All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+

[Rangers]

Thursday April 17. Yeah, feels a little later than usual to me too.

Tommy McClain

Couple reasons, March was a 5 week NPD month for one vs the usual 4. Actually I suppose that's the only reason, we had to wait 5 weeks between reports instead of 4.

I believe officially NPD releases the first thursday of the month that falls past a certain date, which I dont recall, but it's something like the 10th or the 12th. I used to think it was just the 2nd thursday of the month, but that's not correct.

 

[Rangers]

Sony announces 7 million PS4's sold as of April 6. http://blog.us.playstation.com/2014/04/16/ps4-hits-7-million-globally/#sf2613495

According to GAF they announced 6 million as of March 2.

So a little over a month for 1 million.

They also noted sold through.

BTW this means they have passed Wii U easily. Wii U had shipped 5.86m as of the end of December. Given it's paltry sales they probably not too far past 6 million yet.

Also I looked it up wonder whether Japan launch goosed these sales, apparently not too much as PS4 launched in Japan Feb 22. So the first 10 days of Japanese launch would have been outside this window.

So that could give us some NPD clue. I'd guess it means at least 400k in March NPD?

Edit: I was able to suss out Japanese Media Create PS4 sales during March 2-April 6. It's 132k. This is exact as Sony seems to be using Media Create weeks, give or take a day.

So outside Japan sales in that period=868k.

Tomorrows NPD will help flesh out these numbers some more even. But again to me it points at at least a 400k NPD.

You can roughly estimate One sales here as well. A gaffer posted that for the first 3m sales MS announced, it worked out the USA/Rest of World One sales split was 60/40 (given known NPD sales in that period). I haven't bothered to confirmed this but assume it's true. So if we reasonably assume that ratio roughly continues, AND we assume a 400K XBO NPD tmrw, we come up with a guesstimate of 1.328 worldwide XBO sales end of Dec through end of March. Which they previously announced 3m on the end of Dec. So you could estimate ~4.3m at the end of March. Pending tomorrows NPD number for a more accurate March number, of course.

 

[London Geezer]

Wow that's amazing. How long did it take ps3 and ps2 to sell 7 million units?

 

[Rangers]

Apparently Sony also announced 20.5m PS4 game sales.

20.5/7=2.93 tie ratio?

Also a gaffer made this

Wii U Shipments:

1 month, 14 days: December 31st, 2012: 3.06 million
4 months, 14 days: March 31st, 2013: 3.45 million
7 months, 13 days: June 30th, 2013: 3.61 million
10 months, 13 days: September 30th, 2013: 3.91 million
1 year, 1 month, 14 days: December 30th, 2013: 5.86 million


PS4 Installbase:

2 days - November 16th, 2013 - 1 million
17 days - December 1st, 2013 - 2.1 million
1 month, 14 days - December 28th, 2013 - 4.2 million
2 months, 25 days - February 8th, 2014 - 5.3 million
3 months, 16 days - March 2nd, 2014 - 6.0 million
4 months, 23 days - April 6th, 2014 - 7.0 million

Edit: might as well throw in other consoles. Credit Aquamarine from Neogaf.

Wii Shipments:

1 month, 13 days - December 31st, 2006 - 3.19 million
4 months, 13 days - March 31st, 2007 - 5.84 million
7 months, 12 days - June 30th, 2007 - 9.27 million
10 months, 12 days - September 30th, 2007 - 13.17 million
1 year, 1 month, 13 days - December 31st, 2007 - 24.45 million



PS3 Shipments:

1 month, 21 days - December 31st, 2006 - 1.7 million
4 months, 21 days - March 31st, 2007 - 3.5 million
7 months, 20 days - June 30th, 2007 - 4.2 million
10 months, 20 days - September 30th, 2007 - 5.5 million
1 year, 1 month, 21 days - December 31st, 2007 - 10.4 million

Dat Wii...almost 25 million in first two holidays. Makes sense as they sold most of their ~100m in first 3-4 years then flamed out.

Wonder what PS4 can produce in that time?

PS4 has sort of caught up to demand, but in a few short months they'll need to be ready for holiday sales all over again. Better be churning them out. I'm guessing it's a little more difficult to produce than Wii. If nothing else that's a vast amount of GDDR5.

 

[djskribbles]

Wow that's amazing. How long did it take ps3 and ps2 to sell 7 million units?

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=108432465#post108432465

Dunno about the PS2, but it sold-through more than the Wii's shipments in the same time period, and double the PS3's. The Wii was supply constrained for a long time though IIRC. The PS4's availability is much better, but there are still some large markets that seem to be supply constrained, like France and Germany.

Considering they sold ~868k outside of Japan, I'm guessing they sold ~400-440k in the US. Same goes for XB1, with all of the discounts, bundles and having no supply issues. Wouldn't be surprised if either 'won' March NPD.

 

[Shortbread]

7 million worldwide, congrats Sony!

 

[Billy Idol]

So much to: "console gaming is dead"

 

[Wynix]

It's not dead, it has just gotten smaller.

The PS4 has a solid chance of beating the Wii's 7 month (9.27Mil) record, the 10 month record is going to be hard to beat, but the 1 year 1 month record is impossible to achieve as the Wii exploded at that point.

 

[Billy Idol]

Well, the PS4 needs games imo. AAA exclusives, also an addicting MP game. It is a bit empty at the moment and there is not much to play, so I am quite surprised about the sales numbers (why are people buying a PS4? Is it just because it is sold out and this triggers a psychological demand in the mass?)

 

[Billy Idol]

It's not dead, it has just gotten smaller.

The PS4 has a solid chance of beating the Wii's 7 month (9.27Mil) record, the 10 month record is going to be hard to beat, but the 1 year 1 month record is impossible to achieve as the Wii exploded at that point.

Is it smaller? X4 are doing quite well imo...

 

[Brad Grenz]

Well, the PS4 needs games imo. AAA exclusives, also an addicting MP game. It is a bit empty at the moment and there is not much to play, so I am quite surprised about the sales numbers (why are people buying a PS4? Is it just because it is sold out and this triggers a psychological demand in the mass?)

The masses haven't gerrymandered the catalog to disqualify most of what's available from consideration like you think they should. It has a larger game library than the Xbox One, it costs less, the biggest games look better on it, the subscription service has far more value and costs less and Sony didn't spend most of last year poisoning the market against their product. The masses are just making a rational purchasing decision based on their priorities.

 

[Rangers]

Or mostly, it's $100 less (and arguably more powerful)... all the other points are debatable. I think PS4 sells on future potential more than anything, and a disposable purchase price point, which I think due to inflation, 399 is becoming (think how the Nexus 5 is considered an uber cheap smartphone because it's only $350, whereas a Galaxy S 5 off contract is $650). And, the brand is very strong in continental Europe.

Would be interesting how a $349 or less (without Kinect) XBO would sell, commiserate with the hardware value. Again you'd be in disposable purchase price point territory. I guess they could not keep them on shelves. E3 will be VERY interesting as to MS future pricing strategy.

 

[DieH@rd]

Great sales, and the console supply is still far from good in a lot of countries [especially EU].

Today is NPD day.

 

[-tkf-]

Or mostly, it's $100 less (and arguably more powerful)... all the other points are debatable. I think PS4 sells on future potential more than anything, and a disposable purchase price point, which I think due to inflation, 399 is becoming (think how the Nexus 5 is considered an uber cheap smartphone because it's only $350, whereas a Galaxy S 5 off contract is $650). And, the brand is very strong in continental Europe.

Would be interesting how a $349 or less (without Kinect) XBO would sell, commiserate with the hardware value. Again you'd be in disposable purchase price point territory. I guess they could not keep them on shelves. E3 will be VERY interesting as to MS future pricing strategy.

This is one for the other thread?

The numbers are clear, PS4 is winning should have could have is replaced with wishful thinking for the future. The titanfall give a way did indicate serious problems.

 

[-tkf-]

Well, the PS4 needs games imo. AAA exclusives, also an addicting MP game. It is a bit empty at the moment and there is not much to play, so I am quite surprised about the sales numbers (why are people buying a PS4? Is it just because it is sold out and this triggers a psychological demand in the mass?)

Because it's the best console as consumer purchase prove? You just need 2 or 3 good games that the customer wants to warrant a purchase. And as the ps4 sales clearly shows, they are there.
And Sony hasn't seen the end, come Xmas they will release a multitude of blockbusters to boost sales to new levels. They have every imaginable advantage.

 

[Nesh]

Or mostly, it's $100 less (and arguably more powerful)... all the other points are debatable. I think PS4 sells on future potential more than anything, and a disposable purchase price point, which I think due to inflation, 399 is becoming (think how the Nexus 5 is considered an uber cheap smartphone because it's only $350, whereas a Galaxy S 5 off contract is $650). And, the brand is very strong in continental Europe.

Would be interesting how a $349 or less (without Kinect) XBO would sell, commiserate with the hardware value. Again you'd be in disposable purchase price point territory. I guess they could not keep them on shelves. E3 will be VERY interesting as to MS future pricing strategy.

Certainly price plays a role. We cant gauge how much it contributes compared to the other advantages. But I bet is the number 1 factor which combined with the other advantages makes it the product with the best value.
The XB1 just like the PS4, is also supposed to be selling based on both its unique features (camera, snap and HDMI in) and its future potential. Its where MS have put their bets hoping that would steal the thunder away from competition.
The reality is that the perceived value of these extras that excuse the extra price are not valued that high by the consumer to form a demand as strong as the PS4's.

I am sure the HDMI in is pretty much ignored by the majority. The camera has the most value when its used as a method of seamless control of all your audiovisual devices. If the HDMI is ignored, its utility is reduced and its value falls since the device inter-connectivity is not there. Most people dont even have appropriate access to these features even if they want to

People also already got a taste of Kinect 1 which was not as good as Kinect 2. The experience was disappointing on the 360. Boring and negligible. The pre-purchase impression is negative because of this. The post-purchase impression most likely is positive, the question is, how are most people using the console? How much utility does the camera get when someone spends most time watching movies and playing games? These moments dont require much voice command usage. Most time XB1's features also ignore that there is an expensive camera there. Kinect 2 games continue to disappoint.

It all bolds down to the main experience that requires more usage/hours. Games and movies. The price and primary functions are PS4 advantages considering this.

I presume there is a larger selection of games to choose from in digital store (F2P and indie games), PSN does not impose a paywall for most functions, games run better and there is a larger selection of announced games as far as I know. The PS4's latest exclusive game is also much more impressive than XB1's latest semi-exclusive game. Infamous SS warrants better a next gen purchase and keeps the momentum on higher levels. The XB1 killed the momentum. Titanfall did not become the next Halo or the next COD. It plays well but is not the killer app you d expect from a next gen console. It exists on the 360 and on a PC which most potential buyers already own.

 

[MrFox]

There was no reason to expect sales numbers to be any different, it's in line with most analysts predictions. The price difference remains, the power advantage remains, and many consumers won't consider switching their purchase intent even after MS changed course about their DRM, focus on TV and Kinect, there's a lot to clean up, and a lot of convincing to do. On the PS4 side, a couple of delayed AAA games can't have much of an impact, at least no enough to deviate from the predictions. If major games were canceled there would be a bigger argument here.

The early-adopters season is coming to an end, the big test is the second year. It's a less geeky crowd and this time they won't buy based on future possibilities, or future games, or promises of magical server-side stuff. Real stuff has to be delivered. E3 was the deadline for MS to establish their vision and they missed it spectacularly... the next deadline to sell their new-and-improved recipe is the next E3.

 

[DrJay24]

The masses haven't gerrymandered the catalog to disqualify most of what's available from consideration like you think they should. It has a larger game library than the Xbox One, it costs less, the biggest games look better on it, the subscription service has far more value and costs less and Sony didn't spend most of last year poisoning the market against their product. The masses are just making a rational purchasing decision based on their priorities.

As a PS4 owner, I only purchase $60 retail games that are PS4 only. There is nothing to play! Of course with that criteria, no console out besides the Wii U is worth owning.

 

[Rangers]

Some guy on GAF with claimed NPD access has dropped the first hint. XB1 software as a whole outsold PS4 software in March he said. Same as February. He said both sold "a lot" more software (Infamous/TF I suppose), and as for the gap in software sales in favor of X1, it grew "a little".

So, it could point at a possible X1 hardware win but it's nothing conclusive at all really. As noted XB1 software sales was greater last month without it winning hardware (although it was close). Probably a close battle this month.

Edit: he now said this about the XO-PS4 software sales gap

Last month was like XBO 1.03 : 1 PS4, which was a tiny lead.

This month, the gap is a bit bigger, but still not even as big as your example.

The example he was referring to was 1.2:1.

Edit2: Aaaaand PS4 won March. Let the Neogaf party begin!

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...art-but-ps4-leads-hardware-again-in-march-npd

 

[Rangers]

BTW NPD does NOT count bundled software, unlike Chart Track. So Titanfall's win is a bit more impressive imo. It won obviously only on the strength of stand-alone sales.