Koei on Ps3 Costs

[mckmas8808]

The HD disc formats have only "better visuals" going for it

That statement is obviously wrong. It's so so so so wrong on all accounts. But then you say this like it's a bad thing. Better visuals is good to me. I have a HDTV and sometimes I watch girls softball on ESPN just because it's in HD. I watch worms on the Discovery channel just because it's in HD. The clearer picture is worth it.

But beyond that the interactive layer that these disc have for both Blu-ray and HD-DVD is going to be something special.

 

[Nite_Hawk]

Ignoring the need to earn the higher NRE costs back Id assume the PS3 would actually be cheaper to produce than the XBOX360.

I could see this especially being true for the $399 version of the xbox360 given the harddrive manufacturing costs.

Nite_Hawk

 

[expletive]

Just glancing over the thread, seems no one has mentioned the fact that Intel is also in the HD DVD camp and that MS also makes WIndows MEdia Center PCs. We touched on this in the dell/HP thread but you have to figure that at some point win MCE will support HD DVD natively, so basically every Win MCE sold will have an HD DVD drive in it. Also, i believe intel has consumer elctronics strategy with hardware as well for whole-house streaming technology with HD-DVD devices.

SO the HD-DVD install base will also be growing with MCE PCs and the Intel stuff (maybe someone else has more info on this?). Not to mention the HD-DVD 360s that could start being sold as well.

Point being they both have ways of growing their installed base besides stand alone players and yet i dont think that ANY of these is as critical as stand alone players (100% agreement with .Sis here). I imagine the attach rate for a stand alone player dwarfs that of any of these multi-function devices, maybe 10-20:1.

That means you would have to sell 20 million PS3s or HDDVD 360s to have the same impact as 1 million stand alone players. I'd be really interested to know what the actual attach rate numbers are but i bet theres a huge disparity. I think when you start talking in those terms (attach rate) it puts things in a better perspective of where this HD movie war will REALLY be won, stand alone players.

J

 

[one]

Just glancing over the thread, seems no one has mentioned the fact that Intel is also in the HD DVD camp and that MS also makes WIndows MEdia Center PCs. We touched on this in the dell/HP thread but you have to figure that at some point win MCE will support HD DVD natively, so basically every Win MCE sold will have an HD DVD drive in it. Also, i believe intel has consumer elctronics strategy with hardware as well for whole-house streaming technology with HD-DVD devices.

SO the HD-DVD install base will also be growing with MCE PCs and the Intel stuff (maybe someone else has more info on this?). Not to mention the HD-DVD 360s that could start being sold as well.

Point being they both have ways of growing their installed base besides stand alone players and yet i dont think that ANY of these is as critical as stand alone players (100% agreement with .Sis here). I imagine the attach rate for a stand alone player dwarfs that of any of these multi-function devices, maybe 10-20:1.

That means you would have to sell 20 million PS3s or HDDVD 360s to have the same impact as 1 million stand alone players. I'd be really interested to know what the actual attach rate numbers are but i bet theres a huge disparity. I think when you start talking in those terms (attach rate) it puts things in a better perspective of where this HD movie war will REALLY be won, stand alone players.J

Interesting, but will every MCE PC have HD-DVD drive?

 

[randycat99]

People are going to buy 10-20 HD-DVD's right at time of purchase of a $1000 HD-DVD player? Hmmm...

 

[ihamoitc2005]

Attach rate?

I imagine the attach rate for a stand alone player dwarfs that of any of these multi-function devices, maybe 10-20:1.
J

Who would buy stand-alone HD-DVD or Blu-Ray media player and why when full network supporting hifi media player with superior interface available at low cost?

Also, attach rate, ignoring even accuracy of number provided, is misapplied my friend. Consoles are part of home entertainment environment, not computing environment, so consumer impact is = any home entertainment device.

Media-Center PCs can also be part of home-entertainment environment very high cost limits market. This is why MS willing to spend tens of billions to get Xbox360 in every home. But lack of next-gen media format will be big problem in future unless upgraded version made available next year.

As for stand-alone player price, it will not come down until HD televisions are affordable to all and hence market for HD media format becomes larger, so more can be produced and sold. Until then market will have to be low-volume high margin.

Sony has big advantage of PS3 which they did not have with PS2. They will be able to get millions of next-gen media players in homes before either format standalone players widely available and hence determine next-gen media format. Nearly all consumers do not even know what blu-ray or HD-DVD is. As mainly consumer electronics company, this is big opportunity for them. This is why corporate restructuring centering around PS3.

HD-DVD standalone player manufacturers will not be able to counter this strategy by manufacturing and selling large quantities of HD-DVD players at low price because market for next-gen media format does not exist and will not exist until HD TVs are cheap. Therefore investment in high manufacturing volume capability is not good strategy.

 

[mckmas8808]

Point being they both have ways of growing their installed base besides stand alone players and yet i dont think that ANY of these is as critical as stand alone players (100% agreement with .Sis here). I imagine the attach rate for a stand alone player dwarfs that of any of these multi-function devices, maybe 10-20:1.

That means you would have to sell 20 million PS3s or HDDVD 360s to have the same impact as 1 million stand alone players. I'd be really interested to know what the actual attach rate numbers are but i bet theres a huge disparity. I think when you start talking in those terms (attach rate) it puts things in a better perspective of where this HD movie war will REALLY be won, stand alone players.

J

You really don't believe that stuff tell the truth. All I have to say is this.

We have been intrigued by the broad support of Blu-ray, especially the key advantage of including Blu-Ray in PlayStation 3," Paramount home entertainment prexy Thomas Lesinski said in a statement

 

[a688]

Who would buy stand-alone HD-DVD or Blu-Ray media player and why when full network supporting hifi media player with superior interface available at low cost?

Interface?? Low cost?? Did you copy that line from a brochure?

Also, attach rate, ignoring even accuracy of number provided, is misapplied my friend. Consoles are part of home entertainment environment, not computing environment, so consumer impact is = any home entertainment device.

Media-Center PCs can also be part of home-entertainment environment very high cost limits market. This is why MS willing to spend tens of billions to get Xbox360 in every home. But lack of next-gen media format will be big problem in future unless upgraded version made available next year.

MC PCs are for all intents and purposes part of the computing "environment" and home entertainment "environment". Also, nobody is going to cry if their console can't play the next gen movie format. Well some people might but they should have something better to do anyways.

Sony has big advantage of PS3 which they did not have with PS2. They will be able to get millions of next-gen media players in homes before either format standalone players widely available and hence determine next-gen media format. Nearly all consumers do not even know what blu-ray or HD-DVD is. As mainly consumer electronics company, this is big opportunity for them. This is why corporate restructuring centering around PS3.

So you're saying that since consumers don't know what blu-ray is, Sony is in the perfect position to release the PS3? Wouldn't Sony want consumers to know what Blu-Ray is? PS, Sony isn't centering around the PS3.

HD-DVD standalone player manufacturers will not be able to counter this strategy by manufacturing and selling large quantities of HD-DVD players at low price because market for next-gen media format does not exist and will not exist until HD TVs are cheap. Therefore investment in high manufacturing volume capability is not good strategy.

Same thing goes for Blu-Ray standalone player manufacturers.

 

[valioso]

Who would buy stand-alone HD-DVD or Blu-Ray media player and why when full network supporting hifi media player with superior interface available at low cost?

current consoles play dvd's, and most people that I know including myself have a stand alone dvd player just to play movies. I have never used any of my consoles to play a movie.

 

[London Geezer]

current consoles play dvd's, and most people that I know including myself have a stand alone dvd player just to play movies. I have never used any of my consoles to play a movie.

That's you. Lots of people did. Then eventually got a standalone player if they didn't have one.

 

[expletive]

You really don't believe that stuff tell the truth. All I have to say is this.

We have been intrigued by the broad support of Blu-ray, especially the key advantage of including Blu-Ray in PlayStation 3," Paramount home entertainment prexy Thomas Lesinski said in a statement.

Well i dont know what you would expect him to say, thats the whole blu-ray strategy-flood the market with devices to make it a de facto standard.

I htink people in this forum look at the PS3 or '360HD' as a no brainer to get into HD movies, and for us it probably is, but the reality is most consumers dont look it at that way.

I always judge the adaoption of CE technology when my parents call me and ask me about it. Once they got a DVD player i knew it had been successful, same with the DVR.

If the average consumer wants to buy a BD Rom/HD DVD player they are going to look for a player, not a game console. You also have to keep in mind that in a lot of homes the game console is on the kids' TV somewhere else in the house, not in the main family room. Theres a long list of reasons why the stand alone player is the key but most of us will just agree to disagree on it.

J

 

[expletive]

That's you. Lots of people did. Then eventually got a standalone player if they didn't have one.

I think thats a lot of people. Most of my friends who own game consoles do NOT use it to watch DVDs, they use it to play games and have a seperate DVD player. Not sure why things work out this way, ease of use, quality playback, game machine is not on the "main" TV. But i think more people Dont use their PS2 or XBOX as their main movie playback device than you think.

J

 

[London Geezer]

I think thats a lot of people. Most of my friends who own game consoles do NOT use it to watch DVDs, they use it to play games and have a seperate DVD player. Not sure why things work out this way, ease of use, quality playback, game machine is not on the "main" TV. But i think more people Dont use their PS2 or XBOX as their main movie playback device than you think.

J

Good god. I wrote (and you quoted):

That's you. Lots of people did.

Then eventually got a standalone player if they didn't have one.

Meaning there are a lot of people who at least DID use it as a DVD player at one point. Today i don't expect many people to use it as a DVD player.

 

[expletive]

"Who would buy stand-alone HD-DVD or Blu-Ray media player and why when full network supporting hifi media player with superior interface available at low cost?"

They announced the price of the PS3?

"Also, attach rate, ignoring even accuracy of number provided, is misapplied my friend. Consoles are part of home entertainment environment, not computing environment, so consumer impact is = any home entertainment device."

I dont see what your point is. Movies getting sold will declare the winner, if there is one.

"Media-Center PCs can also be part of home-entertainment environment very high cost limits market. This is why MS willing to spend tens of billions to get Xbox360 in every home. But lack of next-gen media format will be big problem in future unless upgraded version made available next year."

In spite of their cost, tons of PCs get sold in the US every year. The number of those being Win MCE versions is approaching 50%. APparently the 360 will be able to stream media from a MCE pc in your house so while the 360 can be its own 'media center' theres a value-add proposition for people with Win MCE, they can stream music, photos, and programs recorded off TV to any 360, thats cool.

"As for stand-alone player price, it will not come down until HD televisions are affordable to all and hence market for HD media format becomes larger, so more can be produced and sold. Until then market will have to be low-volume high margin.

Sony has big advantage of PS3 which they did not have with PS2. They will be able to get millions of next-gen media players in homes before either format standalone players widely available and hence determine next-gen media format. Nearly all consumers do not even know what blu-ray or HD-DVD is. As mainly consumer electronics company, this is big opportunity for them. This is why corporate restructuring centering around PS3."

Thats a big assumption that there will be a disparate isntall base of BR compared to HD-DVD. I think we need to wait a 18 months and see what MS has done with MCE and the 360 in terms of HD-DVD, and intel with their plans before we assume this. These are all huge companies and they will use their leverage to support their format.

J

 

[expletive]

Good god. I wrote (and you quoted):



Meaning there are a lot of people who at least DID use it as a DVD player at one point. Today i don't expect many people to use it as a DVD player.

Sorry only 9am here and havent finished my coffee yet.

I inferred from your statement that game consoles were partially responsible for the success of DVD. If that is your supposition, i'm not sure i agree wiht that.

J

 

[London Geezer]

Sorry only 9am here and havent finished my coffee yet.

I inferred from your statement that game consoles were partially responsible for the success of DVD. If that is your supposition, i'm not sure i agree wiht that.

J

Well it's undeniable that there was a spike in DVD sales figures straight after PS2 release.

The "success" of DVD however is more to be attributed to cheapo 40 quid DVD players from firms calling themselves "Fony" or "Ranasonic" that you can buy in the corner shop downstairs.

 

[expletive]

People are going to buy 10-20 HD-DVD's right at time of purchase of a $1000 HD-DVD player? Hmmm...

No i dont htink so, and apologies if attach rate means 'at time of purchase' since it seems i used liberally. The point being that say, over the first year, the stand alone player buyer who is committed to the technology of HD movies, will buy a LOT more of them then console owners.

I do believe there will be console owners that buy HD movies, but i think the # of them that buy the same amount as the stand alone player owner will be very small. Plus you have to average in those that will by NO hd movies.

And again this applies to all formats. I dont think the 360 putting an HD DVD drive in there gives that format any significant advantage either.

J

 

[expletive]

Well it's undeniable that there was a spike in DVD sales figures straight after PS2 release.

The "success" of DVD however is more to be attributed to cheapo 40 quid DVD players from firms calling themselves "Fony" or "Ranasonic" that you can buy in the corner shop downstairs.

Agreed on commoditization.

Still not convinced that spike in DVD sales wasnt due in the industry anyway but not discounting it either.

J

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Why would owners of a new DVD player in PS2 not buy DVDs? 'Hey, look. I've bought this console that plays DVDs but I'm not going to buy any DVDs until I get a standalon DVD player. I'm gonna keep buying crappy VHS until then.' I think not. And I've yet to meet a gamer who doesn't like watching at least some sorts of movies who wouldn't buy a suitable disc if their console was a player. 20 million consoles means 20 million more film buyers then without, just as 250,000 PSPs has seen >100,000 UMD movies sold in the UK.

 

[expletive]

Why would owners of a new DVD player in PS2 not buy DVDs? 'Hey, look. I've bought this console that plays DVDs but I'm not going to buy any DVDs until I get a standalon DVD player. I'm gonna keep buying crappy VHS until then.' I think not. And I've yet to meet a gamer who doesn't like watching at least some sorts of movies who wouldn't buy a suitable disc if their console was a player. 20 million consoles means 20 million more film buyers then without, just as 250,000 PSPs has seen >100,000 UMD movies sold in the UK.

Since we're really talking about HD movie adoption, let me put it in this gen context.

I agree that if someone owns a PS3, and has the PS3 on the same display they use for watching movies with the family/significant other, and this person buys movies instead of renting them, and the BR version of the movie they want to watch is available, they will buy it instead of a the DVD.

J