Microsoft E3 2009 Keynote Thread

[Silent_Buddha]

You know, new control paradigms (such as motion control) are cool and all, but I think too many of you are automatically assuming it is the "magic bullet", I guess because that is what you perceive to be the reason for the Wii's success. I'm not so sure.

Wii's success might be due to something as simple as the "ipod phenomenon", which is basically that it's cool, affordable, and everyone is talking about it so much that it becomes sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

I'm not sure if many of us consider this as a magic bullet, but as a possible revolution in control and how you think about games. Assuming it's pulled off wel.

As to perception. This being all informal.

But when MS made their keynote. I got bombarded by IM's from friends who do and (more importantly) don't own a console about it. People that were previously uninterested in the X360 were suddenly messaging me asking if I had seen this new body control "thing."

No such response from the PS3 keynote. So I pinged some people asking/mentioning it. And the biggest comment I got was, "Oh you mean like the Wii?" And then, "Oh look, that new PSP go looks pretty cool."

While the PS3 has the more mature control scheme. In that it can leverage work devs have done on Wii (not entirely all that successfully other than Nintendo and I doubt Nintendo want to make games for PS3).

MS has more awareness and excitement among...I don't know how to call them. Casuals? Non-console types? The biggest obstacle facing MS right now is actually delivering a solid product with a range of gaming and non-gaming applications.

Regards,
SB

 

[TheChefO]

I know what you mean, but I'm saying that trying to pretend that 360+Natal isn't a 360 isn't going to work well. They need to reinforce the xbox brand, instead.

I strongly disagree.

As we've seen with every other add-on in console history, it will not be supported and it will die. Take a look at ps-eye or xb360 cam for examples of technology that had/has potential ... but just sits on the shelf and rots.

Unless they can get costs down enough to include it in every box from this point forth along with all the other goodies, it should have it's own platform/marketing/games.

Part of the formula for success is in making a technology important enough in all aspects ... ads, marketing, dev support, budget.

 

[obonicus]

I strongly disagree.

As we've seen with every other add-on in console history, it will not be supported and it will die. Take a look at ps-eye or xb360 cam for examples of technology that had/has potential ... but just sits on the shelf and rots.

Unless they can get costs down enough to include it in every box from this point forth along with all the other goodies, it should have it's own platform/marketing/games.

Part of the formula for success is in making a technology important enough in all aspects ... ads, marketing, dev support, budget.

But my point is that making it its own platform/marketing/games is a big gamble because you need bridge games, and if the majority of games are being built for your other platform, you have a strong image problem. You need the idea that the 360 can play a lot of games, that it's a game platform more than a 'lifestyle' platform. Because even the Wii can't survive only on 'lifestyle' software. The Natal won't be able to either.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

But my point is that making it its own platform/marketing/games is a big gamble because you need bridge games, and if the majority of games are being built for your other platform, you have a strong image problem. You need the idea that the 360 can play a lot of games, that it's a game platform more than a 'lifestyle' platform. Because even the Wii can't survive only on 'lifestyle' software. The Natal won't be able to either.

Indeed. Eurogamer's awards for E3 are in and for best publisher, they chose Sony due to the breadth of their library. The reason PS1 and 2 did so well is in considerable part because the one box could cater to many players. What an MS console needs to get incredible success is to appeal to everyone. It needs to attract hardcore games, the backbone of the software industry. It needs to attract occassional players. It needs to attract people who like to be active, and people who like to think, and people who like to be sociable.

Look at any ubiquituous technology and consider why it is ubiquitous. Why is there a TV in almost every home in the western world? Because that one device caters to so many different people thanks to software. If there was one TV for sport, another for dramas, a different one for comedies, it'd be a mess. But one device offers everything people want. Consoles haven't been so ubiquituous because they always offered only a niche of experiences. If you liked fighters and racers and platformers, the SNES was greater, but what if you enjoy more cerebral challenges, or more active activities?

We're in a position now where one box can offer something for everyone, and it should. It makes no sense to divide your market over the same hardware, to offer Blue TVs for action and drama, and Red TVs ones for sport and comedy. That'll just generate a choice that isn't needed, and diminish the product's appeal. Everyone would rather have it all than have to make a choice to have only some!

MS want to get the Natal fun experience (we're assuming they build this experience successfully ) assocaited with their product so everyone wants the console in their house, because Teenager Tom can shoot people, and Girly Gillian can play with a virtual pet, and Mum can watch films, and Dad can race, and they can all get together and play Fun Stuff together as a family. The box that serves all of them offers a great value proposition.

I think it'd be wrong to be ashamed of the XB360 brand that MS would hide it away. A 'relaunch' with a new design and a new image will extend the existing pretty strong brand and establish the XB360 (could have a rename too) as 'one box for everyone' without a valid equal (assuming Sony and Wii don't do anything different). A launch of a new platform would have XB360 fighting against PS3 as the hardcore machine, the Natal fighitng the Wii as the casual machine, Tom and Dad wanting a 360 and Mum and Gillian wanting a Natal and the family breaking up as a result shock and the USP would be diminished.

 

[mrcorbo]

I strongly disagree.

As we've seen with every other add-on in console history, it will not be supported and it will die. Take a look at ps-eye or xb360 cam for examples of technology that had/has potential ... but just sits on the shelf and rots.

Unless they can get costs down enough to include it in every box from this point forth along with all the other goodies, it should have it's own platform/marketing/games.

Part of the formula for success is in making a technology important enough in all aspects ... ads, marketing, dev support, budget.

I strongly disagree with the idea that every console accesory fails. The Wii Fit board and Guitar Hero/Rock Band instruments are just 2 recent examples (one of which was even driven by 3rd parties) which sold well enough to become platforms for further development.

I see no advantage in promoting a seperate brand rather than promote your one brand as being able to provide the complete range of interactive experiences plus social networking and passive entertainment all in one box.

 

[TheChefO]

I strongly disagree with the idea that every console accesory fails. The Wii Fit board and Guitar Hero/Rock Band instruments are just 2 recent examples (one of which was even driven by 3rd parties) which sold well enough to become platforms for further development.

I see no advantage in promoting a seperate brand rather than promote your one brand as being able to provide the complete range of interactive experiences plus social networking and passive entertainment all in one box.

Rock band is tapping into the same market that Wii is. People that don't like standard controllers. Music is universal so most everyone can identify with it in a game sense. But I don't see a significant number of people buying xb360's or ps3's just to play rock band. I see traditional gamers buying rock band and some crossover with friends and family that don't like traditional controllers.

Wii Fit is directly selling to the same non-game public that bought Wii. It's a natural extension.

If Natal came out as an accessory for Wii, it would sell as good as or better than Wii Fit.

Again, natural extension of that market.



However .... The xb360 crowd are not the same as the Wii crowd. The games are different, the tastes are different, the buying and gaming habits are different.

As an accessory, it may have success. As a "platform" it will have success.

 

[TheChefO]

Indeed. Eurogamer's awards for E3 are in and for best publisher, they chose Sony due to the breadth of their library. The reason PS1 and 2 did so well is in considerable part because the one box could cater to many players. What an MS console needs to get incredible success is to appeal to everyone. It needs to attract hardcore games, the backbone of the software industry. It needs to attract occassional players. It needs to attract people who like to be active, and people who like to think, and people who like to be sociable.

Look at any ubiquituous technology and consider why it is ubiquitous. Why is there a TV in almost every home in the western world? Because that one device caters to so many different people thanks to software. If there was one TV for sport, another for dramas, a different one for comedies, it'd be a mess. But one device offers everything people want. Consoles haven't been so ubiquituous because they always offered only a niche of experiences. If you liked fighters and racers and platformers, the SNES was greater, but what if you enjoy more cerebral challenges, or more active activities?

We're in a position now where one box can offer something for everyone, and it should. It makes no sense to divide your market over the same hardware, to offer Blue TVs for action and drama, and Red TVs ones for sport and comedy. That'll just generate a choice that isn't needed, and diminish the product's appeal. Everyone would rather have it all than have to make a choice to have only some!

MS want to get the Natal fun experience (we're assuming they build this experience successfully ) assocaited with their product so everyone wants the console in their house, because Teenager Tom can shoot people, and Girly Gillian can play with a virtual pet, and Mum can watch films, and Dad can race, and they can all get together and play Fun Stuff together as a family. The box that serves all of them offers a great value proposition.

I think it'd be wrong to be ashamed of the XB360 brand that MS would hide it away. A 'relaunch' with a new design and a new image will extend the existing pretty strong brand and establish the XB360 (could have a rename too) as 'one box for everyone' without a valid equal (assuming Sony and Wii don't do anything different). A launch of a new platform would have XB360 fighting against PS3 as the hardcore machine, the Natal fighitng the Wii as the casual machine, Tom and Dad wanting a 360 and Mum and Gillian wanting a Natal and the family breaking up as a result shock and the USP would be diminished.

Shifty, I think you may be misinterpreting my definition of "platform".

The boxes would look different. The name would be different. The marketing and advertising would be different.

But, the architecture would be identical.


Games that work on natal 360 would work on xb360 and vice versa.

It would be like a red tv for dramas that also plays the same action movies that the blue action tv plays ...

Get me?

The differences would be strictly for marketing purposes.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Then why release the Natal camera later for XB360 as peripheral? Market the Natal, showcase lifestyle ads with the Natal box and show the Natal packaging at the end of the advert. Sell the new system to new customers as a new system. They never need to know. But also sell to XB360 owners. Put an advert on XBLive! where they already visit. Tell them they can get the Natal experience for only the price of a peripheral. That's going to offer the best chance of explosive growth.

I also wonder if your image of Natal is the best thing for it. What's being described is basically XB360 with two modes of operation - conventional with the controller for normal gamers, and Natal controller-less for casuals. I'm certainly hoping the Natal experience will be much more integrated, and conventional games will be enhanced with motion, expression, and voice recognition. It'll be a tragic shame if Natal leads to nothing more than a hands free UI and a host of party games!

 

[TheChefO]

Then why release the Natal camera later for XB360 as peripheral? Market the Natal, showcase lifestyle ads with the Natal box and show the Natal packaging at the end of the advert. Sell the new system to new customers as a new system. They never need to know. But also sell to XB360 owners. Put an advert on XBLive! where they already visit. Tell them they can get the Natal experience for only the price of a peripheral. That's going to offer the best chance of explosive growth.

I also wonder if your image of Natal is the best thing for it. What's being described is basically XB360 with two modes of operation - conventional with the controller for normal gamers, and Natal controller-less for casuals. I'm certainly hoping the Natal experience will be much more integrated, and conventional games will be enhanced with motion, expression, and voice recognition. It'll be a tragic shame if Natal leads to nothing more than a hands free UI and a host of party games!

I think eventually the natal experience will be more integrated.

For now, for games to be integrated it would be selling directly into the market of existing HC gamers and hoping enough of them have the add-on.

Or...

Bundling Natal in every box moving forward.

The only reason I insist on a separate platform for Natal is the cost. It is too expensive to pack in every console along with all the other bells and whistles.

If it were packaged with every box, you'd see scenarios like you said where controls of both Natal and a standard controller would be used simultaneously.

I don't think this is feasible for a while.

Natal will have plenty of sales and attention as a stand alone platform. If enough xb360 gamers buy the add-on (I'm sure MS will be able to track how many consoles have both a regular and natal interface) then we will see these cross games come out.

The periph add-on option will help grow the userbase as you said on existing xb360 users, but if done to soon it will stunt the image of Natal as a platform.

 

[mrcorbo]

Rock band is tapping into the same market that Wii is. People that don't like standard controllers. Music is universal so most everyone can identify with it in a game sense. But I don't see a significant number of people buying xb360's or ps3's just to play rock band. I see traditional gamers buying rock band and some crossover with friends and family that don't like traditional controllers.

Wii Fit is directly selling to the same non-game public that bought Wii. It's a natural extension.

If Natal came out as an accessory for Wii, it would sell as good as or better than Wii Fit.

Again, natural extension of that market.



However .... The xb360 crowd are not the same as the Wii crowd. The games are different, the tastes are different, the buying and gaming habits are different.

As an accessory, it may have success. As a "platform" it will have success.

As an accessory it may have success. As a platform it may have success. There are no guarantees either way.

I think it's all much simpler than you indicate above. Guitar Hero sold guitar peripherals. Wii Sports sold Wiis and Wii Fit sold Wii Fit boards.

It will take MS coming up with a title that similarly makes people want to buy Natal cameras for this to succeed. And if your eventual goal is to establish the Natal as a platform and through the popularity of Natal sell 360's to people who would not otherwise be attracted to the system why would you want to sidestep your easiest sell (people who already own a 360 and would therefore only have to invest in the Natal hardware) to focus instead on trying to convince people who don't already have a 360 to buy both. This seems counter-intuitive to me.

 

[TheChefO]

...why you would want to sidestep your easiest sell (people who already own a 360 and would therefore only have to invest in the Natal hardware) to focus instead on trying to convince people who don't already have a 360 to buy both. This seems counter-intuitive to me.

Eventually, I'd go the route of an add-on. But not until the Natal platform on it's own has had time to establish itself as a legitimate "console".


It would seem to be the path of least resistance to do as you suggest. But this is attempting to sell gamers on something they don't currently have a problem with. Yes, it's "cool", but $200 for something that's "cool" IMO is a hard sell.

On the other hand, presenting Natal as a solution to non-gamers is much easier to do outside of the traditional gaming channels. I'm sure most people either know someone that games or has a game system themselves. Most people have seen these things called videogames and have either accepted them or rejected them. To get someone involved that has previously rejected videogames will take a lot. It will take something so new and fresh that it can't possibly be related to existing game consoles in the minds of those that have rejected games.

Natal has the capability to bring these rejects to the store ... but not necessarily the xbox gaming section at gamestop.

It needs a very clear identity. A very distinct identity that isn't trying to ride the coattails of something that people have already rejected.


Then the fact that these xbox gamers can ALSO join in on their nongaming platform by purchasing an add-on still leaves Natal as a defined platform that serves the non-gamer well.




Really the potential for Natal isn't in the realm of gaming. I see more non gaming uses for Natal than gaming. These uses are just as exciting for me, but I don't see them being reviewed in Gamepro or Xgamer etc.

Things like:
dance,
martial arts,
languages,
local search (think google assistant),
"ask jeeves" type apps,
workout assistants,
childrens education,
College education,
sports instruction,
etc.

Even further into cultural specifics like dating simulators in Japan.


These things can sit side by side xb360 games at your local game shop, but really they're so far removed from that world that they really need their own section and platform IMO.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Perhaps Natal isn.t only going to be an X360 thing. Even MS reps said that the voice recognition tech is from Windows 7 - a lot of this tech could find a lot of other applications, from home PCs to cars and intelligent homes... Makes you kinda wonder why they've decided to introduce it on a gaming console first...

 

[TheChefO]

Perhaps Natal isn.t only going to be an X360 thing. Even MS reps said that the voice recognition tech is from Windows 7 - a lot of this tech could find a lot of other applications, from home PCs to cars and intelligent homes... Makes you kinda wonder why they've decided to introduce it on a gaming console first...

The console route is easiest to bring into the home. Wii proved that there are a lot of people out there that don't like traditional game controllers and/or aren't satisfied with popular games these days.

Natal will tap these people first. From there it can grow into many of the uses we listed.

As a pc interface, it would work for limited applications. Presentation and planning types ... web browsing etc.

The other thing is it will take time to get costs down to put in areas where it would be "cool" but not necessary yet.

Also I think they've had their voice rec in cars for a while now. Pretty sure in Fords they have it.

 

[Arwin]

Perhaps Natal isn.t only going to be an X360 thing. Even MS reps said that the voice recognition tech is from Windows 7 - a lot of this tech could find a lot of other applications, from home PCs to cars and intelligent homes... Makes you kinda wonder why they've decided to introduce it on a gaming console first...

They didn't, as Windows 7 is coming sooner than Natal. And voice recognition has nothing to do with Natal inherently anyway - Peter Molyneux just saw opportunities when doing the Milo thing and ransacked Microsoft for other cool tech stuff that was laying around and could be useful. At least that's what he says in his most recent Eurogamer interview. Big, and even small, companies can really work in Islands and forget that other parts may actually have something useful. I have a *lot* of experience with this as I've traditionally always been one of the first guys to try and break out of the box, so to speak. So I definitely know the value of what he's been doing and applaud him for it.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Rock band is tapping into the same market that Wii is. People that don't like standard controllers. Music is universal so most everyone can identify with it in a game sense. But I don't see a significant number of people buying xb360's or ps3's just to play rock band. I see traditional gamers buying rock band and some crossover with friends and family that don't like traditional controllers.

Wii Fit is directly selling to the same non-game public that bought Wii. It's a natural extension.

If Natal came out as an accessory for Wii, it would sell as good as or better than Wii Fit.

Again, natural extension of that market.

However .... The xb360 crowd are not the same as the Wii crowd. The games are different, the tastes are different, the buying and gaming habits are different.

As an accessory, it may have success. As a "platform" it will have success.

That's just the problem though. MS doesn't want a natural extension of the market they already have a fairly good grasp on.

MS wants to expand their market. And Natal is one of the keys of expanding the demographics that would find the X360 a compelling purchase.

It would make no sense making seperate products to target seperate demographics if it's possible for one product to service all market segments.

There is just no business model that makes sense with selling Natal as it's own product with an X360 and NOT allowing existing X360 owners "upgrade" their experience by buying it as an accessory.

Well, unless as a business you really hate making money.

Regards,
SB

 

[TheChefO]

MS doesn't want a natural extension of the market they already have a fairly good grasp on...

There is just no business model that makes sense with selling Natal as it's own product with an X360 and NOT allowing existing X360 owners "upgrade" their experience by buying it as an accessory.

I agree they don't want an extension of the xb360 consumer. That's exactly why it shouldn't be an add-on to that market. Yet.

It really boils down to how much they are looking to expand their market share. Do they really want to have a shot at every living room? Or do they just want some gamers?

I'm going to guess they want the former.

Let me ask you...

Why didn't Nintendo just add-on the Waggle to the Gamecube? They already had 20+ million units in homes. They were mostly in kid environments where there were families that would likely be interested in Waggle. They had a strong brand in that presence with family friendly game libraries.

So why didn't they just add it on?

 

[obonicus]

I agree they don't want an extension of the xb360 consumer. That's exactly why it shouldn't be an add-on to that market. Yet.

It really boils down to how much they are looking to expand their market share. Do they really want to have a shot at every living room? Or do they just want some gamers?

I'm going to guess they want the former.

Let me ask you...

Why didn't Nintendo just add-on the Waggle to the Gamecube? They already had 20+ million units in homes. They were mostly in kid environments where there were families that would likely be interested in Waggle. They had a strong brand in that presence with family friendly game libraries.

So why didn't they just add it on?

If the Gamecube and the Wii were the exact same hardware, you'd have a point. As close as it is to its successor, the Wii is a whole new console. Also, make no mistake -- Wii was the next Nintendo console. It brought with it the whole baggage of Nintendo faithful the Gamecube had, minus one or two who had a crisis of faith. It also helps that their main IP and the ones that bring that crowd can always be marketed to kids. MS doesn't have this advantage. They'd essentially be starting from scratch, market-position-wise, unless they marketed exactly to the crowd you think they shouldn't approach. If they can manage a slim-down/redesign, they should go with that, otherwise they should just market the fairly attractive white 360 they have.

 

[TheChefO]

They'd essentially be starting from scratch, market-position-wise...

That's EXACTLY What I propose.

They have franchises that are family friendly, just not as many as Nintendo.

Even aside from this, the big winner for Nintendo was Wii sports. Not Mario or Zelda.


The genius of this plan is they can eventually introduce the add-on to the existing xb360 crowd and potentially merge these two bases with games that utilize both conventional and Natal interfaces.

 

[TheChefO]

If the Gamecube and the Wii were the exact same hardware, you'd have a point.

c'mon ... They are so close it was really no point in even making a different spec. The games are indistinguishable from gamecube games.

The other point is gamecube gamers are not the ones pushing Wii hardware. Some are, but most are non-gamers.

These non-gamers are where Natal will pickup significant sales.




So really, why didn't they just add-on waggle?

 

[scooby_dooby]

But really the same thing can be accomplished with marketing, and a redesign of the console.

Sure, maybe have some slick Natal packaging looks like something new and exciting, but there's no need to not sell it as an add on. Just roll a bunch of really slick commercials showing the new slim console, w/ natal and a bundled price.

I don't think these 'casual' consumers would really know or care about the difference.