I'm just unconvinced there's a market for the console
experience in a handheld though. At least not a massive one. The
handheld was born playing simple games. Those that offered more power to play more 'console' like games, like the Lynx and GameGear, didn't get anywhere. Sure, there were many factors involved, but people were happy enough playing Tetris over Sonic or Shadow of the Beast.
The nature of portable gaming is such that you don't normally want to be playing a game you can sink hours into. PSP's software sales sdon't support a strong console-on-the-go experience, although how much is down to piracy is an unknown at this point. eg. GT Mobile sold
2.2 million, a small fraction of what other GTs sold even factoring in install base differences.
I'd like to question you on these points in particular:
What defines the "console experience on a handheld" and why do you think that pre-iPhone the vast majority of gamers, both core and casual were happy to put money down on a NDS or PSP over playing tetris clones and snake on their mobile phone?
As far as i can see the only thing differentiating console (in general terms) and mobile games like those seen on the NDS and PSP (the successful ones at least) is the controls. NDS and PSP games have similar amounts of depth and content, just not as pretty and designed around simpler controls.
Whilst i agree with you that the handheld was born off small simpler games,
the market itself evolved so that the games that people started off playing on their gameboy eventually became deeper and more content rich on the GBA and then NDS. Such that now, in terms of mobile games that gross the most money, you're talking about games like Pokemon, that not only sell gangbusters but make their devs/pubs much more than a couple of cents a copy sold. I mean angry birds is great for five minutes but i'd like deeper richer games in my handheld experience.
Again you say that in a handheld experience you don't want games that you can sink hours into... i completely disagree! Games like Pokemon, Monster Hunter etc and all the big traditional handheld games, even the biggest iPhone games are fleshed out games that are addictive enough to let you sink hours into them if you want to. Games that are so simple and content sparse that you can't put time into if you want to are far too shallow and wouldn't even do well on the iPhone platform.
As i see it the only thing separating the NDS, 3DS, PSP, PSP2 and iDevices are their control interfaces. They are merely platforms for games and hundreds of millions of people have bought and played on Nintendo and Sony (collectively) dedicated gaming devices in the past because they clearly wanted more than simply, shoddy $2 shallow content-sparse games. I'm eager for Sony to try a gaming machine that brings control flexibility and power enough to provide a deep and rich gaming experience on the go. In the end it will be the software that will separate them as a dual-analogue FPS would be a solid example of a game genre that could do wonders for the PSP2. Yeah we've seen em before on the idevices and will likely see them on the 3DS too, but the control limitations will make the PSP2 the clear platform to own if you're into those types of games.
Right now i can think of hundreds of different game genres that could now work exceptionally well on a dual-anlogue handheld, much better than anywhere else. The market of these games has never really existed before however it would still be silly to think that it isn't there, even if it may or may not be significant.
Anyways, personally the only thing that turned me off my PSP was the control scheme and lack of solid JRPGs. I love my RPG time-sink games on portables. I bought FFVII and thought it was the perfect PSP game. If anything i'm hoping that Sony will realise the importance of jRPGs on handhelds and get those japs grinding out RPGs on PSP2. Especially since there's such a drought on the HD consoles.