All purpose Sales and Sales Rumours and Anecdotes [2019 Edition]

Discussion in 'Console Industry' started by AlBran, Feb 4, 2019.

  1. Shifty Geezer

    Shifty Geezer uber-Troll!
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    Yeah, at the bottom end, that's completely untapped. There's no $200 console. PS2 sold at $150 and below. Dunno what it'd take to reach that price point, but I hope Sony manages it just to see what the final hardware sales are!
     
  2. DieH@rd

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    PS3 never went under $200, and they had to remove HDD to even approach it.

    I don't think PS4 will go below it, and even getting near will be tough. I expect that in late 2020, 7nm PS4 slim will land at $250, Pro will be removed from shelves, and PS5 will enter into its $400[+] slot.
     
  3. Shortbread

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    This isn't exactly true. Stores such as Walmart and Target carried the 12GB PS3 for $149 on competing against Amazons $189 pricing (which, soon went for $149 as well). Officially from Sony maybe not, but that didn't keep retailers from doing it.

    A $199 PS4 is going to happen. Maybe not next-year or even the year after, but it will happen during it's lifetime. And anyone thinking PS5/XB2 are going to be $399 can keep on trucking by.

    A sku pricing option as seen below, would carry Sony in the long-run towards retaining/gaining users across a spectrum of sku's (see below).

    Ultra Slim PS4: $199 (Froogle to moderate gamers looking for a cheap gaming solution, with a large established game library).
    PS4 Pro: $299 (moderate gamers looking for a large established game library, and having the option towards higher resolutions and framerates).
    PS5: $499 (early adopters, hardcore gamers, gamers looking for the next-generation of gaming, and having the option on playing their prior game library).
     
  4. Globalisateur

    Globalisateur Globby
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    Q1 FY2019 (April - June): 3.2 million units sold, flat YoY (more than 1 million more than Switch), hardware revenue up 2.7% YoY.

    How is that even possible ?
     
  5. Shortbread

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    Great 2013 E3 conference... check!
    Great games... check!
    Positive reviews and word of mouth... check!
    Great strides in other countries, other than the US, Europe, and Japan... check!
     
  6. mrcorbo

    mrcorbo Foo Fighter
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    What I find most interesting is that the trend of the last generation of the overall rate of purchases per console owner declining over time has continued.

    So another way to look at those numbers is:

    2015: 40 million cumulative hardware units sold lead to 160M software unit sales for that year (4/unit).
    2016: 60 million cumulative hardware units sold lead to 220M software unit sales for that year (3.67/unit).
    2017: 80 million cumulative hardware units sold lead to 250M software unit sales for that year (3.13/unit).
    2018: 100 million cumulative hardware units sold lead to 260M software unit sales for that year (2.6/unit).

    The takeaway being, the conventional wisdom of the early adopter/enthusiast who is most likely to buy a system at launch being more valuable on a per-owner basis than the waves of buyers who come after continues to be validated by actual sales numbers.
     
  7. mrcorbo

    mrcorbo Foo Fighter
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    Larger % of Pros sold?
     
  8. Shortbread

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  9. Globalisateur

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    Yes, but I thought there were going to be like 20 or 30% down YoY based on NPD and media create data. Xbox being down 48% YoY for the same quarter.
     
  10. Shortbread

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    That's because NPD isn't reflective of worldwide sales - which you should already know. So anything happening outside of America (growth or decline) isn't factored by the NPD group. Meaning, PS4 sales can be down in the US, yet, be up overall worldwide.

    The only reliable information (worldwide) will come directly from Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo. So, Xbox being down 48% is more reflective of Microsoft's Quarterly report worldwide, not specifically just the US.
     
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  11. mrcorbo

    mrcorbo Foo Fighter
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    It's the first thing I thought of to explain the higher ASP indicated by flat unit sales with higher revenue. <shrugs>
     
  12. DieH@rd

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    PS4 gets all the newest AAA games, and Sony invests a lot into localizations for so manysmaller territories. That makes them defacto winner with casual players who are interested in modern games. And at this stage in its lifecycle, PS4 is sold to more casual gamers and to gamers who are attracted by some shiny new big AAA game from IP that they love [I presume that FF7R will sell a lot of PS4s]. Sony is the ONLY publisher in the world who localizes games for Croatian [which is compatible with players in Bosnia, Serbia and Montenegro], or, they are one of the very rare publishers that localizes their games for Middle East.

    On the other hand, Nintendo again posted a interesting stat: ~75% of their software sales is 1st party. That tells me that they still have serious issue with offering broad multiplatform support. On Switch they have 1st party and lots of ports of smaller games [and once in a quarter, maybe a port of some bigger new game].
     
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  13. Shortbread

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    Post lifted from ArmGunar at Era.

    Sony released their Analyst and Investor Briefing Q&A

    Highlights :
    • Sony is positive about Q1 performance despite decrease in Revenue & Operating Profit
    • Decrease expected because Days Gone only vs God of War + Detroit last Q1
    • They expected lower PS4 sales due to competitor but sales are still decent
    • Costs for next-gen are trending as planned
    • Sony do not plan to be aggressive with PS4... "focusing instead on raising the level of penetration while securing a profit"
    • Sales of 1st party games are more or less expected
    • Sales of Add-on and F2P titles were well below their expectations
    • Especially sales of F2P (microtransactions) declining sharply during Q1
    • PS+ Members numbers declined slightly but were largely expected, outlook is modest growth for full year
    • No major downside risk for the H2's outlook but they keep a close eye on sales trends and geopolitical risks
    • Operating Profit for Full Year remains unchanged partly thanks to "a degree of cost cutting" by "greater organizational flexibility"

    Question : Although the Game segment reported a decline in profit for Q1 versus the same quarter of last fiscal year, when first-party software sales were strong, profit still looked reasonably good. How much of the previously stated 30 billion yen increase in development costs related to the nextgeneration console hit the books in Q1? Could you give us an idea of whether you expect this cost growth to be more weighted to 2H or 1H?
    Question : You mentioned in your speech that demand for Free-to-Play (F2P) and other third-party software in the G&NS segment was somewhat weak. Could you give us more details on the current situation and how we should view the risks into the second half?
    Question : Regarding forecast changes in the Game segment, you revised the sales outlook down by 100 billion yen, which I understand is largely because of hardware and free-to-play games, but despite the change in forex assumption and the lower sales outlook, your profit outlook remains unchanged. Has there been any change in outlook on costs or profitability?
     
  14. BRiT

    BRiT (╯°□°)╯
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    So less suckers buying cosmetic packs for Fortnite.
     
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  15. AzBat

    AzBat Agent of the Bat
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    Same suckers but they're buying them on other platforms?

    Tommy McClain
     
  16. BRiT

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    Maybe on Mobile or Switch? As MS also specified lower than usual in the F2P area like Sony did.
     
  17. AzBat

    AzBat Agent of the Bat
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    Yeah. My thought was that Battle Pass & V Bucks spent on other platform's was still accessible on PS4 & Xbox. Makes you wonder which platforms get what share, if any.

    Tommy McClain
     
  18. DSoup

    DSoup meh
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    Costs related to PS5 pre-production and developer support will also be ramping up now. Those costs are also coming out of operating profit.
     
  19. iroboto

    iroboto Daft Funk
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    Yup; surprised you could see it without needing a visual graph of some sort. But yes; TCV of early adopters are much more valuable than later on. Which is why in other industries such as telecomm; they are willing to subsidize massive amounts of the phone just to get sign ups.

    Each year when the next big iPhone was going to release; carriers would stock pile millions of iPhone even with risk of being unable to sell them all because the cost of the phone is only $800 ish; but the TCV for a 3 year contract is 5000-6000. Failing to provide the phone is a huge revenue loss when customers are desperate to have the phone day 1 they’ll shop other carriers to get it.

    Phone plans start to change rapidly after that first 6 months of sales because the next set of phones are coming. Etc.
     
  20. mrcorbo

    mrcorbo Foo Fighter
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    This just adds another dimension to something I had previously dug into.

    New console owners also buy games at a faster rate than owners who have owned their console for longer. Combining these two, the early adopter wave at launch is made up of consumers who are not only inclined to buy more games but are also at the peak of their games-buying behavior. It really drives home how important the launch period is. It's possible to recover from a poor launch, as Sony did with the PS3, but it's an uphill climb.
     
    #220 mrcorbo, Aug 6, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2019
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