MS wants XBox2 out before PS3?

Discussion in 'Console Technology' started by megadrive0088, Oct 31, 2002.

  1. megadrive0088

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    here is an interesting discussion going on at Gaming-Age about XBox2 and the thought that MS wants it out BEFORE the next Playstatiion.

    here's the GA thread:
    http://pub111.ezboard.com/fgamingageforumsfrm17.showMessage?topicID=22056.topic

    here's the article with Ed Fries talking about XBox2 and PS3:

     
  2. zurich

    zurich Kendoka
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    Again, without a hostile takeover of Enix and Square, I don't see Japan warming up to the Xbox any time soon. I don't think Sony would have wrestled control of the livingroom from Nintendo if not for those two companies.

    zurich
     
  3. megadrive0088

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    Agreed. I don't see XBox or XBox2 doing well in Japan unless MS takes over both Square and Enix... or at least one of them. But even if MS continues to bomb in Japan, the other to markets, U.S. and Europe. are large enough (roughly 2/3rd of the global market) that MS would want to stay in the console wars with XBox2. I don't believe MS will have XBox2 ready until 2005 though, and I doubt they'll have more than a 3 month lead on PS3, if any.
     
  4. MfA

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    That would mean less than 3 years between introductions for the XBox and it's successor in Japan?

    Unless they started development in earnest as they were introducing the Xbox (as in spending a couple 100s of millions in R&D on hardware) this would cut the options for Xbox-2 down to Hammer/Prescott and some derivative from NVIDIA/ATI's DX9 PC architectures.

    Decidedly unimpressive, PS3 would kill them in IQ (if Sony spend their money right, there is always the potential for failure ... but hopefully they learned from PS2 to not to try to invent their own shape of wheel entirely, at least as far as the graphics chip is concerned). Maybe they took this approach because they realised they were too late to do enough research to rival Sony+IBM, since they prooved they can make a console from PC technologies in a very short timeframe maybe they thought that if they couldnt beat them in performance (unless they decided to lag them by half a cycle) the only alternative would be beating them to market.
     
  5. zurich

    zurich Kendoka
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    Doubt it, Take-2's CEO said that SCE is hell bent on milking the PS2 for all its worth, and we probably wont see a PS3 till 2006. (Xengamers)

    I'm sure MS won't have any problems with this either. I think both know that if they changed over to like 3 year cycles, it'd destroy the industry.
     
  6. MfA

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    I dont think m$ wants to get into the same situation they are in now though, so they will probably have a shorter cycle than the rest of the industry whatever happens at least this time around.
     
  7. Qroach

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    just watch. it will launch in japan first...
     
  8. Mr. Angry Pants

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    Why do people think Microsoft buying out a noteworthy Japanese development house would help their situation in Japan? If anything it would have the opposite effect, with the Japanese public seeing it as an aggressive take over (which it likely would be) by a foreign company.

    Microsoft definately needs a change of strategy, but if anything they need to get their nose out of Square/Enix/Capcom's arse, stop bribing developers to make games and for once try to come off as having a monochrome of integrity (closing down those stupid cafes would be a good start).
     
  9. CaptainHowdy

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    If MS did this, being its 2005, that would be shooting themselves in the foot, giving thier console less than a 4 year life..
    less being most people just got one this year, and the bulk of games did not really hit until this year. It would be suicide even in America. People who got the Xbox, got it because its the most powerful, and is supposed to outlive the rest.
     
  10. Mephisto

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    SONY will lose with the next generation. It's an old Microsoft strategy to win the race with quicker improvements over time. IE was a bad product but got better with every release while Netscape remained where it was. WinCE sucked and was unsucessful, today it's the best PDA OS. We will see the same development in the mobile phone market as well as in the game console market. SONY is sitting on their pearls, idling around, while MS is quickly adopting fast developing PC technology for the console market. MS can cheaply benefit from huge R&D investments by PC semiconductor companies like AMD, Intel, NVIDIA and ATI, while SONY thinks they're able to do all themself with a little help by IBM, a software/service company.
     
  11. Mephisto

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    Microsofts target is not to gain money with Xbox 1. The cost for the hardware and marketing is too high to pay it back with software royalities. The target is to beat SONY and Nintendo in the long term. This is a very long term strategy (~10 years). They will put money in that market until there is no real competition left. Then they can start making huge amounts of money.
     
  12. MfA

    MfA
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    Mr. Angry Pants I think you mean hostile takeover ... do those companies even have a majority of their shares outstanding? Ignoring whatever Sony and Nintendo own too (looked on Square's page, but their investors page on the English part of the site is MIA).
     
  13. ERP

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    MS just don't want to gave Sony another 12+month lead.
    Trying to convince a publisher that they should change primary skews after they've invested millions of dollars in developing technology for the market leader is pretty much a losing proposition.
    I think it's likely that XBox2 and PS3 will be released very close to each other. I know of at least one publisher who will be starting their first PS3 title First or Second quarter next year. I also know the first Xbox2 titles will be being developed in the same timeframe. Most of this early development will just be planning and it's doubtful, they'll be anything approaching a devkit next year. But it serves to indicate that both Xbox2 and PS3 are likly going to happen very close to each other.
     
  14. megadrive0088

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    If PS3 is not out until 2006, that will give the XBox a longer life span. Lets say PS3 comes out in Japan in March 2006, and late 2006 in the U.S. MS could launch XBox in late 2005 in all territories, spred out over 2005, before PS3, but not too much before. Another possibility is launch XBox2 first in Japan against PS3 in March 2006, then later in the U.S. against the U.S. launch of PS3. By 2005, Nvidia should have NV50 ready and ATI something beyond R500 which would both be well beyond any version of DX9. More like DX10 or DX11. An XBox2 based on NV40 or R500 would have a hard time against PS3, most likely. But NV50 should be another archietecture completely. So should R600. Whatever the case, MS would not want to launch XBox2 too early, otherwise PS3 will cream it will better performance. Best not to give Sony any length of time to change PS3. So MS should launch a few months before PS3 but not too much in advance.
     
  15. wazoo

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    You are comparin apples and orange. Nobody can force people to buy MS products in the console market. In the business market, MS is the leader and the companies want and pay for that monopoly. It make them feel better to have the whole line of MS products and support.

    Things are not the same in the console market. Unless MS start to force retailers to bundle the xbox with any ps2 ;)
     
  16. zurich

    zurich Kendoka
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    I have a feeling that NVIDIA and ATI have much more agressive R&D habits than Sony. If MS sticks with NVIDIA, I dont think they'll have to worry about inferior tech. NVIDIA's business _IS_ graphics, and good drivers/apis to work with them.
     
  17. MfA

    MfA
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    Oops yeah I meant to say DX10.

    NVIDIA and ATI can research their but off, but the big IDMs have a big process advantage that is not going to go away.
     
  18. Vince

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    Uhh... I posted slides that showed a network based on Cell launching in 2005. The previous slide, which shows the network tomography as of now contains PS2's. I think the point is demonstrated well enough.

    I'd say it launches in Japan earlier and Christmas 2005 in the US.


    MS could launch XBox in late 2005 in all territories, spred out over 2005, before PS3, but not too much before. Another possibility is launch XBox2 first in Japan against PS3 in March 2006, then later in the U.S. against the U.S. launch of PS3.

    Your joking me right? It's basically 2003 now, the NV30 will be the first new product based off the new CineFx core - which will be the base for the next ~4-5 years. It won't launch untill 2003, NV35 in late 2003/early 2004.

    If they intend to launch in 2005, they need production started in early 2005 -> Back-end design done in late 2004 -> Giving 4-5 months for resigns/test/layout fixes brings you to early/mid 2004 for the front-end completion.

    NV3A based core that meets MS's specifications.

    ATI will be on a R400 derivative by then. DX9 isn't even out yet, right? DX10 - if their even going to use it.

    Huh? Um, I think your wrong. But then again, graphics will only be part of the NGConsole.

    PS. Anyone disagree with my timings? I'd appreciate some factual rebuttals :)
     
  19. MfA

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    NV30's delay does not necessarily have any impact on NV40's schedule, independent teams and all, even if they are shooting for a 2 year cycle on average nowadays NV40 could be ready in time.
     
  20. wazoo

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    They have much more aggressive PR, you mean. Sony do not have to talk on its current RD before the ps3 unveiling, unlike ATI/Nvidia and their yearly release schedule. MS will not have inferior tech, and Sony wll be competitive too. The xbox is like a ps2 with one more year and half of maturation. Launching at the same time should yield to comparable power (unless one make a RD breakthrough).
     
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