JC Keynote talks consoles

EpicZero said:
Ok, thank you Acert. But one more question would be, why does Carmack seem to differ with Rein/Sweeney?

Epic is making PS3 middleware, i.e. LOTS of money ;) Difficult or not, it is to their advantage to make it work, and make it work right. If UE3 runs well on PS3 that means more devs look at their software (re: almost EVERYONE expects the PS3 to be the world wide market leader in 2011) AND it facillitates cross platforming, which is another huge "perk" for devs to use their software. And if they can work out the kinks for devs and allow them to tap the power of the system, then it is worth it to them. They also are very close with NV.

id is porting their game from the PC. They do not have as much incentive to offset the pain. Epic has close to a dozen titles using UE3 + their own titles. As Todd noted, there is enough power in the PS3 to do what they want so that offsets the "pain in the arse" factor, not to mention the large install base projections.

Basically you have id porting 1 title to both platforms compared to Epic that will have 3 or 4 of their own titles + dozens of third party titles. The return on time investment is clearly in Epic's favor. UE3 was designed from the ground up to be a robust engine flexible enough to be used by 3rd party devs. As JC noted at last years QuakeCon id makes engines that first and foremost meet their needs. So while Epic may spend a lot of time on the tools end and documentation id is focusing more on their specific title.

Epic is also bigger than id. Epic has some pretty good staff + they just got Tim Johnson aboard. id has intentionally remained smaller. JC is a genius at what he does, but it is becoming more and more clear that to make AAA games on time you need bigger staff. That is hard.
 
EpicZero said:
Ok, thank you Acert. But one more question would be, why does Carmack seem to differ with Rein/Sweeney?

They're different people? Everyone has a different outlook.

I'm not sure how different they really are though. Their approach to the console technology seems to be quite similar, given Carmack's comments about how they were using the multiple cores. I think Carmack may just be more "ease"-sensitive than Sweeney, perhaps, maybe because he has a keener interest in development-management, where easier = good. The smaller team point mentioned by Acert may also be relevant here.
 
Gabrobot said:
Well that's what's great about scripted AI...there's a lot of stuff that can be improved and added. You could set up a pretty advanced system where there are tons of context based scripted actions (like interacting with the environment, i.e. shooting through glass, knocking down doors, ect.) combined with some extra programming to mix up their strategies a bit and even some basic learning, and things would be pretty impressive. The thing is you can pour tons of effort into scripted AI and have things turn out beautifully, plus you still have some control over how things happen. The quality really just has to do with how much you want to put into it (so in Doom 3's case, they just didn't do a lot with the AI). :)

A long as AI gives me a constant challange, not because they need more shots to be killed, but because it uses a new tatic, I dont care who it is done, but if it can be done that way it should be easier to devolop.

I really have hope that in this next gen AI gets a big boost which it deserves.
 
One thing that missed is that JC is he more vocal and reported than most...

He speaks his mind and you hear about it. Doesn't mean his completely right everytime but also doesn't mean he's wrong. Your just more likely to hear his views than the rest of us.

Everybody knows X360 and PS3 are a bit of a pain in the arse cos of the multi-core. How on earth anybody can argue, that because John says just that he lost it, is beyond me.
 
As Deano say John speaks his mind, he's in a different position than most developers. His statements are also MASSIVELY overanalysed, people read in things that he never intended.

Although I might not personally agree with everything he says, and I have very different views on game design and graphics engine design. He's a VERY smart guy and the contents of this keynote are completly inline with reality. Just because you may not agree with his views doesn't mean he's somehow lost it.
 
Is there any chance that the next-next gen consoles (XB3, PS4, which MS and Sony have to be at least thinking about now since consoles take 3 to 5 years to develop) might go in the opposite direction, by not having more cores than X360 and PS3, instead having very advanced and feature rich single core or duel core, like we see with Intel and AMD ?

on second thought, no, I don't think that will happen. I think we will see at least a few more cores (2x more than what Xenon and CELL have) but smarter, more capable ones. I just remembered Intel's 'Platform 2015' documents. they are going for dozens or even hundreds of cores and lots of cache which will account for multi billions of transistors. I believe the idea is to have a few very powerful central cores, many smaller multi purpose cores, and a few specaliszed cores (graphics). that's Intel's publically announced course for the next 10 years.

that's also how I see next-next generation console CPUs going, but obviously more specialled towards gaming and FP performance.
 
Megadrive i'd be very suprised if we don't see a cell chip in the ps4 . Sony has invested so much in this chip i don't see them droping it .


For ps4 i would say most likely 2 1x8 cells at 5ghz or perhaps a 2x16 at 5ghz and a nvidia part from 2010 .

For the x360 i would think they would just go with a multicore cpu again but perhaps add in a ppu for added power , a new ati graphics chip and mabye dedicated sound with its own memory pool .
 
Megadrive1988 said:
Is there any chance that the next-next gen consoles (XB3, PS4, which MS and Sony have to be at least thinking about now since consoles take 3 to 5 years to develop) might go in the opposite direction, by not having more cores than X360 and PS3, instead having very advanced and feature rich single core or duel core, like we see with Intel and AMD ?
By ~2010 Intel and AMD will surely already have multicores with more than 4 cores on the market.
 
John Carmack has to do more positive talking. Give people like me a reason to buy a next-gen system. It seemed like 70% of his speech was negative regarding the next-gen systems. John needs to tell me how him and his team will overcome the problems that he will face. Not just complain all the time.

I just think his thoughts on physics and A.I. are just off. And wasn't Doom 3 suffered due to the A.I. I would have liked Doom 3 having more of a HL2 physics based engine. A.I. as smart as Band of Brothers 2 would have been nice too.

Put it this way if I were to buy an xbox360 I sure wouldn't buy Quake 4. From his speech he doesn't give me enough hope. When Hideo talks he gives me a vision. When guys from Epic talk they give me a vision. Carmack is not giving me a vision.

GIVE ME SOME HOPE!!!
 
DeanoC said:
One thing that missed is that JC is he more vocal and reported than most...

He speaks his mind and you hear about it. Doesn't mean his completely right everytime but also doesn't mean he's wrong. Your just more likely to hear his views than the rest of us.

Everybody knows X360 and PS3 are a bit of a pain in the arse cos of the multi-core. How on earth anybody can argue, that because John says just that he lost it, is beyond me.

I would like to say this. You DeanoC give people like me and others of plenty of other boards hope. John isn't right now. Your popularity has risen by 2000%. And you having always had great things about next-gen systems, but you find a way to give us hope.
 
mckmas8808 said:
I would like to say this. You DeanoC give people like me and others of plenty of other boards hope. John isn't right now. Your popularity has risen by 2000%. And you having always had great things about next-gen systems, but you find a way to give us hope.


Hope about what ? From what I see carmack claiming is that you will get top of the line 2005 pc performance out of these next gen consoles . Considering top of the line pc performance is in the thousands of dollars that is a very very good deal .
 
jvd said:
Hope about what ? From what I see carmack claiming is that you will get top of the line 2005 pc performance out of these next gen consoles . Considering top of the line pc performance is in the thousands of dollars that is a very very good deal .

MAN that's not hope that's a failure. If I wanted top of the line 2005 PC performance I would buy a supped up PC. I want something WAAAY better. I want games that will out do games like F.E.A.R. I want games like RE5 to crush it. Half-Life 2 should be surpassed within the first year with the next-gen systems.

Why are you so satisfied with todays game on tomorrow's consoles jvd?
 
mckmas8808 said:
MAN that's not hope that's a failure. If I wanted top of the line 2005 PC performance I would buy a supped up PC. I want something WAAAY better. I want games that will out do games like F.E.A.R. I want games like RE5 to crush it. Half-Life 2 should be surpassed within the first year with the next-gen systems.

Why are you so satisfied with todays game on tomorrow's consoles jvd?

Well Half Life 2 is hardly a top looking game.

Now, if all first gen games on next gen consoles look like FEAR on maximum settings (with obvious reductions in textures, RAM permitting) i'll be happy. Then we'll see what happens.
 
mckmas8808 said:
MAN that's not hope that's a failure. If I wanted top of the line 2005 PC performance I would buy a supped up PC. I want something WAAAY better. I want games that will out do games like F.E.A.R. I want games like RE5 to crush it. Half-Life 2 should be surpassed within the first year with the next-gen systems.

Why are you so satisfied with todays game on tomorrow's consoles jvd?

Then you are fooling yourself . For 300-400$ your getting 3k pc perfomance mabye even slightly greater .


Why am I satisfied ? Because it has 2005 pc power and costs me 300$ . It has easy online gaming for my friends , i don't have to worry about hardware issues , drivers or upgrades to it over the course of 5 years .

That is what makes it exciting
 
mckmas8808 said:
John Carmack has to do more positive talking. Give people like me a reason to buy a next-gen system. It seemed like 70% of his speech was negative regarding the next-gen systems. John needs to tell me how him and his team will overcome the problems that he will face. Not just complain all the time.

He is not complaining as much about the PC. Much like the devs that talked to Anad I think his advice would be, "If you want the best in gaming, get a PC". His comments, in his opinion, are a response to the tidal wave of, "The Next Gen Consoles kill the PC!!!11" hype.

In his opinion the power of the next gen consoles have been over hyped in relation to reality.

And while an 3800+ Anthlon 64 may not have a sexy performance number like "200 GLFOPs" it is indeed a very easy to work with processor that is very effecient and powerful. John, primarily a PC dev, looks at the "man hours" it takes to do something on the PC and cries when he compares it to the next gen consoles.

But his comments are not all negative. He had some positive things to say about the 360 and the dev tools for it.

It all depends on where you are coming from. If you are locked into 1 console or do not PC games some of what he said is irritating. As a PC and console gamer I can appreciate his perspective. It wont be everyones perspective, but surely John is a very important figure in the gaming world. His game alone sold a ton of GF cards.

And wasn't Doom 3 suffered due to the A.I. I would have liked Doom 3 having more of a HL2 physics based engine.

Doom 3 did not suffer. It sold well--on the PC and Xbox. The "bad" reviews did not stop fans from liking it.

While some hard core gamers disliked it, you are talking about the cream of the crop, the top 10%, of hardcore gamers.

But IMO D3 was NOT made for them. D3 was made for those of us who played the original. I have never been a Doom fan, but my dad had all but given up on FPS because they are too complicated. He LOVED D3. Why? Fun "point and kill". It was dark, scary, and fast paced and set in the nostalgic Doom universe.

You cannot make everyone happy with every game. Hardcore gamers mistook what D3 was. D3 was for Doom fans.

And while it alienated a lot of hard core gamers, I would be willing to bet it appealed to a LOT of casual gamers who would have been intimidated by a more complex FPS.

I would like to say this. You DeanoC give people like me and others of plenty of other boards hope. John isn't right now. Your popularity has risen by 2000%. And you having always had great things about next-gen systems, but you find a way to give us hope.

Does this need to be reworded? I think you are trying to say something different than the garbled words... after you edit I will respond to that :D
 
jvd said:
Hope about what ? From what I see carmack claiming is that you will get top of the line 2005 pc performance out of these next gen consoles . Considering top of the line pc performance is in the thousands of dollars that is a very very good deal .
Whatever JC's engines will produce on consols, it will be superseded by engines from other console centric devhouses.
And that, before, at the same time and after JC's new engine is released on the console platforms.

I won't even be surprised if the id's new engine can not even top the UE3.0 on consoles.

id is just too small of a developer, with regards to today's needs for the developement of a viable middleware platform. I think that even NDL (Gamebryo) are way bigger than id...

By the way, I still don't understand why people still listen to John Carmack's opinion about the industry when his last move was clearly a, costly, mistake (The Doom 3 engine).

With the Q3 Engine, id had the lion's share of the market, with their next move, the D3 Engine, they lost everything, thanks to some stupid design decisions, such as the emphasize on CPU operations and the lack of fragment ops (And yes, of course, that's my opinion, before you start asking).

Actually if Doom 3 has been released end 2002 early 2003, the story may have been completly different. But then again, id wanted to remain a small team...

Acert93 said:
Epic is making PS3 middleware, i.e. LOTS of money ;)
id is also working on making PS3/X360 middleware.

It's just that Epic reps are more diplomatic and have a way better sense of business ethics. JC's anti-climatic comments only brings bad PR to these new consoles. Will that please SCEI and MS management? I guess not.
Will publishers be interested in id's technology if the first echoes, from the horse's mouth, are negatives? Nope. Well, at least the publishers that didn't already signs huge contracts, spanning on multiple games, with Epic and it's UE3....

Todd Hollenshead should really tell JC to shut up, they're virtually burning bridges with thoses down-to-earth public comments about the new consoles. id is already in a bad shape for this coming generation, as is.

He's honest, that's true, and that's great in a certain a sense, but honesty never sold anything.
 
I won't even be surprised if the id's new engine can not even top the UE3.0 on consoles.
I disagree . his next engine will have just gone into development . Unreal 3 has been in development for awhile . I'm sure carmack and pull off some really nice things esp when he knows the exact specs of each machine
 
Vysez said:
It's just that Epic reps are more diplomatic and have a way better sense of business ethics.

Since when has voicing your opinion, in this case giving some "reservations" concerning the next gen hype about the PS3/360 stomping on the PC, been bad business ethics? 'Business' sense possibly, but not ethics.

JC is a programmer/developer and has concerns about the next gen hardware. He, unlike you are I, is working on the stuff. Unlike MANY bottom feeding devs JC and id is at the top. He has the freedom to speak his mind without much of a backlash. That does not mean he has a lack of business ethics. It means he, in his opinion, thinks something is better (like the PC) or that MS/Sony made a mistake (i.e. multicore too soon). I do not agree necessarily, but there is nothing lacking in him speaking his mind.

Besides the point of JC having the freedome to voice his opinion, Epic being "diplomatic" is a financial one. Epic's engine/middleware is ready NOW. They have over a half dozen devs paying them $1M a pop for their engine. They have no less than 2 games heading to the shelves in 2006 that they need to hype as "the best graphically" because honestly Epic is more known for quality graphics than their gameplay (with a few exceptions). Epic also needs to be more diplomatic because they have been granted favorable status by Sony (e.g. getting the PS3 dev kit early before E3) and MS (MS publishes their games)!!

The fact JC has made negative comments--at possible expense of HIS company--bears more weight than those being diplomatic.

Of course the car salesman who makes a commission on a sale is going to say good thing. It says a lot about someone if they say something negative that can hurt their profits.

JC's anti-climatic comments only brings bad PR to these new consoles. Will that please SCEI and MS management? I guess not.

Who cares if it is bad press for the new consoles IF it is true for him? If the machines suck for what he is doing do you expect him to say, "Well, they are the best machines every... true, they do not fit our games well and they are a complete pain in the butt and are gonna make our dev budget explode and cause more delays, but all in all they are great for id!"

Remember, id is not Epic, EA, Square-Enix, or any of these other huge HUGE dev houses. They are a smaller focused team. The types of teams (not necessarily id recently) that typically turn out neat/unique games. Making development hard for the small guys, like the ids, is a bad thing.

It is all perspective.

If MS and Sony do not like it they can talk to him about it. As other Devs noted, they do not ALWAYS agree with John, but much of the content of his address was accurate.

I am not sure why we are getting upset. If MS and Sony have problems with what he has said they can direct their attention to it. If they really dislike it they can take their dev kits away not not give him permission to publish on their platform.

But overall the man has a right to give his opinion on the subject. And as one of the most important people in the industry I think it is quite bias of us to just dismiss what he is saying. Unlike Anand's "they are complete trash" article, John has both good and bad to say.

His perspective, as a medium sized PC-focused dev with important franchises, is a relevant one. Not the most important or dominant, but still worth while.

Will publishers be interested in id's technology if the first echoes, from the horse's mouth, are negatives? Nope. Well, at least the publishers that didn't already signs huge contracts, spanning on multiple games, with Epic and it's UE3....

Or the reverse.

Devs see how hard it is, and John says, "Yep!! It is hard! We had some of the same issues but worked around them. Our middleware takes the sting out of it, so sign here on the dotted line."

Voicing concerns over design (MS/Sony's multicore CPUs) and tools (Sony) does not mean Devs automatically think, "He is an idiot".

As for the engines, Epic WILL sell more UE3 engines. Why?

#1. JC creates engines to meet the needs of his games. Epic set out to create tools that could be leveraged to third parties.

#2. Epic is bigger and has the explicit goal of creating user friendly tools to enhance UE3 sales. id is smaller and more focused on creating their own games than creating engines for 3rd parties.

Todd Hollenshead should really tell JC to shut up, they're virtually burning bridges with thoses down-to-earth public comments about the new consoles.

What bridges? A fee overzealous fans of consoles? The games will determine what sells, and id's record is stellar.

Also, there is the little thing known as the PC... id seems to sell well there ;) (D3 did really well on the Xbox though)

If I was Todd, I would not tell John squat. John has been a major force behind id since its beginnings. John's intuition has got them where they are today, I would say in Todd's shoes I would try to understand how John feels and then make the right decision for id--and John being a big part of id, I would take what he says VERY seriously.

id is already in a bad shape for this coming generation, as is.

Say what? Quake 4 has a lot of advertising and hype right now and seems to have more Q3 style MP. Prey looks great and a lot of fun. ET: QuakeWars appears to be on the right track and if it has good gameplay could be a KILLER app.

He also has a retrofit of the engine shaping up for 2006/2007. 3 good games in fall 2005/early fall 2006, a new games in late 2006/2007 (discussed at quakecon 2004) and a revamp/development of his engine... things look good IMO! And less we forget

1. He is primarily a PC dev who ports to the consoles. He may be more interested in WGF 2.0 than the consoles. Nothing wrong with that.

2. The best sales are usually done at the END of a generation when the install base is large. Look at D3 for the Xbox. He took a next gen type game, cut it down some, got it onto the Xbox (which looks great!) and made a TON of cash.

If I had a choice of 50% penetration the 1st year (5M consoles) or 10% penetration in year 5 (50M consoles) I would go with the latter.

UC2 has not done very well on the Xbox.
Doom 3 has done pretty well on the Xbox.

Juding generations from the pre-gen hype is dangerous. Epic looks to be in GREAT shape, but id has 3 or 4 quality/popular franchises coming to the platform plus a new engine. First is not always best.

You call that bad shape. I call that good ;)

He's honest, that's true, and that's great in a certain a sense, but honesty never sold anything.

Honesty is respected. That is why a lot of us really look up to ERP, DeanoC, and guys like John. They all have their bias, hangups, and political connections, but all in all they shoot your straight and you cannot find fault with what they say. The best you can do is say, "I understand your perspective, but in the broad scheme I disagree".

In the end it is about the game. If id makes good next gen games no one is going to care if JC dislikes the PS3 or Xbox 360's CPUs.
 
Vysez said:
He's honest, that's true, and that's great in a certain a sense, but honesty never sold anything.

So you'd rather have snake oil right? After this year's E3 all sorts of editorials came out cautioning people that in the previous PS2/xbox generation there was also a lot of mind blowing trailers and major promises that were never followed through and many developers talking about this next generation's multicore requirements being disappointing to them.

JC is simply echoing this feeling and people complain he's not giving out hope? Who is "JC" supposed to be? Jesus Christ fighting off despair from a dark, broken world? Hope is the carrot dangling in front of the donkey. Why do people need hope in a piece of hardware they won't be able to purchase for at least 3 months? What would hope do for you? Pay your bills? Wash your car?

Having said all this, in the Keynote he specifically says all the multicore comments are "quibbles" and that he's actually very happy with the new consoles and the 3D industry in general. What more do people expect from someone they claim is "out of it"? Why is that whatever JC says doesn't matter any more but people continue to listen to him and criticise what he says? If you ask me, I think this is all a matter of thou dost protest too much.
 
I don't like thoses quote-fu replies, thus sorry if I just address the general lines and not each and every points. ;)

First thing to consider about my both replies, this one and the previous, is that I only talk from the middleware business point of view. The developer point of view, in the case of id or Epic, was not discussed by my posts.
Acert93 said:
In the end it is about the game. If id makes good next gen games no one is going to care if JC dislikes the PS3 or Xbox 360's CPUs.
I knew that we're not discussing the same issue. ;)

Acert93 said:
You call that bad shape. I call that good ;)
From a Middleware provider they're virtually dead as we speak. Dead.

Acert93 said:
Besides the point of JC having the freedome to voice his opinion, Epic being "diplomatic" is a financial one.
And that's the only thing that counts. :devilish:

Has you said on previously, those comments of his will come at the expense of his company only, and that's exactly what I considered stupid from him.
id as a whole should be on a marketing seduction mode, trying to create a positive buzz around their next-generation of product.
But no, they decided to come to the stage and speak about the minutiae of developing for next-gen processors, and emphasizing their inability to master those new technologies...
Great news for future licensed, heh?

The publishing people who shell out the big money for a global engine licence are the suits not
the devs. You'll never win a suit vote from any major publisher if you bad mouth their bread and butter, the consoles.

And since you were talking about the fact that Epic had a middleware product to sell right now as if that could be an explanation for id's inaptitude to keep the marketshare they once had.
I'll have to answer it's id and id's fault only if they have no engine ready for the new generation, NDL has a new Gamebryo, Criterion/EA has a new Renderware and of course Epic has its UE3.

Epic had a solution ready, on time, for the PC, the PS2, the GC, the Xbox (two solution for the Xbox actually) and now has a solution for PC/PS3/X360.
Epic even got global contracts with huge publishers like VUG, Midway and MS.
They're even included with every Devkits for the PS3 (And X360, IIRC?).

And what does have id?
A core consumer (The "hardcore gamer" and by extent the main manufacturers) PR disaster... Superb.

And after re-reading Hollenshead GI's interview, I can tell right now that they'll fade into obscurity for all what is middleware market.
Cool for Epic, I guess, new BMWs for everyone.

And at the same time somewhere in Texas, a small team of 20 dudes are working on a cookie cutter techno satanist shooter. If's that's fine by them... Fine by me.
But I have to say that at this pace they're slowly sliding into irrelevance.
 
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