predict how actual Xbox Next will differ from leaked specs

[Megadrive1988]

this thread should specifically be about what the differences might be and should be, between the actual announced (and ultimately final) specs for the next generation Xbox, compared to those of the leaked Xenon document and Xenon block diagram which may or may not be false, but even if legit, are probably very outdated.

CES is less than 3 days away and even though nothing is certain, there's a decent chance of hearing at least some of the first official specifications for Microsoft's new console.

I am hoping that the real final Xbox Next has

*higher main memory / external memory bandwidth than supposed leaked document says which was 22.4 GB/sec
*higher pixel fillrate than the 4 gigapixel fillrate mentioned in leaked doc.
*more embedded / on-die eDRAM than the 10 MB in leaked doc.


for referrence here's the supposed Xenon block diagram
http://www.xbitlabs.com/images/news/2004-04/xbox2_scheme_bg.gif
and the supposed Xenon hardware overview document
http://forums.xbox-scene.com/index.php?showtopic=231928

 

[Farid]

Re: predict how actual Xbox Next will differ from leaked spe

*more embedded / on-die eDRAM than the 10 MB in leaked doc.

Sorry to nitpick, Megadrive, but there's no eDRAM on this diagram, all we have here is EDRAM, which stand for Enhanced DRAM.
Sure in the end, it could be eDRAM that finds it way into the XeGPU, but here, for now, the diagram says EDRAM.

*higher main memory / external memory bandwidth than supposed leaked document says which was 22.4 GB/sec

I agree that it needs more RAM and more bandwidth, but the system seemed already quite equilibrated, so it might not matter that much... Still hoping for 512MB GDDR3 and ~50 GB/s bandwitdh, though.

 

[Megadrive1988]

Still hoping for 512MB GDDR3 and ~50 GB/s bandwitdh, though.

hell ya. me too.

as for the EDRAM being enhanced memory, well, it might be, but there is also at least one, but probably several, reports that say Xe GPU/VPU has embedded memory. it would make sense. and I'm hoping for at least 16-32 MB worth.

 

[Wunderchu]

higher shader throughput plz .. the shader throughput of Xenon's GPU according to those leaked specs is "48 billion shader operations per second" ...... but the Radeon X850 is already capable of "43 billion shader operations per second" (source: http://www.ati.com/products/radeonx850/index.html )

...... if the leaked specs ended up being true, that would mean Xenon's GPU would only be a bit faster (considering this single spec, anyway) than a GPU released around 1 year earlier ..... that would be the equivalent of the original Xbox's GPU (Xbox was released late 2001) being only a bit faster than a GeForce2 PRO (released late 2000)... obviously the NV2A is much faster than a GeForce 2 Pro......

I really hope that Xenon's GPU is more than a bit more powerful than the Radeon X850 , especially with regards to shader performance, which will be very important this next generation...

 

[Riddlewire]

I don't think there will be any significant difference.
Everything I've seen indicates that Microsoft's main focus next gen is on keeping costs down. I think they want to put out a machine that's 'good enough' and hope that their 6 month (or whatever) head start is enough to build up a strong userbase. I think they want to keep the specs and speeds subdued so that initial yields are high and costs are low. Also, I think they want to keep clockspeeds down so that the chips run cooler and more efficiently. I think they want a small motherboard, a small power supply, simplified cooling and a small case. All these things would keep costs down per unit. I have seen no evidence that Microsoft cares at all about having the most powerful console for the next generation. I suspect Xenon will be comparable to a high end PC at launch, but not any more powerful than that.

 

[pc999]

I expect to see Fast14 tech ( 4X faster ) it would keep costs down/cold/die size(...) and give a real boost in performance, then memory, bw etc...

 

[Brimstone]

I"ll go out on a limb.


Two CPU's each being tri-core POWER based fabbed at .90 nm. The goal is to shrink both CPU's to fit on one die at the .65 nm node once the process matures and is available at both IBM and Chartered Semiconductor.

No eDRAM on the GPU, instead Micron customizes a Yukon 16 MB processor (Active Memory) to interact with the ATI R500. So the Yukon processor becomes an up-to-date version of Mitsubishi 3DRAM.

 

[Megadrive1988]

I"ll go out on a limb.


Two CPU's each being tri-core POWER based fabbed at .90 nm. The goal is to shrink both CPU's to fit on one die at the .65 nm node once the process matures and is available at both IBM and Chartered Semiconductor.

which would make Xe CPU a 6 core, 12 thread system. that would be impressive. but I doubt 1 MB of cache would be enough for that.

 

[Almasy]

Well, I don´t believe Xenon will actually have a CPU with a clockspeed as high as the leak suggests...other than that I don´t know enough to make something that looks like an educated guess.

 

[Acert93]

Re: predict how actual Xbox Next will differ from leaked spe

Still hoping for 512MB GDDR3 and ~50 GB/s bandwitdh, though.

I third this idea! While just my personal opinion, I will be sad if it ships with 256MB of RAM. It is stated in the link that one of the goals of X2 is to "Eliminate the performance issues of the past. On Xbox, the primary bottlenecks were memory and CPU bandwidth. Xenon does not have these limitations." Considering the CPU(s) and GPU share the memory BW, if I had to choose between 22GB/s or ~50GB/s... I would take the 50GB/s! Prediction: 512MB RAM @ 50GB/s. (More like dream... but hey!)

In general I hope that the leaked X2 specs were "early" and outdated from a performance perspective. Hopefully moving down to 90nm and Fast14 may allow a lot more Shaders and/or speed than the X800 series. I also am hoping for a lot of shader units... Why? Unified shaders are forward looking in a good way, but I think they will be most effective when we are looking at HW with 3 or 4 dozen shader units or more. e.g. Unified Shader would have little effect on a 16:6 PS:VS setup. Ok, you may get a situation when 2 or 3 idle VS get to be used for PS operations. But does the possible ineffeciency (as David Kirk noted) warrant such a small swing (especially in PS limited apps?) But consider a system with 64 Shader units... that would be ~46:18 on a fixed setup. But with unified shaders in a low geometry setting, you could possibly bump up your PS power by a dozen Shader units (~58:6), or the reverse for insane geometry settings. I think Unified Shaders is a good idea, and I think they will be a good long term approach (but what do I know?) and good for a solid framerates, but I am hoping for more of them Prediction: More Shader Units.

Prediction: Instead of 12x DVD, I think we will see HD DVD.

Prediction: Instead of a GPU chip in the 500MHz range, I am expecting a chip (with Fast14) running much faster in some parts. Wild guess? 700MHz?

OT: ::Warning:: Newb Question ::Warning:: I am a diehard gamer, but only a 3D novice, so please don't flog me. I am pretty familar with the concept of PS and VS. PS/VS are programmable and replace the old fixed function T&L setup. With the X2 there are unified shaders. That much I get... This is where I get confused: The unit has 48 ALUs. How many does a current card, like the X800XT, have? And how many Unified Shader units will the X2 have, according to the leak? Or was this not disclosed?

Prediction: The leak says 3.5+GHz CPU speed. I think this was a mistake since I have heard IBM has a problem even hitting stable 3GHz chips. My guess would be they are ~1.8GHz dual core POWER CPUs, i.e. 1.8 * 2 = 3.6GHz. Hmmm but the leak said tri-core CPUs... well, if they hit 21 billion instructions per second I guess that is not bad.

 

[Inane_Dork]

Apparently, a lot of people want to buy $500 consoles.

 

[Mythos]

Since we're on Xbox 2 system...

There is a link on xbox.com under news and events to Bill Gates CES 2005 address. Inaddition, It has a graphic of the Xbox logo on a newspaper.

CES 2005: Future Tech
Bill Gates’ keynote address is on January 5.

A possible clue to Xbox2 being addressed at CES 2005 ?

 

[Wunderchu]

Since we're on Xbox 2 system...

There is a link on xbox.com under news and events to Bill Gates CES 2005 address. Inaddition, It has a graphic of the Xbox logo on a newspaper.

CES 2005: Future Tech
Bill Gates’ keynote address is on January 5.

A possible clue to Xbox2 being addressed at CES 2005 ?

hmm .. thanx for the heads up, Mythos ....

 

[Brimstone]

Apparently, a lot of people want to buy $500 consoles.

It's more along the lines that Microsoft can't allow a "Dreamcast effect" on their next console. If they do, they are knocked out of the console market and only have multi-billion dollar losses to show their shareholders. Amazon lost money for years to establish a brand and gain market share. It's ok for Microsoft to loose money as long as they improve their market share. Gates and Balmer have to insure the public that Microsoft is a widow stock. They have to have the attitude that the next console cycle is the "Thunderdome Cycle": two consoles enter, one console leaves.

 

[Wunderchu]

Apparently, a lot of people want to buy $500 consoles.

It's more along the lines that Microsoft can't allow a "Dreamcast effect" on their next console. If they do, they are knocked out of the console market and only have multi-billion dollar losses to show their shareholders. Amazon lost money for years to establish a brand and gain market share. It's ok for Microsoft to loose money as long as they improve their market share. Gates and Balmer have to insure the public that Microsoft is a widow stock. They have to have the attitude that the next console cycle is the "Thunderdome Cycle": two consoles enter, one console leaves.

exactly .......... right now Sony is waiting for Microsoft to show its hand first, just as they did with respect to SEGA in 1998 ... if Xbox Next is underpowered compared to the PS3, then Sony could just do the same thing they did in 1998 .. they could start the hype machine churning after Microsoft shows its hand, and spread FUD around the gaming world and make most of the casual gamers think that PS3 is without a doubt the better machine (with incredible tech specs to back up their claims) .... then history may repeat itself (with Microsoft taking Sega's place) and people may choose to wait for PS3 instead of being early adopters of Xbox Next............. then Microsoft's "first mover advantage" is nullified and they are almost right back where they were in the current generation .. except the fact that they will have the (arguably) weaker machine, instead of the (arguably) more powerful one..

 

[Inane_Dork]

It's more along the lines that Microsoft can't allow a "Dreamcast effect" on their next console. If they do, they are knocked out of the console market and only have multi-billion dollar losses to show their shareholders. Amazon lost money for years to establish a brand and gain market share. It's ok for Microsoft to loose money as long as they improve their market share. Gates and Balmer have to insure the public that Microsoft is a widow stock. They have to have the attitude that the next console cycle is the "Thunderdome Cycle": two consoles enter, one console leaves.

So, first off, the DC had many things dragging it down. Being lesser powered compared to the PS2 was one of them, but only one of them. Just pulling one factor out of history and saying, "See! See! I was right!" isn't good analysis.

Anyway, what you're suggesting would probably send MS into the red, but for another reason. They'd be popular enough, but their machine would prevent them from becoming profitable, again. And how stupid would that be? Hint: very stupid.

All the armchair marketing execs and systems builders probably have not come up with a concept or angle that has not been considered twice at Xbox HQ.

 

[Guden Oden]

then Sony could just do the same thing they did in 1998 .. they could start the hype machine churning after Microsoft shows it's hand, and spread FUD around the gaming world and make most of the casual gamers think that PS3 is without a doubt the better machine

EXCEPT, PS2 *IS* without a doubt the better machine compared to DC, and anyone who believes Sega went under due to Sony hype is nothing but an idiot fanperson. Sega at the time was busy digging its own grave, and quite successfully too I might add, after a whole string of lacklustre and/or prematurely abandoned hardwares. Their credibility was already at rock bottom, something potential customers were painfully aware of.

Add to that the near total lack of any promotion of the DC (at least in Europe), which definitely did not help either.

 

[Wunderchu]

then Sony could just do the same thing they did in 1998 .. they could start the hype machine churning after Microsoft shows it's hand, and spread FUD around the gaming world and make most of the casual gamers think that PS3 is without a doubt the better machine

EXCEPT, PS2 *IS* without a doubt the better machine compared to DC, and anyone who believes Sega went under due to Sony hype is nothing but an idiot fanperson. Sega at the time was busy digging its own grave, and quite successfully too I might add, after a whole string of lacklustre and/or prematurely abandoned hardwares. Their credibility was already at rock bottom, something potential customers were painfully aware of.

Add to that the near total lack of any promotion of the DC (at least in Europe), which definitely did not help either.

true enough .... however, there is also the fact that if Xbox Next ends up being less powerful compared to the PS3, that will be a huge boon for Sony's marketing team.. it will allow Sony's marketing team to stress the PS3's superior technical prowess compared to Xbox Next every chance they get..... which could put Microsoft at a disadvantage as far as the hype machine goes, right off the bat

 

[pc999]

Just to say that we should have less consideration by the "leaks" we already know that it is not a tricore Power Pc ( from DeanoC) but a clean sheet, IMO those "leaks" looks like SDK using altered components add EDRAM to a R400 should be easy, or 1 more core too. I really expect a lot more from XB2.

Anyway I already like those "leaks"

 

[Crazyace]

higher shader throughput plz .. the shader throughput of Xenon's GPU according to those leaked specs is "48 billion shader operations per second" ...... but the Radeon X850 is already capable of "43 billion shader operations per second" (source: http://www.ati.com/products/radeonx850/index.html )

...... if the leaked specs ended up being true, that would mean Xenon's GPU would only be a bit faster (considering this single spec, anyway) than a GPU released around 1 year earlier .....

I think those numbers include 6 vertex shaders as well as 16 pixel shaders ( proballly measured at >550MHz as welll.... ) If the xenon document/patent assumes that vertex shading occurs on the cpu core - the pixel shading capabilities maybe 50% more than the X850..

The Xbox fillrate was 932 MP/s, - and the geforce 3 ( released earlier ) was 1GPixel/s.