Yes, just like he lost his chance with 7th position at Melbourne.. oh wait
Anything can happen, and if Lotus can do 1 stop less I'd give Kimi at least as high chance as Rosberg, Vettel and Alonso for winning the GP, and friday practices long runs at least were really positive with Kimi doing a lot longer stint on the softer set without times dropping compared to anyone else
Stopping one time less didn't help them in Malaysia - the Adelaide victory was a 1-time result based on the other teams really having almost no clue about the tyres.
Rosberg has almost no chance of winning the grand prix so I'd agree that Kimi has about equal chance to him. Winning from so far back only happens if you have some big inherent advantage, ie tyres, much faster car or are maybe Alonso. Kimi will do well to make the podium from so far back - there are just too many fast cars ahead of him that he has to actually pass quite quickly in the race.
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