IGN makes predictions on consoles for 2007*
- Thread starter Rangers
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http://xbox360.ign.com/articles/680/680220p1.html
http://xbox360.ign.com/articles/680/680526p3.html
couldn't find PS3 perdictions for last year.
http://xbox360.ign.com/articles/680/680526p3.html
couldn't find PS3 perdictions for last year.
Fu3lFr3nzy
Regular
ign said:
And which site(among many) is kissing gears' ass now and doesnt care about prey?
ign said:
Are they gonna keep saying this every year?
good god.ign said:
It didnt come 2006, but who knows, maybe 2007 will finally be the year ign gets this right
I think they are speaking in sales per month not in cumulated sales(ie installed base).
They said that in the wii part
Anyway, cristall ball prove less and less reliable lol.
my predictions
I have a Knack for predicting stuff, anything really, peoples reactions, sports scores, political moves etc.
I will now use my gift to predict the future of the console war.
*drum roll*.......*cymbal clash*!
Wii - The Wii sales will decrease slightly, but it will sell amazingly well better than the 360. A new Mario announced at E3 will again push some dramatic Wii system sales at xmas. At the end of 2k7, Wii sales will easily be over 10mil worldwide, perhaps close to 15mil!
XB360 - will have a very similar year as it did in 2006. Halo3 will be awesome, but it wont be the xmas system seller many expect it to be. Xb360 has moderate success in Europe. Price drop will be announced at E3, each core will be reduced by $50. At end of 2k7 there will be close to 17mil XB360s world wide.
PS3 - sales die down after xmas 2k6 due to its high price. Sony's EU launch will be very successful, despite the high price. By E3 in May, Sony's worldwide sales will be 5million. It will be there Sony will announce a $100 price drop on both Cores. Sony wins E3 with some very impressive showings of its exclusives. After the price drop sales increase dramatically. At Xmas, Sony increases the HD size of both cores and will ship all PS3s at xmas with the BLU-RAY Spiderman 3, while maintaining the $399 and $499 price. FFXIII, MGS4, GT:HD, KZ and other exclusives propel PS3 sales to massive quantities, making the PS3 the most successful system of 2007. At the end of 2k7, Sony sits easy with close to 15m units sold, just a hair behind the XB360.
At the end of 2k7, the market share will look like.
Wii 30% PS3 - 30% XB360 - 40%
I have a Knack for predicting stuff, anything really, peoples reactions, sports scores, political moves etc.
I will now use my gift to predict the future of the console war.
*drum roll*.......*cymbal clash*!
Wii - The Wii sales will decrease slightly, but it will sell amazingly well better than the 360. A new Mario announced at E3 will again push some dramatic Wii system sales at xmas. At the end of 2k7, Wii sales will easily be over 10mil worldwide, perhaps close to 15mil!
XB360 - will have a very similar year as it did in 2006. Halo3 will be awesome, but it wont be the xmas system seller many expect it to be. Xb360 has moderate success in Europe. Price drop will be announced at E3, each core will be reduced by $50. At end of 2k7 there will be close to 17mil XB360s world wide.
PS3 - sales die down after xmas 2k6 due to its high price. Sony's EU launch will be very successful, despite the high price. By E3 in May, Sony's worldwide sales will be 5million. It will be there Sony will announce a $100 price drop on both Cores. Sony wins E3 with some very impressive showings of its exclusives. After the price drop sales increase dramatically. At Xmas, Sony increases the HD size of both cores and will ship all PS3s at xmas with the BLU-RAY Spiderman 3, while maintaining the $399 and $499 price. FFXIII, MGS4, GT:HD, KZ and other exclusives propel PS3 sales to massive quantities, making the PS3 the most successful system of 2007. At the end of 2k7, Sony sits easy with close to 15m units sold, just a hair behind the XB360.
At the end of 2k7, the market share will look like.
Wii 30% PS3 - 30% XB360 - 40%
LOL, are you serious, ms will drop the price of 50$ after more than one year of production while sony will price 100$ and put a bigger hdd on both sku.... and worse big money ms won(t react with lower production costs..
They will shown some special sony woodoo at E3... obviously the ps3 is so fukin' powerfull, twice as powerfull in fact...
You're dreaming, Sony will be fine but... you're dreaming
I didn't think his prediction was *that* outrageous! If we are to believe that anything is possible, then certainly his given scenarios don't seem far from possible reality.
IMHO, he's "dreaming" if he said: "In 2007, Sega announces a new console @ E3, which is made available straight away, and is a run away success!" THAT would be dreaming!
IMHO, he's "dreaming" if he said: "In 2007, Sega announces a new console @ E3, which is made available straight away, and is a run away success!" THAT would be dreaming!
I predict gamers will be the big winners in 2007! No seriously, the market will remain the same in 2007. Wii will sell a lot however sales will slow down due to somewhat a lack of 3rd party games. 360 will own 2007 in terms of software sales and may own with hardware sales as well. PS3 will slowly make up more ground esp in Europe where it seems like Sony's strongest territory, however still due to pricepoints and more games available on 360 it will still be in #3.
By end of 07:
Wii - 14.5m units shipped WW
360 - 19.5m units shipped WW
PS3 - 12m units shipped WW
- Biggest sellers: Halo 3, Madden 08, Mario Galaxies, Heavenly Sword, MGS4 (if it makes it), Mass Effect, Forza 2, New Smash Bros, GTA4.
By end of 07:
Wii - 14.5m units shipped WW
360 - 19.5m units shipped WW
PS3 - 12m units shipped WW
- Biggest sellers: Halo 3, Madden 08, Mario Galaxies, Heavenly Sword, MGS4 (if it makes it), Mass Effect, Forza 2, New Smash Bros, GTA4.
The day Sony feels like playing the studio buying game, MS will be ready with MUCH deeper pockets.
However if MS does fail to drop the price before Summer, they should fire some staff.
The Wii will win out 07 easily. 360 2nd and PS3 third. MGS4 will not make it in 07. Heavenly Sword will have to go against Halo3 as the Holiday System seller for each console.
However if MS does fail to drop the price before Summer, they should fire some staff.
The Wii will win out 07 easily. 360 2nd and PS3 third. MGS4 will not make it in 07. Heavenly Sword will have to go against Halo3 as the Holiday System seller for each console.
Fu3lFr3nzy
Regular
So far, things look bleak for PS3 in 07. But, things "could" be better after E3, because who knows, some titles thats been MIA might pop up
But I guess thats not to say those titles will come out this year
But I guess thats not to say those titles will come out this year
Things are not this simple. Microsoft will not be able to buy Japanese studios that easily, there would be a lot of internal resistance (political) and it is highly unlikely they would keep the same staff after the purchase. They would be (very) hostile takeovers. On the flipside Microsoft needs DOJ/SEC approval to purchase the larger western studios - EA and Ubisoft spring to mind and given their track record this is not likely to be easily forthcoming. Microsoft has the money but is somewhat handicapped by the politics.
Sony has the political capital in Japan but is handicapped by a lack of free cash flow (LBO's are a possibility but a big no-no in today's market).
If the studio buying game were to go full force I could see Sony opting for SE (FF, KH, DQ) and Konami (MGS & PES) while Microsoft would likely acquire Capcom (hostile) and Ubisoft. EA is simply too important to be purchased by any company since it is highly likely it will be deemed anti-competitive. What about Take2 and Rockstar? That would be very interesting. Lest we forget Nintendo who have enough money to play with the other two if push comes to shove.
If predictions are right and Sony does indeed learn their lesson for ignoring third party exclusives and having such a lop-sided focus on in-house titles then SCEI will likely be on the lookout for studios to make 1st/2nd party.
They look to be wasting millions already with Factor 5’s LAIR, the 1080p craziness has surely destroyed this game as a graphical tour de force (no one will care if it is technically impressive, that is irrelevant) and KillZone – a game only funded because of a fanatical desire to have a flagship first party FPS on their system, made even more unfathomable given the fact that they did not have such a title on PS1 and PS2 and did not suffer as a result. SCE WWS funding decisions have been nonsensical. I can understand where they are coming from – they wish to take on the Nintendo model. I think this is unrealistic.
The fact that Microsoft reduced their forecast of unit sold for the fiscal indicate that they are not going to cut the price in the near future. IIRC, Steve Ballmer had said that 2007 is the year when the Xbox division must turn a profit. So it's unlikely we'll see a cut until the holiday season--if at all.
Their forecast calls for 12 mil units by Jun 30, so 17 mil sounds reasonable.
Demand for the PS3 has been soft in the US and even softer in Japan despite a lower price. It certainly isn't going to sell better in Europe when priced 30% higher. Recall also the fact that Microsoft has the football franchises locked up for 2007, which gives European gamers even less reason to buy the console. To add to that, the launch of Windows Vista will lighten the wallets of many early adapters by few hundred euro. My prediction is that the PS3 launch in Europe will be very disappointing, especially in the UK where it's most expensive. This in turn will become a PR disaster for Sony, as the financial press is centered around London.
Sony is in no financial shape to make a substantial cut. Given that they only managed to sell 1.2 mil or so units in 2006, I highly doubt they can add 14 mil to the figure in 12 months' time. I'm not even sure if they can build consoles that quickly. And in any event, doing so would kill their balance sheet, given the loss associated with each console. I foresee less than 5 mil PS3's by the year's end.
My new theory is 360 will price cut after Xenon goes to 65nm, possibly in July or so. This makes all kinds of sense.
THey're probably getting close to breaking even on hardware now. In six months they'll probably be slightly in the black. But yet, they're not about losing money this gen. So the price drop will not come until the cost of goods drops as well, which will happen most drastically at 65nm..
They have target fiscal 08 for profitibility, which actually starts after June 30 07. So the price drop very early in fiscal 08 will drop the 360 hardware back into the red initially (even with 65nm), but give them a full year to overcome this.
Have you read any financial papers over the last year? '06 was the year of private equity because borrowing has been so cheap i.e. leveraged buy outs. Go look: Dubai ports, 'that American hospital company', approaches for the LSE etc. all financed by cheap debt. They are a big yes-yes in todays market, especially Japan with an interest rate of just 0.25%.
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