RDNA, and Sony were quite clear that there was a focus on ensuring the PS5 could be manufactured and assembled relatively inexpensively.

36CU's was the minimum number of CU's they could use while ensuring easy PS4Pro BC.

 

[Lurkmass]

Yeah Sony is very much tied to AMD hardware for BC. Also likely financially. I wonder what's the case with XBOX.

But there is something else at the same time that needs to be considered. AMD is behind the curve by a difference in AI image reconstruction and RT, while NVIDIA seems to be making strides in new tech and improvements. AI image and framerate reconstruction with next gen RT implementation are super important for a console that needs to bring out the best possible IQ and performance at low cost and energy consumption. Without AI, expensive brute forcing is the other solution, which is a no go solution.

If current consoles for example had access to NVIDIA's tech, we would have been getting higher framerates at higher reconstructed resolutions on consoles, but they are struggling with RT and AMD's solutions are bringing mixed, barely noticeable or less than ideal results on consoles

A part of the reason why AMD is able to offer both BC and relatively high perf/cost to console vendors is that they don't go about heavily subscribing their hardware implementations for unproven features like ray tracing. Elegant hardware designs attempt to conserve unused hardware logic as much as possible while establishing fundamentals that will withstand the passage of time ...

Just a couple days ago, a new graphically high-end UE5 game released on early access likely without any hardware lumen support! AMD are trying to look past a potential future where things like hardware ray tracing may become obsolete but if others want their partners to chase fashionable whims, they shouldn't act surprised if their current library gets discarded (no BC) or aren't impressed with the technical gains upon the arrival of the next generation because of accumulated technical debt in hardware design ...

 

[iroboto]

never quite understood where this notion came from. More CU's was never an issue for the PS4 Pro running PS4 games, and isn't an issue for the PS5 running pre-2016 PS4 games.

It was a butterfly setup IIRC. When running BC they shut off half the GPU. Easiest most straight forward way to do BC. They didn’t have enhanced games IIRC; Games that were patched but could run at higher settings.

As far as I expect, it’s the same thing for PS4 BC on PS5. With the exception of “game boost” titles that have been modified to be some quasi enhanced mode. I think Xbox does something similar in terms of quasi emulation.