PS3 Launch Outsells Xbox 360 Launch?*

[Natoma]

Really? Most of my friends are into the typical 'guy' genres, shooters, racers, sports games and sandbox games like GTA.

My only point in stating what I did is that trying to define what the "typical gamer/majority of gaming market" is, is a fruitless endeavor. Everyone has their friends who define their "typical/majority". See what I mean?

In the end, sales is what counts. And right now, those "atypical" games are selling very well, and have been reviewed very well.

Anyways, I posted this in the PS3 sales thread, but it applies here as well, Arstechnica took a look around and demand for PS3 seems to be drying up in a huge way:

It appears PS3 supply is already beginning to outstrip demand:



http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20070108-8574.html

*cough*

http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showthread.php?p=905559#post905559

 

[mrcorbo]

On the other hand, someone who just bought an Enzo would not be worried about spending money on fuel. While a Kia driver is likely on a tight budget.

And based on www.fueleconomy.gov:
Ferrari Enzo: City 8, Highway 12, Annual Fuel Cost: $4250
Kia Rio: City 29, Highway 38, Annual Fuel Cost $1094

And those numbers are based on the premise that you are going to be putting the same piss into your Ferrari as your Kia. Which of course no sane person would do - you're going to buy the expensive premium stuff for the Ferrari.

So all things considered, you could still make a good bit of money just selling fuel to that one Enzo owner. It's not going to be the same margins, but a business model based on fule for th high end stuff is certainly viable. There is room for both products.

Do you realize that what you are suggesting here is that the alternative for developers given a smaller potential market is just to make games with less (though higher quality) content so that consumers will be forced to buy games more often? This added to the fact that they will be paying more per game?

Is that what you really mean to say?

 

[22psi]

I am so lost in this thread, I thought for a second there I was on the edmunds.com forum

 

[patsu]

good catch, I was too brief for my own good. to expand....

features + mind share + software + hardware + services + *in the sweetspot Price-RANGE* is King.

So if Sony cannot get their package in the mass market Price-range in a reasonable time frame, it COULD be a problem since the competition will now be able to offer some (all?) of those other +'s within that price range.

It is not that simple. Here's another (simplified) way to look at it:

First, the vendor has to decide which segment to target. Wii targets the layman, not just core gamers. So it has a much larger base to pull from. Without this strategic marketing focus, all the points you mentioned may not add up to Wii. PS3 and Xbox 360 will sell less compared to Wii as long as Wii can appeal to this larger crowd.

Second, Nintendo has successfully communicated the killer simplicity + fun factors to these people in mere seconds. It's instant gratification. Mii and Wii Sports come to mind (Zelda is for gamers). Once the draw is effective, the huge base in the first point will weigh in immediately. Both 360 and PS3 appeal via pure visuals and feature list which are less effective (Sony, where in the world is your EyeToy software ?). Worsestill, a HDTV is required for best experience.

Third is the price. If you get the first 2 wrong, people may not even ask for the price.
Another company that does this very well is Apple. BTW, they just launched a US$299 AppleTV box (no contracts !), and a US$499/$599 iPhone (with 2 year contracts). That iPhone makes my PS3 feels inexpensive, but it's sexy definitely!

Nintendo's model is powerful because it is easy to understand and simple.

As for Sony and Xbox 360, it's the standard multi-phase adoption cycle model (Early adoptor, Laggard stuff). They needed to do this because HD is not a mainstream behaviour -- whereas everyone understand what "fun" and "easy" is in Nintendo's case. So they just hit the road and run.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

I think "value" is king and value isn't always static amongst consoles at any one price point. One person might be willing to spend $600.00 for the PS3 but will never buy a Wii regardless of price. But you might have another person who is willing to buy the 360 at $400.00 but won't consider a PS3 even at a $200 price point. Futhermore, you might have a person who will buy the first console that hits $150.00. It all depends how much an individual values any one of the consoles that determines what console is bought and at what price point.

Value accounts for demand at any given price point for any given console.

This is a very good post. I agree completely. Value is king. Determining aggregate value is the tough part. How many consumers consider the PS3 to be worth $600? How many consider the X360 to be worth $400? The Wii $250? It's all very interesting...

 

[liolio]

I was responding to a delete post, it doesn't make sense now.
If some mod have some time he can delete this useless post, for english sake lol

 

[Natoma]

Do you guys mind keeping your religious-politics-forum-induced rivalry, conflict and negativity outside this forum? Yes i'm talking to you two, you know who you are.

Just go back to your Iraq/Abortion/Global Warming/Stem Cell/Ethics discussions, will ya?

It's so much nicer in here though

 

[Natoma]

Mod vengeance!

And I thought I had some damn good posts too.

 

[Paul_G]

Mod vengeance!

And I thought I had some damn good posts too.

Just a bit! I was like "where the hell did most of page 6 go??" and you did indeed have some good posts, though to give Powder his dues, he made some valid points too. Maybe just got slightly too heated though...

Anyway, on topic, whatever that is since we seem to have strayed into a debate about what is mainstream, I think if LB is correct (and lets face it, he usually is) then it's yet another sign of Sony's struggle at the moment, to go from 4m to 2m to 1m then pat themselves on the back about that as if it was only ever going to be 1m is pretty poor, but to downplay their own valid success is terrible if true.

Moving on from that, if they really have sold 1m up to end of 2006, and presumably about 500K in Japan, how do they plan on selling another 4.5m in 3 months?? Is this even possible?

 

[compres]

Mod vengeance!

And I thought I had some damn good posts too.

LOL I knew mine deserved to be deleted, even though I was really laughing here. Just so much hate on some posts LOL.

 

[compres]

Just a bit! I was like "where the hell did most of page 6 go??" and you did indeed have some good posts, though to give Powder his dues, he made some valid points too. Maybe just got slightly too heated though...

Anyway, on topic, whatever that is since we seem to have strayed into a debate about what is mainstream, I think if LB is correct (and lets face it, he usually is) then it's yet another sign of Sony's struggle at the moment, to go from 4m to 2m to 1m then pat themselves on the back about that as if it was only ever going to be 1m is pretty poor, but to downplay their own valid success is terrible if true.

Moving on from that, if they really have sold 1m up to end of 2006, and presumably about 500K in Japan, how do they plan on selling another 4.5m in 3 months?? Is this even possible?

Unless they lower the price, I don't think it is in sony's best interest to ship that many ps3s unless they don't care about all this negative PR about the stockpiling in stores. Or do you think they can really sell 6M in about 3 months or so?

 

[patsu]

Really? Most of my friends are into the typical 'guy' genres, shooters, racers, sports games and sandbox games like GTA.

Anyways, I posted this in the PS3 sales thread, but it applies here as well, Arstechnica took a look around and demand for PS3 seems to be drying up in a huge way:

It appears PS3 supply is already beginning to outstrip demand:



http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20070108-8574.html

Yes and no. The article is only partially accurate. This statement doesn't convey the truth:
"The results are unambiguous: the PlayStation 3 is in stock, almost everywhere"

Using 1 inventory snapshot to infer sales through is also flawed (like using 1 distance point to judge speed/velocity). The interviewees' comments are interesting but they are just opinions.

This is the route I took today (over 109 miles): http://img383.imageshack.us/img383/9721/searchbb0.jpg

I went to Bay Area for some meetings, and visited:
* 3 Targets (Livermore, Fremont, San Mateo)
* 2 BestBuys (Mountain View and San Carlos)
* 1 Circuit City (Fremont)
* 2 Fry's (Fremont and Palo Alto)
* 1 Gamestop (Milpitas)

Target in Livermore: PS3 (out-of-stock), Xbox 360 (8)
Target in San Mateo: PS3 (out-of-stock), Xbox 360 (12)
Target in Fremont: PS3 (out-of-stock), Xbox 360 (4)
Fry's in Fremont: PS3 (30, all locked up in the back office, they received 100 last Friday. The 100-unit-shipment is consistent with a GAF post for another Fry's location), Xbox 360 (231. Guy commented that it will take a while to clear)
Circuit City in Fremont: PS3 (out-of-stock), Xbox 360 (30)
Gamestop in Milpitas: PS3 (1, they received 2 yesterday. He saved this one for someone), Xbox 360 (plenty, he wouldn't say)
BestBuy in Mountain View: PS3 (out-of-stock), Xbox 360 (11)
Fry's in Mountain View: PS3 (12, all locked up in the back, they received 1 shipment last week, and another 2 weeks ago; the guy forgot how many were shipped to them but thinks that all 12 will be gone by end of the week), Xbox 360 (At least 196 -- on the floor)
BestBuy in San Carlos: PS3 (out-of-stock), Xbox 360 (At least 119 -- on the floor)

Let's wait for the numbers for subsequent months.

Mythos I assume you have found a PS3 and I don't have to get it for you (I'm flying out in 48 hours). If not, just go to Fry's to get one (or order online).

EDIT: I missed the store hour for the BestBuy in Dublin, but from previous run... it should be stocked out too.

 

[inefficient]

Do you realize that what you are suggesting here is that the alternative for developers given a smaller potential market is just to make games with less (though higher quality) content so that consumers will be forced to buy games more often? This added to the fact that they will be paying more per game?

Is that what you really mean to say?

No. Don't read too much into it. The original "car comparison" Acert93 made was 2 extreme ends of a spectrum. So it's relevance is slightly obscured. I was just trying to point out that there is a viable market for both premium cars makers and premium fuel makers. You don't need a huge install base to be viable or attract 3rd parties.


Just look at PC gaming. The cost of entry is very high compared to consoles, and install base of gaming spec PCs also relatively low. And of course piracy is always taking away your sales. Yet it's still not only a viable platform, but PCs received a lot of high quality innovative titles over the years. It has drawn high quality developers who were drawn to it for reasons other than install base size.

I would say the best reason to chose a platform is because it meets your requirments for the type of experience you want to create. Developers who are driven by the desire to create "the kinds of games they want to play" and not by potential profits usually make better games anyway. If you chose a platform based on install base you are already off to a bad start.

A good reasons to choose Wii would be because you have a creative idea that would be best implemented or can only really be implemented with the Wii controler. And it is an idea that would not really improve much in HD.

A good reason to choose the PS3 would because your vision would be best realized on a HD platform and you specifically had a pet idea for where to use all that Cell power. And maybe BD roominess factors into your decision.

A good reason to choose 360 would be because you want to create next gen HD game with a coherent online community - and your game must have rumble.

Any creative direction that start off with "how can we maximize profits" is doomed to result in mediocrity as far as I am concerned.

 

[patsu]

Unless they lower the price, I don't think it is in sony's best interest to ship that many ps3s unless they don't care about all this negative PR about the stockpiling in stores. Or do you think they can really sell 6M in about 3 months or so?

6M worldwide ? I have no idea (actually I don't care). But...

With or without publicists' influence, the media is currently trying to establish a Conventional Wisdom:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conventional_wisdom (commonly referred to as "paint a story", but it's actually more powerful than that).

Conventional Wisdoms stop people from thinking by quickly associating "talking points" with a subject: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talking_point

These are all PR stuff. I came to B3D because I find it refreshing and factual. Hope to keep it that way.

 

[inefficient]

This is the route I took today (over 109 miles): http://img383.imageshack.us/img383/9721/searchbb0.jpg

I went to Bay Area for some meetings, and visited:
* 3 Targets (Livermore, Fremont, San Mateo)
* 2 BestBuys (Mountain View and San Carlos)
* 1 Circuit City (Fremont)
* 2 Fry's (Fremont and Palo Alto)
* 1 Gamestop (Great Mall)

A post that deserves rep if there ever was one. Just for doing 109m of leg work before contributing.

 

[assen]

I would say the best reason to chose a platform is because it meets your requirments for the type of experience you want to create. Developers who are driven by the desire to create "the kinds of games they want to play" and not by potential profits usually make better games anyway. If you chose a platform based on install base you are already off to a bad start.

If you ignore install base, you'd better like ramen.

You're making it sound as if all possible "creative" ideas are necessarily a good fit for exactly one platform.

 

[inefficient]

If you ignore install base, you'd better like ramen.

You're making it sound as if all possible "creative" ideas are necessarily a good fit for exactly one platform.

Why I do like ramen - just not necessarily the kind the comes in a cup.

Between PS3 and 360 I won't go into because the differences for the immediate future won't be obvious and many creative ideas could be a good fit for both or either.

But between Wii and PS3/360? You need a pretty good reason to pick one over the other as you are going to make a very different game. And games will be made for the Wii even if it only reaches a GC size install base just because of it's unique controler. And visa versa if the Wii is the largest platform, people will still make PS3/360 games because the expereince they offer is so entirely different.

 

[assen]

Why I do like ramen - just not necessarily the kind the comes in a cup.

Between PS3 and 360 I won't go into because the differences for the immediate future won't be obvious and many creative ideas could be a good fit for both or either.

But between Wii and PS3/360? You need a pretty good reason to pick one over the other as you are going to make a very different game. And games will be made for the Wii even if it only reaches a GC size install base just because of it's unique controler. And visa versa if the Wii is the largest platform, people will still make PS3/360 games because the expereince they offer is so entirely different.

Yep, now I agree with you. Say, 10% of the possible game concepts are a good fit for Wii, 88% are a good fit for both PS3 and Xbox 360, and 2% are a good fit for the PS3 only (you can afford to fill a BD with assets, or you *need* (as opposed to "can use") streaming/background processing CPU power. Where the 10%, 88% and 2% numbers are completely arbitrary, don't bicker about them

 

[Tap In]

I went to Bay Area for some meetings, and visited:
* 3 Targets (Livermore, Fremont, San Mateo)
* 2 BestBuys (Mountain View and San Carlos)
* 1 Circuit City (Fremont)
* 2 Fry's (Fremont and Palo Alto)
* 1 Gamestop (Great Mall)

Target in Livermore: PS3 (out-of-stock), Xbox 360 (8)
Target in San Mateo: PS3 (out-of-stock), Xbox 360 (12)
Target in Fremont: PS3 (out-of-stock), Xbox 360 (4)
Fry's in Fremont: PS3 (30, all locked up in the back office, they received 100 last Friday. The 100-unit-shipment is consistent with a GAF post for another Fry's location), Xbox 360 (231. Guy commented that it will take a while to clear)
Circuit City in Fremont: PS3 (out-of-stock), Xbox 360 (30)
Gamestop in Milpitas: PS3 (1, they received 2 yesterday. He saved this one for someone), Xbox 360 (plenty, he wouldn't say)
BestBuy in Mountain View: PS3 (out-of-stock), Xbox 360 (11)
Fry's in Mountain View: PS3 (12, all locked up in the back, they received 1 shipment last week, and another 2 weeks ago; the guy forgot how many were shipped to them but thinks that all 12 will be gone by end of the week), Xbox 360 (At least 196 -- on the floor)
BestBuy in San Carlos: PS3 (out-of-stock), Xbox 360 (At least 119 -- on the floor)

ok although I read the part about you being "in the area", that's still a little obsessive.

it's not THAT important unless your business IS working within these stores anyway?

 

[patsu]

ok although I read the part about you being "in the area", that's still a little obsessive.

It's not THAT important unless your business IS working within these stores anyway?

Ha ha. Yesterday was the first time-out I get after several weeks of hardwork. I'm relatively free today too before flying off. When you have worked in startup environments for a good several years (sometimes self-funded), you may need to do everything yourself. So I take a keen interest in what companies are up to lately.

I'm not in the industry and in no way affiliated with MS or Sony. Never worked for them too. I just don't like being used by the media and the publicists. Worse if they try to appear to be objective or authoritative when they are not. The last time this happens in a major way, we elected Bush and went to war with Iraq.

As for channel data, I spent 2-3 years of my life collecting and analyzing them for a few companies. So generally, I'm familiar with the challenges, pitfalls, process and VooDoo/methodology (It takes some time to do). This does not mean Sony is breaking world records too, we just don't have enough data to conclude anything yet.

Take care and enjoy the oasis that is B3D, for now anyway.