Formula 1 - 2022 Season

[Pete]

Optimistically, it was maybe interesting as a data point for Ferrari to understand how far off the pace they were by sending LeClerc out in almost ideal conditions (new engine, new softs, low fuel, minimal traffic—only Alonso to pass but also to gain a tow from). Do I think they thought it through that thoroughly? No comment.

Gasly impressively got into the points from a pit lane start. I don’t know what beef he has with Ocon (especially since he seems like such an easygoing guy in recent interviews), but he’d be as intriguing as Ricciardo in an Alpine.

I’m looking forward to how these new close quarters combat cars do in Zandevoort’s weird banked combo turn. I think Alonso was punted off there last time.

 

[Globalisateur]

Optimistically, it was maybe interesting as a data point for Ferrari to understand how far off the pace they were by sending LeClerc out in almost ideal conditions (new engine, new softs, low fuel, minimal traffic—only Alonso to pass but also to gain a tow from). Do I think they thought it through that thoroughly? No comment.

Gasly impressively got into the points from a pit lane start. I don’t know what beef he has with Ocon (especially since he seems like such an easygoing guy in recent interviews), but he’d be as intriguing as Ricciardo in an Alpine.

I’m looking forward to how these new close quarters combat cars do in Zandevoort’s weird banked combo turn. I think Alonso was punted off there last time.

So once upon a time when they were young Gasly and Ocon were best friends until race rivalery ended their friendship. We don't know Ocon point of view but from Gasly's perspective Ocon was incredibly aggressive during race when he wasn't winning against Pierre (like he was crashing against him on purpose, probably the kind of ugly and dangerous moves Hamilton likes to do to others).

But things between them got better recently (at least since Ocon F1 win so well before any Alpine rumors) and it really doesn't seem like it's fake. It's like (as they both won a GP) they are actually respecting each others.

 

[Pete]

The latest is Gasly to Alpine, which I guess leaves just the Williams seat open to Ricciardo as he’s not going to AT and I see no reason why Alfa/Audi wouldn’t retain Zhou. It would be interesting for Williams to get Daniel on the cheap, as it were, if he’s already been paid by McLaren for next year.

 

[Pete]

Piastri will be a McLaren driver for 2023-24. Apparently he signed with them on July 4th. The four lawyers who make up the CRB all agreed that whatever he signed with Alpine didn’t preclude him from signing with McLaren. Alpine won’t appeal.

Edit: Light analysis of Gasly’s Spa race strategy with a former Aston strategist. He started last (both Alpha’s were set to start ahead of Verstappen and serendipitously both required pit lane starts*), only passed two cars on track, and ended up P9 thanks to pitting much earlier than anyone else. His instinct (and insisting) to pit early to get into free air worked a treat. The video has his very productive radio comms with his team. It seemed partly lucky (Albon holding everyone off), partly smart.

* I love how the strategist threw in a Ferrari-inspired “question?” to scoff at the legitimacy of Alpha’s double pit lane start.

 

[Bludd]

race was v good at points but the safety cars ruined the end of the race unfortunately

 

[Pete]

Gasly to Alpine a done deal if Colton Herta (American, current Indycar driver for McLaren) is granted a superlicense and thus can race for Alpha Tauri: https://nitter.net/ChrisMedlandF1/status/1566447832273485824#m

 

[Bludd]

and latifi fired at williams, danny ric in paid by mclaren?

or doohan in at williams, danny ric sabbatical?

 

[Pete]

Max said in the post-race presser (at 2:15) that the C1, C2 (the hardest of the five compounds, the H and M in this race) tires are a lot stiffer than the other compounds. It’s interesting to think of how this may have helped Merc perform better than expected on the H and maybe the M. Maybe the stiffer sidewalls prevented excessive bouncing and made their performance more predictable over bumps and mid-turn, or allowed them a softer suspension setup knowing they wouldn’t bottom out? Maybe the initially overcast conditions also affected tire performance.

At one point mid-race the Sky commentators noted how well Alonso was doing, having gotten ahead of Ocon despite starting well behind him. They didn’t notice or remark on how the first (virtual?) safety car allowed Ocon to jump Alonso and a few other people. IIRC, Bottas’ safety car put Alonso back in front.

Also interesting (and it show just how many variables strategists have to juggle) is that (roughly) a regular pit stop takes around 19s, a VSC/SC stop takes ~12s, and Russell’s last stop for softs only took ~7s because the SC took everyone through the pits.

OT, but some cynics expected AT to start from the pits in Spa to get out of Max’s way. Predictably, Tsunoda started from the pits because they changed some stuff on his car (RB probably didn’t trust him not to crash into Max). Gasly’s mysterious inability to fire up the car that equally mysteriously cleared up in the pits was also intriguing. I think they can trust him not to crash into a passing RB, but maybe they were finalizing his move to Alpine and thought that he may not be fully committed to RB knowing he was moving teams. This might be overly speculative, but you can’t take politics out of F1, so it’s maybe worth gaming it into any theories.

I forgot about Haas as a possibilty for Daniel, but they’re still closely affiliated with Ferrari and so may not be competely free to choose both drivers (Magnussen was a last-second choice that made sense because he was a veteran already familiar with the team).

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

And last Sunday Bottas stopped out on track on purpose to cause a SC...

I wasn't very impressed with Sky's commentary during the race either. I mean Crofty will be Crofty but usually Martin is there to keep him in check. But last race Crofty made an attempt to crawls so far up Mercs/Hamilton's ass that he was about to come out of their mouth.

What race was he watching thinking they could win? The only chance they had of winning was if Verstappen wouldn't have finished. IMO there is way to much Merc/Hamilton coverage anyway given how they aren't really competing for anything anymore nor are they involved in on track battles that much. Even my wife is noticing and commenting on it...

 

[iroboto]

And last Sunday Bottas stopped out on track on purpose to cause a SC...

I wasn't very impressed with Sky's commentary during the race either. I mean Crofty will be Crofty but usually Martin is there to keep him in check. But last race Crofty made an attempt to crawls so far up Mercs/Hamilton's ass that he was about to come out of their mouth.

What race was he watching thinking they could win? The only chance they had of winning was if Verstappen wouldn't have finished. IMO there is way to much Merc/Hamilton coverage anyway given how they aren't really competing for anything anymore nor are they involved in on track battles that much. Even my wife is noticing and commenting on it...

That speed differential. There was no chance. I’m not sure if softs would have helped but max would have gotten Hamilton on DRS. I don’t see how he could have held.

 

[Pete]

Excellent Jolyon Palmer analysis of whether Hamilton could have won the race without the various safety cars or even qualified P1 without Perez’s spin (no). Mercedes agrees in their race debrief, saying they lost more time behind Sainz in the opening stint than they lost to the SC, IIRC.

Both the free YouTube part of Palmer’s F1 race analysis and Merc’s debriefs are typically worth watching.

Edit: More F1 TV analysis of what Merc did and could have done under the SC with former Aston strategist.

Edit 2: Latest BBC article:

Mercedes driver Lewis Hamilton will start the Italian Grand Prix at the back because of a grid penalty for using too many engine parts. … The penalty almost certainly takes Hamilton out of the fight for victory at Monza

 

[Kaotik]

Porsche was expected to join Red Bull for 2026. According to Porsche, these talks have now been abandoned. They wanted equal footing in both engine & team and couldn't achieve it.

Porsche will not enter F1 with Red Bull in 2026

After months of rumours, the German automaker has decided not to enter into F1 with Red Bull in 2026.

racingnews365.com

 

[Bludd]

Porsche was expected to join Red Bull for 2026. According to Porsche, these talks have now been abandoned. They wanted equal footing in both engine & team and couldn't achieve it.

Porsche will not enter F1 with Red Bull in 2026

After months of rumours, the German automaker has decided not to enter into F1 with Red Bull in 2026.

racingnews365.com

more like, porsche wanted to control rbr

 

[Freemantle]

A race finishing behind the saftey car... how novel.

 

[Pete]

Albon had a post-op complication, repiratory failure (presumably failure to breathe on his own when intubation tube removed), but fully recovered overnight. Good thing he has 2.5 weeks to recover (and that he’s a 26yo athlete).

Alex Albon treated in intensive care after respiratory failure

Alex Albon was put on a ventilator after suffering complications following appendix surgery, say Williams.

www.bbc.com

 

[iroboto]

Albon had a post-op complication, repiratory failure (presumably failure to breathe on his own when intubator removed), but fully recovered overnight. Good thing he has 2.5 weeks to recover (and that he’s a 26yo athlete).

Alex Albon treated in intensive care after respiratory failure

Alex Albon was put on a ventilator after suffering complications following appendix surgery, say Williams.

www.bbc.com

serious. glad to hear he's okay. Can't imagine gforces are nice to stitches. Sounds like Nick will be driving for the next month

 

[pharma]

Budget cap breach 'speculation' say Red Bull, but Ferrari and Mercedes call it 'open secret'

Ferrari and Mercedes both say it is an "open secret" that two teams broke Formula 1's budget cap last year.

www.bbc.com

 

[Pete]

Budget cap breach 'speculation' say Red Bull, but Ferrari and Mercedes call it 'open secret'

Ferrari and Mercedes both say it is an "open secret" that two teams broke Formula 1's budget cap last year.

www.bbc.com

Boy, that’s a strong non-denial by Horner in there. I think I heard Aston Martin mentioned alongside Red Bull. (Edit: Yup, alongside an actual denial and threats by Horner.)

However, there is no expectation within F1 that the results of last year's championship will be changed. But there is serious concern among teams that the championship could be distorted by breaches of the budget cap.

Even a minor breach could give a team a significant advantage.

A 5% overspend in 2021 would amount to an overspend of $7.25m.

This is in the upper reaches of a leading team's annual spend on in-season development, so even a minor breach could amount to the equivalent of effectively an entire season's development.

If true, it seems bizarre that only 7mil of a 145mil budget is allocated to in-season development. It’s also strange that no one thinks there will be any points penalties that could affect last year’s results, but I guess F1 is an entertainment (hi, Netflix!) and amending old results is just too much work.

Funny how everyone explicitly mentioned how the new FIA head is a stickler for the rules.

Anyway, Albon qualified P19, 0.6s ahead of Latifi, who as far as I know didn’t suffer respiratory failure in the past few weeks. We’ll see if his cardio holds up for two hours tomorrow, as a safety car might mean the race hits the two hour time limit before the full 62 laps. Ocon and Russell both qualified well behind their teammates, both blaming (in part) their brakes. Verstappen was IIRC headed for a clear P1 but had to abort his last lap because he ran out of fuel (because he had to do an extra slow and hot lap thanks to Gasly causing a yellow that forced Max to abort his penultimate hot lap).

Supposedly Gasly will be announced for Alpine on the 5th (same day the FIA announces who followed the budget cap), and de Vries might be in contention for Gasly’s Alpha seat.

Edit: Joe Saward talks about the driver market for the remaining seats.

Edit 2: The latest on the driver market, with Ricciardo apparentky sitting 2023 out and returning as a Merc reserve(!):

Joe Saward says:
October 1, 2022 at 9:27 pm
Gasly = Alpine
NdV = Scuderia AlphaTauri
Logan Sargeant = Williams
Hulkenberg = Haas (maybe)

It bears repeating that Max was seven tenths up after sector 2 on LeClerc’s ultimate pole time on his penultimate lap (before RB said back off and charge for another lap) and nine tenths up on his final lap (before he was told to box due to low fuel). He could move through the field tomorrow. Still, pretty cool to see the top three separated by just half a tenth, albeit in the not entirely dry.

 

[Bludd]

exciting quali

but the fin regs saga is just bonkers, if rbr did indeed seriously overspend the fia has to come down hard on them, but i fear it will be like the ferrari engine thing.

 

[Pete]

FIA 2021 budget cap report delayed (for the third time) until Monday. Maybe Horner threatened to sue them for defamation, too.

This is why I read Joe’s green notebook:

It rained rather a lot in Singapore on Sunday night, delaying the start of the Grand Prix. It was the first time that this had happened in the history of the race, despite the fact that it has been going since 2008 and is always held in the typhoon season, when there is rarely a day without a big storm. My source for the following story is highly reliable, but I will leave it to you decide if it is credible. The Singapore Grand Prix, so they say, employed a local witch doctor to cast spells to ensure that rain did not fall when the races were on. Along came the pandemic and Singapore disappeared from F1 for three years. When the race was revived this year, the Grand Prix called up the witch doctor and discovered that the old fellow had gone to the great witch surgery in the sky and so a new witch doctor was required. A suitable replacement was found but no-one was quite sure if his magic would work. It didn’t.

No official announcement of driver moves, but Joe reiterated his predictions (two posts up) in that Singapore green notebook.