Article: Japan - Games That Could Save the 360

[scooby_dooby]

what fact after 8 months NPD numbers for the US are
360 2.0 million
xbox 2.4 million
ps2 2.7 million

the 360 is doing worse than the xbox after 8months in the US,

Fact is 360 did the first ever worldwide launch in the history of consoles, and because of that is the fastest selling console ever worldwide. Period.

Lack of sales in the US is a direct result of low launch shipments due to the worldwide launch. I'm not sure why you choose to ignore such an obvious fact...well I probably know why.

 

[Serenity Painted Death]

Fact is 360 did the first ever worldwide launch in the history of consoles, and because of that is the fastest selling console ever worldwide. Period.

Lack of sales in the US is a direct result of low launch shipments due to the worldwide launch. I'm not sure why you choose to ignore such an obvious fact...well I probably know why.

You're still wrong on every count.

First 8 months of 360 = 3 million sales

First 8 months of PS2 = 4.1 million. Or does the fact that it hadn't yet launched in Europe disqualify it in your opinion?

Lack of sales in the U.S. is due to low launch shipments? If that is true, why is there a 2 million unit difference between sold systems and shipped systems? 1.8 million systems shipped to the U.S. last quarter... they sure didn't sell that many here!

Did people lose interest or something?

It's not all bad, though, especially when you consider that the 360 is $400.

 

[<nu>faust]

You're still wrong on every count.
First 8 months of 360 = 3 million sales
First 8 months of PS2 = 4.1 million. Or does the fact that it hadn't yet launched in Europe disqualify it in your opinion?
Lack of sales in the U.S. is due to low launch shipments? If that is true, why is there a 2 million unit difference between sold systems and shipped systems? 1.8 million systems shipped to the U.S. last quarter... they sure didn't sell that many here!
Did people lose interest or something?
It's not all bad, though, especially when you consider that the 360 is $400.

i gotta have some small additions/corrections

First 8 months (245 days) Ps2 Japan Sales ( according to Famitsu )

4 / 4 2000 - 141/ 4 2000 = 3.33 mil

U.S Launch ( NPD )

10 / 26 - 10 / 31 = .392 mil

10 / 31 - 11 / 4 = .025 (approximation: 187k for the month of november )

so worldwide sales of Ps2 in First 8 months was around 3.747 mil.


Now let's look at 360...Since this worldwide launch thing makes tracking down actual sales numbers nearly impossible (360 is on sales in 40 different countries as of today) , all we can do predictions/speculation at this point but, i believe the sold hardware numbers that i have below should be pretty close to actual numbers.

First 7 months and a week (220 days) 360 Worldwide Sales ( Nov 22- June 30 )

Japan .145 mil
USA 2.0 mil
Europe .9 - 1.0 mil
Other .3 mil

so worldwide sales of 360 in first 7 months and a week could /should be around 3.345 - 3.445 mil.

Well these numbers are certainly not overwhelmingly positive for Microsoft but then again i think they are not bad at all. Some might say "solid if not spectacular"

 

[Shifty Geezer]

what fact after 8 months NPD numbers for the US are
360 2.0 million
xbox 2.4 million
ps2 2.7 million

the 360 is doing worse than the xbox after 8months in the US,

Only because they divvied up the available units worldwide though. How's about another erroneus stat? Go look up how many XB's sold in the EU 4 months after launch day (Launch day being Nov 15th). I'll give you a clue - by that period in the EU, XB had sold no units. The EU didn't get any until March 14th.

Now let's apply some high-powered statistical analysis.

Number XB360's sold in EU in first for months = 100,000 (don't know what the figure is, but as you'll see in a minute, that's not going to matter much )

Number XB's sold in EU in first four months = 0

Percentage sales growth = (100,000 / 0) * 100
That's, let's see...one in the tens column...carry the three...multiply...ah, that's infinity percent increase! So despite achieving lower sales in the US, an infinity increase in sales over the same period in the EU more than makes up for that, no?

 

[TheChefO]

I've no interest in starting or maintaining any kind of system-bashing discussion (particulary since I own a 360 myself), but you gotta agree with me there's a significant dearth of titles - particulary high-profile ones - for the 360 right now. Has there been any hit game released since Oblivion, which was MONTHS ago now? I can't think of any.

I'm sure this is affecting sales figures.

Agreed - there is a significant drought of software and no game out that truly takes advantage of the system with enough mainstream appeal that it would sell the system to people who don't currently own it. And yet ... they have still sold 5 million units! That is my point. They have no business selling even this amount. I agree they should have been doing a much better job of getting quality software out earlier so that at this point they have compelling titles that push the system before the other two bullies come into their playground and steal their lunch money!

Fact is they have what I would consider a poor launch library and have not built much on top of that and yet they have still managed to sell 5 million consoles and a good portion of those at $400. I say they've done pretty good with what they have

 

[Platon]

Agreed - there is a significant drought of software and no game out that truly takes advantage of the system with enough mainstream appeal that it would sell the system to people who don't currently own it. And yet ... they have still sold 5 million units! That is my point. They have no business selling even this amount. I agree they should have been doing a much better job of getting quality software out earlier so that at this point they have compelling titles that push the system before the other two bullies come into their playground and steal their lunch money!

Fact is they have what I would consider a poor launch library and have not built much on top of that and yet they have still managed to sell 5 million consoles and a good portion of those at $400. I say they've done pretty good with what they have

I guess, it is a bit difficult being the first next gen system out, when it comes to getting games. Most developers are still focusing primarily on current gen consoles and wait till atleast a second next gen is launched before really taing advantage of them. The other thing, the one that comes second benefits from the work already done for the first next gen system and will most likely faster get "next gen" games, rather than ports. No to mention that MS was extremely late with their dev kits...

 

[Shifty Geezer]

And yet ... they have still sold 5 million units! That is my point. They have no business selling even this amount.

You mean 3.5 million right? Or did you mean shipped? Not that I know how that ties in with the topic.

 

[BenSkywalker]

Is it?

They've sold 2.5 million more systems world-wide in the first 6 months than the original Xbox did.

They sold 1.9Million in the US alone in the first six months of the original XBox. If what you want to believe were true they would have been @4.4Million units in April- a number they still haven't come close to hitting. This is based on actual sales data. I don't know what numbers you are using, but I can't find anything remotely close to support what you are saying.

Just because their launch strategy of releasing in all 3 major regions in a single month limited supplies in one doesn't mean they are doing poorly when their total sales are more than double the original system, does it?

I can't comment on the scenario that you are talking about, as it didn't come remotely close to happening. If they did in fact manage that then that wouldn't have been nearly as bad as what they are facing now. Using the most ambitious numbers I could find, which are MS's own- they managed to "sell" 3.2Million consoles within six months. MS's breakdown for that period included 1.8Million in the US, 1.1Million in Europe and 300K in the rest of the world. Sales data for the same period indicated that only 1.5Million 360s had sold in the US, and those numbers are the same source that we have been using for the PS2 and original XBox(NPD). Of course, MS's current claims about closing in on the 5-6Million range sound familiar to me....

Microsoft's replenishment strategy means that a steady supply of Xbox systems will be hitting retail outlets weekly, helping ensure there is enough product to meet current demand. Microsoft expects to ship between 4.5 million and 6 million Xbox systems worldwide by the end of June.

http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/press/2002/mar02/03-21momentumeuropeprusversion.mspx

That should frame things for you. How they did in the last launch versus this supposedly new super global launch. Reality isn't matching up with their hype.

Fact is current 360 sales in the US are a lot closer to the rate the PS2 sold at than they are the original Xbox, and world-wide they've nearly doubled Xbox sales with the 360. How can you possibly call that "very very poor"?

To state again, and with links provided this time- they aren't anywhere remotely close to being able to dream about doubling the original XBox's sales at this point.

277K, 264K, 281K- they were all real close for this time frame(month eight of their life cycles). Of course, the PS2 was still having major issues with shortages at that point in its lifecycle(month 8 for PS2 was May where they sold 281K, in June they sold 343K- they didn't fall below 300K in the US from month eight, May 2K1, until April '03). This partly ignores the fact that Sony was also tearing up everything in Japan. MS isn't doing very well anywhere right now. They are below the original XBox in their strongest territory- a territory that they LOST by a 24Million unit gap(actually, that is still growing). In Japan they are also doing worse then they did last gen. The only market that they have made improvment in is Europe- and that is due to them launching earlier more then hitting greater sales in terms of time on market.

Maybe MS will manage to get things turned around in a major way, right now they are not getting it done. Not in terms of luring in new customers and certainly not for those of us who have been sitting around waiting for decent games to hit. In all honesty, eight months in the N64's lineup obliterates what the 360 has as of now. MS needs to get a lot more agressive then they have been, maybe they should drop their price to $199 for Core and $249 for premium? I'm not sure, but demand isn't there for them at either the $399 or $299 pricepoint right now.

Edit-

I'd like to point out that my focusing on the global sales of the 360 directly relates to improved Japanese support as their only viable shot of making a dent in Sony from that angle is if they are a serious competitor on a global basis- this doesn't look like it is going to happen the way things are tracking at this minute(that could change tomorrow though of course).

 

[pipo]

I'm not sure, but demand isn't there for them at either the $399 or $299 pricepoint right now.

I check the pallets at some local stores every now and then, but they're still moving a lot of premiums over here (Netherlands).

And considering the local temperature, that's saying something.

 

[TheChefO]

You mean 3.5 million right? Or did you mean shipped? Not that I know how that ties in with the topic.

I mean shipped of course just as Sony uses those numbers - I'd consider it a standard metric as the majority use it.

 

[Powderkeg]

They sold 1.9Million in the US alone in the first six months of the original XBox.

That's nice.

They didn't even launch the Xbox in Europe until after the system was already out for 4 months in the US, and it's European price was WAY too high which resulted in next to zero sales.

So all you have is US sales, and a handful of Japanese sales, and 2 months of extremely overpriced European sales compared to the 6 month world-wide total of the 360.

If what you want to believe were true they would have been @4.4Million units in April- a number they still haven't come close to hitting. This is based on actual sales data. I don't know what numbers you are using, but I can't find anything remotely close to support what you are saying.

Last time I checked November 22 to April is less than 5 months, not 6. May 22 would be 6 months, and MS had sold more than 4 million units by then. More than a million more systems sold than the original Xbox in the same time frame.

I can't comment on the scenario that you are talking about, as it didn't come remotely close to happening. If they did in fact manage that then that wouldn't have been nearly as bad as what they are facing now. Using the most ambitious numbers I could find, which are MS's own- they managed to "sell" 3.2Million consoles within six months.

Perhaps you shouldn't comment until you learn how to count up to 6.

November 22- December 22 = 1 month.
November 22 - January 22 = 2 months
February 22 would be 3 months, March would be 4, April would be 5, and May would be 6.

So, you're wrong on time scale and your numbers are wrong because of it.

http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/press/2002/mar02/03-21momentumeuropeprusversion.mspx

That should frame things for you. How they did in the last launch versus this supposedly new super global launch. Reality isn't matching up with their hype.

This should frame things up for you.

http://www.revo-europe.com/news.php?nid=2128

http://news.com.com/2100-1040-886556.html

Microsoft now expects to sell 3.5 million to 4 million units for its 2002 fiscal year, which ends June 30.

Not quite the picture you are trying to paint, is it? Looks to me like 1-1.5 million less than the 360 numbers MS just released.

That's not quite the failure you are claiming, is it?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I mean shipped of course just as Sony uses those numbers - I'd consider it a standard metric as the majority use it.

Okay. It is a standard if somewhat confusing metric. Maybe here on B3D we should make the distinction between 'shipped' and 'sold' to save confusion, rather than using the term 'sold' to mean both shipped and sold to end users? That's an idea that'd have to be ratified through commitee of course.

 

[mckmas8808]

That's nice.

They didn't even launch the Xbox in Europe until after the system was already out for 4 months in the US, and it's European price was WAY too high which resulted in next to zero sales.

So all you have is US sales, and a handful of Japanese sales, and 2 months of extremely overpriced European sales compared to the 6 month world-wide total of the 360.



Last time I checked November 22 to April is less than 5 months, not 6. May 22 would be 6 months, and MS had sold more than 4 million units by then. More than a million more systems sold than the original Xbox in the same time frame.






Perhaps you shouldn't comment until you learn how to count up to 6.

November 22- December 22 = 1 month.
November 22 - January 22 = 2 months
February 22 would be 3 months, March would be 4, April would be 5, and May would be 6.

So, you're wrong on time scale and your numbers are wrong because of it.




This should frame things up for you.

http://www.revo-europe.com/news.php?nid=2128

http://news.com.com/2100-1040-886556.html



Not quite the picture you are trying to paint, is it? Looks to me like 1-1.5 million less than the 360 numbers MS just released.

That's not quite the failure you are claiming, is it?

You are WAAAAAAY off!!!

 

[scooby_dooby]

You're still wrong on every count.

First 8 months of 360 = 3 million sales

First 8 months of PS2 = 4.1 million. Or does the fact that it hadn't yet launched in Europe disqualify it in your opinion?

Well, now that we've reached the 8th month it does include the US launch of PS2, which does push it up slightly above 360 in overall sales WW, until this month the statement was true.

Perhaps a more interesting topic of discussion, is the relevancy of these initial numbers. XBOX sold nearly as much as PS2 initially, that didn't work out too well for XBOX now did it? Granted it had a huge headstart to overcome but these initial 1st year numbers aren't really indicitive of how a console will sell through a 5-6year cycle.

Regardless, the 360 is selling very well, extremely close to the PS2 which should be considered excellent.

 

[mckmas8808]

Granted it had a huge headstart to overcome but these initial 1st year numbers aren't really indicitive of how a console will sell through a 5-6year cycle.

Regardless, the 360 is selling very well, extremely close to the PS2 which should be considered excellent.

How in the heck do you say something smart and completely dumb in the same quote?

The 360 is basically doing worldwide what the PS2 was doing in one territory and a second territory just launched. And that was with demand so high that everybody knew that enough PS2's weren't on the shelves.

 

[scooby_dooby]

How in the heck do you say something smart and completely dumb in the same quote?

The 360 is basically doing worldwide what the PS2 was doing in one territory and a second territory just launched. And that was with demand so high that everybody knew that enough PS2's weren't on the shelves.

PS2 was PS2. It was the follow up to PS1, talk about momentum. The fact 360 is keepign pace with that is pretty good I would say. The 360 will now get the benefit of holiday sales in 3 regions (ok 2.1) so lets just see how it all shakes out after the holidays.

 

[mckmas8808]

PS2 was PS2. It was the follow up to PS1, talk about momentum. The fact 360 is keepign pace with that is pretty good I would say. The 360 will now get the benefit of holiday sales in 3 regions (ok 2.1) so lets just see how it all shakes out after the holidays.

But see that's the thing Scoob. The PS2 later in that time span was launched in Europe AND the sales for the system in NA increased in a big way. I think this comparision that you are trying to make in totally unfair to MS and its Xbox 360.

 

[scooby_dooby]

But see that's the thing Scoob. The PS2 later in that time span was launched in Europe AND the sales for the system in NA increased in a big way. I think this comparision that you are trying to make in totally unfair to MS and its Xbox 360.

Not sure I'm following you, 360 sales should increase next year in every region as well, as console sales typically do in year 2 (who knows what'll happen in JPN though).

I do think the WW launch is turning out to be pretty uneffective. Although, truth is we don't know how many units MS is selling worldwide, i.e. the other 24 countries we don't get numbers for.

Maybe Sony will do it right, with 6million in 4 months, we'll see.

 

[mckmas8808]

Not sure I'm following you, 360 sales should increase next year in every region as well, as console sales typically do in year 2 (who knows what'll happen in JPN though).

I do think the WW launch is turning out to be pretty uneffective. Although, truth is we don't know how many units MS is selling worldwide, i.e. the other 24 countries we don't get numbers for.

Maybe Sony will do it right, with 6million in 4 months, we'll see.

My point is European sales haven't even started yet in the PS2 numbers that you are talking about. The numbers for the PS2 in EU at launch were huge compared to what the Xbox 360 has done so far.

So comparing the next few months to a EU launch, Japan numbers, and a ramp up of PS2's in NA is unfair to the Xbox 360. And the PS2 shouldn't be some pedestal to compare a videogame hardware system to. It's the best videogame h/w ever in history.

 

[BenSkywalker]

They didn't even launch the Xbox in Europe until after the system was already out for 4 months in the US, and it's European price was WAY too high which resulted in next to zero sales.

What does that change?

Last time I checked November 22 to April is less than 5 months, not 6. May 22 would be 6 months, and MS had sold more than 4 million units by then. More than a million more systems sold than the original Xbox in the same time frame.

Through April. Every system being discussed is using the same metric- their first month numbers include a partial month. That goes for every system we are talking about. Try and keep in mind that it isn't any different for the consoles you are trying to make excuses for. Also- MS claimed they had shipped that many units. I am using hard sales data for all the systems. Not their press releases, actual sales numbers. Sony and MS both inflate their numbers enormously- if you want to start using those numbers then we must do the same for all the systems.

So, you're wrong on time scale and your numbers are wrong because of it.

I work within the context of reality. The market counts numbers in a particular manner, and those are precisely what I am using.

Not quite the picture you are trying to paint, is it? Looks to me like 1-1.5 million less than the 360 numbers MS just released.

I can always count on the loyalists to prove my point exactly. Hmmm, so MS blatantly lies to inflate their numbers- and you did me the courtesy of proving it, how kind of you

Your claim was that MS sold 2.5Million more units in their first six months. I am saying that is flat out wrong and not even remotely close to the truth. I have posted actual sales numbers using the industry standard tracking mechanisms. You have attempted to change the way the industry counts- but only for one console. The orginal XBox launched on the 15th of November- are you trying to say that seven day window accounts for the roughly couple of million short they are coming from you claims?