Next Xbox already in planning

[Graham]

Ok. Here are some of my guesses as to what I'd expect (hope?) to see in an Xbox Full Circle:

I'd say 2012 release. The 360 I feel has at least 2 years more life in it than the original black box.
Requires a broadband connection.
Emphasis on managed code. Something like Cω (C# with multithreaded extensions). C#4/VB10 should be out by then.
Not going to even try and guess on the CPU(s). I'd imagine it will diverge even more for the xbox's PC roots. A chip designed for managed code from the get-go would be very interesting.
Graphics wise? Well I'd expect a superset of the D3D of the time, say Direct3D 10.2. Ideally of course MS will try and keep the PC/consoles as similar as possible in this area.
Ultra fast ram + large flash memory + huge hotswappable hard drive (500gb?). Primary game assets streamed from the hdd into flash as it plays, streaming into main ram. All digitally distributed of course. HDD comes prepacked with games, and streams in new games prerelease ala steam. Tempts you with free trials of the full game. Games still can be bought on high density disk. Disks have a UID on them, gets tied to your system and copied to the hdd as you play it. Unregister it to sell it, but this costs a small amount.

Of course no doubt I'm very wrong. But it's fun to speculate.

 

[TheChefO]

If the Wii outsells both the PS3 and the Xbox 360, are you still going to ignore it?

Not at all - I'm not ignoring it now. I just don't get the feeling that they are targeting the same demographic that is interested in 360/ps3. In other words, if one were a casual/budget gamer and interested in buying only one console this gen (as they probably did last gen), they will most likely buy the system that has their few games that they like. This may be Zelda/Mario or it may be Halo/Fable or it may be MGS/FF. It may also be Madden/GTA. The first three are obvious. The last option seems to lean heavily toward 360 this gen(for price reasons).

The demographic for Wii is either Nintendo gamer, young gamer or nongamer.

The demographic for ps3/360 is hardcore/casual gamer 18-30.

Not saying that Nintendo will not have great success this gen, just that I don't think they are focused on the same demographic.

 

[TheChefO]

Lol they are all targetting the same exact market!! They are just doing it in different ways. At the end of the day they willl all talk about how they have expanded the market how they have got a new demographic buying their machines.

No, they aren't. They all want to have a diverse offering but they all have a target demographic and in this gen (more so than last gen IMO) Sony and MS share the same target while Nintendo is going for nongamer/Nintendo fan/young gamer.

I dont think the PS3 price will stay that high for as long as your implying, well i guess that depends on what components are causing the high price, but if it is cell is used in other commercial devices and blu ray picks up then wouldn't that high price tag tumble soon enough?? Sony's biggest problem would be getting the price down as quickly while not allowing the price reduction to devalue their product

How about $100 per year - aggressive enough for you? That would put ps3 at $200 the same year MS launches xbox720 (2010).

It depends on the console and the support the companies give to it afterwards. Abondoning xbox did shorten its life cycle, but at the same time i wouldn't say psx had its lifecycle shortened by the release of the PS2.

But my point i think was that i dont think it would be too crazy for there to be people only just getting tired of their PS2s in 2 or 3 years and starting to finally think about a next gen machine and at the same time there will still be people considering buying their first PS2s.

You're right, I didn't account for every single person out there. Guess what, there's people out there who are just now picking up their first Sega Genesis in pawn shops this year to. I'm trying to keep this focused on the majority as it is impossible to account for every persons activities in the world.

True. But the market was in decline anyway wasn't it? and the 360 isn't really picking up the slack is it?? Not that am saying your point is wrong, as its not, its just at this moment in time the decline appears more coincedental, as opposed to the next generation being the cause.

ps2 sold 20 million consoles in 2003, and 20 million in 2005. I think i'ts safe to say next-gen is having an impact on sales not a "general decline of the market".

I guess what i really meant to say is i hope MS is smarter than people in here think they are. Trying to bleed sony dry is a waste of time and resources and they really dont help themselves, even if they succeed they only create a gap in the market for other competitors to fill, by that i mean sony's failure by no means guarantees MS success

Again, it has nothing to do with bleeding. It has to do with timing the market. It has to do with developer support. It also has to do with limiting potential profit from a smaller ps3 userbase and maximizing xb userbase growth through smart design which allows aggressive pricing and smart games support.

 

[pc999]

The demographic for Wii is either Nintendo gamer, young gamer or nongamer.

Here does RS, RE:UC, Madden Wii, Sadness, CoD/MoH and the like fits in there they arent for Nintendo gamers, for kids and not for no gamers (at least not as cleary as WiiSports). They are targeting everyone (actually a superset of MS/S) but (or because of that) they arent especific enought so you can see a clear path.

There is two main things (along with other not as important) that will influence the next next gen: the design of the Wii and the price of PS3. We also know that they learn with the past (HW/price costs....) and that they are already looking at new interfaces (at least as a option) a result of that is the camera (+ the games) and the other thread here you see that they are trying new things (like voice recg). So it is certain that this things will matter a lot in next gen.


BTW remember that for most people the last gen die much latter than for us.

 

[TheChefO]

BTW remember that for most people the last gen die much latter than for us.

True but it does start to die as soon as the next gen starts. Ps2 has had the slowest 9 month period (from January to September) ever this year. I'd say coming off selling 20 million consoles in 2005 to their slowest period ever in 2006 supports the concept that when next gen starts, the previous gen starts to die.

 

[GB123]

Sony couldn't rush to the maket as it was always held back by Blu-Ray and still is to some extent.

So where as MS forced a next gen on us, Sony is forcing a next gen storage media on us.

Hey ho ..

 

[pc999]

True but it does start to die as soon as the next gen starts. Ps2 has had the slowest 9 month period (from January to September) ever this year. I'd say coming off selling 20 million consoles in 2005 to their slowest period ever in 2006 supports the concept that when next gen starts, the previous gen starts to die.

Both in HW and SW , because if it just the former it may be more saturation of the market than a end of a gen, also anouther cruncial factor is how fast is are the sales declining (specially the SW sales).

 

[iNoV]

No, they aren't. They all want to have a diverse offering but they all have a target demographic and in this gen (more so than last gen IMO) Sony and MS share the same target while Nintendo is going for nongamer/Nintendo fan/young gamer.

I think pc999 addressed this point pretty well. Nintendo are after every demographic.

How about $100 per year - aggressive enough for you? That would put ps3 at $200 the same year MS launches xbox720 (2010).

Thats not nearly aggressive enough given the common knowledge of the "sweet spot" regarding price, they stand a the huge risk of pricing themselves out of the game for most of the generation if they are only knocking of 100 per year

You're right, I didn't account for every single person out there. Guess what, there's people out there who are just now picking up their first Sega Genesis in pawn shops this year to. I'm trying to keep this focused on the majority as it is impossible to account for every persons activities in the world.

I wasnt asking you to account for every individual gamer. But you seem to assume that hardcore gamers are the majority when they are merely the loudest minority. I guess i didnt use the best example but a casual gamer isn't going to suddenly find the PS2 obselete because the Xbox360 launched or the PS3 launched. If anything they may find more value in purchasing an older machine as the games will be a lot cheaper. I guess my example has gone off track again but i was saying the majority wont be buying a new console in its first year of release, meaning the trends you outline wont happen as rapidly as you imply.

ps2 sold 20 million consoles in 2003, and 20 million in 2005. I think i'ts safe to say next-gen is having an impact on sales not a "general decline of the market".

So there's no decline in the market?? Is the xbox360 making up for the reduced PS2 sales???

Again, it has nothing to do with bleeding. It has to do with timing the market. It has to do with developer support. It also has to do with limiting potential profit from a smaller ps3 userbase and maximizing xb userbase growth through smart design which allows aggressive pricing and smart games support.

What is aggressive pricing and smart games support? How does microsoft go about limiting potential profit from a smaller PS3 userbase?

 

[TheChefO]

Both in HW and SW , because if it just the former it may be more saturation of the market than a end of a gen, also anouther cruncial factor is how fast is are the sales declining (specially the SW sales).

Software seems to be softening as well.

September sales this year are 342million (without xbox360's 102million) vs 347million in 2005 and 458million in 2004.

This is only a one month snapshot though.

 

[AzBat]

Here's my contribution: Console Name = Xbox Live and thus signals the direction of the whole experience.

The service is the main product. The console is just the means. Just like cell phones, satelite systems, etc. Wouldn't be surprised if they offered the hardware for free(provided you sign a year contract). All games would be purchased via the service. Thus no longer a need for a DVD drive. May provide it as an option for those still caught in the 90s. Would be cool if they offered a satellite option for hi-speed download of games, music, movies and other content. Though it should still require cable or DSL connection for multiplayer gaming and uploads. Maybe it will be what Phantom should have been? LOL

Tommy McClain

 

[Megadrive1988]

Ok. Here are some of my guesses as to what I'd expect (hope?) to see in an Xbox Full Circle:

I'd say 2012 release. The 360 I feel has at least 2 years more life in it than the original black box.
Requires a broadband connection.
Emphasis on managed code. Something like Cω (C# with multithreaded extensions). C#4/VB10 should be out by then.
Not going to even try and guess on the CPU(s). I'd imagine it will diverge even more for the xbox's PC roots. A chip designed for managed code from the get-go would be very interesting.
Graphics wise? Well I'd expect a superset of the D3D of the time, say Direct3D 10.2. Ideally of course MS will try and keep the PC/consoles as similar as possible in this area.
Ultra fast ram + large flash memory + huge hotswappable hard drive (500gb?). Primary game assets streamed from the hdd into flash as it plays, streaming into main ram. All digitally distributed of course. HDD comes prepacked with games, and streams in new games prerelease ala steam. Tempts you with free trials of the full game. Games still can be bought on high density disk. Disks have a UID on them, gets tied to your system and copied to the hdd as you play it. Unregister it to sell it, but this costs a small amount.

Of course no doubt I'm very wrong. But it's fun to speculate.

I expect Direct3D 11 or a superset of it. all versions of Direct3D 10 will be ancient by 2012. only way I see the next Xbox using a superset of DirectX10 is if it launches in 2009 which is doubtful.

 

[INKster]

I expect Direct3D 11 or a superset of it. all versions of Direct3D 10 will be ancient by 2012. only way I see the next Xbox using a superset of DirectX10 is if it launches in 2009 which is doubtful.

Why is it a four year life doubtful ?

Xbox -> 2001
Xbox 360 -> 2005
Xbox 720 D) -> 2009

Makes sense to me.

 

[22psi]

If MS was smart, they'd release 720 when:

1. DX11 is finalized, 720 to fully DX11 compliant plus additional 720 features
2. Xboy is also released, fully compatible
3. Live Anywhere is fully mature
4. fully compatible with Zune
5. when HD DVD vs Blu Ray has been decided

I am hoping for 2011

 

[AlNom]

Why is it a four year life doubtful ?

Xbox -> 2001
Xbox 360 -> 2005
Xbox 720 D) -> 2009

Makes sense to me.

The likely reasons for the 2005 launch had to do with losing a lot of money on the Xbox hardware (and also beating Sony to next-gen market according to their ad campaign ). This time, the hardware was designed to be more conducive to cost reductions ala the PS & PS2.

Although, keep in mind that by launching in 2009, the PS3 will only be out for three years. If next-next-gen hardware were that important, they'd have to get some pretty mighty hardware as Sony probably isn't planning on such a short cycle; the PS4 could potentially have ridiculous specs compared to the next Xbox if Sony plan on a 2012 release. However, it's not unreasonable to assume that PS4 will be a superset of PS3 hardware in almost all aspects such as a higher clock, more memory, similar memory config (GDDR4/5 perhaps), nVidia GPU...so, it probably wouldn't be too much of a stretch on R&D to come up with something for 2009; a shorter cycle ultimately defeats the purpose of cost-savings through chip size reductions. So I guess it'd look more like the PC model of upgrading.

Personally, I think the shorter cycle sucks for development.

 

[pipo]

Why is it a four year life doubtful ?

Xbox -> 2001
Xbox 360 -> 2005
Xbox 720 D) -> 2009

Makes sense to me.

They didn't want to launch after the PS3. 2005 for the 360 was planned from the start.

Sony won't be launching a PS4 before 2010. I wouldn't be surprised to see it appear in 2012, so MS has plenty of time this time around.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

Brand loyalty, trust, past experience, popularity, peer pressure, misguided beliefs.

Why do people buy more Toyota Camrys than Honda Accords when they are both basically equal and the Accord is slightly cheaper?

You're not listening to what I'm saying. You're describing a situation of inequality. I'm talking about the day when all of those things you mentioned are as much in MS's favor as Sony's. That's when MS will go for the gold.

 

[ERP]

They didn't want to launch after the PS3. 2005 for the 360 was planned from the start.

Sony won't be launching a PS4 before 2010. I wouldn't be surprised to see it appear in 2012, so MS has plenty of time this time around.

If you look at the original PS3 launch timetable, circa PS2 release, you'll find that all MS did was shift to Sony's timetable, so they wouldn't be late to the party. Sony Just missed there original timetable, otherwise MS would have been in the same release timeframe as PS3.

 

[nelg]

Why is it a four year life doubtful ?

Xbox -> 2001
Xbox 360 -> 2005
Xbox 720 D) -> 2009

Makes sense to me.

If true it could mean that the XBOX360 would be the winner of this generation. Assuming, of course, that you feel that one generation ends as soon as the next one begins.

 

[nonamer]

If true it could mean that the XBOX360 would be the winner of this generation. Assuming, of course, that you feel that one generation ends as soon as the next one begins.

If they release their next console that soon they're certain to have done poorly. Why would they release their next one so soon if their current one is doing well?

 

[archangelmorph]

Ok. Here are some of my guesses as to what I'd expect (hope?) to see in an Xbox Full Circle:

I'd say 2012 release. The 360 I feel has at least 2 years more life in it than the original black box.
Requires a broadband connection.
Emphasis on managed code. Something like Cω (C# with multithreaded extensions). C#4/VB10 should be out by then.
Not going to even try and guess on the CPU(s). I'd imagine it will diverge even more for the xbox's PC roots. A chip designed for managed code from the get-go would be very interesting.
Graphics wise? Well I'd expect a superset of the D3D of the time, say Direct3D 10.2. Ideally of course MS will try and keep the PC/consoles as similar as possible in this area.
Ultra fast ram + large flash memory + huge hotswappable hard drive (500gb?). Primary game assets streamed from the hdd into flash as it plays, streaming into main ram. All digitally distributed of course. HDD comes prepacked with games, and streams in new games prerelease ala steam. Tempts you with free trials of the full game. Games still can be bought on high density disk. Disks have a UID on them, gets tied to your system and copied to the hdd as you play it. Unregister it to sell it, but this costs a small amount.

Of course no doubt I'm very wrong. But it's fun to speculate.

If there's one thing I'd expect for the next generation of games consoles its that C/C++ will definitely NOT be dropped in favour of any other language unless it can retain the speed & low compile overheads and the expressive power (in areas of programming useful for games developers).

Even then I doubt any developer would be happy about porting the company's entire libraries of code into the new language in order to maintain re-use and it would completely rule out any possibility of console BC.

Also I hardly see why adopting a new language would be beneficial to anyone? especially one that tries to move away from unmanaged code in an environment where the embedded nature of consoles means that the developers will be looking to maintain more control over whats going on under the hood (not less) in order to get more and more juice out of it..

In all honestly I expect games console tech will be moving off into the realm of highly specialised architectures for a horrendous degree of parallel processing (something similar to supercomputers of today) even in MS's own console hw whereas I think the PC market will be moving more in the direction of highly integrated GPU/CPU hybrid solutions and miniaturisation (with regards to form factor.. especially since the average PC is already capable of doing waaaaaaay more than what the average PC user will ever need it to do, hw-wise)..

Hopefully time will tell..