predict how actual Xbox Next will differ from leaked specs

[Alejux]

You seem to be forgetting that a lot of the geometric details in UE3's models are stored in the textures, via parallax mapping. I'm not sure you could just reduce the texture resolution and not have a big impact on the overall quality of the characters and other objects.

It wouldn't even matter. In this case, systems like the X2 will be able to pump enough polys to lower the normal mapping resolution and just use higher detailed poly models. The X2 will have poly compression too.

Now THIS I agree with you. I expect to see Ruby-esque characters (80,000+ polys) on these next gen consoles. At least in some games that have a more controlled environment. But I'm not sure how the UE3 engine will fit with that.

 

[Inane_Dork]

GamesIndustry is only adding to the confusion, unfortunately.

What they mean is that the actual hardware will not be present and full details will not be released, but anyone who believed that was dumb. They still think it will be referenced.

 

[AzBat]

GamesIndustry is only adding to the confusion, unfortunately.

What they mean is that the actual hardware will not be present and full details will not be released, but anyone who believed that was dumb. They still think it will be referenced.

http://www.microsoft.com/billgates/speeches/2001/01-06ces.asp

I think that's enough of a precedent to prove that it wasn't such a dumb assumption after all. But that's just me. I was hopeful that more details would be released and it's possible that still might happen. But I don't think I ever said it was for sure.

Tommy McClain

 

[Polarbear53]

Would using more shaders and less textures also help on using less ram, because it would be little programs instead of pictures?

What if they did like 3" hard drives with a single platter? Less material, smaller size. Although it would still cost a bit, but it's gotta save money over 3 platters.


And don't flash drives have limits on how many times they can be written to?

 

[Megadrive1988]

my predictions for polygon counts in nextgen console games


highly detailed models like in 1on1 fighting games, capital ships, etc: in the low (perhaps mid) hundreds of thousands of polygons

average models where 4-10 of them are on screen: in the middle to upper tens of thousands of polys

lower detailed models where lots of them are on screen: under 10,000 polys

 

[jvd]

I'm sure in the millions it will drop down to the sub 40$ range and in 2 or 3 years before they phase out 120 gig drives all together they will be 10$ to include .

That's completely nuts. The harddrive business is already very unprofitable, there's a reason almost every manufacturer of harddrives has either gone out of business or been bought up by a competitor. Margins are near razor-thin already. Ten dollars for a 120-gig drive? You're crazy. These are high-precision instruments, a swiss watch is crude in comparison!

Mabye the 500$ version could have a writable hd-dvd drive. I know many people who would pay 500-600$ for that in 2005 .

Sorry, but no you don't.

Any company that has a contract for x amount of units can sell it cheaper than if they were trying to get rid of them . The reason why many hardrive companys have gone out of busniess is because the speed at which drives change capacity , cache , rpm ,and interface changes . If a company comes up to u and says we want 10 million in the first year of its life with up to 30 million or more (figuring at least a 10 million unit growth for the xenon) and that company will lower thier price to get the contract .


And yes , I know a ton of people who would buy a 500$ xenon with hd dvd writable features and tivo features in 2005 . You get the top of the line or a top of the line video game system (if ps3 is released in 2005) with a next generation dvd format and tivo functions .

 

[Megadrive1988]

The Xbox fillrate was 932 MP/s, - and the geforce 3 ( released earlier ) was 1GPixel/s.

The NV2A had 8 pipes and a 233mhz clock frequency, which gives 932 megaPIXELS/s and 1864 megaTEXELS/s. People constantly confuse this two terms.

BTW, geforce3 has 8 pipes and a 200 mhz clock frequency, which gives 800 mpixels/s and 1600 mtexels/s. And NV2A had 2 vertex shaders, so it was a underclocked gf4 ti.

all the NV20s: GeForce 3, GeForce3 Ti200, Ti500, the Xbox NV2A, and all the GeForce4 Tis had 4 pixel pipelines and 2 TMUs per pipe. so its 8 TMUs not 8 pixel pipelines. the NV2A and GeForce4 Tis had 2 Vertex Shader pipelines.

you were correct on the pixel rate and texel rate, but you confused people by saying 8 pipelines, when pipelines usualy refer to pixel pipes, not TMUs.

 

[one]

http://www.microsoft.com/billgates/speeches/2001/01-06ces.asp

I think that's enough of a precedent to prove that it wasn't such a dumb assumption after all. But that's just me. I was hopeful that more details would be released and it's possible that still might happen. But I don't think I ever said it was for sure.

Very offtopic, but those Xbox-promotion video comments from the CES 2001 ROCKED me

THE ROCK: Thank you. Thank you, Bill. Thank you, Seamus.

Now, at first glance to the untrained eye it just might appear that The Rock and Bill Gates don't have a heck of a lot in common. Well, The Rock is here to say that that can't be farther from the truth. See, the fact of the matter is The Rock and Bill Gates, we have a lot in common. Both The Rock and Bill Gates stand atop their respective industries.

(Applause.)

THE ROCK: Both The Rock and Bill Gates are best selling authors. And both The Rock and Bill Gates are known worldwide for their vast array of catch phrases. For example, The Rock has, know your role and shut your mouth, lay it the smack it down, and of course, the world renowned, if you smell what The Rock is cooking. And, Bill Gates, you have some pretty cool catch phrases, as well. What are some of your favorites?

MR. GATES: My favorite is probably writing hardcore C to create slick, tight code.

(Applause.)

Could he predict all the worm fiasco and Windows XP SP2?

 

[akira888]

It wouldn't even matter. In this case, systems like the X2 will be able to pump enough polys to lower the normal mapping resolution and just use higher detailed poly models. The X2 will have poly compression too.

The amount of data needed to store a vertex is easily an order of magnitude higher than it is to store one texel, assuming that you're using something other than raw storage for the texture map. If there's a lack of RAM on a machine to represent some topological detail using normal mapping, the problem will only be made several times worse if geometry is used to represent it.[/quote]

 

[Inane_Dork]

http://www.microsoft.com/billgates/speeches/2001/01-06ces.asp

I think that's enough of a precedent to prove that it wasn't such a dumb assumption after all. But that's just me.

No specs. Not everything was shown then.

 

[akira888]

all the NV20s: GeForce 3, GeForce3 Ti200, Ti500, the Xbox NV2A, and all the GeForce4 Tis had 4 pixel pipelines and 2 TMUs per pipe.

As did the high end NV3X (GFFX) chips, the NV15 (Geforce 2), and the NV10 (Geforce 256) did as well although for some reason that's never been discovered they're limited to taking a single-cycle trilinear sample. I'd guess bandwidth was the reason; NV10 was launched with SDR-SDRAM and was perhaps the most bandwidth-starved card ever.

No specs. Not everything was shown then.

Microsoft had already released the preliminary specifications at this point, in fact they did so 20 months prior to launch day. (March 00 versus November 01)

 

[AlNom]

I expect to see Ruby-esque characters (80,000+ polys) on these next gen consoles. At least in some games that have a more controlled environment. But I'm not sure how the UE3 engine will fit with that.

Does anyone know the polycounts on those DOA/Ninja Gaiden,or Tekken 4/5, or Soul Cal II models? Rough guesses?

Microsoft had already released the preliminary specifications at this point, in fact they did so 20 months prior to launch day. (March 00 versus November 01)

How accurate were those specs, btw (curious)

 

[Wunderchu]

I expect to see Ruby-esque characters (80,000+ polys) on these next gen consoles. At least in some games that have a more controlled environment. But I'm not sure how the UE3 engine will fit with that.

Does anyone know the polycounts on those DOA/Ninja Gaiden,or Tekken 4/5, or Soul Cal II models? Rough guesses?

Microsoft had already released the preliminary specifications at this point, in fact they did so 20 months prior to launch day. (March 00 versus November 01)

How accurate were those specs, btw (curious)

each character in DOA3 for Xbox has ~20,000 polygons (source: http://www.gamespot.com/xbox/action/deadoralive3/preview_2802632.html )




So, I agree with Megadrive1988;

my predictions for polygon counts in nextgen console games


highly detailed models like in 1on1 fighting games, capital ships, etc: in the low (perhaps mid) hundreds of thousands of polygons

 

[AzBat]

http://www.microsoft.com/billgates/speeches/2001/01-06ces.asp

I think that's enough of a precedent to prove that it wasn't such a dumb assumption after all. But that's just me.

No specs. Not everything was shown then.

But that wasn't the point. You mentioned:

actual hardware will not be present and full details will not be released, but anyone who believed that was dumb. They still think it will be referenced.

The precedent I show was that they did in fact show the actual final box design, controller and some games. So, it was more than merely referenced at the 2001 CES keynote. So again, I say it wasn't such a dumb assumption to believe that Bill Gates and Microsoft might do more than just reference the system. Agreed?

Tommy McClain

 

[Inane_Dork]

You're confusing the issue by polarizing it to two sides.

The precedent I show was that they did in fact show the actual final box design, controller and some games. So, it was more than merely referenced at the 2001 CES keynote. So again, I say it wasn't such a dumb assumption to believe that Bill Gates and Microsoft might do more than just reference the system. Agreed?

Full disclosure and mere reference are two points on a spectrum. I still don't think it's rational to expect a full disclosure at CES. It is, however, reasonable to expect more than a reference.

Probability I'm not even getting into.

 

[V3]

each character in DOA3 for Xbox has ~20,000 polygons

Its about 15,000 triangles, with lower detail mesh contains much lower poly shots from far away. This is according to one of my friend, who does abit of modding for DOA3.

 

[AlNom]

Its about 15,000 triangles, with lower detail mesh contains much lower poly shots from far away. This is according to one of my friend, who does abit of modding for DOA3.

@Ninjahacker?


So basically, they use LOD biasing.

 

[AzBat]

Full disclosure and mere reference are two points on a spectrum. I still don't think it's rational to expect a full disclosure at CES.

Where did I say I expected full disclosure at CES? I was merely arguing that by using historical precedent it was reasonable to expect something along the lines of CES 2001. Meaning Microsoft could show a prototype, unveil the name or even possbily show off real games. Your comment implied to me that anything more than just a reference was not a reasonable assumption.

It is, however, reasonable to expect more than a reference.

Probability I'm not even getting into.

So it looks like we do agree after all. I guess we can leave it like that.

Tommy McClain

 

[rabidrabbit]

MS did show devkit versions of games at CES 2001, so they weren't "real games" in a strict sense of the word

Though Blackley did reassure several times that the Oddworld and Malice demos were not "pre-rendered, canned gameplay demonstrations", they still weren't running on actual xbox hardware (and I do have my doubts if especially Malice was a canned prerendered demo that was made to look like it was being played by someone, it isn't that hard to make a cgi look like it is being played by someone, with player errors and all...)

So. I expect that in this year CES there'll be similar demonstration, with a high end PC running Unreal 3 engine, and some pre-rendered "gameplay footage"

 

[V3]

@Ninjahacker?

Ninjahacker ?? I don't know what's that, but he gets to make his own color for the costume and stuff, pretty neat. But you need to mod your Xbox and stuff. Looks like too much trouble for me, so I just take his word.

So basically, they use LOD biasing.

Yeah.