Formula 1 - 2015 season

[Kaotik]

That BBC report, while not settling the matter absolutely definitively, seems to pretty much point to that this was most likely a normal loss of car control by a driver trying to push the limits to get a better lap time. Then from the resulting crash receiving a significant concussion from which under medical advice it is deemed safest to ensure no possible impact repeat within a month thus ruling Alonso out of the first race. Given the car was being braked hard up until the point of impact it seems to rule out, pre impact loss of consciousness, seizure or electric shock and honestly some mechanical failure seems unlikely. Hopefully Alonso will suffer no lasting effect and can be back racing by round 2 and we can get back to all talking about the relative performance of the teams/cars.

But then, everyone including drivers say that Alonso just slamming on full brakes and shifting down doesn't sound normal, which would mean it wasn't "normal loss of car control"

 

[Kaotik]

McLaren has reportedly confirmed what the AS magazine said (aka memory loss, thinking he's karting driver who dreams of being F1 driver some day)

 

[nutball]

I'm mildly surprised that no-one has yet figured out how to blame Lewis Hamilton for the incident. I guess it's only a matter of time.

 

[Rurouni]

It was Hamilton's fault! By dragging his contract talks, it forced Alonso to take McLaren offer. Alonso was prepared to undercut Ham contract, but Ham kept delaying. In the end Alonso stuck to McLaren which turns out to be a dud thus Alonso overdrive and loose control. While we can't blame the accident itself on Hamilton, what Hamilton did is very annoying an to the benefit of no one and only serve as a detriment for Alonso to get into the best car for current gen F1 and at the same time leave Alonso no choice but to go to McLaren. When you drove half hearted for a team, bad things bound to happen, and Ham is the catalyst of it.
Also I've heard that Ham should've had finished his contract talks before testing begun, but his fallout with Nicole made his emotion unstable thus Ham didn't want to talk about contract until he can sort out his feeling. So ultimately this childish and unprofessional behavior cost Alonso a place in the Mercedes line up (because remember that he was planning to undercut Hamilton contract), and ultimately result in an accident for Alonso.

...

My head hurts... What did I just write?

 

[IainF]

But then, everyone including drivers say that Alonso just slamming on full brakes and shifting down doesn't sound normal, which would mean it wasn't "normal loss of car control"

The only quote of another driver I heard was when Button was shown the telemetry of the incident he said, "that's odd." However he did not elaborate on what he thought was odd and it was not with reference specifically to downshifting and braking. Others have pointed to the fact that downshifting and braking happened proves that Alonso did not have a seizure or and electric shock prior to impact. Clearly if he suffered memory loss as a result of the concussion then it makes absolute sense that they would be taking a very cautious approach to his clearance to race again. Sorry I still don't see the great conspiracy in all this except that it sells newspapers..

Edit: Typo.

 

[Kaotik]

I worded that insufficiently and poorly, I blame it on alcohol.
Should have put it "(ex-)drivers"
- Button
- Brundle who specified the down-shifting
- Vettel who said the crash overall was strange
- Coulthard saying "it [crash+what mclaren tells] all just doesn't add up"
- Arnoux saying that he's certain Alonso had some physical issue pre-crash, the crash shouldn't have caused what it did (and also adding that blaming wind is just an excuse, not real reason for the crash)
(and reportedly Barbazza (early 90's driver) would have said that Alonso had taken a electrical hit)

 

[IainF]

I worded that insufficiently and poorly, I blame it on alcohol.
Should have put it "(ex-)drivers"
- Button
- Brundle who specified the down-shifting
- Vettel who said the crash overall was strange
- Coulthard saying "it [crash+what mclaren tells] all just doesn't add up"
- Arnoux saying that he's certain Alonso had some physical issue pre-crash, the crash shouldn't have caused what it did (and also adding that blaming wind is just an excuse, not real reason for the crash)
(and reportedly Barbazza (early 90's driver) would have said that Alonso had taken a electrical hit)

The fact that several drivers say the crash is strange is not surprising. Every year (literally)there are examples of "strange" crashes, not least Maldonado doing a virtually carbon copy accident on the same turn previously. Looking into some of the comments of the above drivers, (most of whom I have a lot of respect for) mostly they are commenting at a time on or just before the news was officially released that Alonso was indeed concussed whereas Ron Dennis himself had admitted that their previous reports on that had been rather misleading indicating no concussion. Which would have indeed been strange, given the announcement then that under doctors advice he would not race. The problem in this situation is poor information/media management by McLaren and Ron Dennis in particular. I get the impression that Ron Dennis is a bit of a secretive control freak and his natural inclination is to admit nothing, especially in a situation that may impact their sponsors, which perversely I think has actually fuelled the conspiracy theories unnecessarily and probably annoyed his sponsors more.. if they had been more transparent from the get go I think this would have been a complete non-story. As for Barbazza saying it was an electric shock, that just does not fit the facts of what happened, the race marshals would have been using protective clothing in that event when assisting Alonso and again the ability to downshift and brake together itself would have been impossible while subject to a shock or having just received a debilitating one.

All that as it may be, I don't exactly see Alonso as a shrinking violet and he has not said anything (to my knowledge)since that indicates that he believes there was anything untoward about the whole incident. Happy to admit if I am wrong but I generally subscribe to the "cockup theory" rather than the "conspiracy theory." It is possible that even Alonso just made a mistake and in the split second time to react did not necessarily do the most optimal response to get the car back under control, for which I mean no criticism of Alonso; easy to say that some other response was better after the fact and looking at telemetry, harder to do in the heat of the moment. Everything after that just smacks of inept media communication by McLare combined with a certain amount people taking a chance to make Ron Dennis wriggle a bit. he is not exactly a fluffy bunny universally liked figure in F1.

 

[Dave Baumann]

McLaren has reportedly confirmed what the AS magazine said (aka memory loss, thinking he's karting driver who dreams of being F1 driver some day)

Not sure why this is a surprise - this is consistent with a concussion injury as it commonly occurs with concussion, it doesn't speak to any conspiracies to how it happened.

 

[Kaotik]

Not sure why this is a surprise - this is consistent with a concussion injury as it commonly occurs with concussion, it doesn't speak to any conspiracies to how it happened.

Didn't say it would be a surprise, just confirmation for one of the rumours.
But considering how McLaren as been handling reporting everything lately, who knows what's true and what's not, at least first few days every new statement contradicted previous ones

 

[Dave Baumann]

There's been one contradictory statement where Ron's Q/A said "it was like concussion, but not", the subsequent actual McLaren statement stated concussion. Other than that there's not been a "contradiction every few days".

 

[Kaotik]

There's been one contradictory statement where Ron's Q/A said "it was like concussion, but not", the subsequent actual McLaren statement stated concussion. Other than that there's not been a "contradiction every few days".

Maybe I've indeed mixed McLaren and just Dennis, but..
It was first "he's ok", then "routine check up at hospital", then "up to 48 hours in hospital", then "3 days in hospital" - now, these could of course go just as doctors get more info, that's not contradicting. but then this is:
Concussion-case went from "he's ok" aka no concussion to "concussion", then "lost consciousness but talking about even mild concussion is exaggaration" (which is already contradicting itself) and finally to "concussion, temporary memory loss"

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Having followed this in sports in the US for a bit. Concussions aren't the easiest thing to diagnose without a battery of tests. Sports players often continue to play with a concussion that they know they have even if the rules forbid players playing with a concussion. The reason they can get away with it, is because it's really easy to fool any on the spot concussion test.

We have no idea whether Alonso was unconscious when the McLaren team first saw him right after the crash or whether he was conscious and able to answer questions. Further we have no idea if he was able to answer the standard questions that are typically asked to determine if a concussion was sustained or even if the medical professionals asked those questions. They may have been too busy making sure he got to a medical facility ASAP whereupon he would be examined to see if he did suffer a concussion. In other words, Dennis, likely didn't know and just he didn't have one because he's Dennis.

48 hours is typical for most concussion diagnosis. The range is anywhere from 24 to 72 hours. So it isn't strange that when he was diagnosed with a concussion they gave the average, which is 48 hours. When the doctors finally determined just how serious it potentially was, that was upgraded to 72 hours. Again, nothing out of the ordinary when dealing with a concussion.

So, I suppose if there is anything to go to task for with regards to McLaren is that Dennis announced no concussion before they even knew if he did or did not have one. Everything else has been pretty bog standard.

Regards,
SB

 

[Dave Baumann]

Its called a developing situation.

The first day of the incident they pointed out there was a concussion and he would be staying in hospital, despite no physical injuries, the rest that followed came from what they doctors were telling them.

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/117777

"Fortunately, he's fine, but was concussed during the accident, which therefore required an overnight stay in hospital. That's normal practice.

BTW - Even Ron's erroneous comments referenced the memory loss, so its not a new thing that McLaren have stated:

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/117828

"There were reports of some inability to recall - again that's normal when you're shaken like this.

 

[Dave Baumann]

We have no idea whether Alonso was unconscious when the McLaren team first saw him right after the crash or whether he was conscious and able to answer questions.

I doubt the team saw him. By the looks of things he went straight from the car to the hospital, which being the case the team are likely going by a spotty communication chain from whatever the doctor want to tell parties outside of the immediate patents care (i.e. they may have only been giving his manager, or family if they were there the full details).

Unconfirmed reports indicate that they only heard heavy breathing, or maybe mumbling on the radio prior to extraction, and that may have been the last proper contact with him. [Edit] He was sedated trackside, so anything they heard on the radio would be the last direct communication.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Unconfirmed reports indicate that they only heard heavy breathing, or maybe mumbling on the radio prior to extraction, and that may have been the last proper contact with him. [Edit] He was sedated trackside, so anything they heard on the radio would be the last direct communication.

Well that would indicate that there was no "on the spot" concussion test. Meaning, as I suspected that no concussion tests were done until he was at the hospital. So again, everything operating as normal from the concussion POV of this whole thing.

And Dennis just being guilty of perhaps jumping the gun saying anything in an attempt to reassure people as soon as possible. Which happens all the time in the sports world.

Regards,
SB

 

[DJ12]

So, in a few hours it all kicks off, lets put our cards on the table.

Just how far ahead are Mercedes going to be?

I'll say 1.5 seconds at the end of qualifying.

 

[Kaotik]

So, in a few hours it all kicks off, lets put our cards on the table.

Just how far ahead are Mercedes going to be?

I'll say 1.5 seconds at the end of qualifying.

I'm gonna say they didn't lie when they said Ferrari/Williams/Red Bull are all within 0.1 sec, with Ferrari within 0.8sec of Mercedes - so under 1 sec ahead.

 

[Lightman]

So, in a few hours it all kicks off, lets put our cards on the table.

Just how far ahead are Mercedes going to be?

I'll say 1.5 seconds at the end of qualifying.

I will say we are for a nice surprise and they will 'only' be 0.8 seconds ahead (mostly because they will not want to risk it).

I wonder what will Sauber do with their 3 contracted drivers now Maybe quick change of driver during tyre pitstop?

 

[DJ12]

I think they were being nice then, Hamilton was 3 tenths quicker than bottas on a slower tyre (soft vs super soft) and rosberg decimated all on the super soft.

The good thing is though we'll soon know, on Saturday.

 

[mczak]

I wonder what will Sauber do with their 3 contracted drivers now Maybe quick change of driver during tyre pitstop?

The solution is obvious, but I'm not sure their 2 seat cockpit is ready for the first race ;-).