Phil Harrison's GDC keynote - Home, LittleBigPlanet & more

[Titanio]

I'm only familiar with my own schedule and it hurts, believe me (working on game characters since the beginning of this year). I just don't think they can complete a nextgen game of that caliber within such timeframes.

By the time winter 07 rolls around it will have been over two years since ND's last release, and likely longer since they started work on PS3.

Insomniac also didn't just start work on Ratchet when they wrapped Resistance - they had a smaller team working on Ratchet in parallel to Resistance, and then switched people over to Ratchet when Resistance was done. They've grown a lot, they're really a two-project company now. Don't be surprised if the team working on extra Resistance stuff is also looking at early Resistance 2 work. To compare against Resistance, we first saw a glimpse of Resistance in May 2005, with a release in Nov 2006. We first saw a glimpse of Ratchet in March 2006, so a release by the end of 2007 doesn't seem that out of tune with their prior record. Looking at how Resistance came together between E3 06 and its launch, if I had to bet on one company to make their target deadlines, it'd be Insomniac.

Of course, again, a slip is possible in either case. But I don't see it as any more likely than with any other project tbh.

 

[ManuVlad3.0]

Great posts, Titanio. As always, btw.

 

[scooby_dooby]

I wasn't aware you were so familiar with both Insomniac AND Naughty Dog's schedules!

You can't really make comments like that, unless you want everyone to suddenly start applying the same logic to big games in every system's lineup where it suits them or their point. Ratchet is officially down now for Fall 2007, and Uncharted is officially down for Winter 2007. Now of course they could slip, but that's true of any game on any platform, so I don't see why you're seeing either of these games at risk, and not others (either on PS3 or other platforms you might prefer).
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Most of the 360 games have already been delayed 6month to a year, so they're less likely to slip. These PS3 games aimed at 07 are first gen, all towards the end of the year, and we all know how often games slip. Look at the 360's first holiday season after launch, almost every 1st party game had to be delayed.

That's why I added the caveat that the list of games looks solid if there's no delays, but I would not be surprised at all to see 1 or 2 of the bigger titles slip into 08. If MGS, HS, R&C and the ND game all make 07, that's a great lineup imo, but if a couple slip it starts to look mighty thin.

I bet a 6month exclusive on GTAIV is looking pretty sweet to Sony right about now

 

[mckmas8808]

Most of the 360 games have already been delayed 6month to a year, so they're less likely to slip. These PS3 games aimed at 07 are first gen, all towards the end of the year, and we all know how often games slip. Look at the 360's first holiday season after launch, almost every 1st party game had to be delayed.

That's why I added the caveat that the list of games looks solid if there's no delays, but I would not be surprised at all to see 1 or 2 of the bigger titles slip into 08.

1 or 2 might slip, but which ones? And the samething can be said about the 360 titles. So at the end of the day we both have some nice exclusives this year.

 

[Titanio]

but if a couple slip it starts to look mighty thin.

Not really. There are plenty of titles there, and a number of other 'possibles' that may well end up being released this year even if others slip.

All we can do is look at schedules as they are right now. I personally don't see any reason yet to cast doubt on most of these titles more than I would for any other game, except that it serves the purposes of those who wish to try and downplay the PS3's 07 lineup as weak/weaker, which as it looks now, it certainly does not (IMO - and that's a subjective point, but if you want to be objective, right now you can only look at the numbers of titles, in which case the lineup stacks up very well indeed anyway). If games do slip, then a point can be made on them, but who is to say for now?

Let's revisit this at the end of the year. Coming back to my original point, I don't think I'm going out on a limb by suggesting that a dozen or more first party titles are likely between now and the end of the year. Sony is a bigger publisher so a bigger lineup should not be surprising.

 

[mckmas8808]

And why isn't Little Big Planet not being mentioned as a 2007 title? It's right in there with the big boys.

And HOME while not a game is something that people can play in. I mean decorating your house like the Sims, playing pool and bowling in the entertainment areas, playing small arcade games in the lobby, and doing other mini-games that were shown.

Please all the other stuff that it can do it actually does count.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

For me, the take-home point is that Home and LBP aren't expected to carry the entire platform on their own. They're not the Lone-Ranger system sellers. I doubt many of these games are. It's the whole lineup that's giving the system it's appeal. You don't get a PS3 to play LBP. You don't get a PS3 to go on Home. You get it to play LBP and go on Home and play RnC and SingStar and HSGolf and GTA4 and R:FoM and Assasin's Creed and...

The range of titles on PS3 are certainly there. It has something for everyone, among 1st party and 3rd party titles, with 1st party adding a lot of breadth to the library. The terms 'system seller' and 'triple-A title' are poorly defined. Instead of referencing them, you only need look at the upcoming titles, both for this year and next (adding White Knight Story and FFXIII and MGS4 etc. to the exclusives) to see PS3 is not devoid of quality software. PS3 owners aren't going to be lamenting the lack of high-calibre games (and note that not every big-name title is actually high calibre. None of these games can be called AAA until they're out and reviewed and shown to actually be any good!). Home and LBP are contributing factors to the appeal and should not be looked at in isolation as to whether, on their own, they could sell boxes.

 

[scooby_dooby]

I personally don't see any reason yet to cast doubt on most of these titles more than I would for any other game, except that it serves the purposes of those who wish to try and downplay the PS3's 07 lineup as weak/weaker

I would call it realistic. Big budget games slip all the time, expecially 1st generation stuff. Expecting 4 big budget 1st generation titles all ship with 12 months of the consoles release is pretty optimistic imo.

Anyways, just my guess. I have no reason to DP the lineup, if all 4 of those games ship I'll probably pickup a PS3 this holiday if I can afford it.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

And HOME while not a game is something that people can play in. I mean decorating your house like the Sims, playing pool and bowling in the entertainment areas, playing small arcade games in the lobby, and doing other mini-games that were shown.

And playing BRD movies, and going on the internet, and copying music to and from your MP3 player, and messing about with Linux, and viewing groovey photo slideshows, etc. To some people, none of this matters. It seems they think people will only buy a $500+ console to play one particular title, and all the other things they might do with it are a happy accident.

 

[Sis]

And playing BRD movies, and going on the internet, and copying music to and from your MP3 player, and messing about with Linux, and viewing groovey photo slideshows, etc. To some people, none of this matters. It seems they think people will only buy a $500+ console to play one particular title, and all the other things they might do with it are a happy accident.

Not to get too sidetracked, but I think there is more evidence of a particular game being a system seller than of a console's features selling the console. The PSP, though, seems to be one where even though there isn't a standout system seller, the device sells anyway, likely based on it's features.

I think I just argued with myself in a single post. :|

 

[archangelmorph]

Heavenly Sword should already have more marketing push, it's AAA all the way. DMC4 is looking good too, but it may become multiplatform if PS3 sales remain slow. I don't care about Singstar but I know it's a successful product line. LBP is cool, but I don't think it'll become such a sales phenomenon.

All IMHO of course.

Huh??

How does your logic develop such an idea?

Firstly you define Resistance as a monetary flop and describe the title as having sold 500k copies to date..?

How is that a flop?

Sure if you compare it to GeoW's 3 million coppies sold but then again AFAIK the PS3 install base has only recently jumped over the 1m mark so how is nearly 50% of the total install base with more potentia sales a "failure"..? In my oppinion resistance is gonna receive an ass massive sales jump once the PS3 hits the stores in the UK (especially since us brits have spent the past couple of months hearing the rest of the world rave on about how great it is) and i'm sure with the introduction of DLC its possible the title will continue to see sales for alot longer than the average shelf-life of a PS2 game for example..

So going by that, considering the fact that resistance is an original IP and i'm sure required Insomniac to invest significant dollars in startup for tech and concept development, and considering that DMC4 is a continuation if a long running PS2 franchise which I assume would require a much smaller investment in terms of concept development, planning, and especially tech (where Capcom are leveraging their multi-platform framework engine) then why would they ever need to go multiplat with DMC4 when a game like resistance can comfortably survive on the PS3's current install base?

Your idea just doesn't make sense to me LY..

 

[aselto]

They have to sell 5 million systems first.

Yeah, that's right. But it'll happen in worst case by October (but likely much earlier)

aselto, I'm sorry but that's rubbish.

Look at the top 20 selling console games on Wikipedia. Just because you might not fancy them to sell 5+ means nothing. Some PS3 exclusives have consitantly sold well.

I'm sure many of PS3 games will perform fine and sell 1-2M copies, but PS3 simply won't have a title of Halo 3 or Mario Galaxy caliber.

MGS4?

MGS3 sold 3-3,5M copies and we don't know if it comes out later this year for sure.

 

[Sis]

Huh??

How does your logic develop such an idea?

Firstly you define Resistance as a monetary flop and describe the title as having sold 500k copies to date..?

How is that a flop?

I believe you want a million-seller to be considered a success, just based on the high costs of developing a game. Resistance is selling poorly because of the low install base, but I think Laa-Yosh is forgetting that launch games typically have long legs. Resistance should end up quite high in sales, once all is said and done.

But that doesn't take away from the accuracy of his DMC comment. Sony needs a larger install base to convince 3rd party developers to maintain exclusivity, especially given the Xbox 360's very respectable attach rate.

 

[DJ12]

I'm sure many of PS3 games will perform fine and sell 1-2M copies, but PS3 simply won't have a title of Halo 3 or Mario Galaxy caliber.

Given that any Halo game isn't in the top 20 list of all time console games and there are 3 Gran Turismo games I will bet money on the fact you are wrong.

 

[archangelmorph]

But that doesn't take away from the accuracy of his DMC comment. Sony needs a larger install base to convince 3rd party developers to maintain exclusivity, especially given the Xbox 360's very respectable attach rate.

But this still doesn't take away from the inaccuracy of his DMC comment considering the fact that the PS3 still hasn't been released in an entire (PAL) territory yet and by the time DMC4 hits gold the PS3 landscape will look very different..

 

[aselto]

Given that any Halo game isn't in the top 20 list of all time console games and there are 3 Gran Turismo games I will bet money on the fact you are wrong.

Halo 2 hit or almost hit 8M units (I don't see Gran Turismo Prologues on that list either...). So unless Uncharted or Heavenly Sword is a Halo/GTA3 of this generation, I don't see a PS3-exclusive title with potential to sell 5M+ copies.
edit: actually according to CNN Money Halo 2 sold over 8M copies as of May 2006
http://money.cnn.com/2006/05/09/technology/e3_microsoft/index.htm
And it had some nice months in USA after that (it sold over 100k last December and over 50k a month on average IIRC).

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Given that any Halo game isn't in the top 20 list of all time console games and there are 3 Gran Turismo games I will bet money on the fact you are wrong.

That's really crazy reasoning! Halo 2 sold 8 million to a user base of about 24 million. Based on relative market size, it's sales are astronomical. Certainly comparable in appeal to the likes of Gran Turismo on PS1. Isn't every title in the top-20 list for platforms with a far larger install base than XB had? It's a lot easier to sell 8 million copies of Pokemon to 60 million GameBoys than to sell 8 million Halo2's to 24 million XBs!

Top selling titles sell to a portion of the install base. To compare likelihood of a console having million-selling titles based on existing franchises, you should compare best salse of those franchises with installed base. eg. Halo 2 sold to about 33% of XB owners. You'd expect Halo 3 to sell to 33% of XB360s, or maybe 5 million or more when it launches. GT sold to 10 million PS1s, and 11 million PS2s. Out of 100 million consoles, that's like 10%. So with 5 million PS3's, GT would be expected to sell to 10%, or 500,000 units. The fact that the most popular titles sell to at best all of 10% of console owners means that to get million-unit sellers, you need a large install base.

 

[Titanio]

GT sold to 10 million PS1s, and 11 million PS2s. Out of 100 million consoles, that's like 10%. So with 5 million PS3's, GT would be expected to sell to 10%, or 500,000 units.

That's a very flawed assessment/comparison, unless you only expect PS3 to sell 5m consoles in its lifetime. According to Wikipedia, GT3 has sold 11m copies. Upon its Japanese release there were probably just about that many PS2s shipped (10.6m at the end of March 2001). If GT5 is releasing in Spring 08, it seems quite possible it will be launching to a similar number of PS3s (probably more). Clearly, in GT3's case, there was little correlation between the PS2 userbase at its launch and its ultimate sales achievement.

I think it's a very bold bet - that no PS3 title will sell greater than 5m units. Unless one is constraining themselves to 2007, which I don't get the impression is the case here.

I guess it's probably fairly pointless at this stage to point out how far OT we are..

 

[aselto]

(...)

It doesn't work that way. Game's popularity should be always counted irrespectively to the game's platform. But still it doesn't change the fact that Halo is one of the biggest franchises in industry and Halo 3 will probably have a huge impact unless Bungie's new child doesn't live to the hype.
As of GT3, it was bundled with PS2, wasn't it? Not that it changed anything, at least 11M people know the series now.

 

[DJ12]

Halo 2 hit or almost hit 8M units (I don't see Gran Turismo Prologues on that list either...).

Are you saying Halo 2 is a demo?