Microsoft Responds To PS3 Announcement

[Qroach]

PS2 has a case, a CPU, a mainboard, a GPU, memory, now has an ethernet port, power socket, memory card ports, fans, optical drive etc. Most of the components PS3 will have.

Yes it does and still they can manufacture more ps2's now then they could before. Why is that? it's because they reduce the amout/number of parts in the hardware, and thus can produce more units faster. You can say the current PS2 has the same compnents PS3 will, but that doesn't mean they can manufacture PS3 at the same rate - this early on.

Well, umm, I sure will, because it quite obviously would have to be one of those things I just think it'd be component sourcing rather than assembly.

I'm saying this in relation to sony's claim of 1 million per month. I think itwill take them a year to reach that many units per month. In this case I'm assuming sony will have enough parts to handle the claim, and only taking into account that they can't manufacture them them fast enough even with the parts there to reach 1 million per month after launch.

I don't think it will happen, 1m a month from launch, but how on earth did I prove that?

You said they produced 500k per month after the launch of the PS2 in japan. to be honest i don't know how accurate that is. but if they couldn't produce 1 million per month for a system that is less complicated (parts wise) what would make anyone think they can produce twice that amount with the PS3 is beyond me.

1.7m was the average to date since launch, 500k was the apparent average around the time of launch. Oh, and why do you think supply improved? It wasn't because of increase assembly capacity, but improved chip supply.

Obviously manufacturing becomes easier over the life of the console. Using an average doesn't apply here because I'm talking the months following launch up to march 07. I'm not saying over the life of the console they can't reach one million units per month. I'm not saying they can never reach that number, i simply don't think they will reach that number with the first 5 months after launching.

I'm sorry, but your original argument seemed to hinge on the notion that one person was manufacturing all these systems, and that it wouldn't be possible for them to manufacture 1 per minute, let alone 43. That's just nonsensical. They could assemble 100 per minute given enough components.

now 100 per minue would be nonsensical.

 

[scooby_dooby]

IIRC, looking at the PS2 #'s for it's first year, it had a million at each launch, and shipped around 300k-400k every month up to the next holiday season where it sold a couple mil.

 

[Sis]

That little "law" Ballmer cites is incredibly silly, though, it's certainly not something he should hold on to or bank on. ...I've seen him reiterate this "rule" a number of times..it sounds like something Xbox managers told him to placate him about their position and their rush to the market, and he just keeps bringing it back out in interviews like a comfort blanket.

Don't overplay it though--that 10 million number is as good a metric to shoot for as any. The idea--which I know you are fully aware of--is that with 10 million units sold, a few hits (GRAW record breaking sales certainly should get some attention, as does COD2's), then you get more developer support. More developer support means more games, and typically the system with the larger game library wins. More games equals more consumers which should mean more sales. More sales for one console should mean less sales for another...

A whole lotta "maybes" and "should bes" in there, but still, the rule is a decent in context. I'll also add that the two biggest sellers on Xbox 360 today are both third party. Along with a 10 million user base, that fact certainly should get the attention of third party publishers and developers.

 

[Edge]

10's of millions of cars? all produced by one company? wow. that was sarcasim btw.

All kinds of items by so many different companies are manufactured in the millions each year. Mass production started with the Model T from what I understand, so I don't understand what reason you have that Sony cannot produce a million per month.

Unless we know of a particular component shortage, Sony should meet it's goal. Since we don't have this information on hand, we can speculate, and there is no shortage of that around here.

 

[scooby_dooby]

I was not being sarcastic. All kinds of items by so many different companies are manufactured in the millions each year. Mass production started with the Model T from what I understand, so I don't understand what reason you have that Sony cannot produce a million per month.

Unless we know of a particular component shortage, Sony should meet it's goal. Since we don't have this information on hand, we can speculate, and there is no shortage of that around here.

I find nothign wrong with Qroach's logic. They were not able to produce even half that #(1mil/month) for the PS2 in the months following it's launch, so he is skeptical about them being able to do so with the PS3.

To think they can suddenly double their past manufacturing capacity just because they say so is more than a little optimistic I would say.

 

[Edge]

I find nothign wrong with Qroach's logic. They were not able to produce even half that #(1mil/month) for the PS2 in the months following it's launch, so he is skeptical about them being able to do so with the PS3.

To think they can suddenly double their past manufacturing capacity just because they say so is more than a little optimistic I would say.

Well Sony better do everything in it's power to meet that (1mil/month) goal, as the consumer feeding frenzy around the PS3 is going to be the biggest ever. 3 million for launch is nothing, when I estimate initial demand will be 10 million hardcore fans wanting a new console at launch.

 

[Titanio]

You can say the current PS2 has the same compnents PS3 will, but that doesn't mean they can manufacture PS3 at the same rate - this early on.

Of course not, but I think that's more related to component supply than assembly, which is what we're talking about.

I'm saying this in relation to sony's claim of 1 million per month. I think itwill take them a year to reach that many units per month. In this case I'm assuming sony will have enough parts to handle the claim, and only taking into account that they can't manufacture them them fast enough even with the parts there to reach 1 million per month after launch.

If the parts were all there, I think they could easily manufacture that number. I don't think the parts will be there, however, to reach that number.

You said they produced 500k per month after the launch of the PS2 in japan. to be honest i don't know how accurate that is. but if they couldn't produce 1 million per month for a system that is less complicated (parts wise) what would make anyone think they can produce twice that amount with the PS3 is beyond me.

I'm not saying they can. I'm saying assembly likely would not be the bottleneck to that, but component production.

now 100 per minue would be nonsensical.

Not really, they've got close enough to that with PS2. You'd probably be hitting issues with demand at that point, however

Look, rewinding to your original point:

Are they nuts? There's no way you can manufacture something as complicated as these game consoles with all the parts required, in one minute let alone 47 of them. look how close that is to one per second! I wouldn't be suprised if it took 5-10 minutes to manufacture one of these machines

This just is not true, and does not make sense. Given the components they can be firing dozens off the production line per minute (using your figures). They don't manufacture these one-by-one, with (multple) production line(s) you can have many rolling off in very quick succession, as long as your component supply does not bottleneck you. The final assembly process won't be what bottlenecks PS3 starting out, IMO.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Well Sony better do everything in it's power to meet that (1mil/month) goal, as the consumer feeding frenzy around the PS3 is going to be the biggest ever. 3 million for launch is nothing, when I estimate initial demand will be 10 million hardcore fans wanting a new console at launch.

agreed. i think their goal is a little lofty though, we'll see.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I find nothign wrong with Qroach's logic. They were not able to produce even half that #(1mil/month) for the PS2 in the months following it's launch, so he is skeptical about them being able to do so with the PS3.

An advantage over PS2 is the experience gained in fabbing chips prior to PS3. PS2's components were fresh technology. PS3's components are mostly 6+ months old when it launches. thus the manfucturing rate should I think be compared to PS2 six months after launch. Cell is a year old. BRDs are perhaps the limiting factor depending on efficiency and availability of diodes.

I see 1 million as optimisitic but attainable. The rest of the components are added in little time due to the efficiency of robotic manufacturing and production-line engineering, so production hinges on the slowest component.

 

[scooby_dooby]

I wish I knew where I saw that sales chart of ps2 over the first year, cause my memory's a little fuzzy, but IIRC if you look at the #'s post US launch, which was what 4 months after japan? They are still in the 300-400k/month region. So, they;re already 6 months into production at that point, and are not getting anywhere close to 1mil/month.

As we saw with 360 bottlenecks can be unexpected, who would've thought it would be RAM that held up the 360 production?

This would really be unparalleled in console history, but I guess if anyone could pull it off it'd be Sony. We'll see.

 

[Bobbler]

Apparently you don't need any sort of logical argument to actually carry on a debate...

Assembling anything is really more limited by the number of components you have -- you can almost always add more people to an assembly line (or create another assembly line all together) and be better off (it's one of those embarassingly parallel tasks that work well when (super) pipelined =p).

It may well take an hour to make a PS2, PSP, or PS3, but they can make 100 of them in parallel and have small steps -- at that point you get quite a few per minute once they get started (which would initially take as long as the first product takes to create). You also have multiple factories... It would be pretty "easy" to make a few hundred per minute if they could supply the components to the assembly places. If Sony can make enough Cells and RSXs and get enough of a supply of XDR/GDDR3 they should be more or less able to meet their goals -- The optimistic side of me thinks they might have some idea about their production capacity given their almost complete control over the innards, but the pesimistic side of me thinks its a rather lofty goal to start off running nearly full speed. More power to 'em (and everyone) if they can meet their goals.

I can't believe anyone would argue that it isn't possible to create multiple of something per minute, regardless of how complex one deems it.

 

[Tap In]

While I agree that the assembly part of the argument is weak, the component supply argument is not.

I have a hard time believing that they will have a steady stream of components to maintain that assembly rate.

 

[scooby_dooby]

The optimistic side of me thinks they might have some idea about their production capacity given their almost complete control over the innards, but the pesimistic side of me thinks its a rather lofty goal to start off running nearly full speed. More power to 'em (and everyone) if they can meet their goals.

The pessimistic side of me thinks that even if they know they can't reach these goals, they're putting them out there to make publishers believe they'll have a lare install base by early march, and make purchasers think that they have a good chance of actually getting a ps3 around launch time, slowing 360 sell-through.

 

[zRifle1z]

The pessimistic side of me thinks that even if they know they can't reach these goals, they're putting them out there to make publishers believe they'll have a lare install base by early march, and make purchasers think that they have a good chance of actually getting a ps3 around launch time, slowing 360 sell-through.

Exactly!!!

And this is what I wish Sony would stop doing, but hey if in business you can keep "pulling the wool" over the customer's and the media's eye and succeed why stop?

The February 10th PS3 article by Kikizo has a lot more credibility when you think about it. This statement says it better than any:

"We don't have much idea why Sony has been so quiet about PS3 lately, but in light of today's manufacturing and development status, one theory is that it's simply having a bit of an internal think about how best to proceed, and of course, how best to communicate their strategy to the industry and gamers, without taking the slightest PR setback in the process. In fact, considering Sony, they'd be more likely to turn it all around back into massive excitement all over again."

(link: http://games.kikizo.com/news/200602/065_p5.asp )

I believe the rest of the article will be just as true. Hopefully GDC will shine more light on what's really going on behind all the smoke and mirrors.

 

[thekey]

Xbox 360 was just hacked wonder how this affect MS. Check my thread

 

[liolio]

If the mod is easy to do I think this can be a good new for MS.
Piracy is part of the market, casual gamers buy few games a year, and play copies in between.
Nobody complain about piracy on PS2 (exept dev and editors...).
By far not a bad new for MS.

 

[Mortimer]

While assembly lines is REALLY easy to parallelize, it also costs a LOT of money to do so. More people and machines and more space for the people and machines.

You don't want to have too much people and machines etc. at first. That's why Microsoft started with only two factories and have just added third one. If you overestimate demand (not likely in this case, but anyway) you're f****d. And it also takes time to get everything rolling when adding a new factory and you can learn from the earlier factories and not make the same mistakes.

So you start with a few factories and get them up to speed and after that you add more factories if there's still more demand than supply).