Can we please stop assuming that all mobile GPUs are ultra-specially-binned and hand-picked chips? That's nonsense.
For the high end, they are.
For low and mid-end parts,
Which the 7870M is not.
AMD probably even sells a lot more laptop chips than their desktop counterparts.
I would bet anything it's not true for the high end. You can count the people that offer the 7870M or higher on one hand: Clevo, Samsung, Asus, MSI and Alienware.
AMD or nVidia would never be able to meet the supply demands for their mobile parts if they were all "specially binned".
Which is why you don't bin the high volume parts.
The "mobile" chips are put into PCBs optimized for lower consumption, they're downclocked and undervolted as well as the memory chips.
There's no "special-sauce" going into mobile GPUs so please stop this urban myth about everything mobile being "specially binned" and impossible to use in a console.
Those points have nothing to do with how its binned. Those are just how the binned part is clocked and ran. Moreover, you shouldn't be looking at how its binned to see whether or not it would work in a console. You should look at
why it's binned. If only 10% of the parts meet the spec you need for that part, that's your bin. The point is that you can't expect to mass produce if your yield isn't going to be a majority of your good chips. Thus, you can't look at mobile high end parts to get a guesstimate for power consumption. Yes, the console part will be downclocked (and undervolted as performance allows), but that doesn't mean it fit that 10% you're reserving for mobile high end parts.
The Cape Verde occupies 123mm^2 at 28nm. Even if we only assume a reduction to 33% of its original size during a 28->14nm shrink, we're talking about a 41mm^2.
41mm^2 is a lot smaller than AMD's current lower end chip at 40nm - Caicos (59mm^2) - which has a TDP of 9W in its 800MHz form.
Which is still double what the GPU should be. Also, can you quote some 14nm leakage numbers? I guarantee you the power consumption won't scale linearly.
In Durango, we're looking at:
1 - 8-core Jaguar that in 2013 - 28nm - are already going into tablets in a 4-core version, probably even at the same 1.6GHz base clocks.
You're assuming it's a standard Jaguar core with no customizations. We don't know that yet.
2 - Main memory with a bandwidth that can be covered by a 4-channel LPDDR4 setup in 2017.
Do you know if LPDDR4 has the same latency as DDR3? Have you ever heard of a tablet with a 256 bit memory interface?
3 - A GPU+eDRAM combo that at 14nm could be as small as the current 40nm Caicos, which at 800MHz has a TDP of 9W.
Where did you start assuming you knew how big the eSRAM was? I missed that. And as I said, 9W is about twice what it should be for today's affordable tablets. Otherwise you're getting larger, more expensive (900+) and sacrificing battery life (especially with gaming!). Who wants to buy that?
4 - The SoC with CPU+GPU+eDRAM combined - which we're assuming it may hit as much as 300m^2 - should occupy less than 100mm^2 using 14nm.
Numbers as high as 450mm^2 have been floated. This potentially meshes with rumored production issues.
What ~100mm^2 SoCs do we know with ~1.6GHz CPU cores right now? Tegra 3 at 40nm, Exynos 4412 at 32nm?
Power profile of x86 and ARM cores are different. ARM cores are optimized for mobile environments.
If all of this can be made with a 25W total TDP in 14nm, why wouldn't it fit a tablet form factor, given that
we already have tablets in the market with that total TDP?
Why would you want it to?
Aegies said his info is from Feb 2012, but 8 core CPU and 1.2TF number came before. First who actually had it was the guy that posted it on pastebin. I think it was Dec 2011.
He also said it's still accurate as far as he knows.
There have been quite a few hints that this isn't a bog standard GCN architecture. Whether that means PowerVR Tile based GPU or something else ... remains to be seen.
If that is all BS, then I expect mediocre sales. Regardless of price.
$200 MSRP didn't help Dreamcast.
$200 MSRP didn't help GC.
Sub-par hardware is sub-par hardware. PS2 was able to get away with it by (marketing, past success with ps1, and great 3d party support as well as ...) having radically different hardware which was difficult to see exactly how it stacked up to the competition, but if the console architecture is as close as it seems, then the difference in performance will be readily apparent.
I'm confused. At first you seem to suggest that poor hardware will affect sales regardless of price, but then you go on to quote two great pieces of hardware that were killed by marketing, not a superior machine. The Dreamcast was quite powerful for when it was released (only 3 years after N64) and the gamecube was quite a bit more capable than the PS2. As you correctly pointed out, it's marketing and 3rd party support that killed both. Nintendo lacked the 2nd, as did Sega because of poor Saturn reception. Neither Microsoft nor Sony have that issue this generation.