Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [post E3 2019, pre GDC 2020] [XBSX, PS5]

[Barrabas]

I did a short trawl
https://gamerant.com/ps5-specs-rumors/
"According to Kotaku reporter Jason Schreier, known for his intimate insider knowledge of the gaming industry, both Sony and Microsoft are “aiming higher” than the 10.7 teraflops that Google Stadia will deliver"

 

[zed]

Doing 8TF in 2020 just don't add up for me, that's only 30% increase in 3 years from ONE X.

i also think they will be 10tf+.
But unlike previous generations Moore’s law is now dead, thus performance increases are greatly diminished (*). Though next gen I see the big benefit Increase is the cpu, the ps4’s cpu having less flops than ps3’s cell was just embarrassing

(*)seeing a graph of flop power of the consoles per generation would be interesting, anyone know of such a graphic?

 

[iroboto]

I did a short trawl
https://gamerant.com/ps5-specs-rumors/
"According to Kotaku reporter Jason Schreier, known for his intimate insider knowledge of the gaming industry, both Sony and Microsoft are “aiming higher” than the 10.7 teraflops that Google Stadia will deliver"

Yea I recall that quote from Jason when he put it out there. In a Resetera thread no less. Not enough information to really write an article about it.

Unfortunately his Inside sources don’t mean much imo this early in the process. Devkits on PC can easily hit that number but that doesn’t translate to release hardware. And aiming is just at best aiming. Has little to do wth the confines of realities that could hit both companies during the development process.

The way I see it, if I take Jason’s quote as truth, We aim all the time in competitions of shooting arrows, darts, billiards. Doesn’t mean we land the shot. While I hate being a pessimist about the future, can’t shake the fact that we will be disappointed.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

While I hate being a pessimist about the future, can’t shake the fact that we will be disappointed.

You can't be disappointed as a pessimist - not if you're doing it right.

 

[Globalisateur]

The more I think about it, the less I believe of a highly clocked PS5 GPU. It brings plenty of specific problems, while being OK in a PC, you don't want in a closed console.

For PS4 Cerny has favored low clocks + plenty of CUs (they had 50% more than XB1). What if he does the exact same strategy for PS5 ?

PS4 had 18 CUs, Pro had 36 CUs, PS5 should logically have...

 

[milk]

You can't be disappointed as a pessimist - not if you're doing it right.

By things going well?

 

[BRiT]

For PS4 Cerny has favored low clocks + plenty of CUs (they had 50% more than XB1). What if he does the exact same strategy for PS5 ?

PS4 had 18 CUs, Pro had 36 CUs, PS5 should logically have...

CELL in its Final Form.

 

[AbsoluteBeginner]

PS4 had more CUs duo to MS being commited to 8GB strategy long before these consoles where released. This meant they would have to go with EDRAM, therefore wasting die size on memory instead CUs compared to Sony.

I actually think Xbox One die size was actually bigger then PS4s even with PS4 having 50% more CUs. As soon as Samsung confirmed that they will be delivering GDDR5 enough for 8GB in Sonys console, it was game over for MS, completr strategic failure (bigger SOC, less performance, more complexity with slower memory).

Being that there wont be EDRAMs in new consoles, I whoever has bigger die size and cooling budget will have higher performing console.

 

[lefantome]

I did a short trawl
https://gamerant.com/ps5-specs-rumors/
"According to Kotaku reporter Jason Schreier, known for his intimate insider knowledge of the gaming industry, both Sony and Microsoft are “aiming higher” than the 10.7 teraflops that Google Stadia will deliver"

The guy has been wrong sometimes.

 

[Ike Turner]

The guy has been often wrong.

 

[AbsoluteBeginner]

On the point of dev kits, I wonder if both of them have non Navi parts currently? Perhaps even running Nvidia parts. Could be looking at 12+ TFLOP Vega in PS5 that would be somewhat equal to ~9-10TFLOP Navi in retail box.

Fascinating how little has leaked lately considering we are probably less then a year before hardware will be started to be mass produced.

 

[BRiT]

Fascinating how little has leaked lately considering we are probably less then a year before hardware will be started to be mass produced.

I speculate that MS has not shipped Next-Box DevKits to non-first party developers before E3 2019.

 

[AbsoluteBeginner]

I think someone (Matt or Phil) said they have to get dev kits to more devs at E3.

I do believe they have sent dev kits to developers but I also think they might have less incentive to do so given how their API works compared to Sony's. This is not 2004 anymore, devs know target specs are Zen2, that is x86 processor,a next gen AMD GPU - Navi. They wont be getting exotic CPUs or completely different GPUs this time around, so sending dev kits 1.5 yrs before consoles are out seem redundant.

I also think Sony might have shipped dev kits with Vega, whilst MS could have send it with Nvidia (since its 100% they are dedicating die size to ray tracing hardware). This is why reading into "Sonys dev kit has more tflops" might not tell the whole story. If Sony is running Vega and will have equivalent to Navi XT in their retail unit, MS might be running something completely different.

Last time around I remember roumors saying Durango is much more powerfull, and it was mainly because 8GB was confirmed in documentation, while Sony guaranteed 2GB with 4GB being "maybe". When it turned out to be 8GB it was checkmate.

 

[BRiT]

I don't believe any of the rumors that talked about dev-kits before E3 2019. They were all bullshit. Only first-party studios would have had devkits and they wouldn't go leaking details.

Why would they (Sony and Microsoft) have to ship devkits to outside studios before the devkit hardware is even in a Beta form? They each have a dozen or more first-party studios to get feedback from developers. This next-gen is even more so, as the CPU and GPU is just mostly the same, just more of it, same sort of x86 instructions and DX12 level features. The real difference makers is the fast asset loading SSD subsystem and the add-on Hardware RayTracing.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I think the vast majority of "Console A is more powerful" rumours are complete fiction. Fanboys just floating wishes upon zero basis whatsoever. I don't think anyone trying to have an intelligent discussion about next-gen hardware should pay any mind at all to any such unqualified and uncorroborated remarks.

 

[AbsoluteBeginner]

Yes, I agree with both of your points. If this was 04' and next gen arch was something like it was back in the day, you would want dev kits out early. Also, back then APIs and software environment was downright immature compared to what we have today, so having hardware early was must.

Today, only way to know how these two are compared power wise wise is to have official system documentation, and we wont have those for another half a year I think.

Neither Sony nor MS going on about TFlops and instead concentrating on SSD and CPU tells me we are probably getting slightly bigger chips then 5700XT with lower clocks + hardware ray tracing.

My estimates - 3.2GHz Zen2, 9TF GPU + hardware raytracing, 16GB GDDR6 RAM + 8GB of DDR4 and big SSD. That would likely be 499$ in todays market.

 

[see colon]

Neither Sony nor MS going on about TFlops and instead concentrating on SSD and CPU tells me we are probably getting slightly bigger chips then 5700XT with lower clocks + hardware ray tracing.

My estimates - 3.2GHz Zen2, 9TF GPU + hardware raytracing, 16GB GDDR6 RAM + 8GB of DDR4 and big SSD. That would likely be 499$ in todays market.

I'd guess that CPU clocks would be slightly lower to help keep thermals in check. Maybe 2.75GHz or so. I assume the 8GB DDR4 would be for storage cache, but I wonder if there would be advantageous to just add a bit more of the faster RAM because of bulk pricing and bus width. Honestly, the thing I want to know the most is how the storage works, and how they plan for expandability. If games are developed for a certain speed, are they going to allow for external hard drives like they do now? And if so, are we going to see weird performance like we do now when people run PC games of SD Cards. Or are we going to return to an era of proprietary storage. I defiantly can see Sony or Microsoft doing that, and maybe both.

 

[AbsoluteBeginner]

I'd guess that CPU clocks would be slightly lower to help keep thermals in check. Maybe 2.75GHz or so. I assume the 8GB DDR4 would be for storage cache, but I wonder if there would be advantageous to just add a bit more of the faster RAM because of bulk pricing and bus width. Honestly, the thing I want to know the most is how the storage works, and how they plan for expandability. If games are developed for a certain speed, are they going to allow for external hard drives like they do now? And if so, are we going to see weird performance like we do now when people run PC games of SD Cards. Or are we going to return to an era of proprietary storage. I defiantly can see Sony or Microsoft doing that, and maybe both.

I think there is lower limit with Zen CPUs where sweet spot is, so perhaps going lower by 400-500MHz would result in 10-15% performance drop vs much smaller drop in thermals, therefore not being worth the hussle.

 

[Shortbread]

"A little later than planned (flights, jetlag, other things), here's Rich and John with their take on the recent AMD Zen 2 and Navi reveals - along with what it all means for the next generation consoles."

 

[AbsoluteBeginner]

So DF recap

- Very happy with how Zen2 is shaping up
- Navi looks good, but perhaps not great considering its 7nm
- 251mm2 Navi10 + Zen 2 is standard console die size (330-350mm2)
- They expect 40CU with 4 deactivated for consoles, with lower clock speeds so around 8.5TFLOPs
- Hardware raytracing generation away for AMD, but glad MS announced they are doing hardware raytracing
- A bit suspicious on Sony saying they are doing "audio ray tracing"
- Devs said they are quite happy with PS5

My take :

- There is place on die for more then 40CUs considering shown Scarlett die
- This will result in further decrease in clock speeds but probably in TDP as well (compared to high clocked/ lower CU die)
- I expect consoles to reach low 9 - 10 TFLOPs and have 15% of die reserved for ray tracing hardware
- Gonzalo SOC leaked was in fact PS5 related
- Current PS5 dev kits do not have NAVI SOC in them but likely Vega part, thats where 12TF comes from
- Generational jump will be smaller on paper, but much bigger compared to where tech is today then it was 2013 when consoles wher compromised by very bad CPU and mid to low range GPU (Xbox One)