NPD October 2008

[mrcorbo]

That's not strictly true. It has to impress, but impressing has less to do with marketing than with actual game quality. This is a slightly uphill battle, as I suspect MS has held better relations with the press than Sony, and the press are the main culprits when it comes to overhyping titles.

I think Sony hasn't been able to build up the proper hype with the press to get them to froth like idiots over their games. But I don't think it's impossible, it'd just cost money.

How much of this has to do with the fact that in many cases Sony has been failing to deliver on their hype?

Even the gaming press, who thrive on hype, have a limit to how many times they can promote a game or feature based on PR from one of the platform holders and then have them scale-back, delay or underwhelm with the actual product. They need to maintain some credibility. MS has been hit or miss this gen, but they have delivered enough that press outlets are more likely to buy into their "next big thing".

 

[obonicus]

How much of this has to do with the fact that in many case Sony has been failing to deliver on their hype?

This is highly relative. Again, this isn't the place to discuss individual game merit, but I'd argue that of the games with 9-10 scores out this 2008 not a single one has lived up to the hype (and 2007 wasn't much better). It doesn't matter, though: we have people on even this forum who have declared these games their GOTYs without even playing them. The press really isn't much more critical than we are, either, and maybe we shouldn't expect them to be.

The point is that perception very, very rarely has anything to do with reality in the gaming industry, for several reasons, and that a shift in perception can have a massive effect on sales.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

It's always shocking to see the PS2 in these graphs.

It's interesting to see that Sony are maintaing the same software sales as the PS2 in it's heyday. In essence they haven't lost anything in the transition. It seems, at a glance, MS haven't expanded on software sales, but Nintendo have. It could be said Sony and MS are just transitioning their previous customers, while Nintendo are expanding theres. Though clearly that's a flawed logic when you look into it, it is still interesting to see the idea presented in technicolor blocks.

 

[Rangers]

So we know at least that total software in the US for 2008 has Wii outselling 360.

I just dont understand where, when Wii often just has a few titles in the top fifty these days.

Wii just sells the same few games over and over, Wii sports, play, Fit (but not music! it's a bomb). Those are where it gets it's 2-3 games in the top 10 every time. Worldwide. But it doesn't seem to do anything beyond that.

Also I note that graph is unit sales. Considering Wii titles are 50 vs 60 for 360/PS3 that paints them in a better light. I wonder if tons of cut rate shovelware is selling on Wii to bring those unit figures up?

There is an ENOURMOUS amount of shovel ware that we never see on DS and Wii. Things like "Susies horse trainer". Or here, I just dug a random one up for an example: http://www.amazon.com/Hasbro-Family...019R4VD0/ref=pd_ts_vg_81?ie=UTF8&s=videogames

In fact it proves shovelware has nothing to do with a console dying as those machines are more popular than ever.

 

[obonicus]

I just dont understand where, when Wii often just has a few titles in the top fifty these days.

Wii just sells the same few games over and over, Wii sports, play, Fit (but not music! it's a bomb). Those are where it gets it's 2-3 games in the top 10 every time. Worldwide. But it doesn't seem to do anything beyond that.

Like I said earlier, we really don't get to see the top 20, or top 30. A game can have long legs and solid sales and never chart in NPD top 10. We'd never know until the earnings call.

 

[patsu]

We don't have real data to argue either way. Also, NPD is not global sales right ?

wiki indicates that there are 22m 360s sold as of sept 30th and 34.5m wii's in the same time period . Nintendo has a 12m unit advantage as is far lacking in terms of million sellers. Whats worse when looking at it from a third party perspective the wii's installed base means very little as your getting squeezed by nintendos games. Wii play may be a monster for nintendo but many people who buy that may say well there is the game i'm going to buy right now in stead of "3rd party" game for how ever long untill they buy a new game.

The Wii numbers are certainly not bad. As user base increases, the audience will dilute (The same will happen to MS as it grows towards second tier customers). Microsoft also uses a lot of bundling strategies (packs) to promote sales. Nintendo just chose to include WiiPlay as standard.

You get squeezed by platform holders' games in all 3 cases. Nintendo has strong brand recognition with its fan base, but that's because they do a great job. Wii Music indicated that they can miss too. As long as 3rd party developers know the Wii audience, they should be able to sell well. As obonicus pointed out, some games sold best on Wii.

This is exactly why the wii is not getting third party support. The 360 will continue to sell extremely well and move software extremely well even with a smaller user base. With nintendo not only do you have to worry about the few first party games released each year but it seems that some of their games have year long legs . With MS you may have to worry about a halo 3 or pgr and they make a big splash and take away from 3rd party sales also , however you a) have the core gamers that will move onto the next game quickly and b) they just make a splash and then a month or two later are done selling and there is room for another title .

Wii developers will grow as long as Wii continues to outpace competitors and software sales continues to rise. There is no exclusive reason to ignore it in the long run. 360 is trying to target the casual gamers. They will face the same "challenges" as Wii. Over time, 3rd party developers will become better at selling to casual gamers. The cost of Wii games are not as high as those for HD games anyway.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

This is a sales thread, not really a games one. I don't think we should be debating relative merits of games.

Not to mention that KZ2 should hit something like Halo1's sales first... then we can talk about it's role on the PS3.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

I would agree with that. Resistance is on the second-tier with Gears below KZ2, GT, Halo etc, but still a massively high-profile game.

Gears is second tier? Seriously, we're talking about a game that's sold 5 million on its first chapter and looks forward to improve that on the second game. Has any PS3 game sold 5 million units yet?

 

[Rangers]

Lets just take this from a simpler perspective then. #1 in NPD game.

Userbase LTD NPD is over 13m for Wii now, versus 11.5 some for 360. In addition more of those wii owners are newer, since it is a year younger. And newer owners buy more software. Further Wii's are reliable whereas many 360's are afflicted by RROD.

#1 NPD that I can quickly recall: August 360 Madden, Sep 360 Star Wars FU, Oct Fable 2, Nov wll be Gears 2, Dec might very well be Gears 2 also (though Dec could be something like Wii play due to the enormous Wii hardware that will be sold).

So why isn't Wii grabbing the #1 spot? We can focus on this more narrowly. Out to the fact it's typically only seeing 2-3 slots in the top ten. 360 garnered 5 this month.

Each of, Wii Play, Wii Sports, Wii Fit, and Mario Kart just sells and sells, and they will all end up with ridiculous lifetime #'s, it's true. But it is not getting the #1 game.

I think it does show there is a difference in hardcore and casual.

 

[obonicus]

Gears is second tier? Seriously, we're talking about a game that's sold 5 million on its first chapter and looks forward to improve that on the second game. Has any PS3 game sold 5 million units yet?

Compared to Halo 3 it is. Halo's not only had a bigger launch, not only is it the face of Xbox, it's also wholly owned by MS, unlike GeoW -- it's the one that gets spinoffs and Mountain Dew flavors. The comparison, though phrased unfortunately, really isn't between games on different systems, but within the same library. MS is lucky that their 'secondary' big-hitter is enormous, but it's still secondary.

 

[fearsomepirate]

NPD YTD (Source:Gaf)
WII: 5.981.000
360: 2.459.000
PS3: 2.441.000
PS2: 1.887.000

HD consoles are only around 40% of game consoles sold for the year. Interesting to see how many more 3rd party platinum titles there are on Wii now as compared to a few months ago. I'm sure it didn't hurt to have Nintendo ease up on its own release schedule a bit. I wonder if any of those are Wiiware titles?

 

[patsu]

There is no universal definition for #1 game, Ranger.

Based on sales record, I am afraid some of those casual games have longer legs and probably cheaper to make.

Based on preference, the Wii audience may prefer things like WiiFit to Halo. There are more of them than us.

A peak in one month is an achievement but it doesn't really reflect the total picture.

 

[obonicus]

Lets just take this from a simpler perspective then. #1 in NPD game.

Well, that's shifting the goalposts a bit, don't you think? The Wii's selling software, both first party and third party, let's not waste time denying it. It has not yet proven that it can sell 'core' games like the other consoles can, which is the differentiating factor.

Publishers know where they stand with people who buy PS3s and 360s. Not even Nintendo is sure what the Wii audience will buy -- they didn't go for Wii Music, for instance.

 

[Vic]

Gears is second tier? Seriously, we're talking about a game that's sold 5 million on its first chapter and looks forward to improve that on the second game. Has any PS3 game sold 5 million units yet?

Please look a bit closer. I'm talking about the perception of the franchise in relation to Halo, much in the same way I feel R2 is compared to GT and KZ2 next year. Lets not start another 360 vs PS3 debate ffs...

 

[Rangers]

This doesn't look any better for Wii

Looks like Far Cry 2 was pretty much a-bomb? Release was 28th right?

 

[RobertR1]

Ouch at Far Cry 2.

Gears is establishing itself as an Elite franchise on the Level of GTA and Halo and so on. It'll absolutely crush Nov sales and likely do well in Dec and onwards. If anything, it compliments Halo as the face of the 360. As long as they stagger out the releases, the Gears/Halo is a great continuous punch for MS.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Looks like Far Cry 2 was pretty bomba?

What is 'bomba'? Jaa-jaa Binks speak for 'very good'? If you meant 'Far Cry 2's sales are shockingly low' then please write as much so the Englsih speaking world can follow the discussion.

 

[eastmen]

Nintendo's Sept 08 Financial Result Briefing. From there Nintendo provided the following:

I assume these would be shipped numbers, so actual sell-through million sellers would be lower.

So we know at least that total software in the US for 2008 has Wii outselling 360.

Its interesting in how few big titles the 360 had during that time period while the wii had mario kart , supersmash brothers and wii fit during that time. What the 360 have ? Too human. I wonder how numbers will change for the sept through january numbers

 

[silhouette]

Do we really consider Wii Play and Wii Fit as games? I bought Wii Play, because I need a second controller and with 10$ extra they throw me another game (which now I doubt it really worths). Wii Fit is also not a game, and I am not sure how many ppl buy it so that they can have different gaming experimence on skateboard/snowboarding kind of games. So, this only leaves Mario Kart in the first 10 and Gh4 in the second 10. One of them is again frist party and the second one is another party game...

I think Nintendo has long lost their core audience to 360/PS3. Pls note that, I am not saying that those ppl do not have a Wii.. They may still have one, but their main gaming platform becomes the HD consoles.

 

[Zassk]

Please look a bit closer. I'm talking about the perception of the franchise in relation to Halo, much in the same way I feel R2 is compared to GT and KZ2 next year. Lets not start another 360 vs PS3 debate ffs...

I'm not going to argue about whether Gears is top tier, but how on earth can you justify putting KZ2 in the same category as GT? It's totally unproven and its predecessor was a flop. In my opinion KZ2 has yet to earn consideration as a 2nd tier game, never mind 1st tier.