NPD August 2007

[RancidLunchmeat]

From what I can tell, most households that have PS2s aren't in a hurry to replace their PS2, but when they do, are definitely looking at a PS3 first.

That's not an occurrence I have noticed in reality, only one that is mentioned in online forums.

From what I can tell, most households that have PS2s, have them for the racers, shooters, sports, and GTA titles. Those households are certainly considering or have already moved on to the 360 instead of the PS3.

I think the Madden sales are a true indication of that. Despite the confusion that often arises with discussion of the Wii brand and the label of 'casuals', casual gamers make up the majority of console owners, they often purchase consoles at a discount rather than a premium and they tend to purchase what elites would deem as 'shovelware': sports, racers, shooters, etc.

That's the majority of the PS2 market in NA, and that's the market that the 360 had set its sights on and that's the market that is moving to the 360 as is beginning to be illustrated in the sales figures.

Unless the PS3 can compete on price for that market, NA is lost to them.

I think the notion that there 50M or even 10M (inside the US) PS2 users who won't consider a 360 to play their EA sports games and whatnot is far-fetched.

 

[Vic]

Months ago I would have agreed with you, but it seems momentum is a long lost friend to ps3.

The big hitters have been slow to arrive and when they have arrived, haven't been all that big.

I truly expected their AAA titles to be rakin in the cash and awards, but they've fallen short while xb360 has contued to push on with quality software that's selling by the boat load.

I'm sure 3rd party devs haven't been blind to this continuing trend.

What, you mean Resistance, Warhawk and Motorstorm?

The real big-hitters have not been released. KZ2, GT5, FFXIII, MGS4, Tekken 6 and the Getaway are the big ones. Judge the PS3 when they have come out.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

What, you mean Resistance, Warhawk and Motorstorm?

The real big-hitters have not been released. KZ2, GT5, FFXIII, MGS4, Tekken 6 and the Getaway are the big ones. Judge the PS3 when they have come out.

If that is true, then wouldn't it be fair to say the same about the 360?

What "big-hitters" have been released for the 360?

 

[Vic]

One thing manufacturer should realize is that if you are going to launch late, you NEED to come out with guns blazing on the software side to draw attention.

The Wii actually did a good job of that with Zelda. Also, adding Wii sports to the package was simply brilliant.

You are joking arent you? Zelda is very good from what I've played. Wii Sports does a good job of showcasing the motion controls, but is limited/sometimes inaccurate and hardly AAA. Other than them and Metroid, the Wii software has been pretty much garbage.

The Wii has sold through a good combination of good marketing, low price and a new control method.

 

[TheChefO]

I think the notion that there 50M or even 10M (inside the US) PS2 users who won't consider a 360 to play their EA sports games and whatnot is far-fetched.

yep

What, you mean Resistance, Warhawk and Motorstorm?

The real big-hitters have not been released. KZ2, GT5, FFXIII, MGS4, Tekken 6 and the Getaway are the big ones. Judge the PS3 when they have come out.

That's exactly what I'm talking about. Either the big titles haven't come, or the ones they were banking on have failed to be the system sellers they were expecting. Either way they are in trouble as the market won't sit still waiting for anyone to get their act together.

A buddy of mine at work (big Sony fan/supporter) and I were discussing this a while ago. Sony should have started work on GoW2 on the ps3 platform right after GoW1. If they did and had to push the release back to this Christmas, at least they would be sitting on a title that people recognize, respect, and buy.

Too many arrogant mistakes made by Sony management this gen.

If that is true, then wouldn't it be fair to say the same about the 360?

What "big-hitters" have been released for the 360?

Good point.

MS has released a few to fill the void, but their biggest hit has yet to come.



I think the most important thing MS has done with xb360 is taken away reasons for a casual ps2 owner to disregard their system. They have good quality racers (deep and shallow), shooters, RPG's, and sports games. Most of which are playable online with a friend.

Only thing missing is a mainstream pricepoint.

 

[Vic]

If that is true, then wouldn't it be fair to say the same about the 360?

What "big-hitters" have been released for the 360?

Erm..Gears, Forza and Bioshock.

My point is, to make continuous comparisons between the PS3 and 360 software library's is pointless. 360 has been on the market for a year longer, and as a PS3 owner, I and many other are willing and happy to wait for the big-hitters to be released. Thats part of the territory when a machine is new. The PS2 wasnt any different. Bear in mind, based on when it was released, PS3 is also likely to be supported longer than its two competitors.

2007 will be good for the PS3, with GT Prologue, R&C, Heavenly Sword, Uncharted, Haze, Unreal Tournament and Eye of the Judgement.

2008 will be amazing, possibly the best of all three consoles. Therefore, its far too early to be writing off the PS3.

 

[TheChefO]

2008 will be amazing, possibly the best of all three consoles. Therefore, its far too early to be writing off the PS3.

2008 will be amazing - I agree.

But at this point they will be facing a sub $200 console in xb360 and likely Wii as well. Neither of which will ease off the pedal and will likely have a "pretty good" lineup as well.

I think Sony will be hard pressed, but they will manage to get ps3 down to $300 in 2008, but at the same time, they will be facing stiff competition still from MS and N on the software and hardware fronts.

I haven't written Sony off, but I did remove their name from the top of the pile.

 

[DUALDISASTER]

Joshua Luna, no offense but through-out this thread you've been sounding like an ad for mircosoft. What i've stated had nothing to do with me prefering a console and more about correcting uneducated guesses. You like to sum up the market into what you want it to be. Yes people are fickle, but then people are many things like loyal, appreciative, and receptive to our suroundings. We're not that simple. There are a lot of people that like the feel of the ps controller and menu. Yes, it's simple but yet relevant. I can not get into a xbox game because it's not familar territory, controller wise. You mentioned games that has a very xbox feel to it, and that's why in a 2 year period xbox360 only gotten as far as 8 mil. It's like a cliche, xbox fans will stick with xbox and ps to ps, and that's a lot of people. It's not hope or faith, it's the way it is. There's a lot of new things coming out for ps3 and you just completely overlook them. You say 360 has great games coming out in 08 too (which they do) but they are so playing it safe. The console is virtually an xbox all over again. Eventually it will bite them in the ass when the perception of 360 playing catch-up(elite) starts to look like plagiarism. And that's why i believe the playstation hasn't lost much, once all the cards are out then and only then can we can comment on an such outcome. Aleast joshua, give them time to do that.

 

[Arwin]

If Blue-Ray does not succeed, having it may be just as useful as if the PS1 had a Betamax player.

I mean for games. I think that a God of War 3 or Heavenly Sword 2 or a similar game is going to fill a 50GB disc, and you'll be able to tell it does so too.

 

[Vic]

yep


That's exactly what I'm talking about. Either the big titles haven't come, or the ones they were banking on have failed to be the system sellers they were expecting. Either way they are in trouble as the market won't sit still waiting for anyone to get their act together.

QUOTE]


I very much doubt that Sony was expecting any of its current exclusives to be system-sellers. The first game I would have thought that they would have this expectation for is Heavenly Sword, and that has only just been released.

Bit too early to be writing off Sony's huge first-party support methinks.

 

[Arwin]

Let's not forget that a system seller doesn't have to score 9/10 either.

 

[Vic]

2008 will be amazing - I agree.

But at this point they will be facing a sub $200 console in xb360 and likely Wii as well. Neither of which will ease off the pedal and will likely have a "pretty good" lineup as well.

I think Sony will be hard pressed, but they will manage to get ps3 down to $300 in 2008, but at the same time, they will be facing stiff competition still from MS and N on the software and hardware fronts.

I haven't written Sony off, but I did remove their name from the top of the pile.

I'm talking the first quarter of 2008 when KZ2 and MGS 4 are expected.

Anyway, what makes you think MS will do another drop when they have been so slow to make their initial price-drop, have just written off $1bn in warrantly extensions and have just released the higher-price Elite model?

 

[TheChefO]

...they are so playing it safe...

Ms has been playing this entire gen safe.

They've analyzed the market and seen what works and what doesn't. They've seen where they need to grow and diversify and have attempted to do so.

So far, you can't argue with the results.

On the other hand ...



There are a few things MS needs to do better, and I'm sure they are working on it. But as they say, there is a time and place for everything. When they hit mainstream pricing, I think you will see them being more aggressive on platformers and experimental games.

In the meantime, they're doing pretty well for themselves.

 

[DVFtaxman]

What, you mean Resistance, Warhawk and Motorstorm?

The real big-hitters have not been released. KZ2, GT5, FFXIII, MGS4, Tekken 6 and the Getaway are the big ones. Judge the PS3 when they have come out.

I'm curious as to what justifies KZ2 or The Getaway as being regarded "big hitters" or AAA, as this is something I've seen a lot lately? Is it merely off the back off those few prerelease screenshots/videos from about 12 months ago? Surely recent history (Heavenly Sword and Lair) would go some way to proving that this is by no means a good way to judge a potential "AAA" release? .........and let's face it, it's not as if either has a history to supplement such high regard?

 

[TheChefO]

I'm talking the first quarter of 2008 when KZ2 and MGS 4 are expected.

Anyway, what makes you think MS will do another drop when they have been so slow to make their initial price-drop, have just written off $1bn in warrantly extensions and have just released the higher-price Elite model?

KZ2 is expected in q1??? I thought that was a q4 title ...


Price drop for MS will be reactionary from this point forth IMO. IF sony drops, MS will follow. I expect Sony will hit $300 and MS will respond.

 

[aselto]

It has no motion control (cf Wii / PS3), no Bluray (cf PS3). It does have Live, but it's not free and it's not always better even than PSN (cf big online games with 32-40 players like Resistance and Warhawk). (No Browser either, though at this stage probably not that important.) No HDD as default either. These things aren't going to hurt in the beginning, but they will start hurting more and more.

And how is that? You could argue that PS3's limited waggle options are going to hurt PS3 more and more. You could argue that no DVD playback in Wii is going to hurt it more and more. You could argue that the fact that you succesfully connect with a server in Warhawk 1 time every 10 times you try to is going to hurt PS3 more and more. And so on and so on. Why do you artificially create issues with 360?

I'm just kidding - but it was interesting to see that the Amiga overtook the Atari ST fairly late in its cycle (was it the 4th year?), but then kept on going for several years still. It's just one example of why I strongly disagree with Joshua. A console can do very well initially, but then it can just stop selling.

Or a console can do very badly initially, like selling under 100k on the biggest market 3 months in a row and then stop selling? You are out your mind if you really believe that people at Nintendo and Microsoft would let their momentum disappear just like that - the momentum they have been working really hard to gain.

The PS3 has a lot of things going for it, not in the least compatibility with all the previous Playstations, compatibility with all kinds of movie format(????), Browser, Motion Control, BluRay, HDD by default, and some awesome games coming up spanning a vast range of different genres and many with very established names.

You can't even watch a divx video on your PS3 (not to mention HDDVD). Stop making up PS3 advantages.

The Wii has a lot of things going for it, not in the least compatibility with Gamecube, Wii Channel, Browser, not crippled Motion Control, Rumble, flesh memory by default,Virtual Console which has incredible amount of classic games, and some awesome games coming up spanning a vast range of different genres and many with very established names, including the biggest franchises on the planet such as Pokemon, Super Mario, Smash Bros.

The 360 has a lot of things going for it, not in the least compatibility with Xbox, DVD, wmv and h264 support, Rumble, Video Marketplace, Live Arcade with a new release every week, and some awesome games coming up spanning a vast range of different genres and many with very established names and IPTV coming soon.

These consoles are on different timelines. And I'll be so bold as to say that the closer the consoles get to each other in price, the better things will look for the PS3. Under the current circumstances, time is on the PS3's side. The 360 needs to distance itself a lot further from the PS3 right now, because once both consoles get under 299, price will no longer be relevant among them.

Price will definitely be revelant then, even moreso then ever. Microsoft had to immediately counteract every PS2 pricedrop at the time and they were both way beneath $300 pricepoint. $199->$169 price cut immensely helped PSP sales, $149->$129 caused massive spike in NintendoDS and PS2 sales.

 

[liolio]

yep


That's exactly what I'm talking about. Either the big titles haven't come, or the ones they were banking on have failed to be the system sellers they were expecting. Either way they are in trouble as the market won't sit still waiting for anyone to get their act together.

I very much doubt that Sony was expecting any of its current exclusives to be system-sellers. The first game I would have thought that they would have this expectation for is Heavenly Sword, and that has only just been released.

Bit too early to be writing off Sony's huge first-party support methinks.

You know you're right sony expected to sell 5 millions units without games... by march...

This is scarcam but you're almost saying that everything come smoothly together for Sony witch is a joke.

As for 2008 Sony has enough good game to do well to very well.
But i don't believe it will come on top (price again...).

 

[Scott_Arm]

That's not an occurrence I have noticed in reality, only one that is mentioned in online forums.

From what I can tell, most households that have PS2s, have them for the racers, shooters, sports, and GTA titles. Those households are certainly considering or have already moved on to the 360 instead of the PS3.

I think the Madden sales are a true indication of that. Despite the confusion that often arises with discussion of the Wii brand and the label of 'casuals', casual gamers make up the majority of console owners, they often purchase consoles at a discount rather than a premium and they tend to purchase what elites would deem as 'shovelware': sports, racers, shooters, etc.

That's the majority of the PS2 market in NA, and that's the market that the 360 had set its sights on and that's the market that is moving to the 360 as is beginning to be illustrated in the sales figures.

Unless the PS3 can compete on price for that market, NA is lost to them.

I think the notion that there 50M or even 10M (inside the US) PS2 users who won't consider a 360 to play their EA sports games and whatnot is far-fetched.

Good post. I totally agree with you.

360 is going to have a pretty strong library of games when it hits a mainstream price. Sony will no doubt sell a lot of systems, but if you believe it's at all important for Sony to "catch up" in sales, then they're going to have a tough time of it.

I guess in business, nobody wants to lose the type of dominance that Sony had, but that doesn't mean the PS3 won't be a success. I still think they would have been better served to release a more straightforward system, earlier, and just crank out the games.

I don't buy into any arguments than any of the 3 home systems are suddenly going to flop.

 

[Vic]

I'm curious as to what justifies KZ2 or The Getaway as being regarded "big hitters" or AAA, as this is something I've seen a lot lately? Is it merely off the back off those few prerelease screenshots/videos from about 12 months ago? Surely recent history (Heavenly Sword and Lair) would go some way to proving that this is by no means a good way to judge a potential "AAA" release? .........and let's face it, it's not as if either has a history to supplement such high regard?

Their PS2 predecessors went platinum, so I think thats make the claim justifiable.

As regards Lair and HS, neither have been released, so to write off their impact is premature.

 

[Arwin]

That's not an occurrence I have noticed in reality, only one that is mentioned in online forums.

From what I can tell, most households that have PS2s, have them for the racers, shooters, sports, and GTA titles. Those households are certainly considering or have already moved on to the 360 instead of the PS3.

They have? There are nearly 30 million households with Xbox 1s alone, and even that figure is already 2 x all 360s, Wiis and PS3s sold combined.

That's the majority of the PS2 market in NA, and that's the market that the 360 had set its sights on and that's the market that is moving to the 360 as is beginning to be illustrated in the sales figures.

Nuh-uh.

I think the notion that there 50M or even 10M (inside the US) PS2 users who won't consider a 360 to play their EA sports games and whatnot is far-fetched.

Why? That's just about half the PS2 userbase (excluding replacements, broken consoles and what not). I think if 50% do consider the 360 seriously as an alternative after they previously owned a PS2 (and likely even a PS1), that's quite a lot and a big success for Microsoft.

Anyway, I was talking about personal experience here in Europe. I'm just seeing just about everyone move from PS2 to PS3.

EDIT: Mind you, I do expect the 360 to do better in the US than the Xbox1, especially in the next few years. The Xbox1 gained a good mindshare in the US last gen. I can see the 360 do close to what the PS2 did last gen in the US. I'm just thinking that the PS3 will do the same, at least, and better in the other regions.