By releasing in 2010 they will have a 5 year cycle. How is that "xbox2.5"? If MS does launch in 2010 Sony will not wait two years to counter. Two years after 720 along with the momentum MS would already have at that point would spell doom to ps4. At that point they would be facing a ~20 million unit hole and a competitor that is gaining momentum. Regardless of what Sony's internal philosophy is, one cannot operate a business with no regard to its competitors.
Next Xbox already in planning
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By releasing in 2010 they will have a 5 year cycle. How is that "xbox2.5"? If MS does launch in 2010 Sony will not wait two years to counter. Two years after 720 along with the momentum MS would already have at that point would spell doom to ps4. At that point they would be facing a ~20 million unit hole and a competitor that is gaining momentum. Regardless of what Sony's internal philosophy is, one cannot operate a business with no regard to its competitors.
Not true. The best selling products aren't always the best performing products.
MS simply needs to produce a "good enough" solution for the right price and market appropriately.
Johnny Awesome
Veteran
Not if they launch in Spring of 2011. That way they can get through the launch and have one holiday to themselves.
Honestly, don't you think gamers are getting older (like you don't stop playing video games once you have a job) and therefore, have more money to spend (at least the growing number of working gamers) ?
We can afford to buy a new system every 4/5 years. If in 2 years my 360 games end up looking bad vs ps3 games, I'll get a ps3 unless Ms releases a new system soon. I have the money, so do most working gamers. I'll probably end up buying a ps3 anyway, once the price tag drops, right now, I consider it as obscene.
We can afford to buy a new system every 4/5 years. If in 2 years my 360 games end up looking bad vs ps3 games, I'll get a ps3 unless Ms releases a new system soon. I have the money, so do most working gamers. I'll probably end up buying a ps3 anyway, once the price tag drops, right now, I consider it as obscene.
Johnny Awesome
Veteran
Not this generation. If consumers think Xbox/PS are equivalent they will naturally select the one with the lower price. Why would they do otherwise?
All these things I speak about are long-term.
Johnny Awesome
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That's completely true, mainly because the software advantage of being 1.5-2 years earlier in the market would outway the hardware advantage of being the latecomer IMO. Developers and publishers would probably be fine with 2010 as they would be able to throw late-gen PS3 ports onto a new MS system while they are readying truly next-gen offerings for 2011.
Because the PS4 wouldn't release until 2012, giving Sony 2 full years to improve the tech beyond what would be in MS's system. Do you have any idea how much tech advances in 2 years?
Sony could easily wait 2 years because MS would lose the momentum by launching yet another system so early.
This isn't exactly a new concept. Sega tried doing the 4-5 year lifecycle, and just look where that got them. People want their consoles to last a LONG time, not to have to replace them just a couple of years after they buy them. What do you think would happen to MS's late 2008-2010 sales if everyone knew a new system would come in late 2010? Think anyone would rush out to buy a 360 if they knew the 720 was right around the corner?
And yet you think MS could operate their business with no regards to what Sony plans to do.
Brand loyalty, trust, past experience, popularity, peer pressure, misguided beliefs.
Why do people buy more Toyota Camrys than Honda Accords when they are both basically equal and the Accord is slightly cheaper?
Exactly - similar to their efforts on 360. Ports in year 1 and true next-gen software in year 2.
To any devs/pubs on this forum: When did you know 360/ps3 would be coming to market? As this is critical to your future financial planning I imagine they hinted at a timeframe somewhere around 2003 to give your companies plenty of time to plan dev kit purchases and future game devlopment planning/hiring.
Also to those that think we'll be seeing 64/128bit color standard in 720/ps4 I'd have to say, why? The cost/performance in this model is rediculous. I don't think we'll see this in 720/ps4 as there are better methods to acheive higher fidelity color without crazy bandwidth requirements.
Before aiming for 64/128bit color I'd like to see them aim for 16xFSAA standard.
Oh and dedicated hardware for physics based animation.
And all Sony would have to do is to tell people to wait, continue buying their cheaper system which will have new games for several years to come, and then buy a better system than what MS is offering.
Going by this logic, why didn't ms wait till 2008 and they could destroy ps3?
Point is, come 2009/2010 Sony will not be in the drivers seat as they were in 2004/2005. They will no longer be in a position to dictate what the market will do no matter what they would like people to believe. They will have to be aware and ready to react to MS to stay in the game.
Difference this go-round is MS isn't Sega and as MS is proving currently, they can and will succeed in a short cycle console business. Sega was in financial trouble and facing the second coming in ps2. MS is taking the driver seat and facing a troubled ps3. PS4 should present MS with a much more competitive offering (price-wise) but again, MS will strike first.
IF Sony is naive enough to believe they can sit on their laurels and not release ps4 until 2 years after MS releases 720 they will have a rude awakening.
Not to sound like a jerk but actually yes, they could. Point is, this move is taking into consideration what Sony is able to do. They do not want to introduce ps4 before ps3 has been on the market for at least five years and preferably 6 years. This would put them at the 2012 timeframe as you said. The more MS is able to shorten Sony's cycle the more they can dent Sony's marketshare and profits. Come ps4 I expect Sony will not be pushing a console with a $100-200 premium over xbox720 so MS will not have this advantage in the 2015 timeframe. MS has a window to strike and significantly gain marketshare without costing them further significant investment.
Smart money's on a 2010 launch.
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Even in their prime (the past year) that didn't work all too well for Sony. In five years people will have moved on. Dedicated hardcore gamers will be where their games are, and in this vein there will be quite a few hardcore MS gamers that will buy 720 regardless of what Son'y has in store. The casuals again will be waiting to see who has the best price for the games they know and love.
I'd say if they launch 720 a year ahead of ps4 they will have at least a 10 mill headstart again and possibly more as they gain more fans/marketshare. Why would Sony want to dig themselves a deeper hole in the 2010 timeframe by waiting till 2012? Do you honestly think they will maintain the same marketshare with ps3 that they had with ps2?
If they do then you have a point. If they lose marketshare then they will act aggressively to gain it back. Waiting two years to challenge their competitor won't be fruitful for them.
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One word: Dreamcast.
Lol reminds me of some of the stuff i read about old school nintendo, and how sega managed to get a good share of the market with genesis.
I find the discussion so far pretty interesting reading peoples takes on things, but people seem to be looking at things far to simply, breaking the market down to 2 competitors when there are 3, forgetting that sony, managed to sell the PSX for about 10 years and they would likely do the same with both the PS2 and the PS3 regardless of when their successors launch.
On top of that MS trying to run sony out of the market is ridiculous, especially in the ways people are suggesting. Being aggressive in the ways suggested shows a lack of disregard of the real trends that occur in the market, the most obvious being that when a new console is released people dont just suddenly stop buying the previous generation en masse. The adoption rate of a new machine is gradual as some people have already said happened with the PS2.
Releasing a new console in 4 years doesnt instantly make the PS3 obselete, and even if sony launches a new machine at the same time they'd would still have their much more profitable PS3 also still readily available and with a much larger and proven/solid game catalogue.
And if Sony and MS are both trying to bleed each other dry then the only winner is nintendo and their profitable from day 1 business model
Dont know if this has been posted anywhere yet but theis seemed lika an appropriate thread: http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/19/technology/19soft.html?_r=1&ref=technology&oref=slogin
1) Nintendo is in the games market but they seem to be disengaged from the market that MS and Sony are going after. Hence I don't bring them up in a thread discussing the next xbox as they are targeting a different market. Sony however is a direct competitor to MS.
2) Yes Sony will sell ps2 in 2007 and with the high price of ps3 they will probably continue to sell ps2 by the time xbox 720 comes out. How this small piece of the money pie is relevant though, I don't know.
Releasing a new console does not make the old ones dissapear. Agreed, however it does shorten the lifecycle of that console and shrink it's potential profits. Otherwise we'd still be playing psx right?
Yes but as you'll also see this year, sales of the old gen systems and their software slow when a next-gen console is released. This affects the bottom line and each month that goes by that a MS has the only viable next-gen system on the market is less future profit for Sony. It is not a given that Sony will have the same marketshare with ps3 as they did with ps2. The less marketshare they have the less likely they are to lean on their current gen system and delay their next gen offerings.
This isn't about Sony trying to bleed MS. This is about Sony trying to establish a video format and mortgaging their Playstation brand to do it. This action has left the door open for MS to gain market leadership with xb720 by launching "early" in comparison to when Sony want's to introduce their next gen offering. Great thing for MS is (as I explained earlier) it won't cost them much (relatively) to do it.
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Megadrive1988
Veteran
Xbox 3 in 2010 methinks.
I don't believe Microsoft will fully make their own CPU. they will come up with some outline, and go to a real CPU maker like IBM again, and have them complete it. kinda like with Xenon, but Microsoft will be even more involved in the design process.
if you recall after Xbox 1 launched, there were reports that Microsoft would design Xbox 2 CPU and GPU.
did that happen? no not really. they had a big say about what those chips would be, and worked hand in hand with IBM and ATI, but Microsoft alone did not make Xenon and Xenos. like I said it will be similar with Xbox3 only Microsoft being even more hands on.
I don't believe Microsoft will fully make their own CPU. they will come up with some outline, and go to a real CPU maker like IBM again, and have them complete it. kinda like with Xenon, but Microsoft will be even more involved in the design process.
if you recall after Xbox 1 launched, there were reports that Microsoft would design Xbox 2 CPU and GPU.
did that happen? no not really. they had a big say about what those chips would be, and worked hand in hand with IBM and ATI, but Microsoft alone did not make Xenon and Xenos. like I said it will be similar with Xbox3 only Microsoft being even more hands on.
Lol they are all targetting the same exact market!! They are just doing it in different ways. At the end of the day they willl all talk about how they have expanded the market how they have got a new demographic buying their machines.
I dont think the PS3 price will stay that high for as long as your implying, well i guess that depends on what components are causing the high price, but if it is cell is used in other commercial devices and blu ray picks up then wouldn't that high price tag tumble soon enough?? Sony's biggest problem would be getting the price down as quickly while not allowing the price reduction to devalue their product
It depends on the console and the support the companies give to it afterwards. Abondoning xbox did shorten its life cycle, but at the same time i wouldn't say psx had its lifecycle shortened by the release of the PS2.
But my point i think was that i dont think it would be too crazy for there to be people only just getting tired of their PS2s in 2 or 3 years and starting to finally think about a next gen machine and at the same time there will still be people considering buying their first PS2s.
True. But the market was in decline anyway wasn't it? and the 360 isn't really picking up the slack is it?? Not that am saying your point is wrong, as its not, its just at this moment in time the decline appears more coincedental, as opposed to the next generation being the cause.
I guess what i really meant to say is i hope MS is smarter than people in here think they are. Trying to bleed sony dry is a waste of time and resources and they really dont help themselves, even if they succeed they only create a gap in the market for other competitors to fill, by that i mean sony's failure by no means guarantees MS success
Readykilowatt
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