NPD August 2007

[liuelson]

At this point I don't know if PS has lost much brand ground to Wii. It's probably lost some, which isn't hard because before Wii, Nintendo held no mindshare in console gaming! I don't have any anecdotal experience of people talking about one or other brand either. It's not a topic I've come across in the ordinary public. I don't think Wii has become synonymous with gaming though, and I think the PS brand is still very robust.

Some data on this point: BrandIntel report, Digg analysis suggests Wii is indeed taking mindshare away from the HD consoles.

 

[JardeL]

One thing manufacturer should realize is that if you are going to launch late, you NEED to come out with guns blazing on the software side to draw attention.

The Wii actually did a good job of that with Zelda. Also, adding Wii sports to the package was simply brilliant.

I agree with your first paragraph but disagree with second ...

With its revolutionary controller Wii had not need strong software for launch , imo... A game like Wii Sports is enough for launch for a Wii-type revolutionary system ...

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Shifty: I think that Ford/Porsche analogy is, at the very least, completely ridiculous. There's a massive difference in quality and technical specs between the two that simply does not exist in PS3 vs Xbox 360.

It wasn't trying to be an analogy of the consoles themselves, but the way the market works. Of course things are different from the car example, but the principle is the same. You can be not being bought, but still perceived as the product of choice if only you had the money. One can also, if one wants, go on to talk about technical specs, and definitely build quality, differences that do exist... But that's a discussion with no merit IMO. Point is, with all this talk of brands, brand value isn't necessarily something that drives sales - it drives awareness.

Some data on this point: BrandIntel report, Digg analysis suggests Wii is indeed taking mindshare away from the HD consoles.

That report has already been mentioned on this board. It measures posting habits on internet use, recording the number of 'Oh my god this is the bestest thing EVAR!!1!1!1oneone' and 'Ugh, what a load of @#$%&*' comments. That shows what people are talking about and reacting to, but doesn't show the state of the brands. Note I'm not mixing brand awareness or identity up with popularity, because they're two different things. Wii's success doesn't, IMO, take away from the PS brand. The fact that Wii is selling well doesn't PS3 a rubbish console with no games and the few games it has stutter and look awful and it breaks down a lot too. Those are things that would damage the PS3 brand. Porsche doesn't lose its image of good quality because Toyota also have an increasing image of quality. Brand isn't a balance scale that has to total 1.0 across all competing identities. That's popularity. Now mindshare is a point that Wii can take away from, as it's the talking point, and eventually everyone's going to forget PlayStation ever existed, all spending all their time playing with Wii...

 

[DUALDISASTER]

You guys, the same ones that post in every "sony has less than whoever" threads are so short sighted! You all know those sells weren't triggered by the small $50 price drop. There were alot of things going on in that month for ms. And even farther, the ps3 is still $500, and it's bad month to spend that kind of $. Farther more the so called AAA titles received average scores, so they were not must haves. Have you forgotten about the real FF? Have you forgotten about Home? And what about socom and GOW3? Mgs4, gt5 anyone? As for HALO, most people who bought a 360 a year ago wanted Halo, so i don't see this as a major boost in hw sell. You people need to gather all the facts, calculate it and come back with smarter guesses.

 

[TheChefO]

If the 360's software isn't appealing to PS2 owners, I don't see how in general the PS3 is fairing any better.

Exactly.

Aside from the obvious there, I'd also say it's interesting to look at where Sony is putting their "eggs" so to speak.

Early on in a consoles lifespan, one would expect they are trying to convince passers by that they should buy (or invest) in a ps3. Considering the price, the offering has to be pretty compelling compared to past consoles (and others available currently).

I agree with their philosophy of experimentation and diversity, but honestly, is LBP going to move $500 systems? How about R&C? The list goes on.

IMO, these are games you bring after a couple years when you've already established the basic genre's that everyone looks for. At a price premium above their competition, one would expect these basic genre offerings to be above and beyond their competition as well.

So far though, they've lagged behind in RPG's, shooters, racers, etc when these types of games sell to the demographic that can afford to shell out $500 for a system.


Overall, I think they're really screwing up on their priorities and while I can appreciate the fact they may want to differentiate themselves from MS by not focusing on these tried and true genres, at the same time they are missing the boat on what moves a system early in it's life and especially at such a high pricepoint.

KZ2 is a step in the right direction. GT needs to be killer. Where are the RPG's?

 

[TheChefO]

You guys, the same ones that post in every "sony has less than whoever" threads are so short sighted! You all know those sells weren't triggered by the small $50 price drop. There were alot of things going on in that month for ms. And even farther, the ps3 is still $500, and it's bad month to spend that kind of $. Farther more the so called AAA titles received average scores, so they were not must haves. Have you forgotten about the real FF? Have you forgotten about Home? And what about socom and GOW3? Mgs4, gt5 anyone? As for HALO, most people who bought a 360 a year ago wanted Halo, so i don't see this as a major boost in hw sell. You people need to gather all the facts, calculate it and come back with smarter guesses.

While I can respect that viewpoint, one could say the same about most any past popular game series.

Have people forgotten:
Sonic?
Mario?
Excite bike?
Streets of Rage?
etc
etc

There are anchor/pillar titles that hold the legs up on a console, but the table top is made from many miniscule, obscure 3rd party titles. If those pillar titles were available at launch or even before Christmas this year, I'd agree the ps3 has a real shot to be in this race, but they've missed the boat. They will have strong sales next year and will make up some lost sales, but the lesson to be learned of this gen is timing.

Timing of the launch, timing of internal studio development for pillar AAA titles, and timing for mainstream price.

Good thing for Sony is next gen is looking bright and ps4 (if executed properly) will reclaim the crown.

 

[dobwal]

You guys, the same ones that post in every "sony has less than whoever" threads are so short sighted! You all know those sells weren't triggered by the small $50 price drop. There were alot of things going on in that month for ms. And even farther, the ps3 is still $500, and it's bad month to spend that kind of $. Farther more the so called AAA titles received average scores, so they were not must haves. Have you forgotten about the real FF? Have you forgotten about Home? And what about socom and GOW3? Mgs4, gt5 anyone? As for HALO, most people who bought a 360 a year ago wanted Halo, so i don't see this as a major boost in hw sell. You people need to gather all the facts, calculate it and come back with smarter guesses.

Its understandable that one could look at GOW3, MGS4, GT5 and FF and surmise that the PS3 current situation will turn around for the better and out do its competitors.

But its is also understandable to look at the PS1/N64 and see those upcoming titles doesn't guarantee anything. Nintendo's brands such as Mario (who popularity and awareness going into that generation trumphs those titles, you mentioned, combined) and Zelda did little to stem the momentum of the PS1.

If Halo is not going to generate sales because gamers having been buying the 360 for Halo3 all along then why are people buying the PS3? How can you point to future titles on the PS3 and says those games will sell PS3es and then point to the most popular title on the Xbox and one of the most popular regardless of console last generation and say the opposite.

 

[liolio]

You guys, the same ones that post in every "sony has less than whoever" threads are so short sighted! You all know those sells weren't triggered by the small $50 price drop. There were alot of things going on in that month for ms. And even farther, the ps3 is still $500, and it's bad month to spend that kind of $. Farther more the so called AAA titles received average scores, so they were not must haves. Have you forgotten about the real FF? Have you forgotten about Home? And what about socom and GOW3? Mgs4, gt5 anyone? As for HALO, most people who bought a 360 a year ago wanted Halo, so i don't see this as a major boost in hw sell. You people need to gather all the facts, calculate it and come back with smarter guesses.

I agree for the Halo III case.

But I feel that not only AAA titles sells hardware.
At some point consumer get bored, he need something new for the sake of having something new.
Lot of people will want "something new" this christmass, I tend to think that mainstream/ casual gamers are not as picky as us, They are more like " ok this system is affordable, seems to have some hype about it, has quiet some game, and it's affordable==> one system sold.

the Wii /and the 360 will be pretty affordable in US and I guess we will see interesting bundle.
AAA titles as well as internet talk/friends/ads help to built some hype around a system, but I'm not sure they sold that many systems on their own ( some big titles help the transition to a new system but few mainstream gamers buy a system for one game).

I guess "newess" (in regard to the "some years old system that sit in the living room) and affordale pricing is what sells systems actually.

 

[Acert93]

But I agree with you that time is running out, there's only so long you can go without gaining momentum until you do permanent damage.

Ok, Sony drops down to $399 for the holiday.

Does that gain them more momentum over MS in NA?

If so, how? Does Sony have more compelling software? More accessible pricing?

I don't think Sony can catch MS's holiday momentum, let alone their install base lead in NA. Just my opinion, but I think Sony won't regain NA leadership with the PS3. In my mind that is already settled; the real question in my mind is how much will Sony lag? Is the 360 install base/software sales going to hit a NA critical mass with publishers and consumers? If it does momentum could push further disparity.

They're doing a lot worse then the first Xbox in the US. Xbox sold 3 million units in the first 12 months, PS3 is at 1.8 million in 10 months and it's very unlikely that they can sell 600K in both september and october.

I will add to this: I think last generation showed it is better to be strong in 1 territory than average in 3. The Xbox was strong in NA and weak in Europe and absent from Japan. The GCN was pretty average in all 3.

Many titles appeal strongly upon demographic lines. Madden is a strong NA title. FIFA/PES a strong Euro title. I would bet most publishers would prefer a platform with modest sales (e.g. GCN/Xbox like ones) to be much stronger in 1 territory than average in all 3.

it covers a wider range AFAICS than XB360 or Wii

Misconception that I think scoob refuted quite nicely in the July thread.

Which other platform boasts a ...

How about a pinata farm? Or any one of the other many odd games out there.

The point Phil was making is that PS3 certainly won't be behind the others in terms of diversity, so library depth isn't a worry for PS3 as a games platform.

Important nitpick: Depth != Diversity.

Console A hits 10 genres, each with 1 title.

Console B hits 5 genres, each with 10 titles.

Console A has diversity and little depth. Console B has less diversity but significant depth.

But genre counting is only part of the picture--some genres are FAR more important, as noted by sales. Ditto certain hit titles. I would take one GTA PS2 title in regards to unit sales and the effect on hardware sales over ten 1M sellers.

Anyhow, if you want to play a JRPG today what platform would you buy today? Western RPG? Sports game? Arcade game? FPS? RTS? Racing game?

In terms of software Sony is behind MS in terms of general breadth, depth, and price. They year headstart is a big part of that, partly a startup/difficulty issue, as well as Sony's/MS's investment into next gen. Sony rode the PS2 much longer than MS did the Xbox. MS has a pretty weak internal studio situation, so their continued ho-hum 1st party effort isn't surprising. Sony's weak Holiday #2 PS3 showing, on the other hand, is a bit more shocking.

Isn't that quite a sweeping generalization?

Yet it must be conceeded that the PS3 has lost more established IPs to multiplatform (even exclusive) arrangements than gained. Ace Combat, Devil May Cry, Grand Theft Auto, Katamari, Assassin's Creed, Virtua Fighters, and so forth.

The biggest exclusivity loss is GTA

It was also the PS2's biggest franchise by a landslide.

And while it is worth noting there are PS3 exclusive developers, there is the same thing going on over on the other side of the fence.

At this point I don't know if PS has lost much brand ground to Wii. It's probably lost some, which isn't hard because before Wii, Nintendo held no mindshare in console gaming!

0_o

You are kidding, right? Nintendo was once a synonymn for video games and the GCN, with the weakest software lineup over the last 5 years (IMO), went blow for blow with MS for a long time. So Nintendo wasn't totally out of the picture... yet non-GCN owners are buying the Wii. It is the casual platform. Something the PlayStation was.

If you were looking for a gift for a child or a very casual gamer you would certainly get a Wii and not a PS3. The sales information and mindshare reports support this. The Wii has absolutely moved in on PlayStation mindshare.

Gamers are fickle, and casual gamers hold no bonds. The Wii is known to everyone and has an image that resonates in a way the 360 and PS3 totally fail at.

Price is a factor, but I definately see how perception about the Wii has stormed the American consumer into mindshare territory Nintendo hasn't wandered into in over a decade. Seeing as the Porche (PS3) won't be the price of a Ford (Wii) anytime soon the analogy is broken anyhow.

 

[TheChefO]

... yet non-GCN owners are buying the Wii. It is the casual platform. Something the PlayStation was.

The Wii has absolutely moved in on PlayStation mindshare.

This is something I was just talking with liolio about.
How many "typical gamers" do you think there were last gen? (ie, not casual, bought the system but maybe bought one game, play it once in a blue moon)

Agree 100% on your $400 momentum comment too. That's what I was saying regarding their software lineup. It's shocking and disappointing that Sony is so thin on their offerings this year. This was their strength! I'm guessing 2008 (aside from the obvious) will be when the floodgates open, but it will be too late at that point IMO.


Great post as always BTW... :smile: {jealus/envy}

 

[Acert93]

And even farther, the ps3 is still $500, and it's bad month to spend that kind of $.

A Porche priced competitively against a Ford would sell better.

The the Porche is more expensive and always will be.

The pricing dynamic is completely relevant and won't disappear. Sony is going to move to $399, and MS is going to jump to $299. When Sony is in position to move to $299 MS is going to whip down to $199.

By the time pricing disparity is irrelevant (~ $149-$199 range for the PS3) the game is over in terms of market share.

Farther more the so called AAA titles received average scores, so they were not must haves.

And that is a point in favor of the PS3? When you build up 1st party titles that are your "flagship" holiday titles and they don't meet critical or sales expecations that isn't a bonus. "Hey, we are selling well in spite of poor software!"

That is a very fan outlook at the situation. A more sobering one is: Where a title like Lair failed, a title like Bioshock succeeded.

And the market adjusts.

Have you forgotten about the real FF? Have you forgotten about Home? And what about socom and GOW3? Mgs4, gt5 anyone?

Have you forgotten about Bioware & Mass Effect Trilogy? Gears of War 2? Fable 2? Halo Wars? Banjo 3? It isn't like MS is ending software development after 2007. What Sony needs is stuff NOW. Warhawk was a nice title for owners and broadens the library and Uncharted, R&C, Haze, and UT3 have potential to grow the platform NOW. Next year is next year... and beyond.

And I think that is the contrast. Next gen is now. It isn't waiting for Sony anymore.
FF? More like Final Fantasy When. Eternal Sonata, Blue Dragon, Lost Odessey, Bioshock and Mass Effect are all here for the holiday season while FF is hardly in the news. Home? MS already has their online killer app with over 6M users and growing.

I can understand a fan's anticipation for future titles.

But lets not overlook the now. And right now those killer apps -- FF and Home -- aren't 2007. The 360 is getting its killer apps in 2007, and at a cheaper console price than the PS3.

And the Wii is getting Mario, Metroid, and a Smash game (with Zelda on the books along with Wii Play & Wii Sports) and is tearing through the market.

So while Sony fans are looking at the potential, the other platforms are realizing that potential.

As for HALO, most people who bought a 360 a year ago wanted Halo, so i don't see this as a major boost in hw sell. You people need to gather all the facts, calculate it and come back with smarter guesses.

My smart guess is we will see a significant bump in 360 sales in late September/October. And I am not in love with Halo, but it is what it is: The gaming event of 2007.

 

[fearsomepirate]

The fact we are even contemplatfing some sales relationship between MP3 sales to titles like Saint's Row and Dead Rising re-inforces the NPD numbers. The two 360 titles are above average titles, but definately not top 10 material whereas MP3 is the best Wii title to date.

At the time of release, Saints Row and Dead Rising were some of the best 360 had to offer. Console owners want games to play, and Xbox gamers are not particularly franchise-loyal. Remember also that a significant portion of the Wii fanbase is the sort uninterested in first-person shooters, no matter how good. 1x or 2x Platinum sales of Prime 3 would be pretty good, given the series' history.

If 1) an established Nintendo franchise with 2) a strong fanbase

Prime 2 sold only about 1.3m units worldwide. The Prime franchise might be somewhere near the Halo franchise in the minds of gamers, but it isn't in the marketplace. If Prime 3 breaks 2m, that'll be a significant improvement from the 2nd game.

 

[Acert93]

At the time of release, Saints Row and Dead Rising were some of the best 360 had to offer. Console owners want games to play, and Xbox gamers are not particularly franchise-loyal.

I guess we would have to qualify "some of the best the 360 had to offer". They were not more highly ranked, and were flawed, but 360 owners bought them. Like they do about everything else. A number of "above average" games according to critics have sold very well on the 360. The other consoles haven't realized (yet) this sort of software adoption, which is impacting "above average" games in a way you would expect "excellent" titles to react.

Anyhow, my point would be... if

MS A games = 5M sales
MS B games = Wii A games = 2M sales
MS C games = Wii B games = 1M sales
etc...

Publishers will take note. But I think MP3 will do fine.

Remember also that a significant portion of the Wii fanbase is the sort uninterested in first-person shooters, no matter how good. 1x or 2x Platinum sales of Prime 3 would be pretty good, given the series' history.

Prime 2 sold only about 1.3m units worldwide. The Prime franchise might be somewhere near the Halo franchise in the minds of gamers, but it isn't in the marketplace. If Prime 3 breaks 2m, that'll be a significant improvement from the 2nd game.

Prime 2 is inferior to Prime 1 and Prime 3.

Prime 1 sold 2.77M copies.

Prime 3 is the best thing on Wii, not just the best Prime or FPS.

Wii owners need great software.

It would be a shame if MP3 didn't break 2M. But if it doesn't it may be other factors slowing sales--namely Mario. I don't think we can draw too many conclusions from MP3 sales outside of general adoption trends. This fall will sharpen our picture significantly on the software front.

Notably where 3rd parties are concerned.

 

[liolio]

It would be a shame if MP3 didn't break 2M. But if it doesn't it may be other factors slowing sales--namely Mario. I don't think we can draw too many conclusions from MP3 sales outside of general adoption trends. This fall will sharpen our picture significantly on the software front.

Notably where 3rd parties are concerned.

I just want to add that if MP3 is not that successful it could also tell us quiet some stuff about Wii users base as MP3 is a "for real gamer" game (not a party or child game).

And of course editor will take notice too.
IMHO of course.

 

[Phil]

Joshua Luna,

Consumers are fickle. Nintendo saw their marketshare tank quickly. As did Sega. As did Atari.

I think the hardcore PS3 supporters already spoke up. They were the ones who bought a $600 console with a limited library. From here on out software and accessibility will play a significant role.

Nintendo, Sega, Atari - none of them had the marketshare (in console territory) that the PlayStation platform achieved. That's a big difference. Especially not to mention that it was Sony's platform that expanded the market beyond commonly refered hardcore gamers and made it mainstream. There are clear reasons as to why Nintendo lost it's dominant position to Sony back in 1994. What shift has their occured this generation? Better graphics? You tell me.

As for that you think that most hardcore PS3 supporters have already spoken up - guess that means I'm not one of them then. What am I? Just a loyal PlayStation supporter? A casual consumer?

True, I guess I can't consider myself being a hardcore since I didn't want to spend $600 on a console because I was still happy with the games for the PS2... But since I'm not hardcore... guess that means that I must be interested in Microsofts or Wii then...

Yep, far cheaper and a lot more game variety. Why by an average game at $60 when you have an entire library of AAA games on the PS2 for $20? A perfect cheap gift for a birthday or whatnot.

I didn't point out the PS2's success *after* the launch of Wii and Xbox360 to discuss why it's still selling - in fact, I think that point is nearly entirely irrelevant. I brought up recent PS2 sales as a reference that those people are playing a PlayStation console and PlayStation games. Chances are, somewhere down the line in the far future, they'll be looking to upgrade as well when current game consoles come down in price (probably at a similar price point that they have spent on the PS2). If they are happy with the PlayStation experience, chances are, they'll be interested in the PS3 if it seems attractive enough. That means that Sony will have to come down in price on time and/or drastically make the game library they're offering more attractive. This is obviously purely speculative as to what Sony's next steps are, but I think it's quite immature to write of Sony at this point, given their consoles are still being bought in high quantities.

Brand recognition is not to be underestimated and starts in its simplest form that if a customer is happy with a product, it's easier to keep him as a customer (...if they do things right). Imagine casual Joe who doesn't have much idea about consoles and just bought himself a cheap PS2 (simply because it's cheap and has lots of cheap games). He plays many games he likes, among a few that are well established and well known PlayStation franchises. Some point in the future, he wants a new console and sees that there is a PS3 with an identical controller that he has grown accustomed to and games that he remembers from the PS2. If the PS3 is within his price range, why would he buy a Wii or an xbox360? I can see reasons as to why he would get a Wii, but an Xbox360? Perhaps a lower price? So the question then becomes, is the price offset high enough to justify going for a different experience? Or will he go for what he knows best (a PlayStation) and games that he has liked? I guess that's the question no one can answer, but should point out that it's still quite early to draw definite conclusions at this point.

The PS3 will play 2nd fiddle to MS in NA and has lost Japan to Nintendo. This is really bad for Sony.

The Japanese developers appear to be quite in tune with DS and Wii development and philosophy. They are affordable (which allows high volume as well as risk taking) and reward ingenuity. Nintendo will own the lion's share of Japanese development efforts.

NA is a hugely lucrative market where big titles sell big numbers. Sony will never catch MS's install base in NA and MS's software sales are amazing. NA publishers will absolutely focus on MS in NA.

The PS2 was the lead SKU on about everything, had almost every important title and exclusive, had the widest and deepest software selection, and became very cheap over time. It dominated Japan, NA, and Europe.

The PS3 has none of this going for it.

It is a PlayStation in name only. Nothing more.

I think I already covered the PlayStation bit, so I'll leave that one out. You obviously disagree that brand recognition holds weight in the eye of especially casual consumers. We'll see.

As for playing 2nd fiddle to MS - guess I missed that part. How so? Are you basing this of EA game sales?
The way I see it, the PlayStation's biggest hitters have been predominantly from Japanese developers (apart from multi platform sport titles and GTA) - I bet, there's still a market waiting for many of those games to come out. And they will come out, eventuelly. I guess Microsoft now has quite a market in NA that is especially fond of the Halo games. That's good. Doesn't mean it kills the PlayStation 3 completely.

As for Japan and Wii. I've said it in other threads and will do again in this one: I just don't see Wii as a direct competitor. It opened a new market and it sure has a large draw from developers - that doesn't make the pre-existing market non-existant though. There are still many gamers that are waiting for the new and big games from Japan (i.e. Final Fantasy). The price at this point is still high on the PS3 and there hasn't been much reason to get one yet as the games aren't out yet, but given that they still are in development and coming, I think sales are bound to pick up eventually. It had a slow start - yes, Wii has been selling extraordinary, but I don't see why a Wii can't co-exist next to a PS3. They both offer different gaming experiences and none replaces the other. It's why we've had a handheld market and a console market co-existing - you have the folks that are interested in that kind of gameplay and you have the others.

I find the 360/PS3 debate more interesting, because clearly, they are more about taping into each others market.

Next point:

As asleto pointing out, every move Sony makes will be countered and check mated. A price drop? Sony hits $399, MS hits $299. Sony hits $299, MS hits $199. Sony gets a great new title, MS gets two.

It is the same boat MS was stuck in last time. The big differences, other than fans, is MS was at price parity and easier to develop for and had a solid, if not meager, NA install base (these points made porting worth the effort).

Aselto, no offence, didn't do much more than question every damn point without successfully pointing out anything. I could do the same and we'd have this discussion degrade in to the usual nonsense quick.

As for "Microsoft countering every single point and check mate". Yay! Sounds like I'm the next X360 customer then (given I already don't fall into the hardcore market apparently)... You truly believe it's that simple? You really think that consumer psychologie is down to simple pricing strategies?

Think again. And you were wrong about Microsoft being in that position too - if you can't remember, it was Microsoft hysterically droping the price, while the PS2 stayed fairly steady, selling more while being priced higher!

Also, Microsoft could be selling their console at half the price at this point and I for one would still not give a damn about their console. Why? Because Microsoft isn't offering what I see as worth purchasing. Yes, they have good games coming their way and if I had a X360, I'm sure I'd have a lot of fun with a few games I wouldn't mind picking up. Given my space is limited and I only buy one console a generation (at least one that's aiming for the same experience), I just happen to enjoy the PlayStation games better. I'm more interested in the Eastern games (Final Fantasy) while I care little for the Western games and the predominantly PC dev influenced games.

And since you're so fond on the price argument, guess there's left to point out that at least here in Europe, the difference isn't that striking once you start looking at the big picture: Once you add up online gaming, large HD for online content, perhaps the HD-DVD add on and the Xbox is already quite a bit more expensive than the package Sony is offering "out of the box". This may not be that clear at first glance for casual consumers, but I'm willing to bet on close inspection, this doesn't go unnoticed. Then again, the casual consumer might not care for online gaming and others yet...

Ouch! Haha! Then again I think Sony would be happy retaining 50% of their PS2 customers, so I guess those barbs go both ways.

Pinch of salt and all, but according to MS there are millions of Halo gamers still playing on Xbox1 consoles. I do think the, "Only Xbox gamers are buying 360s" card will die sooner than later. Some misconceptions die hard.

Well, at this point, neither of us really know. But we'll find out sooner or later. I do think it's easier to assume that Microsoft is selling predominantly to their pre-existing market currently. Comparing X360 with Xbox1 sales (relative to their launch date) and they are very striking similar. I do think they are widening their market, but not all that much. I don't think they are tapping too much into the PlayStation pond either - at least not yet. If Sony's high price remain and diversity doesn't come quick enough, they will though.

Anyway, my points weren't stated as facts - I was merely giving reasons as to why the picture can change and isn't doomed a failure at this point. You may think otherwise - you may also think Microsoft is dictating the battle - I however still see them as the underdog and as long as PS2 is still selling, I wouldn't be too worried about PS3's outcome. There are 100+ million PS2 consumers after all - a large segment of that market were Ps2 exclusive and probably haven't bought a next gen console yet. The big question is, will Sony have an attractive enough console at that point in time when they'll be looking at upgrading? We'll see.

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

The reason most people have this impression is because unlike Sony, Microsoft has a lot of big hitters this year, and it would be the ultimate act of stupidity to market 2008 and 2009 titles over 2007 releases.

You want as much hype as possible on your closest to release titles. Any talk about future titles takes away hype from current coming titles.

The only reason Sony is not currently hyping many 2007 releases, is because it doesn't have any many titles to hype. So you gotta show them stuff in the future.

Exactly, this was discussed in length during the E3 thread.

MS chose not to advertise their future lineups in order to place their current lineup in the best possible light.

Sony doesn't have a current lineup to brag about, so they can only focus on the future.

When Jan 2008 rolls around, there won't be any shortage of press for MS's titles not named Halo3, Bioshock, Madden, etc..

 

[Tap In]

... As for HALO, most people who bought a 360 a year ago wanted Halo, so i don't see this as a major boost in hw sell..

ridiculous!

I'll have to dig up the article but some financial analysts are predicting a 57% boost in HW sales month to month due to Halo3. I also spoke to a district Manager of Game Crazy this week and HW pre-orders are tagging along with many of those Halo3 Pre-orders. they also expect to sell a copy of Halo3 with nearly every machine for the next couple of years.


As for Sony, they are between a rock and a hard place and any one expecting anything more than 3rd place NA HW sales any time before 2011 is really fooling themselves. Edit: Unless Sony does a price "slash and burn" down to $199 before 360.

 

[liolio]

Phil, I've a lot of interest in your talk about the upgrade, ie when ps2 will go will really down we will see what happen.

And that's where we disagree, I think and I feel like I'm not lot alone, that people are already shifting toward the news systems, a little price drop, nice games have caused a nice bump in 360 sales.

People want something new now! We clearly see that through the sales of the wii.
As for the 360 and ps3 is somewhat different, the strengh of the playstation prevent a lot of gamers to switch to 360 and it's happening now, people are already waiting for an affordable ps3, and Sony has no affordable systems for this christmass and few games.

In Japan Ps2 sales have already go down, japenese chose the Wii, but I really think that ps3 will do better in Japan this christmass.

I don't disagree on yours arguments about brand loyalty/etc. I disagree fot the timing, I see a lot of clues that show that consumers want some new/affordable stuff now.

You think the ps2 still strong sales prove otherwise, I can't agree ps2 has a lot of stuffs for her, games library/price and piracy...

This christmass Nintendo will sell whatever it can produce, MS is likely to have better christmass/end of year sales than last year.
And after this periode it's tough to make up for lost sales till next christmass.

So far sony sell ~140.000 month, they will be really lucky to sell above the 200.000 (average)during september and october and reach 500.000 (average) during november december.

Nobody is denying the strengh of the playstation brand, we disagree on the state of the market, I feel market is more than ready for change. You think that it's non critical, and some of us disagree.

 

[Phil]

liolio,

fair points. Just to clarify: Sure, many gamers are looking for change now - I'm one of them. Then again, I made my "last gen purchase" nearly 7 years ago and have played everything that's there to play. I was specifically talking about the millions and hundreds of thousands of PS2's that Sony is still selling today. Are those consumers thinking of purchasing now, after they have just bought a PS2? Hardly... they're playing all the cheap games now! And as long as there are still people buying and playing a PS2, not all is lost for PS3 just yet (as per the reasons stated above in reply to Josh). That's the point.

Cheers Phil

 

[Scott_Arm]

I think some people are overestimating the strength of the MP3 brand. It's not like MP2 sold outstandingly well.