All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+

[DuckThor Evil]

Really? You expect history to repeat even though PS4 is not releasing one year later with higher price like PS3 did, and after MS royally fucked up not only their marketing, services, SKUs, but also pricing and release across much of the world [tier2/3 deployment]?

MS is loosing everywhere, and only in US and UK they are at least having success in fighting back the PS4.

He is talking about the ratios of Xbox consoles in US vs rest of the world. The fact that One is doing worse compared to PS4 is not the topic, but whether One is doing relatively worse outside of US compared to 360?

You have to remember that the 360 blasted the PS3 in US and now PS4 has sold more than One in US. The shift in marketshare between the companies is very large in that market as well.

I personally think Ranger's reasoning and numbers behind his statement that the ratio is still somewhere around 50-55%, are quite solid. 55% sounds good to me

 

[Deleted member 86764]

What are the total sales in the US? What about an estimation for total WW sales?

 

[djskribbles]

XB1 sales in the US are ~7.4M. My guess is sales are anywhere between 12.5-13.5M.

 

[Deleted member 86764]

Based on that Rangers is correct ~55% US

 

[djskribbles]

Rangers originally said 50% and I argued closer to 60%. I think 55-60% would be a good guess, hence why I think the XB1 is currently somewhere between 12.5-13.5M WW. I'm guessing that the PS4 is somewhere between 24-25M by now.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

XB1 sales in the US are ~7.4M. My guess is sales are anywhere between 12.5-13.5M.

That sounds close albeit a bit low for XBO considering it is projected to be ~20 million LTD by the end of 2015 by some market analysts. Considering Xbox has traditionally done exceptionally well during the holiday seasons, then another 6.5-7.5 million for the 2nd half of 2015 is potentially doable. That's still a tad much though, so it wouldn't surprise me if the numbers that analysts are looking at point to XBO being around 13.5-14.5 million worldwide. 5.5 million - 6.5 million for the 2nd half of 2015 seems a lot more reasonable for market projections. Basically, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the US made up anywhere from 45%-60% of XBO WW sales.

Something people need to realize (this isn't directed at the post I'm replying to), is that XBO being stomped by PS4 has no bearing on whether XBO sold better than X360. What it does mean is that PS4 is selling phenomenally better than PS3. Hence ratios of PS4:XBO have absolutely zero bearing on whether XBO is doing better than X360. So it is quite possible that despite going from 2:1 (PS3:X360)in Spain to 9:1 (PS4:XBO) in Spain using Chris1515's numbers, XBO might still be beating X360.

Just for funsies and taken with a grain of salt. At VGChartz, the percentage of X360 sales that were NA is ~57.11%. The percentage of XBO sales that are from NA is ~61.41%. Not a huge difference. Their X360 numbers are likely within the ballpark for accuracy. Their XBO numbers may or may not be.

Regards,
SB

 

[djskribbles]

That sounds close albeit a bit low for XBO considering it is projected to be ~20 million LTD by the end of 2015 by some market analysts. Considering Xbox has traditionally done exceptionally well during the holiday seasons, then another 6.5-7.5 million for the 2nd half of 2015 is potentially doable. That's still a tad much though, so it wouldn't surprise me if the numbers that analysts are looking at point to XBO being around 13.5-14.5 million worldwide. 5.5 million - 6.5 million for the 2nd half of 2015 seems a lot more reasonable for market projections. Basically, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the US made up anywhere from 45%-60% of XBO WW sales.

I don't think 12.5-13.5 is low at all. 'Analysts' (who are always right, right? ) are probably projecting 20M shipped, when my guess is sold-through. XB1 is probably between 13-14M shipped as of the end of June, leaving 6-7M for the rest of the year, which is do-able for sure.

There's no way it's anywhere near 45%... that's nearing PS4 numbers.

Something people need to realize (this isn't directed at the post I'm replying to), is that XBO being stomped by PS4 has no bearing on whether XBO sold better than X360. What it does mean is that PS4 is selling phenomenally better than PS3. Hence ratios of PS4:XBO have absolutely zero bearing on whether XBO is doing better than X360. So it is quite possible that despite going from 2:1 (PS3:X360)in Spain to 9:1 (PS4:XBO) in Spain using Chris1515's numbers, XBO might still be beating X360.

I agree last gen splits have little to no relevance to this gen, Xbox included. But we also don't know that the PS4's success is the sole reason for the increase in splits between PS/XB this gen vs last either... it could very possibly be that as well as the XB1 performing poorer in EUR. Remember XB1 started late in a lot of countries in EU and it would be difficult for them to gain any traction once they launched in those countries. Just look at Japan; sure X360 never really took off there, but XB1 is tracking much lower than X360. It was pretty much dead on arrival.

Just for funsies and taken with a grain of salt. At VGChartz, the percentage of X360 sales that were NA is ~57.11%. The percentage of XBO sales that are from NA is ~61.41%. Not a huge difference. Their X360 numbers are likely within the ballpark for accuracy. Their XBO numbers may or may not be.

Regards,
SB

Not a reliable source, but their split is even higher than my 55-60%.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Not a reliable source, but their split is even higher than my 55-60%.

Does the reported NPD figures include Canadian sales? I don't remember. My guess about the percentages has Canada grouped with the rest of the world.

 

[djskribbles]

NPD US reports don't include Canada, they track Canada separately, as does VGChartz.
On VGChartz' main page, they say North America, but you can view the weekly HW sales and filter US sales only using this link.

But thanks for pointing that out... Buddha's numbers are indeed all of North America. Filtering US sales only using the link above with sales up to the week ending June 20th, US represents 52.5% of global X360 sales; XB1 is 56.7%. So they seem to agree with me. Using their percentage of 56.7 and NPD as a reference, global XB1 sales would be just over 13M as of the end of NPD's June reporting period.

 

[zed]

55-60%!!! I'm pretty sure its at least 2/3's based on all the news reports coming out of europe and the rest of the world

 

[Rangers]

MS quarterly report this afternoon...

They sold ~640k XBO over the quarter in NPD, so I'd predict a minimum ~1.2m XBO shipped perhaps (although the 50/50 ratio doesn't hold for any given quarter due to over/under shipped channel variances, it's still a good starting point). X360? No clue, but I want to say late NPD's have been like around 40k? So that'd be ~120k NPD/240k shipped.


Edit: The last 360 NPD figure I have is January at ~40k.

So probably like 1.2-1.6m Xbox's shipped this quarter, very predictable.

Edit: Numbers even sooner! Apparently in 7 minutes from this edit. (4PM EST)

 

[AzBat]

Total Xbox revenue grew 27% based on strong growth in consoles, Xbox Live transactions and first party games

http://news.microsoft.com/2015/07/2...re-results-drives-fourth-quarter-performance/

Tommy McClain

 

[Rangers]

And it's 1.4 million

· Surface revenue increased 117% to $888 million, driven by Surface Pro 3 and Surface 3 units sold. We launched Surface Pro 3 and Surface 3 in June 2014 and May 2015, respectively.

· Xbox Platform revenue increased $86 million or 10%, driven by higher volumes of consoles sold, offset in part by lower prices of Xbox Ones sold. We sold 1.4 million consoles in the fourth quarter compared to 1.1 million consoles during the prior year.

· Computing and Gaming Hardware revenue included an unfavorable foreign currency impact of approximately 6%.

. Xbox Live transactions revenue increased $205 million or 58%, reflecting increased users and revenue per user.

. First-party video games revenue increased $63 million or 62%. We acquired the Minecraft gaming franchise in November 2014.

Table of recent shipments from GAF for context

More and more over time the number of Xbox's shipped will just equal the number of Xbox One's shipped as 360 sales dwindle. Probably getting reasonably close to that point already, which is nice for data purposes. I wouldn't be surprised if 360 shipments this Q were only ~200k.

 

[djskribbles]

ZhugeEX at GAF estimates XB1 to be over 14M shipped (which is about what I guessed).

Actual sales could be quite a bit lower with the introduction of multiple SKUs, plus old AC bundles still floating around. XB1 could very well be under 13M sold.

Still, XB1 is doing pretty good in its own right. PS4 is just killing it.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Agreed. It's still doing better than X360, but the real test starts this coming Holiday season. At that point RROD is less of an issue on X360 and Halo 3 jump started sales a fair bit. It'll be interesting to see how things turn out.

The other interesting thing to see is how sales of PS4 do this Holiday season in the US with some of their big hitters being delayed. Looking at Zhuge's cumulative install base plot, the XBO massively closed the gap the last holiday season, but lost some of those gains in the ensuing months. If they have a similar jump this holiday season the XBO has the potential reduce the PS4 lead (in the US, NOT WW) significantly with an outside possibility of erasing it. I'm wondering if Sony will go aggressive with deals and pricing this Holiday season to prevent that from happening. In the US, as they don't need to do so in most other parts of the world.

Regards,
SB

 

[DieH@rd]

MS will make sure Xbone will win in the US in November and December with insane prices and bundles. But that's only US, Sony is much more pushing for a worldwide domination.

 

[djskribbles]

Sony were pretty passive last holiday season and were perhaps caught off-guard. I think they will be a little more aggressive this year. I agree that all they care about is WW dominance, but I think they still want to keep the cumulative lead in the US, too. There's no doubt that MS will have some insane deals so Sony is going to have to step it up this year compared to last.

Sony may not have any heavy hitters in terms of exclusives, but they have marketing rights for the majority of the upcoming big third-party games like CoD, Battlefront, AC, Destiny and MGS V. If Sony offers some good bundles of their own, they could very well match MS this holiday season while having even fewer exclusives last year.

 

[goonergaz]

I don't see why Sony will 'have' to do anything, WW the PS4 is trumping PS3 - from their PoV all markets are doing significantly better than last gen, US to a lesser extent, but they are close with XBO who are doing everything they can to keep up.

Sony have some good bundles coming up and whilst I fully expect MS to take the holiday Sony will have Uncharted round the corner.

 

[Deleted member 86764]

I dunno, I think Sony actually DO need to provide some kind of bundles/price reduction if they want to stay ahead in the US; Xbox One really isn't that far behind and it's got one of the largest entertainment franchises coming out in a few months (Halo).

I wouldn't be surprised is Microsoft pull ahead in the US by the end of the year. If that happens you'll be hearing an awful lot of PR coming from them. We generally hear an awful lot more about US sales compared to anything else and in the minds of a lot of people that could mean that Xbox is 'winning'.

Regardless it's all good for competition.

 

[Rangers]

Rangers originally said 50% and I argued closer to 60%. I think 55-60% would be a good guess, hence why I think the XB1 is currently somewhere between 12.5-13.5M WW. I'm guessing that the PS4 is somewhere between 24-25M by now.

My guess is ~15 million on XBO (I see even Zhuge on GAF is now estimating XBO is over 14 million, any sophisticated look at the numbers should conclude roughly the same). But the easiest way is just double LTD NPD which I think is around 7.5 million for XBO. The other method to try to check it is to assume 360 shipments=ps3 shipments for all the quarters MS hasn't reported 360 recently, and that concludes pretty much exactly the same thing, ~15 million.

PS3 did 400k last quarter for what it's worth. Compare that to my estimate 360 may have done as little as 240k this quarter. But I bet PS3 will come in more like 300k this quarter.

PS4 I haven't been keeping super up to date with. But we know it was at 22.3 million...and I forgot Sony actually gives us those numbers LOL. Considering they shipped 2.4 PS4 last quarter, then yeah 24-25 (maybe closer to 25) when they announce soon is a no brainer.