I would guess over the next year, yes.
Between the larger install base MS has and the expensive/slow launch from Sony, it would appear for many 3rd parties that the move to make the 360 the lead platform and codevelop on the PS3 would make most financial sense. This won't be the universal case, but from a money position it makes a lot of sense. Of course some games, like Madden, have 2 dev teams co-developing independantly.
If Sony can show the ability to significantly reduce cost enough to attract mainstream consumers to the value of their product (should see some big movement when 65nm Cell and RSX are completed in 2007 and EE+GS is removed), get over their supply issues, release AAA flagship games, and demonstrate they will catch and surpass MS in the near future this could change. But if you are starting a game TODAY, and with a 24 month dev cycle looking at Fall 2008, which do you choose?
Hard decision. Sony will do all the above things, it is just a matter of when. On the conservative side you have to look at MS: 13M-15M consoles by mid 2007 (more by the end of 2007, maybe 20M and who knows how many in 2008, 25-30M doesn't seem too far fetched), big franchises coming (like Halo, Fable, Forza, and their new IPs), a large and strong back library, and significant cost reductions to make the platform more appealing it would seem the 360 would be the short term safe bet.
Which is self fulfilling prophecy. If you can make more money on Platform A in the short term, you push that first. The result is then that platform gets more steam. And looking at MS's attach rate it seems publishers should be pretty happy thus far.
The 360 always ran the risk, while very small, of coming out like the DC (too early, not enough support, not powerful enough, not enough unique compelling content to drive early sales, bad reputation). 5 years with the PS2 seems to have been long enough to get gamers itching for something new, MS got EA and the other publishers on board, has produced hardware some developers prefer (especially on the PC side), and has slowling made inroads in unique content. It seems MS made the right gambles and I think publisher support will continue at a steady pace.
While Sony may catch MS in 2008 and pass by MS in 2009, the 360 isn't gonna flop and is a pretty safe bet while we wait and see how fast Sony gets everything under control. They may do that within 6 months, ala MS in 2005/2006 (launches are rough), but if you are making a game NOW for 2008 and will be releasing on the PS3 and Xbox 360 I think there are enough valid points to target the 360 as your primary platform. At worse it will be within shouting distance in sales of the PS3. At best the 360 will still be the market leader.
Between the larger install base MS has and the expensive/slow launch from Sony, it would appear for many 3rd parties that the move to make the 360 the lead platform and codevelop on the PS3 would make most financial sense. This won't be the universal case, but from a money position it makes a lot of sense. Of course some games, like Madden, have 2 dev teams co-developing independantly.
If Sony can show the ability to significantly reduce cost enough to attract mainstream consumers to the value of their product (should see some big movement when 65nm Cell and RSX are completed in 2007 and EE+GS is removed), get over their supply issues, release AAA flagship games, and demonstrate they will catch and surpass MS in the near future this could change. But if you are starting a game TODAY, and with a 24 month dev cycle looking at Fall 2008, which do you choose?
Hard decision. Sony will do all the above things, it is just a matter of when. On the conservative side you have to look at MS: 13M-15M consoles by mid 2007 (more by the end of 2007, maybe 20M and who knows how many in 2008, 25-30M doesn't seem too far fetched), big franchises coming (like Halo, Fable, Forza, and their new IPs), a large and strong back library, and significant cost reductions to make the platform more appealing it would seem the 360 would be the short term safe bet.
Which is self fulfilling prophecy. If you can make more money on Platform A in the short term, you push that first. The result is then that platform gets more steam. And looking at MS's attach rate it seems publishers should be pretty happy thus far.
The 360 always ran the risk, while very small, of coming out like the DC (too early, not enough support, not powerful enough, not enough unique compelling content to drive early sales, bad reputation). 5 years with the PS2 seems to have been long enough to get gamers itching for something new, MS got EA and the other publishers on board, has produced hardware some developers prefer (especially on the PC side), and has slowling made inroads in unique content. It seems MS made the right gambles and I think publisher support will continue at a steady pace.
While Sony may catch MS in 2008 and pass by MS in 2009, the 360 isn't gonna flop and is a pretty safe bet while we wait and see how fast Sony gets everything under control. They may do that within 6 months, ala MS in 2005/2006 (launches are rough), but if you are making a game NOW for 2008 and will be releasing on the PS3 and Xbox 360 I think there are enough valid points to target the 360 as your primary platform. At worse it will be within shouting distance in sales of the PS3. At best the 360 will still be the market leader.
