Vega is huge and uses HBM.. why does it suck so badly compared to GP104?
Perhaps GP102 exists because a gaming-oriented GP100 would also suck compared to a GP104.
The closest chip there is to Vega in terms of FP16 throughput is GP100 (also a 300W chip clocking below 1.5GHz), which actually has a lower FP32/FP16 throughput. 2*FP16 probably doesn't come for free in the power and area departments and neither does HBCC. It uses HBM but it's HBM2 at close to 2Gbps and it's using 8-Hi stacks, both of which are unprecedented and could be pulling a lot of power. Vega FE's HBM stacks compared to Fiji's is 4x the memory density working at twice the frequency and twice the number of layers. It'll be interesting to compare power consumption and thermal performance between 8GB and 16GB Vega cards.
Current problems notwithstanding (much lower than expected texel fillrate, effective bandwidth and geometry performance in games, either of which
could still be solved through drivers), Vega's problem is that it's one chip competing with GP104+GP102+GP100.
It has to provide AMD with a foothold in the high-end videogame card
and as a high-end content creation card (lots of VRAM)
and as a high-end compute-oriented card (2*FP16, non-useless FP64). Fiji only addressed one of these markets.
On top of that it's being built on GlobalFoundries' 14FF, which seems to be hopelessly behind TSMC's 16FF+ in power/performance. And according to 7nm expectation from both foundries it doesn't look like tables will turn come 2018.
And yes, GV100 is less than half a year away, but given its ridiculous size, usage of TSMC's 12FF risk production and price to match. I don't think it'll be a replacement for GP100. It looks like an even higher-end offering for a more specific audience.
That said, despite AMD's bullish statements and rather poor marketing and communication, it would be a miracle if AMD's R&D had managed to develop a single GPU that could take on 3 different chips at a time and beat them all at their own game.
And, of course, Vega is late. Vega is
very late, I'd bet AMD's initial plans were to be selling Vega chips in late Q1/early Q2.