Microsoft E3 2009 Keynote Thread

[Nesh]

I mean a shrunk console to suit. An XB360 must be on the cards for cost reduction purposes. Make it look different and buyers will perceive it as a new product rather than a console they have already overlooked.

That sounds perfectly logical and an extremely good idea. Especially the bolded part.

 

[ShadowRunner]

You mean repackaging the 360 with Natal right? I dont think a redesign of the product itself is needed. They just have to include Natal in every package. The package should be redesigned to communicate the message to the consumer. Just like they did with the arcade and premium 360's.

The PS3 should do the same.

I think maybe Sony will hold off the launch of the PS3-Slim until thier motion control device is ready and bundle it in, they could effectively relaunch their entire system.

 

[betan]

I think maybe Sony will hold off the launch of the PS3-Slim until thier motion control device is ready and bundle it in, they could effectively relaunch their entire system.

I find this highly unlikely for early 2010 target release date purely from financial standpoint.

 

[Scott_Arm]

I think maybe Sony will hold off the launch of the PS3-Slim until thier motion control device is ready and bundle it in, they could effectively relaunch their entire system.

There was an interview with some big shot at Sony and they said the motion controller would be complementary and that Dual shock would remain the standard controller. He said that bundling was unlikely, not exactly in those words.

 

[Squilliam]

I mean a shrunk console to suit. An XB360 must be on the cards for cost reduction purposes. Make it look different and buyers will perceive it as a new product rather than a console they have already overlooked.

What about higher performance? Do you see Natal as requiring current generation games like Halo 3 etc to be run at 60FPS?

My impression is that to fully exploit Natal, Microsoft will have to release an updated/faster Xbox 360. Two Xbox 360s duc taped together should do the trick, and Directx11 compatibility should make the whole process more efficient. They can lean on the compute shaders for Natal as any GPU could easily be backwards compatible, but I doubt they could run the same Xbox 360 games easily if they updated the CPU hardware.

 

[Scott_Arm]

What about higher performance? Do you see Natal as requiring current generation games like Halo 3 etc to be run at 60FPS?

My impression is that to fully exploit Natal, Microsoft will have to release an updated/faster Xbox 360. Two Xbox 360s duc taped together should do the trick, and Directx11 compatibility should make the whole process more efficient. They can lean on the compute shaders for Natal as any GPU could easily be backwards compatible, but I doubt they could run the same Xbox 360 games easily if they updated the CPU hardware.

360 won't change for Natal. Supposedly Natal does the majority of its own heavy lifting, so the 360 should not be taxed for games that make use of it.

 

[liolio]

What about higher performance? Do you see Natal as requiring current generation games like Halo 3 etc to be run at 60FPS?

My impression is that to fully exploit Natal, Microsoft will have to release an updated/faster Xbox 360. Two Xbox 360s duc taped together should do the trick, and Directx11 compatibility should make the whole process more efficient. They can lean on the compute shaders for Natal as any GPU could easily be backwards compatible, but I doubt they could run the same Xbox 360 games easily if they updated the CPU hardware.

Ms would absolutely crazy to alienate something like +40 millions (by fall 2010) 360 users!

 

[Silent_Buddha]

What about higher performance? Do you see Natal as requiring current generation games like Halo 3 etc to be run at 60FPS?

My impression is that to fully exploit Natal, Microsoft will have to release an updated/faster Xbox 360. Two Xbox 360s duc taped together should do the trick, and Directx11 compatibility should make the whole process more efficient. They can lean on the compute shaders for Natal as any GPU could easily be backwards compatible, but I doubt they could run the same Xbox 360 games easily if they updated the CPU hardware.

Well considering Natal only processes and outputs data at 30 FPS, it's not going to be the ideal solution as sole controller for a 60 FPS game.

Although it could probably still be used as an additional controller to be used in addition to the regular controller controller in a 60 FPS.

Say quickly looking right and left in a driving game or quickly scanning the skies around you in a flight sim. Or changing camera position in a 3rd person shooter.

Regards,
SB

 

[Squilliam]

360 won't change for Natal. Supposedly Natal does the majority of its own heavy lifting, so the 360 should not be taxed for games that make use of it.

So in that case, an implementation with newer hardware could involve simpler processing on the camera side and shift that work to the console? Essentially what im saying is that perhaps a next(er) generation console could utilise a cheaper and simpler camera system. USB 3.0 should have the bandwidth as to not require as much compression on the camera end. (I hope!) Therefore they could bundle the camera with the system.

Ms would absolutely crazy to alienate something like +40 millions (by fall 2010) 360 users!

Wouldn't it be more alienating if they cut the generation off with a larger leap in performance? Like I said above, perhaps a better solution would be to bump the hardware slightly and shift the processing performance of Natal to the console itself and just use the Natal system as shown for legacy consoles. Think DS -> DSi type upgrades.

Well considering Natal only processes and outputs data at 30 FPS, it's not going to be the ideal solution as sole controller for a 60 FPS game.

Although it could probably still be used as an additional controller to be used in addition to the regular controller controller in a 60 FPS.

Say quickly looking right and left in a driving game or quickly scanning the skies around you in a flight sim. Or changing camera position in a 3rd person shooter.

Regards,
SB

What limits Natal to 60FPS? I haven't seen anything on that yet, so forgive my ignorance!

 

[liolio]

Some reaction about Natal from Patrick Soderlund, Senior VP of EA Games Europe

"I like the Natal," he says. "That's cool. It's an interesting device, so I'm truly impressed by Xbox. It's my personal favourite console... I think Microsoft is on a roll right now. They're doing really well. If I was Sony, I would have a headache, to be honest."

I kind of share this opinion Ms has put a lot of pressure on Sony and even on Nintendo even if they pretend they don't care. This is almost already "the next stuff to have".

 

[liolio]

Ms would absolutely crazy to alienate something like +40 millions (by fall 2010) 360 users!

Wouldn't it be more alienating if they cut the generation off with a larger leap in performance? Like I said above, perhaps a better solution would be to bump the hardware slightly and shift the processing performance of Natal to the console itself and just use the Natal system as shown for legacy consoles. Think DS -> DSi type upgrades.

I don't think it's good idea for multiple reason. I think that Ms is already likely to lose money on Natal, they will have to subsidize, with new hardware they would likely have to subsidize too if they want to stay cheap. I don't thinking that the saving done on Natal by removing say a 60mm² chip @90nm (thus produced cheaply) would make up for that. Not to mention that a well design chip/DSP can make quiet some work so we don't know how many "general purpose" horse power would be take away from the system.
Gamers reaction would be horrendous and after the first XBox disaster, the RroD MS doesn't really further bad publicity.
Imho should push out a really flawless 360 slim, pack in 16 or 32GB within the system (I would favour 32GB) and sell it at the same price as the current arcade pack. That would be a nice upgrade as Ms would no longer have a "sub part" (or percieved as such) system to sell. Using 45 and 40 nm part Ms may even make some money.
They should push the Natal 360 @299$ (same slim 360 as above + Natal) The few money made on the slim may offset a part of the loss induced by Natal pretty cost (I mean Ms may slightly more that 120$ to cover Natal cost).
Ms may try to regain more money with the sales of separate HDD for both remaining system in their offering. Every system sold would have what it takes to bring them extra money through the various services offered by the Live paltform.

 

[Squilliam]

I don't think it's good idea for multiple reason. I think that Ms is already likely to lose money on Natal, they will have to subsidize, with new hardware they would likely have to subsidize too if they want to stay cheap. I don't thinking that the saving done on Natal by removing say a 60mm² chip @90nm (thus produced cheaply) would make up for that. Not to mention that a well design chip/DSP can make quiet some work so we don't know how many "general purpose" horse power would be take away from the system.
Gamers reaction would be horrendous and after the first XBox disaster, the RroD MS doesn't really further bad publicity.
Imho should push out a really flawless 360 slim, pack in 16 or 32GB within the system (I would favour 32GB) and sell it at the same price as the current arcade pack. That would be a nice upgrade as Ms would no longer have a "sub part" (or percieved as such) system to sell. Using 45 and 40 nm part Ms may even make some money.
They should push the Natal 360 @299$ (same slim 360 as above + Natal) The few money made on the slim may offset a part of the loss induced by Natal pretty cost (I mean Ms may slightly more that 120$ to cover Natal cost).
Ms may try to regain more money with the sales of separate HDD for both remaining system in their offering. Every system sold would have what it takes to bring them extra money through the various services offered by the Live paltform.

I think that the Gamecube -> Wii, DS -> DSi soft transitions have been more successful and easier than the like Xbox -> Xbox 360 hard transitions on both consumers and developers. There is quite a lot of merit IMO to an iterative design philosophy. With large hardware transitions you're sure to alienate your userbase. With a smaller transition the people with older hardware don't neccessarily lose out as the older hardware is still supported.

By the end of 2010 there will likely be over 50M Xbox 360s in the wild, probably over 40M PS3s as well. Support for the system would not simply die off if the same retail games released for the Xbox 360 were forward compatible with an Xbox 360 Natal. Also a lot can be said for generalised hardware, if you're not using the DSP for Natal you're not using it at all. However with general purpose hardware you can make existing games for people using the traditional interface run better as well. You can also make the games run better and therefore improve the performance of the Natal interface as well.

 

[bkilian]

Good point. Will still need props though (not that that's a bad thing). Also that still doesn't solve the direct pointing issue. Could a gun prop be analysed well enough to trace its direction to a point on the screen? At a distance, a tiny rotation equates to a huge shift in screen position.

So I don't know if you've done any real shooting, but when using a real gun, you _don't_ twist your wrist to aim. Aiming is done with the entire arm, or more preferably by twisting your body and keeping your arm in the same position. I believe that the Natal would easily be able to recognise this kind of motion quite accurately, making a shooting game a bit more realistic, and not about pointing a laser pointer with your wrist.

 

[Scott_Arm]

So I don't know if you've done any real shooting, but when using a real gun, you _don't_ twist your wrist to aim. Aiming is done with the entire arm, or more preferable by twisting your body and keeping your arm in the same position. I believe that the Natal definition would easily be able to recognise this kind of motion quite accurately, making a shooting game a bit more realistic, and not about pointing a laser pointer with your wrist.

Cowboys and Indians game where you point your arm and say, "bang! bang!" to shoot. ha ha ha.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

So I don't know if you've done any real shooting, but when using a real gun, you _don't_ twist your wrist to aim. Aiming is done with the entire arm, or more preferable by twisting your body and keeping your arm in the same position. I believe that the Natal definition would easily be able to recognise this kind of motion quite accurately, making a shooting game a bit more realistic, and not about pointing a laser pointer with your wrist.

I know. Bad example. How's about a paintbrush example then? Big arm movements are fine for painting the room or the impressionists, but for someone to write their name or draw a bear with an umbrella, fine wrist control is desired.

 

[bkilian]

I know. Bad example. How's about a paintbrush example then? Big arm movements are fine for painting the room or the impressionists, but for someone to write their name or draw a bear with an umbrella, fine wrist control is desired.

Oh come on... impressionism is the future!

I agree that it would be nice to pair this with a MEMs based controller at some point. Maybe the Lips Microphones which have some sort of motion detection in them, no idea how good though, could just be a couple of mercury switches as far as I know.

 

[betan]

Some reaction about Natal from Patrick Soderlund, Senior VP of EA Games Europe

I cannot believe "we have maxed out 360" bs is still going.

 

[bkilian]

I cannot believe "we have maxed out 360" bs is still going.

Heh. Of course they have maxed out the 360. It's easy to do. We did it in our first version of the HD DVD code. We were running al 3 CPUs and the GPU at close to 100%.

Of course, 5 months later we'd added secondary video, significant performance and a bunch more stuff, and guess what, we were _still_ maxing out the 360...

When we got the reference H.264 codec we used, it was running the CPUs at 100% and getting only a couple of frames a second. A year later, it was running at a smooth 24fps, with a second H.264 stream being decoded simultaneously, using 4 threads and the GPU (We stopped there, because we'd hit our target, but if we had to, I suspect we could have optimised it further)

It's not about maxing out the hardware, it's about using it in creative ways, and optimising your code. I seriously don't think any of the consoles have reached that point. There's always room for optimisation.

Heck people are still releasing PS2 games that I would have thought were impossible on the system 5 years ago, and that things almost 10 years old.

 

[thatdude90210]

Not sure this has been posted yet. Like it or not, Natal did what it was supposed to, get people to talk. Market research firm Buzz Study found that Natal generated the most buzz, by far.
picture of top ten:
http://infegy.com/buzzstudy/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/picture-4.png

 

[liolio]

Not sure this has been posted yet. Like it or not, Natal did what it was supposed to, get people to talk. Market research firm Buzz Study found that Natal generated the most buzz, by far.
picture of top ten:
http://infegy.com/buzzstudy/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/picture-4.png

Actually such information wasn't really needed as you just have to go to random to see report about Natal where PS3MC is nowhere to be seen. And actually I think a bunch of people are sceptic, it will only be growing as people are shown more not mention being able to play with it.