Article: Japan - Games That Could Save the 360

[pc999]

OK....
North America = 66.32 Million consoles sold
Europe = 49.87 Million consoles sold
Japan = 26.67 million consoles sold (*Actually lower since the PS2 number is for all of Asia, not just Japan)


The Japanese market is only slightly more than half the size of the European market, only about 40% of the US market size, and less than 25% of the global market.

Thanks.
BTW there is SW sales numbers too.

 

[Hardknock]

They may have sold more in the west, but they still sold very signifigant portions inside JPN which can't be ignored.

If japanese install base is irrelevant, why hasn't S-E announced a new FF game for 360? Wada had said previously they would decide by E3 which platforms FF would be on, 360 did horrible in japan, despite being the fastest selling console ever worldwide, and when E3 came around it was announced as a PS exclusive.

Obviously the success of the console in Japan influences the decisions of japanese developers when supporting systems, the evidence is staring you right in the face. Some developers like Capcom and From are jumping on board embracing the western markets, while others like S-E and Namco are still extremely hesitant to invest any major resources.

FF and DQ =/= the majority of Japanese games! Just because the 360 isn't successful in Japan doesn't mean a Japanese developer can't make a huge amount of money overseas. Any business minded developer sees this.

MS already has Resident Evil, FF XI, Dead Rising, Lost Planet, an exclusive Konami game, Tri-Ace RPG, Blue Dragon, Lost Odysee, CryOn, Enchant Arms, DOA4, Ninja Gaiden, Project Progressive, DOAX2, Dead or Alive Code Cronos, Project Sylph, Trusty Bell, etc... all on the way. And these are only the ones announced so far.

And as X360's userbase grows even more will come along or be ported from the PS3.

 

[scooby_dooby]

FF and DQ =/= the majority of Japanese games! Just because the 360 isn't successful in Japan doesn't mean a Japanese developer can't make a huge amount of money overseas. Any business minded developer sees this.

I agree, which is why I'm so frustrated by the SE business plan. You're preaching to the choir here. The fact remains though that japanese install base does influence the decisions of some developers. I do agree that the Japanese support for 360 is looking to be extremely impressive in the future, but we'll have to see how it stacks up to PS3.

 

[Sonic]

Of course Square Enix is not going to put a flagship Final Fantasy or Dragon Quest title on the Xbox 360. The userbase in Japan is too small which means they have little incentive to actually put those games on the system. Square Enix sells a lot of their RPG's in Japan, but this doesn't mean every other Japanese dev or publisher has the same sales rate in Japan. If MS sent $20 million their way I'm sure there would be an exclusive game from S-E.

But as it stands of now, if the Xbox 360 has a userbase in the American and European markets that exceeds the PS3's then they will get the support of the Japanese companies. While Square Enix may be important in the global scheme of things, they aren't that important and it will be easy for MS to still be successful and have a "diversified" lineup of games without them.

SEGA Genesis is a prime example of a console that did poorly in Japan but was a huge success for SEGA in the rest of the world. The market has changed since then, but more towards that of the western developed games have the most influence on the success of a console on a global scale.

 

[blakjedi]

neither FF nor DQ (or GT or MGS) are tentpole series so... in grand scheme of things who cares? The best selling Japaness games dont outsell the best selling western games, and for the first time in modern memory, a western console has all the tentpole series games; those being Madden, GTA, and Halo... only on 360 can you play all three and only those three games really define a marketshare for console because individually and collectively they outsell everything else....

Japan matters as a matter of pride but in the grand scheme of things not really... when the market changes which it is... the jdevs will change too... they will have to...

 

[zed]

Madden, GTA, and Halo!
huh! the facts dont back that up
looking at the sales figures ( japan - US - europe)

Gran Turismo 3 sold 12.47million in the west
the best selling madden game Madden NFL 2004 sold a mere 4.08 million

Gran Turismo 3 A-Spec PS2 1.89 6.88 5.59
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City PS2 0.47 7.81 5.35
Madden NFL 2004 PS2 0.00 3.97 0.11

 

[Shifty Geezer]

What's a tentpole game?

 

[ZiFF]

FF and DQ =/= the majority of Japanese games! Just because the 360 isn't successful in Japan doesn't mean a Japanese developer can't make a huge amount of money overseas. Any business minded developer sees this.

MS already has Resident Evil, FF XI, Dead Rising, Lost Planet, an exclusive Konami game, Tri-Ace RPG, Blue Dragon, Lost Odysee, CryOn, Enchant Arms, DOA4, Ninja Gaiden, Project Progressive, DOAX2, Dead or Alive Code Cronos, Project Sylph, Trusty Bell, etc... all on the way. And these are only the ones announced so far.

And as X360's userbase grows even more will come along or be ported from the PS3.

Ninja Gaiden? That certainly has not been announced.

 

[TheChefO]

What's a tentpole game?

A game that gives gamers a woody

or

A game that can hold up a platform

One of the two certainly!


Sonic-
FF or DQ has how many fans? What's the current installed base of ps3? What's the current installed base of 360? It matters little what the current installed base is because wherever these two rpg's go, the Japanese market will also go. If by some crazy stroke of genius Bill Gates said today, "I'm buying Square Enix and all their games will be exclusive for 360". What do you think would happen to 360 sales in Japan?

I think ms is fully aware of this but instead of forcing such a drastic (and expensive) action, they are attempting to do the same thing but instead forcing SE's hand by installed base and potential sales (or sales losses depending on how you look at it).

Sales in Japan of course will not force this action at the moment but sales outside of this country to the many millions of people worldwide who appreciate J-dev games and own 360's by this time, will be worthy of at least a port. Once the software is on an equal playing field, the price comes into focus and then the picture becomes very clear.

 

[blakjedi]

What's a tentpole game?

Its a game that draws other gamers into a console because of quality, or interaction... people buy Madden for example (and camp out for it every year) because all their friends play it...

Actually Zed the numbers do hold up... from 2004's data:

Annual 2004 Top 10 Video Game Titles Ranked By Units Sold
Source: The NPD Group / NPD Funworld / Point-of-Sale
RANK - TITLE - PLATFORM - PUBLISHER
1 - Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas - PS2 - Take II Interactive
2 - Halo 2* - XBX - Microsoft
3 - Madden NFL 2005* - PS2 - Electronic Arts
4 - ESPN NFL 2K5 - PS2 - Take II Interactive
5 - Need For Speed: Underground 2 - PS2 - Electronic Arts
6 - Pokemon Fire Red W/ Adapter - GBA - Nintendo of America
7 - NBA Live 2005 - PS2 - Electronic Arts
8 - Spider-Man: The Movie 2 - PS2 - Activision
9 - Halo - XBX - Microsoft
10 - ESPN NFL 2K5 - XBX - Take II Interactive
*Includes Limited & Collector’s Editions
Source: The NPD Group, January 2005

The top three games by units sold are...?

2003 Top 10 Console Video Game Titles By Units
Source: The NPD Group / NPD Funworld/ TRSTS
RANK - TITLE - PLATFORM - PUBLISHER
1 - MADDEN NFL 2004 - PS2 - ELECTRONIC ARTS
2 - POKEMON RUBY - GBA - NINTENDO OF AMERICA
3 - POKEMON SAPPHIRE - GBA - NINTENDO OF AMERICA
4 - NEED SPEED: UNDERGROUND - PS2 - ELECTRONIC ARTS
5 - ZELDA: THE WIND WAKER - GCN - NINTENDO OF AMERICA
6 - GRAND THEFT AUTO: VICE - PS2 - ROCKSTAR GAMES
7 - MARIO KART: DOUBLE - GCN - NINTENDO OF AMERICA
8 - TONY HAWK UNDERGROUND - PS2 - ACTIVISION
9 - ENTER THE MATRIX - PS2 - ATARI
10 - MEDAL HONOR RISING - PS2 - ELECTRONIC ARTS

No new Halo in 2003 sooo...

For whatever reason there is no list for 2002 but this comment is made by NPD:

"The video game industry generated $10.3 billion in record-breaking sales, surpassing the previous record high of $9.4 billion in 2001...The healthy increase in sales was driven by the success of key franchises such as Grand Theft Auto: Vice City..."

You were saying?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Its a game that draws other gamers into a console because of quality, or interaction... people buy Madden for example (and camp out for it every year) because all their friends play it...

Okay. Though by that definiton GT is tentpole, as that's what got me into PS2 - a friend with that game. which impressed me so much. Zelda and Mario are also tentpole games, no? So I think your suggestion that one console has all the tentpole games is a bit off. I'm sure Heavenly Sword and other new PS3 IPs, and other Wii titles, will do their share of attracting attention and garnering sales. MGS4 would probably manage the same. And there will be j-devs producing these key titles, no? Imagine PSP without japanese development support!

Also no-one of sense if going to argue that western markets, particular the US, is going to be buying jap titles over US titles. Holding the top few slots for Japan isn't the point. The point is, without the library diversity the Japan brings, the machine loses appeal. eg. If you have XB360 with Madden and GTA and only western games like shooters and racers, and PS3 with Madden and GTA and a whole range of different games including diverse jap games, which will the Western markets prefer? Everyone may like eating burgers best of all foods, but if you had to choose one place to eat for every meal, where one only offered burgers, and the other offered burgers plus a wide and varied menu, where would you choose?

 

[blakjedi]

Okay. Though by that definiton GT is tentpole, as that's what got me into PS2 - a friend with that game. which impressed me so much. Zelda and Mario are also tentpole games, no? So I think your suggestion that one console has all the tentpole games is a bit off.

GT at one point was a tentpole series but really isnt any longer because its competition within the genre could be said to be equal or greater (Forza)... Halo has not found an equal, Madden was surpassed by 2K series but they are no more and GTA is the standard for that genre. Once upon a time (Snes days) Zelda and Mario were tentpole because more people chose Nintendo over Sega because of those titles...

Everyone may like eating burgers best of all foods, but if you had to choose one place to eat for every meal, where one only offered burgers, and the other offered burgers plus a wide and varied menu, where would you choose?

True... but there is also the problem that if the menu is too varied (ala a diner) its generally good enough to consume... when you dont know what you want to eat or ar in a rush, but not a particularly good choice for any single dish...

 

[TheChefO]

Everyone may like eating burgers best of all foods, but if you had to choose one place to eat for every meal, where one only offered burgers, and the other offered burgers plus a wide and varied menu, where would you choose?

Agreed - Nobody can factually argue the superiority of ps2 in diversity and quantity of games last gen. I would pose the questions of:
Why did ps2 have this diversity/quantity of games?
Was it the diversity of developers?
Where did they come from?
Why did they develop these games on ps2 and not on others?
Why were they not ported to other systems?
When did the majority of thse diverse games hit the system?
When did the developers decide to start to make these games?
Are there relationships/contractual agreements in place to keep these developers with Sony or is it possible they could jump ship in some fashion this gen?

These are the questions which must be asked, thought about, and answered at this point if diversity in games matters to you.

 

[blakjedi]

Agreed - Nobody can factually argue the superiority of ps2 in diversity and quantity of games last gen. I would pose the questions of:
Why did ps2 have this diversity/quantity of games?
Was it the diversity of developers?
Where did they come from?
Why did they develop these games on ps2 and not on others?
Why were they not ported to other systems?
When did the majority of thse diverse games hit the system?
When did the developers decide to start to make these games?
Are there relationships/contractual agreements in place to keep these developers with ps3 or is it possible they could jump ship in some fashion this gen?

These are the questions which must be asked, thought about, and answered at this point if diversity in games matters to you.

the answer is actually easy... Out of the 50, 60 70 80 90 million people that bought a ps2 our game is good enough for at least a million in sales... right? Right? Thats all it was ... and being the best selling console in Japan it was all they saw so they felt confident in releasing whatever they could and it selling on a humble... 90% of those games are pure trash...

 

[TheChefO]

and being the best selling console in Japan it was all they saw so they felt confident in releasing whatever they could and it selling on a humble...

And so how will this play out this gen? With Japanese looking a bit more apprehensive toward ps3 than ps2 and Japanese consumers loving the innovative DS and seemingly loving Wii at this point and the fact that Wii will have a much lower price point and 360 has not set their world on fire yet, where do you think j-gamers will go this gen (console wise)?

 

[one]

GT at one point was a tentpole series but really isnt any longer because its competition within the genre could be said to be equal or greater (Forza)... Halo has not found an equal, Madden was surpassed by 2K series but they are no more and GTA is the standard for that genre. Once upon a time (Snes days) Zelda and Mario were tentpole because more people chose Nintendo over Sega because of those titles...

Which tent? America or whole NA/EU? Is Halo big in EU other than UK?

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

Holding the top few slots for Japan isn't the point. The point is, without the library diversity the Japan brings, the machine loses appeal. eg. If you have XB360 with Madden and GTA and only western games like shooters and racers, and PS3 with Madden and GTA and a whole range of different games including diverse jap games, which will the Western markets prefer?

And that's demonstrated by any sort of factual evidence, where?

Really. The top selling games are all western games, or cross platform games, or shooters and racers that happen to be made by asian developers.

What you are trying to say is that the western markets love to buy their GTA, Madden, Halo, etc.. (as demonstrated by the sales figures), but they will choose the more expensive PS3 over the 360 because they might want the option to purchase a Japanese RPG that none of their friends will have heard of and will only sell 100,000 copies?

Do you have anything factual to support such a claim? Or does it just 'make sense' to you?

Because what 'makes sense' to me is that developers, anywhere, will develop for the platform they believe will move the most units.

If there's enough of a market for their 'eastern' genres in western markets they will develop for consoles that will provide that market.

 

[zed]

according to the wikipedia here are the top franchises

By franchise
Mario series (188 million)
Pokémon (143 million)
Final Fantasy (60.9 million)
Sonic the Hedgehog series (50 million)
Grand Theft Auto (48.4 million)
The Legend of Zelda series (47 million)
Tetris (44.1 million)
Donkey Kong (44 million)
Gran Turismo (43.7 million)
Dragon Quest (35.5 million)
Command & Conquer series (35 million)
Crash Bandicoot (33.4 million)
Mario Kart (33.4 million)
James Bond (30 million) [35]
Madden NFL (30 million) [36]
Resident Evil (30 million) [37]
The Sims (28 million)
Tomb Raider (28 million) [38]
Tony Hawk's Pro Skater (27.8 million) [39]
Street Fighter (27 million) [40]
Mega Man (24 million) [41]
Tekken (22.2 million)
Mortal Kombat (21 million) [42]
Kirby (20.9 million)
FIFA series (20 million) [43]
Metal Gear (17 million)
Halo (13.6 million)
Harry Potter (13.2 million)
Metroid series (12.3 million)
Super Smash Bros. series (11.6 million)

sure some are outdated but to claim that halo, gta + madden are the 3 most important is embarassing.
sure gta is the most important franchise im sure we all agree.
also to say forza with less than 2million sales worldwide is anywhere near Gran Turismo in presense is also embarassing (btw Gran Turismo doesnt do well in japan most sales are in the west)

 

[Qroach]

if you took sales numbers for just last gen (PS2, Xbox and game cube) it would be a VERY different story. You can't take numbers dating back into the 80's for some of those franchises to disprove what franchises were tops "this past" generation. Even the GTA numbers are including sales dating abck to PS1.

 

[blakjedi]

if you took sales numbers for just last gen (PS2, Xbox and game cube) it would be a VERY different story. You can't take numbers dating back into the 80's for some of those franchises to disprove what franchises were tops "this past" generation. Even the GTA numbers are including sales dating abck to PS1.

thats why i used the npd data from the last three years and not the wiki data...