Microsoft E3 2009 Keynote Thread

[grandmaster]

@squilliam: No need for any processing on the part of 360 for Natal. Microsoft paid a lot of money to some very clever people (not 3DV) to license an existing processor which they then married up with a lot of software and technologies already in development from within Microsoft.

Body-scanning, (multiple) voice recognition and gesture-based inputs have been in R&D at Microsoft for years. I'm very pleased that the gaming sector is where a lot of this tech is gonna debut, but you can expect it to be rolled out in future MS operating systems too.

 

[Squilliam]

@grandmaster: If the unit is able to process seperately, is there an alternative motivation for this as well? I've seen a video of the Natal interface being used to control a TV. (I saw the NXE in the demonstration in early 2008)

So could we be seeing Microsoft comoditising the interface and selling, something at least to TV manufacturers. I don't know if its the whole Xbox, the interface, the Live service or some combination.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

What limits Natal to 60FPS? I haven't seen anything on that yet, so forgive my ignorance!

Processing/output of data is at 30 fps not 60.

And the source can be found in various hands-on articles when talking with the MS people and giving impressions on the system.

Regards,
SB

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I know. Bad example. How's about a paintbrush example then? Big arm movements are fine for painting the room or the impressionists, but for someone to write their name or draw a bear with an umbrella, fine wrist control is desired.

Well, in the Kotaku article at least (linked in another one of the various motion control threads ) it was mentioned that there were no fingers tracked, but the hand is tracked.

So the system can track hand/wrist movements. How fine the control is, isn't entirely known. The only indication of how precise it "could" be is that Burnout Paradise apparently recognizes very small movements of the hands when driving. If going by the comments where many people who tried it used overly large turning motions at first and drove out of control since they didn't expect it to track well. Once they readjusted and just did normal driving movements everything was fine.

Well, other than having no physical feedback.

Regards,
SB

 

[obonicus]

Well, in the Kotaku article at least (linked in another one of the various motion control threads ) it was mentioned that there were no fingers tracked, but the hand is tracked.

So the system can track hand/wrist movements. How fine the control is, isn't entirely known. The only indication of how precise it "could" be is that Burnout Paradise apparently recognizes very small movements of the hands when driving. If going by the comments where many people who tried it used overly large turning motions at first and drove out of control since they didn't expect it to track well. Once they readjusted and just did normal driving movements everything was fine.

Well, other than having no physical feedback.

Regards,
SB

Burnout paradise might be tracking both hands -- the movements aren't so small.

 

[Scott_Arm]

Burnout paradise might be tracking both hands -- the movements aren't so small.

I don't know if you can make any conclusions about accuracy from that. You're basically holding your hands out in front of you, holding onto nothing. Some people wouldn't be very steady, so they have to leave a dead zone to filter out unintentional movement, otherwise you'd never be able to drive in a straight line.

I don't think the accuracy for fine movements will be anywhere near that of the PSMC. Although, the PSMC accuracy numbers are weird for me, because you have the camera, ultrasonic crap and the gyros, and all would presumably have difference levels of accuracy for different types of movement. I'm not sure which would be the lowest.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

So the system can track hand/wrist movements. How fine the control is, isn't entirely known. The only indication of how precise it "could" be is that Burnout Paradise apparently recognizes very small movements of the hands when driving.

The BP demo is tracking hand positon up/down (or rotation about the space between them), which though tracking the position of the hands, isn't tracking the rotation of the wrist.

I expect the hand tracking means this joint, the wrist. If you hold your arm out to the side and flex the hand up and down, it rotates about the wrist. The displacement is quite large and could be readily picked on the 3D camera system I guess. Likewise if you flex the hand forwards/backwards at the wrist. However, now place you arm in front of you towards the screen and using tiny movements as if pointing a laser to a point on a screen some distance away. The joint tracking here will be exceptionally hard with the 3D system. So I don't dount that they are tracking the hand and the skeleton has a hand joint, perhaps two for the fingers at knuckles as one large body (think of your hand in a mitten), but I do doubt that they are tracking every aspect of it. In fact the skeleton demos show the pitch and yaw of joints but not the roll, which I imagine isn't interpreted at all. What the developer probably gets is joint positions which is good enough for most cases.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

The BP demo is tracking hand positon up/down (or rotation about the space between them), which though tracking the position of the hands, isn't tracking the rotation of the wrist.

I expect the hand tracking means this joint, the wrist. If you hold your arm out to the side and flex the hand up and down, it rotates about the wrist. The displacement is quite large and could be readily picked on the 3D camera system I guess. Likewise if you flex the hand forwards/backwards at the wrist. However, now place you arm in front of you towards the screen and using tiny movements as if pointing a laser to a point on a screen some distance away. The joint tracking here will be exceptionally hard with the 3D system. So I don't dount that they are tracking the hand and the skeleton has a hand joint, perhaps two for the fingers at knuckles as one large body (think of your hand in a mitten), but I do doubt that they are tracking every aspect of it. In fact the skeleton demos show the pitch and yaw of joints but not the roll, which I imagine isn't interpreted at all. What the developer probably gets is joint positions which is good enough for most cases.

Ah ok, you mean rotation of the hand. Yeah that's a bit of an unknown and I would be inclined to think it's not very likely.

Although if there was a rotational value included with each joint that is tracked it may still be possible for the "stick" representing the hand to contain that information.

Just too little information is known about the actual capabilities at this point. But I'd tend to agree with you that the system probably doesn't track a clenched fist being rotated for example.

Regards,
SB

 

[liolio]

Not sure this has been posted yet. Like it or not, Natal did what it was supposed to, get people to talk. Market research firm Buzz Study found that Natal generated the most buzz, by far.
picture of top ten:
http://infegy.com/buzzstudy/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/picture-4.png

Here the complete chart

 

[Chisholm]

Why are ODST and Halo Reach nowhere to be seen in that chart? I can't see Brutal Legend in there either.

 

[obonicus]

Why are ODST and Halo Reach nowhere to be seen in that chart? I can't see Brutal Legend in there either.

And yet Critter Crunch is. Honestly, I wouldn't put a ton of stock into 'market research' that doesn't mention their methods. Did they interview people? Did they eavesdrop? I mean, they have a 'sentiment' comparison that they got by getting 'web reaction'. Right now, their study is just more noise.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Isn't this the system that measures how many times key-words come up in blogs, forums and such? And where did LittleBigPlanet 2 come from?! Is that the PSP version?

 

[AlNom]

Why are ODST and Halo Reach nowhere to be seen in that chart? I can't see Brutal Legend in there either.

They're off the charts!

 

[TheChefO]

I mean a shrunk console to suit. An XB360 must be on the cards for cost reduction purposes. Make it look different and buyers will perceive it as a new product rather than a console they have already overlooked.

Exactly.

It should be treated as a separate platform.

As a matter of fact, they should NOT have the natal system immediately available as an add-on for xb360 to help support the idea that this is indeed a "new" platform.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

As a matter of fact, they should NOT have the natal system immediately available as an add-on for xb360 to help support the idea that this is indeed a "new" platform.

Not sure about that. For advertising I'd agree only show a Natal system, but having the peripheral out for existing XB360 to catapult the user base and word-of-mouth would be a good thing, rather than leaving the system to compete with Wii for some months before leveraging the existing userbase.

 

[TheChefO]

Not sure about that. For advertising I'd agree only show a Natal system, but having the peripheral out for existing XB360 to catapult the user base and word-of-mouth would be a good thing, rather than leaving the system to compete with Wii for some months before leveraging the existing userbase.

Delaying the accessory by about 6 months would be sufficient to let it grow legs on its own.

Ads, media coverage and spot coverage on late shows, talk shows etc would all have enough time with 6 months. After this exclusive period, an add-on introduction would make sense.

But it absolutely needs to have it's own identity. Having it run on an xb360 will have potential customers associating it with that product and it's well established image as a "gamers" device and all that entails.


Granted, the userbase may not grow with traditional gamers as fast, but that is 100% ok, because that isn't where this system is targeted.

In fact, they'd likely see cross adoption of existing xb360 gamers buying the new natal package to take advantage of the smaller design that hopefully has a lower running dB level and less likely rrod.

Don't forget, the wii had no problem coming out the gate with very brisk sales. With this hardware also being xb360 compatible (ie the same darn arch in a new box) they'd see a pickup of sales for natal, but also potential new cross-over customers to traditional gaming ... and new live customers of course

It makes sense timing wise too. 2005 - 2010. A good 5 year run on the design. Likely will have the ability to drop the core price down to $150 by then too. Assuming natal is $200, they could pack it in the box for roughly $350. As a "new console" introductory price, that's fairly cheap. Especially when compared to Wii. Consumers will see a system that not only tracks a waggle, but their entire body... and as a nice bonus, the games on this natal system look a heck of a lot better than wii ... even on their new hdtv. Heck, it even plays their dvd's.

The fact that there are millions of users already on live ensures that when they want to play their casual games in social settings without anyone there at the time, they will be able to do so relatively quickly when the add-on becomes available to existing xb360 users.


Of course, you and I and everyone "in the know" will know the deal that this natal 360 is really an xb360, but to those outside this gaming realm, this is a new console that does what wii does, but better ... and isn't much more money.


Biggest reason IMO to have this system as a separate platform is for developer support. When developers can look and see a platform that is growing rapidly (I'm going to guess half the rate that Wii grew and say 250k per month) and has a great dev environment and a partner in MS that from what I can tell, has been very good working with 3rd party devs ... it spells success.

Wii success, no ... but Natal360 + xb360 sales could give Wii a run for the money.

 

[obonicus]

I think that distancing themselves from the Xbox brand would hurt more than help; Wii pushed too hard to appeal to the 'casual' audience and as a result they've failed to draw much of a hardcore crowd to their system -- their chances of being this generation's PS2 is hampered by this fact.

Not only do I have a problem believing that there's a 'sub-Wii' audience, I don't think that catering exclusively to that audience is wise. That's why I keep bringing up kiddy -- mom may buy the Wii in part because of Wii Sports and Wii Fit, but it's the kids that push the software sales. Again, I believe Japan is an example of Nintendo pushing too far in one direction, without realizing that it takes more than Wii Sports/Wii Fit to convince people who don't play videogames to start playing them.

 

[TheChefO]

I think that distancing themselves from the Xbox brand would hurt more than help; Wii pushed too hard to appeal to the 'casual' audience and as a result they've failed to draw much of a hardcore crowd to their system -- their chances of being this generation's PS2 is hampered by this fact.

Not only do I have a problem believing that there's a 'sub-Wii' audience, I don't think that catering exclusively to that audience is wise. That's why I keep bringing up kiddy -- mom may buy the Wii in part because of Wii Sports and Wii Fit, but it's the kids that push the software sales. Again, I believe Japan is an example of Nintendo pushing too far in one direction, without realizing that it takes more than Wii Sports/Wii Fit to convince people who don't play videogames to start playing them.

Two platforms.

I'm not suggesting MS abandon the xb360. I'm suggesting they come out with the xb360 alter ego (natal360) and support both.

Now, if there isn't a separate platform, then you will see an issue with diluted messages and possible issues like Wii has where they get no support from devs to produce real games.

 

[obonicus]

Two platforms.

I'm not suggesting MS abandon the xb360. I'm suggesting they come out with the xb360 alter ego (natal360) and support both.

Now, if there isn't a separate platform, then you will see an issue with diluted messages and possible issues like Wii has where they get no support from devs to produce real games.

I know what you mean, but I'm saying that trying to pretend that 360+Natal isn't a 360 isn't going to work well. They need to reinforce the xbox brand, instead.

And the Wii isn't lacking support because of its casual focus, it's a combination of reasons. Such as 3rd parties jumping on the PS360 wagon early in the generation and Nintendo's lack of relationship with 3rd parties. So unless MS decides to go in a radically-different direction from everyone else, they shouldn't have this trouble, as they've cultivated great developer relationships.

 

[NRP]

You know, new control paradigms (such as motion control) are cool and all, but I think too many of you are automatically assuming it is the "magic bullet", I guess because that is what you perceive to be the reason for the Wii's success. I'm not so sure.

Wii's success might be due to something as simple as the "ipod phenomenon", which is basically that it's cool, affordable, and everyone is talking about it so much that it becomes sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy.