Next Xbox already in planning
- Thread starter Angelcurio
- Start date
I wouldn't expect any huge success, or anything more than mild interest for that matter.
What is the average gamer going to do with Linux on a console? Sure, a tiny handful of techno-geeks will love it, but for the vast majority of normal, every day people who buy game consoles, what are they going to do with it?
Johnny Awesome
Veteran
2010 is a very safe bet for next Xbox IMO. Possibly Spring 2011 instead. This will allow them to get the jump on Sony, especially in software development and success for MS would cut the PS3's life short and really hurt Sony's bottom line. One of the pillars of MS strategy will be to force Sony's PS division into a loss position. Shortening the life-cycle to 5 years instead of 6 will help achieve that.
MS would rather lose $1b per year to make Sony lose $1b per year, than make $1b per year and allow Sony to make $1b. In fact, MS would probably rather lose $2b per year to make Sony lose $1b per year, than allow Sony to make money. They just don't have the mindshare to force that kind of confrontation yet.
MS would rather lose $1b per year to make Sony lose $1b per year, than make $1b per year and allow Sony to make $1b. In fact, MS would probably rather lose $2b per year to make Sony lose $1b per year, than allow Sony to make money. They just don't have the mindshare to force that kind of confrontation yet.
You are absolutely wrong.
Ok, I couldn't do it I agree, I thought from day 1 (E3 2005) that Sony had no real intentions of a Spring launch. I think all the rumbling from MS 6 months out gave Sony a lot of lead time though and MS's financial made it clear MS wouldn't wait. Sony could spot 12 months -- especially if they gave peeps the impression of 3-4 months to clam the nerves -- and then come in for the kill. Even then, I think Sony knew the first year would be tough on MS not only due to hardware but due to the transition of gens. The PS2 had it tough at first, and it had overwhelming dev support. MS was doing it alone basically. I also think that 2007 is the first big REAL year of next gen, and 2008 is the swing year where we can predict the winner.
In agreement with El L, I think MS will aim for 2011. From MS's view the worse that could happen is Sony go to a 5 year cycle and co-launch. Unless Sony makes it clear they are going for 2011 really early I don't think MS will be aiming for 2010. They have dev support they never had before and have a chance to make some money at the end. Personally I think 6 years is too long, but that is just me...
I'm not sure that'll actually work though. If Cell was designed with an eye on scalability into next-gen, PS4 could be architecturally very similar to PS3, allow dead-easy transitioning for developers (even game scaling perhaps down to PS3), and be produced from chips that have been development for a year+ assuming Cell is progressed for other markets during PS3's life. Thus at any point MS want to release another XBox, Sony could potentially grab the best Cell and nVidia options (nVidia are still working with Sony now, and I envisage a long cooperation setting up for PS4) and throw them into a case. There won't be any new drives to worry about (200 GB BRDs will be fine!) or other tricky technologies, so they should be able to rapidly design and release a rival that isn't a pig to develop for.
I also find it odd that a number of people ignore the points often raised by MS that they're wanting a profit this time around. The idea of them losing a billion on this project, and cutting the lifecycle short producing that, doesn't make sense to me. Cutting XB short made sense as it was a bottomless pit draining cash. If XB360 is turning a profit, there's no incentive (other than this mythical 'let's annoy Sony as if they're the only company in the world we have to worry about' incentive) to give up on it and start another costly venture with expectations to lose yet more money.
Johnny Awesome
Veteran
Of course they WANT a profit, but they'd sacrifice one to hurt Sony's financials. They're more interested in forcing Sony out of the market than they are in making a profit. They just don't have the mindshare to start that type of battle yet. That's the key thing they learned last time: That they could buy marketshare at great cost, but not enough to beat Sony until they are closer in mindshare.
Do you actually think anyone at MS believes that is realisticially possible?
Sure they want to outsell Sony, but seriously here, force Sony out of the market completely? Come on!
Agreed.
Oddly, I wouldn't be surprised if MS and Sony's competition towards each other is much more jovial than is generally believed. They, of course, want to outsell each other... but I have my doubts about one wanting the destruction of the other at any cost.
It seems that most people(even Xbox owners) didn't really mind that MS dropped the Xbox like a fly, but obviously they can't repeat the same thing with the 360. Also Sony is making some big money with the PS2 right now + they get a reliable reputation in the process. MS should learn from that. I would say about 5 more years before we see the X720.
RancidLunchmeat
Veteran
I agree with Bobbler that if MS wanted to sacrifice billons, buying developers would be a much more logical method than continuing to launch consoles every 4 years.
However, I think the marketing opportunity at 2010, coupled with the facts that 1) Five years isn't an insufferably short period of time and 2) if the 360 is profitable, they won't drop support for it like they did with the Xbox, is far too good to pass up.
The mindset and the advertising and marketing opportunities of "OMFG ITS 2010!!!11" is going to make that a very attractive window for companies to try and get out new products. Whether it's new gaming consoles or re-designed Acuras, 2010 is one of those years that will be marketed the hell out of.
However, I think the marketing opportunity at 2010, coupled with the facts that 1) Five years isn't an insufferably short period of time and 2) if the 360 is profitable, they won't drop support for it like they did with the Xbox, is far too good to pass up.
The mindset and the advertising and marketing opportunities of "OMFG ITS 2010!!!11" is going to make that a very attractive window for companies to try and get out new products. Whether it's new gaming consoles or re-designed Acuras, 2010 is one of those years that will be marketed the hell out of.
Well, we can't know what MS' goals are. But buying game developpers is probably as expensive as a 4 year hardware life cycle.
Btw, does anyone how much Sony and Ms invested in their newest hardware R&D ? It must be pretty difficult to asses, as both Br and Cell were cofinanced and are to be used in various products...
Still, I'd tend to believe that the 360 was not as expensive to develop as the Ps3.
Btw, does anyone how much Sony and Ms invested in their newest hardware R&D ? It must be pretty difficult to asses, as both Br and Cell were cofinanced and are to be used in various products...
Still, I'd tend to believe that the 360 was not as expensive to develop as the Ps3.
2010 most likely but don't rule out a 4 year cycle. One must consider the possibility of extending the 360 technology into 720 in contrast to 360 being a completely different design from xbox. This will allow devs to get up to speed much faster and ease their transition as well as lower the costs for R&D (assuming ATI/AMD will still be in the graphics business come 2009 ). This same ease of transition exists for Sony as well of course but this scenario is heavily in MS's favor as ps3 is geared for profits later in it's life. If MS shoots for and makes XMAS 2009 with 720 and we assume ps3 can also hit a four year cycle and comes out a year later we have to examine the likely console landscape in that timeframe:
2009
ps3 likely just now selling for $200.
360 likely has been selling for $200 (or less) for 2 years now.
These price structures should indicate that MS at this point would either be equal to ps3 or very close to equal in marketshare.
By releasing the 720 at this point would shift focus from 360/ps3 gen onto next gen and again they would have the jump on the competition but unlike the 360/ps3 gen, they will have the momentum significantly on their side.
While I don't think this scenario would put Sony out of business or out of the console/playstation business, it would almost guarantee the 720/ps4 gen would be lead by MS.
How that would affect profits etc is almost impossible to call but along the lines of marathon/sprint this would seem to be the logical method to gain significant profitability in the long run. Also if they are able to hit the $200 price point next year (likely) they could hold that same pricepoint until they release 720. Hence giving them significant profitability on each box sold come 2009 and likely still by that time 360 would be selling for cheaper than ps3 (not comparing feature to feature I know).
My thoughts anyway.
). This same ease of transition exists for Sony as well of course but this scenario is heavily in MS's favor as ps3 is geared for profits later in it's life. If MS shoots for and makes XMAS 2009 with 720 and we assume ps3 can also hit a four year cycle and comes out a year later we have to examine the likely console landscape in that timeframe:2009
ps3 likely just now selling for $200.
360 likely has been selling for $200 (or less) for 2 years now.
These price structures should indicate that MS at this point would either be equal to ps3 or very close to equal in marketshare.
By releasing the 720 at this point would shift focus from 360/ps3 gen onto next gen and again they would have the jump on the competition but unlike the 360/ps3 gen, they will have the momentum significantly on their side.
While I don't think this scenario would put Sony out of business or out of the console/playstation business, it would almost guarantee the 720/ps4 gen would be lead by MS.
How that would affect profits etc is almost impossible to call but along the lines of marathon/sprint this would seem to be the logical method to gain significant profitability in the long run. Also if they are able to hit the $200 price point next year (likely) they could hold that same pricepoint until they release 720. Hence giving them significant profitability on each box sold come 2009 and likely still by that time 360 would be selling for cheaper than ps3 (not comparing feature to feature I know).
My thoughts anyway.
Johnny Awesome
Veteran
Of course it's possible. MS execs believe that one day the consumer will see no difference between the Xbox line and the PS line in terms of value, then they'll drop the price to grab more and more marketshare from Sony. MS is willing to lose $20 billion or more to force Sony out of the console market, because they know that they will reap billions more in profits over the longer term. Not to mention the fact that they will protect their core Windows business by doing so.
By releasing in 2010 they will be precieved as once again rushing to market and cutting the lifespan of the console short, and put themselves in a position of being significantly behind the technology that will likely be included in the PS4 which wouldn't ship until 2 years later.
Or, to put it in simple terms.
If the next Xbox ships in 2010 then it really would be Xbox 2.5 compared to the PS4 that wouldn't ship until 2012.
Johnny Awesome
Veteran
Not at ANY cost. That would be silly. But rest assured that they both want the other out of the market.
Johnny Awesome
Veteran
MS will support the system with more software than they did Xbox and instead of 4 years it will be 5 years, but I wouldn't count on more than 5.5 years out of X360.
If they percieve no difference then the logical conclusion would be to expect a 50-50 split in the market.
The only way MS could force Sony out of the market completely is to convince so many people that the Xbox is so superior that Sony's consoles don't sell well enough to generate a profit and Sony execs feel like they will never be able to catch back up, and thus, decide to leave the market. They would have to convince over 80% of the market that the Xbox is flat out better than Sony's systems in every way.
Do you honestly believe that is possible with the Xbox 360?
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