MS wants XBox2 out before PS3?

[Vince]

Personally Id like to keep my data local, I wouldnt mind an encrypted backup somewhere else ... but as long as my processing is local there is no reason for my data and programs not to be, except for presenting new and better ways to bleed money from me. I dont think I like the future very much

I wonder if anyone said the same thing a few hundred years ago when some outragous guy proposed to forever banish the private water well and instead have the city produce and maintain it. But, what if someone poisons the supply? No thanks, I'd like to keep my Water local, thank you. Or a few hundred years after that when some forward looking man said, in the future the home will have no generating source of power. Well, how insane is that? We need local power generating, what if the main supply is knocked out? We'll be without power or heat for who knows how long. No thanks, the demand is here; I'll supply my own power thank you. Or the agricultural revolution when they took the art of farming forever out of the local man and put it instead in highly complex and high-yeilding farming complexes. But, no! My food could be poisoned or infected! How do I know who sees it or tampers with it? Hell no, I'll keep it to myself thank you!

Computing will oneday be a utility - not all will be networked, but much will. Once you remove the BS incompatability and security issues the whole paradigm changes. You don't question the security of your drinking water or your power or your food, it's a given. You simply plug an applience in the outlet and it works - this is the future of mass market computing. Will it come soon, no? But the more important question is will it come? And the answer is yes.

 

[Vince]

I'm not so sure that necessarily makes Intel 'ahead' of IBM on process technology. IBM's CMOS8xx (.13µm) has been around longer than Intel's and CMOS9xx (90nm) will likely be available as well next year, not to mention they're solidly on their way to 65nm with CMOS10xx. That also neglects to mention their SiGe BiCMOS processes for mixed signals ICs as well (although there are rumors of Intel making a big push with 90nm SiGe, that remains to be seen). Then there's Toshiba who's already sampling .10µm devices (Sony makes the verification equipment for it), and has pretty solid plans for 90nm, 75nm and 55nm... In fact 90nm is a goal for a lot of people next year (foundries, embedded, memory, etc)...

Exactly, I can't imagine how people still believe that SCE/IBM/Toshiba are going to use a 0.10um process for a chip due out in 2005 when they will have eclipsed it in 2002. I think people need to read the press releases about the three of them developing advances lithography and manufacturing processes.

IMHO, 0.10um SOI liecense = Integrated EE/GS


PS. While on this topic, I have a question for those so inclined: How many transistors can be fit on a 50-micron SOI process with a die size thats within consumer limits and heat/power limits.

 

[Fafalada]

Well I was about to post a lengthy reply but Vince summed it up with his analogy better then I have. So I'll shorten it up a bit...

Personally Id like to keep my data local, I wouldnt mind an encrypted backup somewhere else ...

I'd expect some limited local space might stay, but very likely it would still be llimited to what the vendor allows you to store. No doubt other not exactly legal storages will still be avaiable to those willing to do it, but mainstream piracy could very well be completely eliminated this way.

but as long as my processing is local there is no reason for my data and programs not to be, except for presenting new and better ways to bleed money from me. I dont think I like the future very much

Well, what Vince said.
Also... consider computing without buggy upgrades, without even more buggy installers, not to mention constant patch downloading... having almost no need for system software maintenance, as well as next to need for constant hw upgrades.
Yes, negative aspects are there, some even scary, but IMO there are more positive ones still.

 

[Guest]

You cant compare PSX with Xbox, times have changed. It is impressive how MS can still carved out a market for themselves with the Playstation dominance. But things will change once MS secured themselves this generation. 8)

MS Xbox has already brought gaming audio to the next level, that with the built in HD and HDTV support, Xbox has done more than PS2 and Cube.
Live looks to kick start online console gaming, something which Sony and Nintendo can only hope to do with the PS3 and Cube2.

GS and EE(no pixel effects? LOL) proves that custom tech might not be too cool this time round.
CELL/EE2/GS2 might just fail to live up to the hype.
Do you think NV? will make them its bitches again?

 

[marconelly!]

Live looks to kick start online console gaming, something which Sony and Nintendo can only hope to do with the PS3 and Cube2.

Funny, that means all those people playing online on PS2 and Dreamcast have been lying to us all this time.

GS and EE(no pixel effects? LOL) proves that custom tech might not be too cool this time round.

It was pretty damn cool when the console launched

and

Do you think NV? will make them its bitches again?

If the Xbox launched the same day PS2 did in Japan, we can only specualte who would be a bitch, tech specs wise... It's easy to come up with something 1.5 years later, and brag around about better technology, don't you think?

 

[MfA]

Computing will oneday be a utility - not all will be networked, but much will. Once you remove the BS incompatability and security issues the whole paradigm changes. You don't question the security of your drinking water or your power or your food, it's a given.

I dont care about security, I care about costs ... simply put, I expect computation to be commoditized to the point that the advances in technology and the decreases in costs they bring will make parts of the industry as it stands unsustainable. At that point the big boys might just decide that it is more in their interest to sell us cycles and just stop selling us computers and our own software altogether. We already have a an example that a virtual monopoly can arise in the computing world and cause lots of trouble, if we give that much control out of hand the potential for abuse is larger still.

 

[Guest]

Xbox Live is the true online plans, what Sony and (maybe)Nintendo hoped to achieve .
DC and current PS2 online is pretty basic in terms of what Sony wished to do.
So MS online infrastructure and plans are ahead of Sony, which would be crucial come next gen.

DC had dot3 support....and texture kompression

GC came out <6 months and Xbox is still way superior...

 

[marconelly!]

DC had dot3 support....and texture kompression

Er, so what?

GC came out <6 months and Xbox is still way superior...

GC launched before the Xbox, and at the lower price. Is it that weird that it's not superior?

 

[Vince]

Mfa: You worry to much. Your still fitting in to the mold of the people I used as examples in the previous post. These things have a way of working themselves out.

Chap, in the old days I would have just told you to Shut the Fuck Up; but I'm reformed so I'll go threw the trouble of actually explaining the wrongness in your though-process:

It is impressive how MS can still carved out a market for themselves with the Playstation dominance. But things will change once MS secured themselves this generation.

Whats impressive is that PS2 is selling at 5 Times XBox sales at TRU last week according to GA and PS2 has 77% of the marketshare, which is amazing considering all it's supposed disadvantages:

http://pub111.ezboard.com/fgamingageforumsfrm17.showMessage?topicID=22467.topic

MS Xbox has already brought gaming audio to the next level, that with the built in HD and HDTV support, Xbox has done more than PS2 and Cube.

Gaming Audio to the next level, right. More than the PS2 and Cube? If anything, I'd say the latter consoles have done more than XBox in that they've brought gaming even further into the mainstream - something MS has yet to chart a course into.

Live looks to kick start online console gaming, something which Sony and Nintendo can only hope to do with the PS3 and Cube2.

I can play PS2Online, I can't Live! Around 400,000 NA's were sold in the US. SOCOM and Madden 2002 were/are the best selling games for the PS2. Don't even start.

GS and EE(no pixel effects? LOL) proves that custom tech might not be too cool this time round.

While it's true that fragment/pisel shading isn't avalable nativly on the Graphic Synthesizer, lets look at some facts. As stared previously by Archie or Faf - they saw a GS sample running in '99. Your beloved nVidia was just finishing their NV10 - which is nothing more than 2 tweaked TNT raster cores in parallel with a new setup and front-end with T&L that uses like 15M tranistors (my memory is fading). Meanwhile Sony had a Graphics chip with 48GB/sec of sustained bandwith, 2400MPixel/sec bandwith on a 0.25um process with 40-odd Million transistors.

The diffrence is all in the temporal diffrence between the times each's front-end design was completed. I mean, the Graphic Synthesizer has 7M transistors dedicated to Logic - the NV2A has over 50Million for logic. Get a clue.

CELL/EE2/GS2 might just fail to live up to the hype.
Do you think NV? will make them its bitches again?

Failt to live upto hype? Maybe, hype is a bitch. Fail to impress? Perhaps, but I doubt it.

nVidia is the badass 'devil' and I respect their accomplishments, but their not infallible. Then again, my feeling is that the architectural diffrences in designs will be profound and cause many good discussions - but the visual diffrences will be negligable to all those who can rise above the meaningless nomenclature and 'dick meausring' of specs - Why do I have the feeling that you won't be one of the latter group?

 

[Guest]

Er, so what?

so PS2 aint that cool for its time.

GC launched before the Xbox, and at the lower price. Is it that weird that it's not superior?

Ok then, lets look at the Xbox or how about the DC.

Whats impressive is that PS2 is selling at 5 Times XBox sales at TRU last week according to GA and PS2 has 77% of the marketshare, which is amazing considering all it's supposed disadvantages:

Xbox is a total newbie, and it managed to do very well(in terms of hw/sw sold and 3rd party support), amidst strong competition from the old boys Sony and Nintendo. That is very impressive for MS first try.

Gaming Audio to the next level, right. More than the PS2 and Cube? If anything, I'd say the latter consoles have done more than XBox in that they've brought gaming even further into the mainstream - something MS has yet to chart a course into.

Cant see how anyone can argue about the audio thing.
Yes, Playstation did well to bring gaming mainstream, guessed its time Xbox brings online gaming to the mainstream. 8)

The diffrence is all in the temporal diffrence between the times each's front-end design was completed. I mean, the Graphic Synthesizer has 7M transistors dedicated to Logic - the NV2A has over 50Million for logic

Thats the point. Xbox2 might still get the advantage should MS chose to use Nvidia "current" technology.

Failt to live upto hype? Maybe, hype is a bitch. Fail to impress? Perhaps, but I doubt it.

I think Xbox impresses more than PS2, even when we consider time-time difference, do you not?

 

[MfA]

I agree I worry too much, but moreso because worrying doesnt change a thing than because it will all work out for the best ... because it simply does not always happen.

 

[marconelly!]

so PS2 aint that cool for its time.

How many games use DOT3 product on Dreamcast?

.
.
.

I thought so.

DOT3 could be done on Dreamcast in two passes. It takes four passes on PS2. Considering the much lower fillrate of Dreamcast, having it actually in the game is more feasable on PS2.

Chances of it being used in the upcoming DC games? Zero.
Chances of it being used in the upcoming PS2 game? Small, but not zero.

Ok then, lets look at the Xbox or how about the DC.

Xbox launched last and was more expensive. DC launched first and is the least powerful/least feature rich. What is your point again?

 

[Guest]

My point is, since you spoke about when console first launch and their pricing and their impressiveness....

well, DC launched in 1998 with built in 56k; its features are more impressive than PS2 for its time, at a cheaper price. and virtually all DC games run in 480p.

same with Xbox, 2001, built in HD and ethernet, at the same price with ps2, but with more feature riched than the competition.

sorry if i sound incoherent, too tired now.

 

[Vince]

Thats the point. Xbox2 might still get the advantage should MS chose to use Nvidia "current" technology.

Step 1:

Wow, I figured you'd catch on by my transistor argument and think about it without me needing to write it all, but no.

Due to XBox1's later launch, it used a much newer lithography techology -0.15um (actually it might have been trgeted to 0.13um, Ben?) - to pack over 60M transistors dedicated to logic into the design.

The Graphic Synthesizer used the 0.25um process and was only able to pack 7M transistors of logic in with the eDRAM - which brought the total count upto ~40M transistors.

The current Cutting edge from nVidia that would launch several months after the GS - the NV10 - had around 15M transistors on a 0.22um process.

The Graphic Synthesizer I-32 uses the 0.18um process and packs over 280Mtranistors; encompassing 32MB of EDRAM.


We can deduce the following from this:

a) The GS has >65% of the aggragate transistor count of the NV2A using a process thats several, several times larger and hotter.

b) The GS had almost 3X the aggragate transistor count of the NV10 - which launched right after the GS.

c) The GS I-32 has almost 2.8X the transistor count of the NV2A using a process thats 3(?) times larger than the NV2A's 0.15um (I forget, but it's geometric).

d) Due to lithography constraints on the GS - Which wouldn't have been there if it was on a more modern/contemporary process like the 0.18 or 0.15 process used by the NV20A; the GS's raster core is comprise of only 7M transistors + EDRAM. THE GS I-32 shows what can be done on a more modern process thats still 3X larger than the NV2A's.

e) If the XBox launches @ the same time/ time before the PS3 - it's general units will be inadequate compared to the specilized ones of Sony and no longer have the upperhand like it does now. Look at the following for proof of lithography/transistor count usability:

-GS (40M+) vs. NV10 (~15M)
-GS I-32 (280M+) vs. NV2A (~65M)

*Even in these cases the Sony parts use inferior lithography technologies. 0.25um compared with 0.22um & 0.18um compared with 0.15um.

f) Using the above numbers we can derive the following statistics using the patented How to lie with Statistics (tm) method used by many XBox supporters.

At lithography equivalency, SCE historically has around 4X the transistor denisty per die than nVidia


So much for OEM = Better. <makes farting noise and thumbs down>

Step2:

Prepare for enevitable reponce by Ben

 

[Guest]

Transistor count is cool and all, but we all know that PS2 is still texture limited, is no bumpmapper(something even GF1 is capable of) and has a pisspoor image quality.

 

[PC-Engine]

Just want to reiterate what Simon F. said in the 3D forum. All of Nvidia's and ATI's GPUs were/are designed for PCs (except for Flipper in GCN), therefore they have to make a profit from the hardware itself right from the start. SONY's GS, EE, etc. however enjoyed subsidies from game sales therefore they can afford to make hardware that wasn't profitable at launch. In other words SONY could push .25 fab tech to the limits because cost would be offset by software sales. Nvidia or ATi could've pushed the limits of .25u fab tech also, but then they would have to sell their chips at astronomical prices because they didn't have software sales to offset a loss. Also none of Nvidias GPUs had embedded memory because the design philosophy was different not because they couldn't push the limits of fab tech. Imagine what Nvidia could've made with 50 million transistors at the time if they chose to push fab tech and had subsidies to offset the astronomical costs.

 

[zurich]

Like, are you trolling / playing Devil's Advocate / raving phanboy Chap?

The Xbox is superior because it came out later. The DC had superior IQ because of its radically different rendering methods (TBR). The PS2 was superior at not being superior early in its life because of its utter lack of middleware, tools, etc.

Fact is, the PS2 was a very impressive piece of tech when launched however many years ago.

Fact is, Xbox will NOT bring online gaming to the mainstream because America sucks at rolling out broadband at bargain basement prices (sorry, had to ).

Bottom line is, the Xbox is doing well for a v1.0 MS product, thats that.

MS is a terrifyingly fast learner, and I expect Xbox v2.0 to be the real fight (see MS vs Palm for more details!).

zurich

ps: weren't you the guy who was upset with their Xbox because the guy at EB said PGR had better graphics than GT3?

 

[Guest]

Yes, MS will make sure Xbox2 will be a very very interesting product.
MS products are always equal or better than their competitors.
No way will MS allow PS3 hardware > Xbox2 hardware, they never did cut any slack to their rivals, it wont start with the Xbox2. 8)

ps: weren't you the guy who was upset with their Xbox because the guy at EB said PGR had better graphics than GT3?

Nope, GT3 looks nice and all but it lacks somemore polygons here and there, and it has too much shimmering.

 

[V3]

Xbox should do alright, as long as it doesn't pull a Sega Saturn, it will do alright. If not Xbox2 will be a Dreamcast.

 

[Gubbi]

-GS (40M+) vs. NV10 (~15M)
-GS I-32 (280M+) vs. NV2A (~65M)

*snip*

At lithography equivalency, SCE historically has around 4X the transistor denisty per die than nVidia

GS, 40M+ of which 32M+ is in Edram
GS I-32, 280M+ of which 256M+ is in Edram.

DRAM being optimized for density and low leakage (power), what is the surprise here ?

Talk die size and power dissipation, everything else is misleading when comparing an Edram system with one without.

Capacity != capability.

The PS2 launched with a super fast rasterizer with sub-Voodoo 1 capabilities (no mipmapping). Not exactly state of the art in 2000.

Cheers
Gubbi