NGGP: NextGen Garbage Pile (aka: No one reads the topics or stays on topic) *spawn*

[patsu]

They may play more than me these days. My wife and kid are on their iPad games (Clash of the Clans and a few small games) whenever they are awake. They leave the game running while they work/study. It's not so correct to call them non-gamers. They play different games.

 

[upnorthsox]

That's not who you were talking about, you're substituting to justify your definition.

 

[patsu]

...

The Wii, Kinect and iPad all brought in gamers that didn't play games before. From this perspective, you could call them non-gamers.

It's been a few years since these devices are on the market. I see these people playing games off-and-on, or all the time. The iPad is interesting because kids and strangers pick it up within seconds. The "What's that ?" European family I mentioned above were able to play Cut the Rope immediately. AngryBird took a minute or so (due to the drag-to-launch gesture). They figured out the rest.

They are the same type of people who didn't play games for various reasons (e.g., Don't know technologies, controller too big for kids, or just plain not interested). Kinect, Wii and iOS made gaming accessible to them. That's why GameStop mentioned that Kinect brought in new crowd, just like Wii. I see some of them play games more than me now. It would be inaccurate to call them non-gamers these days. The games they play are less involving, but the line is starting to blur.

And that's why I said Xbox has more casual gamers because of Kinect. I don't see them as the CoD crowd. Perhaps the EyeToy folks, but Sony didn't focus on them in a big way. They decided to tailor Move for the same gamers until WonderBook, which didn't perform well.

 

[Acert93]

Patsu, you are playing fast and quick with words. To go back to what was said:

Everyone thinks they know what core gamers are about. Forum warriors will care about the tech specs, forum warriors don't buy enough consoles to account for one months margin of error in sales figures.

They should account for most of the initial sales *if* the vendors target the core gaming market first.

To steal Alpha's term, forum warriors and core gamers aren't necessarily equal. Core gamers came out in droves for the 360 when forum warriors were signing the praises of Cell from here to high heaven.

Their numbers are similar worldwide. In fact, 360 probably has more casual gamers because of Kinect.

Not sure what Cell has to do with sales. ^_^

• Alpha's point: forum warriors like yourself are a small margin in the industry.
• Your argument: forum warriors should account for most of the initial sales if targeted.
• My counter argument: Forum Warrior is not code word/equivalent to Core gamer. Case in point was the forum warriors last generation and their unending praise of Cell and yet "core gamers" came out and produce very strong initial 360 sales.
• Your counter argument: The numbers are similar WW, and 360 has more casual gamers due to Kinect launched in 2010.

So, uh, yeah, I have no clue what Kinect sales 5 years into the platforms life has to do with core gamers and initial sales.

I get it. Some of you are totally committed to the Sony ecosystem. PS1, PS2, PS3, planned a PS4 purchase before the platform was launched. PNS+ subscriptions, a card carrying PSP/Vita member and so forth. Everything is taken through that prism.

We could do a lot of blah blah about the PS3 numbers being aided by Japan or MS's numbers being aided by an early launch, or how Sony lost BILLIONS and tarnished their strongest brand and lost market leadership with horrible design decisions that lost KK his job or how Sony was spared a blowout by the RRoD which has changed MS's approach to the market, etc. and how this impacts the WW numbers.

But no, the real point is pretty simple and you are totally evading it:

Core Gamers =! Forum Warriors

Last generation was a pretty good testament to that fact. Much of the press and many forum posts were unquestionably praising the PS3's hardware. And yet core gamers (which really skewed strongly toward the 360 when you take out Asia) came out VERY strong for the 360 in the early years.

You could argue many things influenced such--price, availability, crappy PS3 software, half baked services and features, etc.

But what cannot be discounted was the platform marketed as much, much more powerful did not necessarily catch fire with core gamers in proportionate sales. Sony is going to have to rely on more than paper specifications to win over core gamers. In fact we have a long history of "faster" consoles NOT winning the market because, bluntly, pure power is not the most important metric for selling a console. Yes, even to core gamers. I actually think it is a completely foolish assumption that "core gamers" rate their platform on chips and not software.

And the proof I am right and you are wrong is that core gamers have frequently developed purchasing habits contrary to the "forum warriors."

Luckily for Sony it seems MS is bent on offending core gamers and forum soldiers alike. Offending core gamers with the perception of chasing casuals, inflated prices, killing used games, pay for basic features, and forcing Kinect on gamers when it is incompatible with core games (shooters, racing, sports, action games, etc) will have more to do with how core gamers respond to MS's Xbox than Sony having some extra pixels on screen. In fact if MS wasn't so hell bent on catering the Xbox to polling data and market studies and were coming in with a similar, but slightly slower, kit but a good $150 cheaper I think Sony would be in a world of hurt with core gamers. But not forum warriors, so go figure.

 

[Arwin]

Isn't it just that there was more cool stuff to wonder about with Cell, but that being out first and having Live's better online community was what drew Core gamers, forumites or no? Beyond3D isn't your typical forum. I bet Xbox Live got ore airtime on Neogaf than the Cell processor, and Neogaf is considered the real core community by most of the industry.

 

[wco81]

There were millions playing simple games on sites like Yahoo Games and Pogo. These were as much about socializing as much as gaming.

Now Facebook and mobile devices may have drawn these casuals.

Wii may have had some success attracting these gamers.

But I don't think consoles could win these kind of gamers away from their mobile devices. Will people play Scrabble or Letterpress on consoles? Or the Angry Birds type of games? Maybe some but it's much easier to reach for your phone or iPad than turn on the TV and console.

Maybe these people will really want to dance or play fake bowling type of games, some will go for consoles with motion controls.

Which is more likely a fad that is over, mobile gaming or motion controls on consoles?

 

[patsu]

• Alpha's point: forum warriors like yourself are a small margin in the industry.
• Your argument: forum warriors should account for most of the initial sales if targeted.
• My counter argument: Forum Warrior is not code word/equivalent to Core gamer. Case in point was the forum warriors last generation and their unending praise of Cell and yet "core gamers" came out and produce very strong initial 360 sales.
• Your counter argument: The numbers are similar WW, and 360 has more casual gamers due to Kinect launched in 2010.

I think you simply misunderstood me. I mentioned core gamers should form the bulk of the initial sales if the vendors target them. That's it !

Forum warriors, Cell or Xenos references may simply be part of the gamer dynamics. I didn't bring 'em up in reference to sales. ^_^ May not make a big difference in the grand scheme of things.

 

[patsu]

There were millions playing simple games on sites like Yahoo Games and Pogo. These were as much about socializing as much as gaming.

Now Facebook and mobile devices may have drawn these casuals.

Wii may have had some success attracting these gamers.

But I don't think consoles could win these kind of gamers away from their mobile devices. Will people play Scrabble or Letterpress on consoles? Or the Angry Birds type of games? Maybe some but it's much easier to reach for your phone or iPad than turn on the TV and console.

Maybe these people will really want to dance or play fake bowling type of games, some will go for consoles with motion controls.

Which is more likely a fad that is over, mobile gaming or motion controls on consoles?

Do they need to win mobile gamers over ? Is it a straight zero sum game ?

upnorthox's post is interesting to me because it pointed out my blind spot.
For practical purposes, are there really a significant number of non-gamers left ? I think over the years, I am implicitly assuming that everyone is a casual gamer now. But this may not mean they will forever stick to just one form of gaming.

Sony investing in PS Mobile and Gaikai is an attempt to virtualize game console so that they can target folks (technically) on all platforms. In their world view, the more enthusiastic gamers will still want a more focused experience even in this "everyone games on other/all devices" world.

Motion gaming is in its infancy. Perhaps in the future, they will evolve into outdoor gaming. I hesitate to call it fad in the long run.

 

[wco81]

Outdoor gaming? You mean use mobile devices outside the home?

I think most people would rather sit on a couch and while they may have cleared out space in front of the TV for those Wii parties so people have room to stand and play, are they always going to do that when they game?

 

[Arwin]

Johan Sebastian Joust is a good example of something that could work 'outdoor'.

 

[Lucid_Dreamer]

They'll look at the games.

And if the games are close they might well stick to the platform or set of features they prefer. Live vs. PSN or whatever other things they offer at launch.

They look at games and features, TOO. You are forgetting a very powerful factor. Buyer's remorse. People don't generally like to get something 50% weaker than the competition, if they can help it. It's not like the cost will be twice as much or anything like that. This is a long term investment.

Of course, being emotional involved with the weaker product would change that thinking. It also causes Internet meltdowns and such.

exactly

MS will stick to their design and feature sets and laugh all the way to the bank for years to come I'd wager, by giving a growing market what they want and still meeting most HC gamer's needs.

Well, they better have a good deal of features. Since Sony has mentioned where they are going with their console; if less, MS might start to look like a console of compromise. Game resolution, framerates, and scale will be under the microscope of the industry. Any compromises will be outed for the world to see (i.e. all the games from Sony's event). That is the current bar.

I do look forward to the rumored event in April and the E3 event. Let's see if they would keep me from feeling buyer's remorse, if I decided to purchase the next Xbox over the PS4.

 

[Lucid_Dreamer]

My definition of casual gamers is probably different from yours. My casual gamer friends don't play shooters or controller-based games at all. They will play motion games. Some don't know how to "turn on" Kinect. They ask their children to turn it on and setup the games for them. I consider light and accessible puzzle games like touch-based Sudoku casual games too.

I have met Europeans who don't know what an iPad was 2 years ago. When I pulled it out to use, they asked " What's that ?". I like their lifestyle better. It takes time for things to spread in real life.

You just called my wife out on that one.

 

[patsu]

Outdoor gaming? You mean use mobile devices outside the home?

I think most people would rather sit on a couch and while they may have cleared out space in front of the TV for those Wii parties so people have room to stand and play, are they always going to do that when they game?

It depends. With Vita, I prefer to lie down (in bed) and play. With PS3/4, couch or the floor.

For work-outs, sports, dancing, singing, performance type of games, the ultimate fun may remain in the courts, fields and stages -- if they found good motion technologies to apply there.

In a very real sense, Golf seems like a technology driven sports for a lot of my friends. I tried Move Golf, while it's more realistic than Wii, the controller still feels like a toy. If they allow me to play with my own clubs in the backyard, it will be more relevant and immersive.

For nextgen, it is possible that MS target a broader consumer base (like Wii this gen). Should they succeed, they will have a bigger base of users to sell to. For now, it looks like Sony remains committed/restricted to the same core gamer base... unless they reveal more later.

 

[upnorthsox]

Outdoor = Mobile AR

 

[AlphaWolf]

They look at games and features, TOO. You are forgetting a very powerful factor. Buyer's remorse. People don't generally like to get something 50% weaker than the competition, if they can help it. It's not like the cost will be twice as much or anything like that. This is a long term investment.

Of course, being emotional involved with the weaker product would change that thinking. It also causes Internet meltdowns and such.


Well, they better have a good deal of features. Since Sony has mentioned where they are going with their console; if less, MS might start to look like a console of compromise. Game resolution, framerates, and scale will be under the microscope of the industry. Any compromises will be outed for the world to see (i.e. all the games from Sony's event). That is the current bar.

I do look forward to the rumored event in April and the E3 event. Let's see if they would keep me from feeling buyer's remorse, if I decided to purchase the next Xbox over the PS4.

You keep trying to push your forum warrior mind set as comparable to the public at large. What makes a console weaker in the eyes of most probably has nothing to to with the number of teraflops. The same goes for buyer remorse, power isn't everything, it just needs to deliver the features and games wanted at a reasonable price and look good enough. If performance was everything DVD wouldn't be outselling blu-ray three to one and everyone would be gaming on a PC.

 

[wco81]

If you go outside the home with your golf clubs, you might as well go play the real thing.

If you can mocap your golf swing for analysis, that might be better than any video game.

Biometric sensors are becoming popular. For wannabe jocks, you can buy $300 basketball shoes with sensors and other Nike Fuel Band stuff. Guess they could use that data to make some animations or a "game" out of it.


I don't know, recreational sports compete against video games, not supplement them.

 

[bkilian]

They look at games and features, TOO. You are forgetting a very powerful factor. Buyer's remorse. People don't generally like to get something 50% weaker than the competition, if they can help it. It's not like the cost will be twice as much or anything like that. This is a long term investment.

a) it's not 50% weaker.
b) There are phones much more powerful than the iPhone. Do iPhone buyers suffer buyer's remorse? If not, why not?
Do people who buy a $500 laptop instead of a $1000 laptop feel buyers remorse, even though their laptop is much less powerful than the other one? If not, why not?

A lot of things go into the concept of why people buy a product. Relative power is rarely the only reason.

 

[patsu]

If you go outside the home with your golf clubs, you might as well go play the real thing.

Not necessarily. ;-)
Weather, schedule, sick, friends not around, computer assistance, or just pure convenience.

If you can mocap your golf swing for analysis, that might be better than any video game.

Biometric sensors are becoming popular. For wannabe jocks, you can buy $300 basketball shoes with sensors and other Nike Fuel Band stuff. Guess they could use that data to make some animations or a "game" out of it.


I don't know, recreational sports compete against video games, not supplement them.

Not if they can be done by the same box. It would be yet another genre or gaming device.

 

[(((interference)))]

We will see
If this comment from lherre is true then durango would still be a beast. The Graphic Card in the alpha kit was 2tf or so right?

Nope, bkilian shot that rumour down himself - and at the time I was one of the biggest proponents of the 2TF+ GPU.
It was 1.2 as well, bgassassin was the first to post it was 1+TF in the alpha kits.
And as iherre said, the specs hadn't changed for the beta kits and won't change for final (unless MS make last minute changes like Sony did with the RAM).

Oh, but you were so confident in the past concerning Durango performance. At least you stopped pestering me about cheesecake

Yeah, Proelite was going on about how the final GPU would be as powerful as a HD7970/GTX680...

 

[(((interference)))]

Viva Piñata is a casual game and Banjo-Kazooie: Nuts & Bolts is such a separate game from the previous two that its an insult to group them together.

You really didn't disprove my point though. Sony had far more exclusives, particularly from Japanese developers.

With both the 720 and PS4 being so similar, 3rd party games will likely be on both platforms, which leaves 1st party games, systems services, and the ecosystem as a whole as major differentiators. Sony wins the first (far more 1st party dev studios), has a strong showing with the second (social sharing of gameplay), and really only needs to flesh out interactions with the PSVita, smartphones and tablets to have a truly compelling offering. Microsoft has to do the same, but the onus is on them.

Yeah, I loved Nuts & Bolts, one of my fav games this gen - I thought it was very fresh and yet retro at the same time. Pity MS have turned Rare into the Kinect Sports studio.

But yes, MS should be slightly worried as not only is their console weaker but their internal studios are less numerous, less diverse and seem less technically than Sony's bevy of AAA+ devs.

There was a clear visual gap between most PS3 1st party titles and their MS counterparts and that's only going to be accentuated now the PS4 actually has performance advantages in a few key areas.

Really the only MS exclusives I care about are Halo, Forza and maybe Gears (but that's suffering from sequilitis).
Halo seems to be suffering from the transition to 343 and MS intent on making it a CoD like cashcow and Forza has GT as its somewhat less accessible equivalent.

This gen, besides a few PS3 exclusives most of my games were bought for 360 due to cross platform superiority and the better controller:
http://forum.beyond3d.com/showpost.php?p=1691661&postcount=15

However, I will definitely jump back to the Sony camp if this crossplat advantage tilts in Sony's favour, since they'll likely have the best exclusives as well (unless MS starts throwing out cash buying exclusivity for the likes of GTA6 etc) and also won't have non-features like no offline and no used games.