Article: Japan - Games That Could Save the 360

[Serenity Painted Death]

re4 gc - tech achievement - expect 80% visual parity at edtv res ps3-Wii. Also consider most j-dev games do not push tech.

I stopped reading right there. Ridiculous.

P.S. Most Western Devs don't push tech, either.

P.P.S. Most of ANYTHING don't push things to the limit

P.P.P.S. Kojima, among many others (like maybe the Ico/SOTC team, Polyphony... I could go on for awhile) would like to have a word with you. Ninja Gaiden also says "hello."

 

[TheChefO]

I stopped reading right there. Ridiculous.

P.S. Most Western Devs don't push tech, either.

P.P.S. Most of ANYTHING don't push things to the limit

P.P.P.S. Kojima, among many others (like maybe the Ico/SOTC team, Polyphony... I could go on for awhile) would like to have a word with you. Ninja Gaiden also says "hello."

Hence the word most - try not to be so sensetive.

also from my previous post:

most j-dev games are not tech wonders and focus more on concepts and innovation which favors Wii. AA titles would take a hit graphic wise - that's it.

 

[scooby_dooby]

?

You're joking, right?

You do realize that, as it stands currently, Xbox360 is still behind Xbox at this point, and there are many systems which sold faster than Xbox through this point in its life...

Not kidding. How many consoles have moved 5million units 8 months after launch? None that I know of.

If you are talking about total systems sold, 360 is the fastest selling console ever.

 

[TheChefO]

Not kidding. How many consoles have moved 5million units 8 months after launch? None that I know of.

If you are talking about total systems sold, 360 is the fastest selling console ever.

I'm not sure on the exact timing but ps2 hit 6.4m in it's first year and I believe it launched in march (in Japan) (9mo)

Still mighty impressive numbers for MS and should continue to ramp aggressively this fall!

 

[Serenity Painted Death]

Not kidding. How many consoles have moved 5million units 8 months after launch? None that I know of.

If you are talking about total systems sold, 360 is the fastest selling console ever.

A note first: 360 has only sold ~3 million. MS has SHIPPED 5 million units to retailers ("sold" them). Slightly over 2 million in the U.S., slightly under a million in Europe, and ~140K or so in Japan. As for "moving" them I suppose you could mean "shipped" and you may very well be right (I have no clue), but you expressly said "SOLD" in the original post I replied to.

You might actually win this on a technicality, but it is hard to find data specific enough to be sure. The PS2 launched in March of 2000 in Japan, though I'm unsure if this was early or late march (so 9-10 months on the market), and did ~3.6 million sales. It launched in October in the U.S., which is in the 8 month interval, and sold out all ~500K units immediately, thus bringing the total to ~4.1 million or so (depending on the monthly breakdown in Japan for November and December, which I don't have). That is ~1.1 million more than Xbox360, in one less territory, and only including one month of one of the two territories involved.

November and December see some increased sales in Japan, but nothing like in the U.S., and they were likely still supply constrained anyway, especially considering the recent U.S. launch, so there is little reason to suspect that a greatly significant portion of those 3.6 million sales came in months exceeding the first 8 (November and December).

There isn't a single territory where the 8 month totals of the 360 exceed the corresponding eight month totals of the PS2, though 360 has the advantage of having launched in all three of them simultaneously while the PS2 (I could dig up some other system data too, but it is much much harder) launched separately. In fact, there isn't a single territory where the 360's current pace is above Xbox's, though it will obviously do better in the long run.

 

[TheChefO]

A note first: 360 has only sold ~3 million. MS has SHIPPED 5 million units to retailers ("sold" them). Slightly over 2 million in the U.S., slightly under a million in Europe, and ~140K or so in Japan. As for "moving" them I suppose you could mean "shipped" and you may very well be right (I have no clue), but you expressly said "SOLD" in the original post I replied to.

Why are you harping on shipped vs sold? Does Sony talk of sold numbers to customers? Then why should MS?

The point of these numbers is to get an idea for potential sales in an easily tracked measure. Obviously MS does not want to track down every retailer and rely on their actual sales data but you can bet that retailers are not going to sit on mass amount of stock that isn't moving and then purchase more from MS (shipped).

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

There isn't a single territory where the 8 month totals of the 360 exceed the corresponding eight month totals of the PS2, though 360 has the advantage of having launched in all three of them simultaneously while the PS2 (I could dig up some other system data too, but it is much much harder) launched separately. In fact, there isn't a single territory where the 360's current pace is above Xbox's, though it will obviously do better in the long run.

Are you arguing because you prefer Sony, or are you arguing because you want to prove Scooby wrong?

Whats with the 'single territory' refinement? I didn't see Scooby limiting his statements to 'a single territory', and the 360 launched in multiple territories for a specific reason.

So the 360 could have sold more units in NA if they hadn't done a worldwide launch. The importance of that distinction is what exactly? If the total units are there, that's all that matters.

It's actually probably more favorable to have equal or greater total units mixed across multiple markets rather than a singular one, which is why MS chose to do it that way, which is why Sony is going to try to do the same.

I really don't understand what you're trying to debate here.

 

[Serenity Painted Death]

I'm not speaking to MS or the language they've used to describe their shipped numbers.

Scooby claimed that MS had SOLD (I presume to consumers, though he may have actually been using the same shady language as MS) 5 million 360s, which is demonstrably false.

Now, they do claim 5 million "sales" but this is just an obtuse way of saying they've shipped 5 million (or "sold" to retailers -- ~3 million of which people have actually bought). The numbers I'm reporting in my previous post are actual SALES, not shipped numbers.

It is, in part, the very essence of this particular debate.


HEY GUYS PSP HAS SOLD ABOUT 20 MILLION UNITS WORLDWIDE. DS WHAT????

 

[TheChefO]

HEY GUYS PSP HAS SOLD ABOUT 20 MILLION UNITS WORLDWIDE. DS WHAT????

There goes that shady MS language again - pfft! The nerve of those guys!

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

Scooby claimed that MS had SOLD (I presume to consumers, though he may have actually been using the same shady language as MS) 5 million 360s, which is demonstrably false.

Now, they do claim 5 million "sales" but this is just an obtuse way of saying they've shipped 5 million (or "sold" to retailers -- ~3 million of which people have actually bought). The numbers I'm reporting in my previous post are actual SALES, not shipped numbers.

From Scooby's message:

How many consoles have moved 5million units 8 months after launch? None that I know of.

If you are talking about total systems sold, 360 is the fastest selling console ever.

It seems here that he most certainly makes a distinction between 'moved' and 'total systems sold'.

Are you unclear as to what he meant by those two phrases? It seems to me that by whatever definition Scooby applies to 'moved' and 'sold', he is still saying that the 360 has done better than any previous console.

Whether thats true or not, is an issue for people with links to that data.

 

[Serenity Painted Death]

Are you arguing because you prefer Sony, or are you arguing because you want to prove Scooby wrong?

Whats with the 'single territory' refinement? I didn't see Scooby limiting his statements to 'a single territory', and the 360 launched in multiple territories for a specific reason.

So the 360 could have sold more units in NA if they hadn't done a worldwide launch. The importance of that distinction is what exactly? If the total units are there, that's all that matters.

It's actually probably more favorable to have equal or greater total units mixed across multiple markets rather than a singular one, which is why MS chose to do it that way, which is why Sony is going to try to do the same.

I really don't understand what you're trying to debate here.

Scooby is implying that WORLDWIDE sales of 360 are the "fastest" ever, for any console. I disagree, though I may not be able to prove him wrong beyond the shadow of a doubt, as I don't have monthly breakdowns for Year 2000 in Japan, though you can draw a reasonable conclusion from the data.

Fact: Total 360 sales to consumers stand at ~3 million after 8 months (not the 5 million "shipped" figure)

Fact: In 9 months in Japan, PS2 did 3.6 million, and within 8 months of the Japanese launch, did another 500K+ in the U.S., totalling 4.1 million.

4.1 million > 3 million.

Unless you can make a reasonable argument that there were sales of 1.2 million or greater in Japan in November/December of 2000. Most unlikely.

 

[TheChefO]

Fact: Total 360 sales to consumers stand at ~3 million after 8 months (not the 5 million "shipped" figure)

Fact?? According to?? From what I understand the "sold to consumers" numbers available are not very accurate.

 

[Serenity Painted Death]

From Scooby's message:



It seems here that he most certainly makes a distinction between 'moved' and 'total systems sold'.

Are you unclear as to what he meant by those two phrases? It seems to me that by whatever definition Scooby applies to 'moved' and 'sold', he is still saying that the 360 has done better than any previous console.

Whether thats true or not, is an issue for people with links to that data.

You're not following along well. I'll help...

despite being the fastest selling console ever worldwide

This is his original statement. He clearly indicates SELLING. Again, maybe he is using super-pr-speak and means "sold to retailers, i.e. SHIPPED, but the clear implication is SOLD, to consumers (you know, you and me).

Not ONLY that, in the same post where he says "moved" which is ambiguous at best, he later clearly, again, indicates SOLD.

total systems sold

So, let's try again: number of 360s SOLD ~3 million. number of PS2s in the same time period: ~4.1 million.

He is incorrect.

They may very well have set a record for most SHIPPED consoles in eight months -- I have no idea, but that isn't what this was about.

 

[Serenity Painted Death]

Fact?? According to?? From what I understand the "sold to consumers" numbers available are not very accurate.

You have compelling evidence that NPD and other groups have missed OVER 2 MILLION SALES?

Please, present it.

MS original stated goals were SHIPMENTS of 4.5 to 5.5 million by the end of June. This was later slightly revised, but in the same general range. SHIPMENTS TO RETAILERS, NOT SYSTEMS SOLD TO CONSUMERS.

Now, it appears they've hit th magical 5 million SHIPMENTS, but where the confusion comes from is the wording used in the report. They say 5 million sold, but they mean to RETAIL OUTLETS (as in "SHIPPED").

This really isn't difficult.

NPD isn't perfectly accurate, but they're very good. They certainly haven't miised, oh, 1.5 million units. Media Create in Japan is likewise very accurate. Europe is much more in the dark, but sales of less than a million are all but confirmed. Just examine the shift in shipments between the regions. Prior to this quarter, shipments between the U.S. and Europe had a 1.6:1 ratio. Of the 1.8 million units SHIPPED this quarter, 1.5 million went to the U.S. and only ~200K to Europe. The ratio now stands at 7.5:1!!!! The response has been very lukewarm, and what little coherent data there is indicates sales are still safely south of a milion. Japan is right at ~145K, and that is a very accurate number, as is the ~2 million given by NPD.

 

[TheChefO]

but that isn't what this was about.

Agreed its about games that can save 360 in Japan. Can we drop this shipped/sold argument now and get back on topic?

 

[Serenity Painted Death]

Agreed its about games that can save 360 in Japan. Can we drop this shipped/sold argument now and get back on topic?

But there aren't any.

The hope will officially die, for good (if it hasn't already), once Blue Dragon flails miserably.

It is incredibly hard to break into the RPG scene in Japan, even on a console that is popular there. Not to mention that games are pretty much being outsourced to mediocre dev houses (Artoon, Cavia, etc) and Mistwalker is just PUBLISHING them mostly. Sakaguchi helps, a tiny bit, but the man hasn't directed a game in ages. In his latter days at Square, he simply signed checks for various aspects of development... he wasn't in control of them.

I know it seems impossible that MS could do worse in Japan with the 360 than they did with the Xbox, but stranger things have happened.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Not to mention that games are pretty much being outsourced to mediocre dev houses (Artoon, Cavia, etc) and Mistwalker is just PUBLISHING them mostly.

Yeah, that's a bit of cheek really. I don't know what deals MS struck, but these games seem to be from 'big names' only in name only, and other teams are actually writing them. That won't stop them being good or bad games of course, but selling a game on the weight of a name when that name might not be the creative power actually behind the game is a little misleading. I doubt there'll be details on how much input some of these named developers have.

 

[TheChefO]

Yeah, that's a bit of cheek really. I don't know what deals MS struck, but these games seem to be from 'big names' only in name only, and other teams are actually writing them. That won't stop them being good or bad games of course, but selling a game on the weight of a name when that name might not be the creative power actually behind the game is a little misleading. I doubt there'll be details on how much input some of these named developers have.

low risk - potential high reward. Makes good business sense at this point to just dip their toe in the 360 waters and feel the market out with a few titles. Agreed though - If MS is paying through the nose for a SE game and only gets Silpheed, "cheeky" does come to mind.

 

[Serenity Painted Death]

Did anyone actually manage to qualify what "saving" MS in Japan would consist of? In terms of units pushed?

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

You're not following along well. I'll help...

I'm following along perfectly well, thank you. If you notice, the message you are replying to here was posted by me prior to your sales figures.

Again, maybe he is using super-pr-speak and means "sold to retailers, i.e. SHIPPED....
Not ONLY that, in the same post where he says "moved" which is ambiguous at best, he later clearly, again, indicates SOLD.

Right. So it's a definitional disagreement, and when Scooby clarifies then we can see what numbers he is actually referring to. Which is what I said above.

Therefore, in the mean time, there's no need to act as if I'm not understanding the numbers or refuting them, or failing to follow along. At least not on a level any differently than your own, due to the fact the ambiguities are shared by us both.