Post Xbox One Two Scorpio, what should Sony do next? *spawn* (oh, and Nintendo?)

[temesgen]

i'd hope the ps4 is the ps4 and not different. I am talkin about the ps4pro .

Sony's message is to play the ps4 games at their best possible quality with the ps4 pro. A bunch of titles were recently announced that like the Last of Us 2 will most likely launch in 2018 when you claim a ps5 would launch. Which would make the assertion that either the last of US 2 wont work on the ps5 or that the ps5 would be the best way to experience the last of us 2.

Your trying to be a smart ass but your opening up worse possibilities. So will the ps4 and thus the ps4 pro be dropped in 2018 . Is the ps4 pro's life tied to the ps4 ?

Is the ps5 something different that wont get the ps4/pro games ? If so does sony expect its customers to have multiple consoles at home to play these games.

Are the advertising games like Last of Us 2 and the death stranding wrongly as they will infact be ps5 exclusive ?


If the ps5 is just a continuation of the ps4/pro line then why would u jump in at the ps5 and not wait till the ps5 pro or even ps6 if you own a ps4 or ps4 pro ?

Anyway this should all be in the playstation thread

I was referring to PS4 and PS4Pro being the same line, it was an obvious typo... To be clear I've never said anything about when Sony will release PS5.... I have no idea why you are saying I am pushing a 2018 timeline....

Look I think its great that MS is moving the Xbox to an ecosystem that is backwards and somewhat forward compatible but I think you are claiming to know far more about Sony's plans and are presenting some things that are just inaccurate in the process such as saying PS4 and PS4Pro are anything other than the continuation of the same hardware line.

You are also more than a bit cocky about how great MS approach is and how well its going to be accepted and seem to need to present the competition in glass half full sort of way to self validate your narrative. I get that you are a MS supporter but nobody at this point has any idea how well Scorpio or iterative hardware is going to be received by the public.

On topic:

I'm inclined to think we'll have something more than plain vanilla Jaguar in Scorpio, surely there would be some balance issues pairing a reasonably competent GPU with subpar CPU. Also the additional time to market suggest there is more under the hood otherwise why wait?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Sony's message is to play the ps4 games at their best possible quality with the ps4 pro. A bunch of titles were recently announced that like the Last of Us 2 will most likely launch in 2018 when you claim a ps5 would launch. Which would make the assertion that either the last of US 2 wont work on the ps5 or that the ps5 would be the best way to experience the last of us 2.

Maybe they'll update their message then rather than be stuck with the same message forever?

If the ps5 is just a continuation of the ps4/pro line then why would u jump in at the ps5 and not wait till the ps5 pro or even ps6 if you own a ps4 or ps4 pro ?

For the same reason people buy anything. Yes, you can wait for the new, improved something, but what do you do until it's released? Everyone is faced with the proposition "wait for better or jump in now" with many choices in life, and the world isn't dumbfounded into complete inaction as a result of everyone doing nothing except waiting.

If Sony hits a 3 year cycle with mid-term upgrades, some people will align with whatever upgrade cycle they want (every 6 or 9 years), others will go with the mid term upgrades. Most realistically IMO, you'll see something like 10-20% upgrading to the mid term refresh, and otherwise nothing being any different. There's certainly a number of possible market reactions, but everyone not doing anything isn't one of them. Worst case, maybe, is next gen launch sales are muted versus other consoles because the interest is spread over two machines in the same lifetime.

 

[Jubei]

Im not sure if HMB will be cheap enough in 2018 for a mainstream console. And 7nm will be rolling out then but initial wafer cost will be high and supplies limited due to Apple having first dibs

Will be interesting to see how Sony handles BC though. And how the market will respond to the Steam machine proposition offered by MS, buy a game and keep playing it on future hardware

 

[Deleted member 13524]

https://forum.beyond3d.com/posts/1957340/

Its just a way to placate themselves. I don't think sony will launch a new system every 3 years even as mid cycle ugrades because it will set off a chain reaction where you know there is something better coming all the time.

I could see where you were going if the release cadence was 1 year or so. But no one is going to refrain from playing videogames for 3 years because there's a new console comping up.
Yeah, the 6 months preceding the new launch will lower the sales a bit (as we saw with PS4's Q3 sales), but the enormous sales boost that came after the new launch seems to have been worth the trouble. Sony reported 50 million total sales in November alone, meaning the PS4 Pro + PS4 probably sold over 5 million consoles during that month.

2018 is mentioned on that page but not in relation to Sony as far as I can tell. Maybe someone edited their post?

Unless I'm suffering from memory loss, I never once wrote 2018 as possible release date for PS5. That wouldn't make sense.

 

[mrcorbo]

These APUs have *1* Excavator module on them, which AMD considers dual-core but is actually 2 integer units with a shared FPU. This is down from the 4 full cores in Jaguar-based APUs. We know Scorpio will have 8 CPU cores and a truly massive (for an APU) GPU component. I just don't think 8 "big" cores makes sense.

I think the mod Post Office may have mishandled this one - unless Sony's plan post-Xbox One is to convince MS to put Excavator cores in Scorpio.

 

[function]

I dunno, Stoney Ridge is coming in at 124.5 mm^2 vs Kabini's ~110 mm^2, and that's with 50% more CUs (192 vs 128).

IPC for Excavator seems to be about ~20% higher than Puma, and while it's a bit fuzzy what with TDPs and all, it seems to be able to clock ~ 50% higher within the same power envelope (even with more CUs).

The earth mover cores have really come on. At the current performance level cat cores still make more sense, but if MS wanted to say double CPU throughput then in the absence of Zen, Excavator might be an option.

 

[fehu]

If ipc is 20% higher and the performace target is 2x, it must be ~+60% of 1.75GHz, or 2.8GHz base clock, that is a lot high

 

[function]

2.8 gHz seems pretty manageable for Excavator, even on 28 nm, while Cerny commented on the heat generated by their cat cores even at 2.1 on 14/16 nm FF.

I wonder if AMD have plans to continue Excavator onto 14 nm for a while, as a single dual core module will be significantly smaller than a Zen quad core module for their lowest end APUs.

 

[MrFox]

If the FPU is shared, would that cause a lower average IPC when there's a workload optimized for maximizing FPU usage? (like... heavily optimized console games on a fixed platform...)

 

[AlNom]

Sounds like a bit of a headache duct-taping 4 modules there together nevermind the duct tape for 2 Jaguar modules & the implications to snoop dogging the cashews.

 

[function]

If the FPU is shared, would that cause a lower average IPC when there's a workload optimized for maximizing FPU usage? (like... heavily optimized console games on a fixed platform...)

I dunno, maybe it would. I'm guessing that the overall speed increase would still allow you to be vastly faster per thread than Jaguar though.

Sounds like a bit of a headache duct-taping 4 modules there together nevermind the duct tape for 2 Jaguar modules & the implications to snoop dogging the cashews.

Well four modules was the original arrangement for Bulldriver, and still is in their server and *cough* high end parts. So they should already have most of the cashew dogging sorted.

How well software tuned for two quad core modules would run on 4 dual core modules might be another issue, of course, but with a vast overall speed increase that shouldn't be a problem. Maybe.

I dunno?

 

[eastmen]

Maybe they'll update their message then rather than be stuck with the same message forever?

no doubt but do you think people are going to keep blindly buying or wise up to the fact that a new one is coming and just wait.

For the same reason people buy anything. Yes, you can wait for the new, improved something, but what do you do until it's released? Everyone is faced with the proposition "wait for better or jump in now" with many choices in life, and the world isn't dumbfounded into complete inaction as a result of everyone doing nothing except waiting.

keep using your ps4 until it no longer works and then buy something new. If its the wrong year it might not be a sony console

If Sony hits a 3 year cycle with mid-term upgrades, some people will align with whatever upgrade cycle they want (every 6 or 9 years), others will go with the mid term upgrades. Most realistically IMO, you'll see something like 10-20% upgrading to the mid term refresh, and otherwise nothing being any different. There's certainly a number of possible market reactions, but everyone not doing anything isn't one of them. Worst case, maybe, is next gen launch sales are muted versus other consoles because the interest is spread over two machines in the same lifetime.

or they go with a different system that offers something else be it a switch , a pc or an xbox.

one can argue that if you buy a new pc in 2013 you'd still be playing games at ps4 pro quality at this point with perhaps little in the cost of upgrades.

 

[eastmen]

I could see where you were going if the release cadence was 1 year or so. But no one is going to refrain from playing videogames for 3 years because there's a new console comping up.
Yeah, the 6 months preceding the new launch will lower the sales a bit (as we saw with PS4's Q3 sales), but the enormous sales boost that came after the new launch seems to have been worth the trouble. Sony reported 50 million total sales in November alone, meaning the PS4 Pro + PS4 probably sold over 5 million consoles during that month.

There are 50m ps4s out there so they can continue playing on them that's the point. Unless Sony says hey we aren't supporting the ps4 anymore your SOL and those old projects we announced before the ps5 wont work on the ps4. Of course where do you leave the ps4 pro ? Do you kill it also ? Do you kill it 3 years into its life ? So that regular users get 6 years and pro users get 3 years ? Who would really buy a pro in the future ? Its a big can of worms. I think MS might face this also but we've already seen MS handle BC very well and I don't think they will drop the ball in the future

Unless I'm suffering from memory loss, I never once wrote 2018 as possible release date for PS5. That wouldn't make sense.

yes your right you said 2019 .

 

[Shifty Geezer]

no doubt but do you think people are going to keep blindly buying or wise up to the fact that a new one is coming and just wait.

Depends how much of an improvement over their current console they want - do they want new and improved now, or is the current model good enough? Maybe the current model is good enough and they'll upgrade to the new model in three years when the even-newer model comes out and the price is lower. It's actually no different than now, with consumer choice driven by price. Upgrade from PS3 to PS4 after 5 years, or wait a couple and upgrade after 7 when its cheaper.

keep using your ps4 until it no longer works and then buy something new.

Unrealistic. Console gamers like new-and-improved. Unless it breaks within that three years in which case they have a choice between a new console or replacement cheaper old console.

If its the wrong year it might not be a sony console

Same for other console manufacturers. What if an XB1 owner isn't ready for an upgrade when Scorpio's out, and then along comes PS5? What if a core gamer wants an upgrade 3 years after getting a PS5 and only MS is offering one?

You can't please everyone, and can't cover ever possible contingent. The best you can do is give a suitable spread of choices, which is what the mid-term upgrades offer. Thus consoles progress in generations with the optimal new-and-improved experience for a subset of more serious gamers, at least in are current understand of Sony's future plans. For MS it's different as they are going to be selling a progressive system.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Of course where do you leave the ps4 pro ? Do you kill it also ? Do you kill it 3 years into its life ?

Yes, because it's a PS4. There's no reason to think a PS4Pro will be actively supported 3 years after the PS4 has been sidelined.

So that regular users get 6 years and pro users get 3 years ? Who would really buy a pro in the future ?

The hardcore gamer who wants better than current-spec console quality and is willing to pay a premium for it.

Its a big can of worms.

It's a small can of worms. PS4Pro isn't a new platform and it's unlikely anyone will view it as such. Anyone buying a PS4 now is only going to get 3 years or whatever support for it, same as any gen. Pro just costs a bit more, for a better experience. The buyer determines what price is worth what quality for what lifespan - spend more earlier for more years with the system, or less later for less years support but cheaper machine? Spend a bit more later for an upgrade (sell old machine to get PS4Pro, then sell PS4Pro to get PS5) or stick with what you've got until the new gen? It's nothing but simple product choices.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Unless Sony says hey we aren't supporting the ps4 anymore your SOL and those old projects we announced before the ps5 wont work on the ps4. Of course where do you leave the ps4 pro ? Do you kill it also ? Do you kill it 3 years into its life ? So that regular users get 6 years and pro users get 3 years ? Who would really buy a pro in the future ? Its a big can of worms.

Games launched during generation transitions are usually developed for both the old and the new generation, so it's not like PS4 users will instantly lose new game releases. In fact, even the 10 year-old PS3 is still getting all the EA Sports, WWEs, Lego, Just Dance games and even upcoming high-profile JRPGs like Persona 5.
As for exclusively Pro users getting a smaller lifetime, Sony as stated many times that this is not a new platform. It's just a more powerful version of the same platform. The Pro isn't a console whose library started in 2016, its library started in 2013. If those people complain it's because they made an uninformed purchase.

 

[temesgen]

Yes, because it's a PS4. There's no reason to think a PS4Pro will be actively supported 3 years after the PS4 has been sidelined.
The hardcore gamer who wants better than current-spec console quality and is willing to pay a premium for it.
It's a small can of worms. PS4Pro isn't a new platform and it's unlikely anyone will view it as such. Anyone buying a PS4 now is only going to get 3 years or whatever support for it, same as any gen. Pro just costs a bit more, for a better experience. The buyer determines what price is worth what quality for what lifespan - spend more earlier for more years with the system, or less later for less years support but cheaper machine? Spend a bit more later for an upgrade (sell old machine to get PS4Pro, then sell PS4Pro to get PS5) or stick with what you've got until the new gen? It's nothing but simple product choices.

This pointed has been hammered enough everyone knows PS4Pro is fundamentally a PS4, it's only when someone needs to present evidence of Sony screwing consumers that the point gets blurred and questions come up about support after PS4 is cancelled.

 

[Jay]

This pointed has been hammered enough everyone knows PS4Pro is fundamentally a PS4, it's only when someone needs to present evidence of Sony screwing consumers that the point gets blurred and questions come up about support after PS4 is cancelled.

agree, and that's why i say 4pro only need to be powerful enough to last as long as ps4.
whereas that's not the case for Scorpio, it needs to be powerful enough to overlap Xbox next.
all this in regards to cpu.

 

[mrcorbo]

agree, and that's why i say 4pro only need to be powerful enough to last as long as ps4.
whereas that's not the case for Scorpio, it needs to be powerful enough to overlap Xbox next.
all this in regards to cpu.

Why would Scorpio have to be any different than PS4Pro?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Assuming Xbox Next is compatible with Scorpio so Scorpio will play the same code as Xbox Next. If XBN games run on Scorpio and we don't want XBN to be severely CPU limited, Scorpio will need a much better CPU than XB1's. That's different for Sony if Sony are making a clean break. It'll also be different for MS if MS has XBN only titles rather than treating the console like different spec PCs.