I think one thing we failed to notice on the graph Nintendo provided was the catch *And theres always a catch*. The sales are listed from Jan-Sept (Q1-Q3) When its well known that 50% of software sales and I would say this trend is especially true for the HD consoles happen in Q4.
NPD October 2008
- Thread starter RobertR1
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It's not up to us to determine from "up on high" for someone else what's a game or what's fun.
That just an arbitrary qualifier that really has nothing to do with whether or not the Wii is in fact selling selling software.
It's automatically 2nd tier because of budget and hype. It's still not nearly in the league of GT.
Budget is unknown but Gears 2 certainly had a ton of hype. It's certainly first tier and like I said, now into Elite franchise category. Franchises can certainly jump tiers. It might have started off as 2nd tier but clearly it's cemented it's place at the top. Everything starts somewhere.
scooby_dooby
Legend
I guess you have to view these 'tiers' in terms of region as well.
GT is probably way ahead in Europe, but in North America Gears 2 would probably sell as many, if not more units than GT5.
GT4 sold just under 3million here according to Wikipedia, I'm not sure what Gears sold in NA but it's probably around the same (5 million ww)...
I guess you could argue 1st tier is a game that dominates in all regions, in which case Gears is on the cusp but not in the same level as the higher profile Japanese titles.
I'd say it's saner to wait for October sales to really declare what tier GeoW2 is -- compared to Halo 3, remember. There was definitely less fanfare over GeoW2 than there was over Halo 3. Maybe because Microsoft was reshaping its priorities and investing a lot more in marketing 'social' games. Maybe because Epic decided to keep it more subdued than Bungie. That doesn't change the facts.
And I don't doubt that this is in part because Microsoft realizes that if they go too crazy over GeoW2 it does have a chance of overshadowing their own IP. And in a world where the third party exclusive is dying, that could be bad indeed.
Well, it's not just sales, as I see it, or even marketing. Gran Turismo has mindshare. It's the racing game, regardless if there are better games or not. It's the reason to buy a console. Maybe not in the US; in the US I don't know what that'd be. Final Fantasy? GTA? Other regions, possibly Europe as well also had PES/WE as the reason to buy a PS2 -- and often, subsequently a PS3. Again, irrespective of the quality of the game when compared to competitors. There it's sort of funny how even though PES has been multiplat for a long time, it's still associated heavily with the PS brand.
Gears isn't going anywhere else than MS platforms. It's becoming the face of the Xbox in the same respect that Master Chief is and will continue to be. Gears 1 is over 5million and that certainly qualifies it as Tier 1 in my book and likely the case for most others. I see no reason why Gears 2 won't hit at least Gears 1 numbers. Frankly, Halo isn't a benchmark, it's a rare exception. However, speaking of Gears and the Halo franchise even in the same context show just how established the Gears franchise is.
In my mind, the budget and hype that have gone into KZ2 make it a top-tier game, along with the likes of LBP, MGS4 and GT on the PS3.
I see it doing 4-5m, and I think its European origins will help, but it'll be interesting to see how it actually does.
Isnt the next one open in terms of platform now? Besides, nothing can be taken for granted in gaming.
In any case, its not all about sales (though Halo had comfortably outsold Gears at this point) its about perception. There was a lot less hype surrounding GOW2 than there was for Halo 3 last year, here in London.
Why wouldn't it? Wasn't the publishing contract two games (actually, I have no idea, but I've heard that bandied about, probably just something 'people know')? Isn't Epic now free to do whatever they want? It may not be likely right now, but taking a dogmatic stance over franchise 'loyalty' didn't work well for DMC fans, FF fans or GTA fans.
Gears certainly is a huge title. Maybe it is first tier, but just believing really hard doesn't make it so. It does fit many of the prerequisites I've mentioned. On the other hand, if it's first tier, what's Halo 3? It certainly is Microsoft's flagship, which is where this conversation started. It's the face of Xbox. While GT isn't quite the face of PS the same way (there's no single identifiable character to center the franchise around) it is intrinsically linked with the brand.
We can talk about these things in the same context because they're games. Not just games, games on the same platform aimed at similar audiences. Comparing them does not make them equal.
DuckThor Evil
Legend
Well Epic surely is in a good position when they do negotions with MS, but with Gears I'd be willing to quess that MS will pony up some cash to keep it exclusive, if necessary. I also think Epic has been fairly happy with how things have gone with Gears and MS, so at this point in time, I'm thinking it'll stay exclusive.
Your examples are of course fine, but those have gone from Sony to multiplatform and thus aren't great example of MS losing its' key title. It seems MS is more willing to purchase 3rd party exclusives or make them multiplat.
It's likely that it'll continue with MS, I just think that MS is aware that the chance is there, so they're not going to try TOO hard to build up someone else's IP. And I don't think anyone should take any sort of third-party exclusivity for granted.
Well, I think it's pretty safe to say there's zero probability of GeoW ever becoming a non-MS exclusive (as long as MS is in the console market). But becoming non-MS exclusive is bad enough; it'd be exactly like the games I mentioned. GeoW is a reason to buy a 360. If GeoW3 is multiplat, you lose this reason, just as Sony lost three reasons to buy a PS3 when those three titles went multiplat.
I would amend this to Gears isn't going anywhere else as long as MS doesn't allow it to. Epic isn't a publisher, they're a developer and as such for Gears to go multiplatform a publisher other than MS would have to secure the rights. In terms of a bidding war a platform holder has an in-built advantage when it comes to offering better financial terms since they can eat the royalties that they would charge a third-party publisher. In this way Epic (at least with the Gears franchise) are in a very similar situation to Insomniac. And given the results of UTIII vs. Gears 1 & 2, I'd think Epic finds MS to be a much more attractive publishing partner than Midway.
specwarGP2
Regular
Gears of War is definitely not in the same league as Gran Turismo. Mindshare for GT is on a completely different level.
Insomniac could easily jump ship any day. It's naive to suppose that they never would. But if they did, I don't think they'd own any IP. All a third-party publisher would get would be a very solid dev-house with a ton of PS3 experience to work on non-Sony IP.
Epic would bring with it GeoW, which, as Robert mentioned, is a massive, massive franchise. Could they get better-than-normal terms from a third party? Maybe. It comes down to what makes more financial sense to them. That's why it's reckless to state as a matter of fact that GeoW will never be on a non-MS platform. That'll only be certain if MS buys the IP or Epic (and I think both would be really really expensive).
lazybum131
Newcomer
Joke post, or are you serious? The 360 had the following games in that time period that made the NPD top 10. All but Madden and The Forced Unleashed are HD-exclusive at the moment (RB2 still isn't out for Wii).
Burnout Paradise
Devil May Cry 4
Army of Two
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Vegas 2
Grand Theft Auto IV
Ninja Gaiden II
Battlefield: Bad Company
NCAA Football 09
Soul Calibur IV
Civilization Revolution
Madden NFL 09
Rock Band 2
Star Wars: The Force Unleashed
I don't see how the above list is at any disadvantage against Smash Bros., Wii Fit, Mario Kart, and Wii third-party.
Really Really Expensive? I dunno, Epic has <100 employees, and it's a private company. I suspect MS could buy them with a fraction of the profit we make a quarter. Not that I think it's likely to happen, considering we let Bungie go and closed down Ensemble, both groups with wildly successful products.
If I were a guessin' man, and I am, I would suggest that Microsoft wants to add value to the platform with non-game properties like Netflix and Primetime, and target their game properties at more casual games, like Lips, Scene It, and pretty much anything Rare does. Even Fable 2 is more casual targeted than Core gamer targeted.
We've got the hardcore gamers now, we're over 10 million in the US and equalled the original XBox worldwide, what we need now are the PS2 gamers who buy DDR and Singstar, and the Wii gamers who buy... uhh... peripherals... apparently. Spending a lot of First Party money on catering to a demographic you already have, and that the third parties are doing a damn good job of satisfying just seems silly.
In the early stages of a console, specific games sell them (MGS4, Halo), in the mass market stages, the _number_ of games sells the console, in my opinion, and you can create a lot of good, more casual, titles with the same resources and budget that you would have to allocate to a single AAA core title.
Just my opinions, of course.
(Now, bringing Epic on board to leverage it's impressive game engine knowledge and have them spend a lot of time making it a primary XBox 360 development platform could make sense, although it would be sad if most of the games started looking the same...)
Rein mentioned something ridiculous like 2 billion, but I doubt he was serious. GeoW would cost less, but since it's the strongest IP Epic actually has (not including Jill of the Jungle, naturally), they're not likely to part with it cheaply. So no doubt it's not 2 billion, but also one has to assume that the gaming division doesn't have access to Microsoft's billions and billions either, or rather, that they're not gonna spend it like that. Several hundred million dollars (if not more) isn't the sort of investment you recoup easily in the gaming industry, even if you're Nintendo.
If I were a guessin' man, and I am, I would suggest that Microsoft wants to add value to the platform with non-game properties like Netflix and Primetime, and target their game properties at more casual games, like Lips, Scene It, and pretty much anything Rare does. Even Fable 2 is more casual targeted than Core gamer targeted.
We've got the hardcore gamers now, we're over 10 million in the US and equalled the original XBox worldwide, what we need now are the PS2 gamers who buy DDR and Singstar, and the Wii gamers who buy... uhh... peripherals... apparently. Spending a lot of First Party money on catering to a demographic you already have, and that the third parties are doing a damn good job of satisfying just seems silly.
In the early stages of a console, specific games sell them (MGS4, Halo), in the mass market stages, the _number_ of games sells the console, in my opinion, and you can create a lot of good, more casual, titles with the same resources and budget that you would have to allocate to a single AAA core title.
Just my opinions, of course.
And I agree with all of this. At this point, I even wonder if MS has any interest in keeping GeoW from going multiplat (well, they do, naturally), considering their much heavier focus on the non-enthusiasts this holiday. On the other hand, GeoW is the sort of ace in the hole you want to have when you're trying to convince people to leap to the Xbox 720.
It'd still be expensive, they'd have little use for most of the PS3 engine stuff which they're actually paying for and it'd probably wipe out the profits that MGS is just now seeing. I even wonder what sort of returns they'd see on this.
Lazy or just joke post
You listed one platform exclusive game. Compared to 3 platform exclusive games I listed. Some of them that you listed like rock band had 2 weeks of reporting time in that thread with only 1 of the 3 planned skus out . SW TFU came on onsept 16th and its sales were split onto two platforms. Then you go on to list things like Madden nfl 09 ? Did you forget this also was on the wii and hte wii also had an extra sku for this ?
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