Playstation 3: Hardware Info and Price

[DemoCoder]

They said the same thing when the PS2 shipped with a DVD drive.

Comeon, we all know the PS/2 has inferior graphics than the other consoles and costs more than a GC. Therefore, logic would dictate that "average gamers" would all buy GCs "it's about THE GAMES" as Nintendo says, and not buy some overpriced, underpowered, DVD-playing PS/2.

 

[Bobbler]

The average gamer is ALWAYS the target. The moment they aren't you've lost any chance at being #1. The average gamer is ruled by emotion and impressions. A few CGI videos will make them believe you have the ulitmate gaming system, and an initial price that's way out of their budget causes them to dismiss you, even if they aren't planning on buying a new system for several years.

It's a term called "mindset."

Once you get people in the mindset that your system costs too much and offers too little, it's extremely hard to reverse that idea.

If you need a real-world example, just look at how many years Nintendo has worked to shed the "kiddie" image, and haven't even made a dent in the public mindset on that issue.

You're mixing together the actual marketing target and sales target -- they are two different things, especially on a product whose price drops methodically over the years.

No console's release is targeting the average consumer when it launches -- they does, however, want them to _want_ the console, but that generally isn't the price these people will be buying it at. The same target/marketing will happen if the initial price of 500-600 as it does with an initial price of 400 -- depending on their price cutting they may not reach the average market for a while longer or they may, hard to say.

There is a lot up in the air with how they handle all this, but as far as the initial hardcore, I don't think there is much to worry about -- its what Sony does around E3 07 that will really matter as far as pricing goes.

 

[patsu]

Ignoring the launch price for a moment, since it's largely irrelevant. They will be limited by supply rather than demand initially, I'm wondering how they project the price to drop over the next 3 or 4 years.

Even at $100 a year, it leaves it as a pretty expensive item 3 years from now.
At some point do they drop the cheaper or more expensive SKU?
Given the majority of a consoiles sales are at <$200 I wonder if Sony intends to try and extend the cycle?

Looking at things from the outside, it seems that Sony intends to follow the same schedule as PS2 since it was the most successful system for them.

It is also planning for a ten year life cycle for PS3 (like PS2). So I think the first planned drop would probably be 1-2 year out. I don't think MS will let them off so easily though.

Sony also has a separate agenda to keep PSTwo as long as possible. So the relatively high PS3 price (hence XB360's and Wii's) will not cannibalize PSTwo sales, until they stop manufacturing them.

These are all my educated guesses. I'm not an insider.

 

[L233]

Comeon, we all know the PS/2 has inferior graphics than the other consoles and costs more than a GC. Therefore, logic would dictate that "average gamers" would all buy GCs "it's about THE GAMES" as Nintendo says, and not buy some overpriced, underpowered, DVD-playing PS/2.

Eh, I guess nowadays people do indeed buy PS2s for the games because you can get a better DVD player for €50 that can also play your warez'd DivX/Xvid moviez.

 

[DemoCoder]

I think people buying the PS/2 today are not even mainstream, but really tailend adopters, who are getting it for a specific game.

My friend who is a PC gamer exclusively, but a car freak, buy the PS/2 + logictech wheel + GT4 only because he wanted to play GT4.

I know some people (Xbox owners) who bought a PS/2 recently only because of God of War.

This is not why people buy consoles at launch. In fact, launch content usually sucks, and continues to suck almost for the first year.

 

[Bobbler]

Im inclined to believe that this is the only reasonable approach. If Sony does not do this, they really are shooting themselves in the foot. In addition, I have to believe that Sony's cost curve will fall much faster than MS, as BR hits mass production and drops signifigantly in price.

It makes total sense to me that we see aggressive pricedrops from sony around E3 next year. And this consumer backlash you speak of is exagerated, you're talking about 6million early adopters who are hardcore, they'll get over it, meanwhile everyone else will just be happy they can finally pick up a PS3 base unit for $400 or less.

Again, I'm under the belief that this is a calculated move by sony to get some extra money out of the early adopters, rather than something they were forced to do due to high costs. If not, MS is gonna put the hurt on em in 2007.

This is what I'm thinking as well, or hoping -- otherwise Sony really has lost their marbles.

 

[DemoCoder]

Hell, I'm gonna try to pre-order as many different places as possible, not only to ensure I get one, but if I get lucky and get any extras, I'm sure I'll be able to sell for 2x the price on eBay if not more.

 

[Bobbler]

Ignoring the launch price for a moment, since it's largely irrelevant. They will be limited by supply rather than demand initially, I'm wondering how they project the price to drop over the next 3 or 4 years.

Even at $100 a year, it leaves it as a pretty expensive item 3 years from now.
At some point do they drop the cheaper or more expensive SKU?
Given the majority of a consoiles sales are at <$200 I wonder if Sony intends to try and extend the cycle?

An interesting point... I have a feeling we won't be seeing a shorter cycle this time around (it'll be as long as PS2 or longer I'm guessing). 6+ year cycle, maybe even 7?

Lots of stuff up in the air at this point -- this insanity could prove to work out well in the end, who knows.

 

[RobertR1]

Looking at things from the outside, it seems that Sony intends to follow the same schedule as PS2 since it was the most successful system for them.

It is also planning for a ten year life cycle for PS3 (like PS2). So I think the first planned drop would probably be 1-2 year out. I don't think MS will let them off so easily though.

Sony also has a separate agenda to keep PSTwo as long as possible. So the relatively high PS3 price (hence XB360's and Wii's) will not cannibalize PSTwo sales, until they stop manufacturing them.

These are all my educated guesses. I'm not an insider.

If they're planning 10 year life cycle for the PS3 then it's already gg. MS will have something new out by 2009 and by that time even a low end PC will wipe the floor with the PS3 and Xbox 360. I don't think Sony is that silly!

 

[Kutu-jiao]

I was just wondering..could Sony come out with a rumble device to complement the DS3?

I mean they lost the right to implement the rumble feature in their joypads how about some sort of wristband or glove that has rumble effects?They may be keeping this feature as a secret who knows?Since the PS3 supports upto 7 Bluetooth devices it opens up new possibilities for remote controls and devices such as this.

If you look at Nintendo's Wii joypad it has two main components.One being the remote control and the other the analog pad.By having 2 separate sections, they were able to retain both the rumble feature and add the motion sensing capability.

 

[L233]

I think people buying the PS/2 today are not even mainstream, but really tailend adopters, who are getting it for a specific game.

My friend who is a PC gamer exclusively, but a car freak, buy the PS/2 + logictech wheel + GT4 only because he wanted to play GT4.

I know some people (Xbox owners) who bought a PS/2 recently only because of God of War.

This is not why people buy consoles at launch. In fact, launch content usually sucks, and continues to suck almost for the first year.

Yes, but the DVD functionality hasn't been a selling point for a long time. It was back when the PS2 was released, though.

I'm not sure if BluRay is as important to the consumer as DVD was a couple of years ago. HDTV is still a niche market due to costs. Customers are still insecure about the whole HDMI/HDCP Digital Restriction Management clusterfuck, the format war is far from over and content is scarce.

The PS2 entered the market right in time to profit from the DVD boom, the PS3 might be too early.

 

[patsu]

If they're planning 10 year life cycle for the PS3 then it's already gg. MS will have something new out by 2009 and by that time even a low end PC will wipe the floor with the PS3 and Xbox 360. I don't think Sony is that silly!

PS2 lasts 10 years for them. You can have some overlap between this gen and the next gen like right now (although it's messy). Power would be a separate issue by then. The content library would be the selling point.

 

[expletive]

It is highly likely that yields will go up, and costs will go down for CELL and RSX. And GDDR-3 is bound to drop in price as well. The big questions are how fast XDR can drop (why can't people stay away from Rambus) and how fast the OPU in the BD drive can drop. Most of the other components, core logic/asics for wifi, bluetooth, HDCP, ethernet, etc are also bound to drop.

Dont forget the standard HD... How low can that component possibly go over the next 5 years? $20? And it will be part of the BOM of the PS3 forever.

I'm not saying that the PS3 doesnt have the potential to drop drastically in price, but ERP's point earlier is well taken. This launch price is not nearly as important as the price of the PS3 when the 360 is 199 or 149 and the Wii is 149 or 99.

 

[Bobbler]

Yes, but the DVD functionality hasn't been a selling point for a long time. It was back when the PS2 was released, though.

I'm not sure if BluRay is as important to the consumer as DVD was a couple of years ago. HDTV is still a niche market due to costs. Customers are still insecure about the whole HDMI/HDCP Digital Restriction Management clusterfuck, the format war is far from over and content is scarce.

The PS2 entered the market right in time to profit from the DVD boom, the PS3 might be too early.

It's definitely early for BR, but I think it'll help BR a bit. In a few years it might be just in time for it to be helpful to PS3, vs PS3 being helpful to BR.

 

[DemoCoder]

The PS2 entered the market right in time to profit from the DVD boom, the PS3 might be too early.

I think that's probably more true of Europe than the US. There are already a huge number of households with HDTVs, and by 2008 its going to be 20% under current predictions. All major cable and satellite companies are showing HD content now. Major networks show major hit shows in HD (24, House, Lost, etc) And DTV is being mandated by FCC, so analog broadcasts will go away. Most people who upgrade to a DTV are going to go HD, except for people who buy DTV tuners and attach them to their old boobtube 25" crt sets.

I think 2006 is early for BR except for early adopters, but I think you'll see in 2007 and 2008 that HD-DVD/BR are going to take off.

 

[RobertR1]

PS2 lasts 10 years for them. You can have some overlap between this gen and the next gen like right now (although it's messy). Power would be a separate issue by then. The content library would be the selling point.

I think peoples demand for visual quality has increased significantly over the past few years and thus quicker referesh cycles of the consoles are necessary. Also, now with a lot of games being ports between console and pc, IQ degradation will be quickly noted and shunned upon. Just my take.

 

[nelg]

I think that's probably more true of Europe than the US. There are already a huge number of households with HDTVs, and by 2008 its going to be 20% under current predictions. All major cable and satellite companies are showing HD content now. Major networks show major hit shows in HD (24, House, Lost, etc) And DTV is being mandated by FCC, so analog broadcasts will go away. Most people who upgrade to a DTV are going to go HD, except for people who buy DTV tuners and attach them to their old boobtube 25" crt sets.

I think 2006 is early for BR except for early adopters, but I think you'll see in 2007 and 2008 that HD-DVD/BR are going to take off.

Too add to that; HDTV is like crack. Once you see your neighbor's or brothers HDTV it is really hard to go back to SDTV.

 

[patsu]

I think peoples demand for visual quality has increased significantly over the past few years and thus quicker referesh cycles of the consoles are necessary. Also, now with a lot of games being ports between console and pc, IQ degradation will be quickly noted and shunned upon. Just my take.

Perhaps, but it will take sometime for people to extract full power from the Cell, RSX, Hard disk, new controller and Blu-ray. Those are still pretty amazing hardware. What we see today is just the tip of the iceberg.

 

[DemoCoder]

Too add to that; HDTV is like crack. Once you see your neighbor's or brothers HDTV it is really hard to go back to SDTV.

I had a friend over the other day and I was showing him my PJ system. First thing I showed him was an SD broadcast. Then I showed him a so-called "HD" broadcast which was really an SD broadcast that the TV station had upscaled to HD. He wasn't impressed.

Finally, I showed him Lost, House, and Battlestar Galactica in HD, which as mastered in HD. He immediately say "wow, it's like night and day". I then switched back to the SD broadcasts and back and forth, and his comments were "they look blurry now". I then took an SD version of Lost and showed it to him (DVD), and switched back and forth. He was still impressed.

I get exactly the same irritation I get everytime I watch alot of HD, and then have to go watch a show that is non-HD. It looks 'blurry', like a game where the texture LOD is turned way down. Details on the face disappear, people's hairlines blend together and you don't see individual hairs anymore.

I don't think it will be hard to show people the difference between HD and SD side by side, but showing difference between 720p and 1080p will be harder.

 

[AlNom]

I don't think it will be hard to show people the difference between HD and SD side by side, but showing difference between 720p and 1080p will be harder.

No it's not, just look at the bill.


j/k