All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+
- Thread starter Rangers
- Start date
- Status
djskribbles
Legend
via GAF. The first part isn't surprising I guess, since it has been a trend of late.creamsugar said:
Last edited by a moderator:
^^ Yikes!!
Probably means PS4 won by >40-60k since thats what 360 usually sells.
If we can guesstimate XBO+PS4=~380k, then maybe it's 230 k PS4 170k XBO or something like that. If we take MS PR literally (which is probably a bad idea imo) to mean their weekly sales have at least not dropped any from Jun, that puts a XBO floor of ~160k.
If we can guesstimate XBO+PS4=~380k, then maybe it's 230 k PS4 170k XBO or something like that. If we take MS PR literally (which is probably a bad idea imo) to mean their weekly sales have at least not dropped any from Jun, that puts a XBO floor of ~160k.
djskribbles
Legend
Sales/week in June:
PS3 - 8.4k
X360 - 12.4k
PS4 - 53.8k
XB1 - 39.4k
Wii U - 28k
If we go by sales/week and extrapolate to 4 weeks, we get:
PS3 - 33.6k
X360 - 49.6k
PS4 - 215.2k
XB1 - 157.6k
Wii U - 112k
However, there were some noteworthy events/releases that probably affected the sales rates this month:
Wii U - Mario Kart effect wearing out.
XB1 - Kinectless SKU effect wearing out, but countered by the Destiny beta.
X360 - Boost from the Destiny beta.
PS4 - Possible boost of the release of TLoU.
PS3 - Pretty much nothing noteworthy, so I assume roughly the same, or maybe a slight drop.
We also know that:
PS3 + PS4 > Wii U + XB1
PS4 > X360 + XB1
PS4 + XB1 = 384k
MS' 'continued momentum' PR
Based on that, my guesses are:
PS3 - 30-35k
X360 - 55-60k
PS4 - 225-230k
XB1 - 155-160k
Wii U - 85-90k
Yeah, I was bored.
PS3 - 8.4k
X360 - 12.4k
PS4 - 53.8k
XB1 - 39.4k
Wii U - 28k
If we go by sales/week and extrapolate to 4 weeks, we get:
PS3 - 33.6k
X360 - 49.6k
PS4 - 215.2k
XB1 - 157.6k
Wii U - 112k
However, there were some noteworthy events/releases that probably affected the sales rates this month:
Wii U - Mario Kart effect wearing out.
XB1 - Kinectless SKU effect wearing out, but countered by the Destiny beta.
X360 - Boost from the Destiny beta.
PS4 - Possible boost of the release of TLoU.
PS3 - Pretty much nothing noteworthy, so I assume roughly the same, or maybe a slight drop.
We also know that:
PS3 + PS4 > Wii U + XB1
PS4 > X360 + XB1
PS4 + XB1 = 384k
MS' 'continued momentum' PR
Based on that, my guesses are:
PS3 - 30-35k
X360 - 55-60k
PS4 - 225-230k
XB1 - 155-160k
Wii U - 85-90k
Yeah, I was bored.
Last edited by a moderator:
djskribbles
Legend
Yeah, I edited the Wii U's range a bit lower. Regardless if it's 85-90 or 83k, it doesn't go against any of the facts. I think those are more or less the numbers, +/- ~5k.
edit: I dunno where the PS4+XB1=384k came from, but clearly that was wrong.
edit: I dunno where the PS4+XB1=384k came from, but clearly that was wrong.
Considerable drop for PS4 and small drop for XB1. Must have been from the Destiny bundle, and the fact that July is generally a slow month. Still, I guessed 215k/140k respectively, so lower than I thought.Aquamarine said:
Last edited by a moderator:
PS4 June 53.8k/week
PS4 July 46.75k/week
13% decline
XBO June 39.4k/week
XBO July 32.75k/week
17% decline
Just kind of weak numbers everywhere including I'm betting software looks atrocious since Nintendo said a title selling 85k was 5th on individual SKU. Betting TLOU did 200-300k.
I guess maybe PC and mobile is eating consoles....question may be is enough going to remain left over to be a viable business?
And I guess still PS4 and XBO are WAY ahead of PS3 and 360 at this point, for now.
PS4 July 46.75k/week
13% decline
XBO June 39.4k/week
XBO July 32.75k/week
17% decline
Just kind of weak numbers everywhere including I'm betting software looks atrocious since Nintendo said a title selling 85k was 5th on individual SKU. Betting TLOU did 200-300k.
I guess maybe PC and mobile is eating consoles....question may be is enough going to remain left over to be a viable business?
And I guess still PS4 and XBO are WAY ahead of PS3 and 360 at this point, for now.
Please compare to previous July's, especially launch July's. Low numbers themselves aren't going to point to other factors being an influence because it might just be normal.
Monthly update XOne vs 360 gen over gen
360
Nov 2005 326k
Dec 281k
Jan 249k
Feb 161k
March 192k
April 295k
May 221k
June 277k
July 206k
Total after 9 months: 2208k
X1
Nov 13 909k (+583)
Dec 13 908k (+627)
Jan 14 141k (-108)
Feb 14 258k (+97)
March 14 311k (+119)
April 14 115k (-180)
May 14 76k (-145)
June 14 197k (-80)
July 14 131k (-75)
Total after 9 months: 3046k
X1 still 838k in the lead but losing ground pretty fast (though I just noticed it has narrowed the margin of losing for 4 straight months now). Next month 360 is 207k, so another relatively weak 360 comp, but no huge software for X1 either until Destiny. The real tale on whether X1 can maintain a long term lead will be told in the holiday months.
If I did one of these charts for PS4, given how poorly PS3 started, it'd be an absolute massacre.
Lifetime
PS4 ~ 3760k
XB1 ~ 3047k
WIU ~ 2629k
I have noticed that PS4 and XO have climbed in August on Amazon. PS4 from 11th in July to about 4th so far in August. Xbox One from about 50 in July to about 40 so far in August. Maybe hardware is picking up a bit, or it could also be everything else is selling relatively less on Amazon.
I wonder when/if we'll reach the point where PS4 lifetime and monthly sales lead over x1 are in equilibrium (in other words is no longer increasing it's percentage lead on a monthly basis). Currently PS4 is ahead by 23% lifetime, and led by 43% this month, so it is still increasing it's overall percentage lead.
360
Nov 2005 326k
Dec 281k
Jan 249k
Feb 161k
March 192k
April 295k
May 221k
June 277k
July 206k
Total after 9 months: 2208k
X1
Nov 13 909k (+583)
Dec 13 908k (+627)
Jan 14 141k (-108)
Feb 14 258k (+97)
March 14 311k (+119)
April 14 115k (-180)
May 14 76k (-145)
June 14 197k (-80)
July 14 131k (-75)
Total after 9 months: 3046k
X1 still 838k in the lead but losing ground pretty fast (though I just noticed it has narrowed the margin of losing for 4 straight months now). Next month 360 is 207k, so another relatively weak 360 comp, but no huge software for X1 either until Destiny. The real tale on whether X1 can maintain a long term lead will be told in the holiday months.
If I did one of these charts for PS4, given how poorly PS3 started, it'd be an absolute massacre.
Lifetime
PS4 ~ 3760k
XB1 ~ 3047k
WIU ~ 2629k
I have noticed that PS4 and XO have climbed in August on Amazon. PS4 from 11th in July to about 4th so far in August. Xbox One from about 50 in July to about 40 so far in August. Maybe hardware is picking up a bit, or it could also be everything else is selling relatively less on Amazon.
I wonder when/if we'll reach the point where PS4 lifetime and monthly sales lead over x1 are in equilibrium (in other words is no longer increasing it's percentage lead on a monthly basis). Currently PS4 is ahead by 23% lifetime, and led by 43% this month, so it is still increasing it's overall percentage lead.
Well, without any in depth research, they have been throwing this around on GAF as example of how things have apparently declined
What were the changes from June to July in 2007?
djskribbles
Legend
From September and on, HW sales should be up again. August might be another slow month.
I thought of another way to look at the decline in hardware sales...
If you separate out the handheld decline as a seperate issue, and the Wii decline, is it possible "core" consoles are not declining? At least at a preliminary glance, I think so.
If you think PS2 sold 150m and Xbox 25m and GC 20m, that's ~200m. Last gen we had 80+80 PS3+360. Looking at core consoles only. Similar totals.
So for example if we go back to July 07 and only look at the core consoles, we had 222k PS2, 170k 360, and 159k PS3, total of 551k
Now fast forward to July 14 and we have, core consoles, 187k PS4, 131k XBO, 81k Wii U (yes I consider Wii U core unlike Wii), 54k 360, 32k PS3, total 485k. Not so disastrous a drop.
Looking at it quickly it looks like it would hold up for comparing to most months in 2007, and if the theory is right, any year.
I looked at another random month, February 2008. We had 281k PS3, 255k 360, and 352k PS2. Total 888k. At a glance I figured no way February 2014 can hang with that, due to that huge PS2 number. Wrong. February 14 featured 268k PS4, 258k XBO, 103k PS3, 82k Wii U, and 114k 360. Total 825k. Short but not by much. And that was with supply limited PS4.
It looks like clearly this isn't going to hold for every month. 2013 had some really really bad months as last gen cratered and nothing replaced it. However in turn Nov-Dec 13 were pretty insane, you had huge numbers for PS4 and XBO, while still big numbers for Wii U, 360, and PS3. That easily trumps say holiday 07, when you had decent numbers only for PS2, 360, and PS3 (among core consoles only of course).
It might be fun to add up these "core consoles" on a yearly basis over the last several years and see how that looks. Will probably do that later.
If you separate out the handheld decline as a seperate issue, and the Wii decline, is it possible "core" consoles are not declining? At least at a preliminary glance, I think so.
If you think PS2 sold 150m and Xbox 25m and GC 20m, that's ~200m. Last gen we had 80+80 PS3+360. Looking at core consoles only. Similar totals.
So for example if we go back to July 07 and only look at the core consoles, we had 222k PS2, 170k 360, and 159k PS3, total of 551k
Now fast forward to July 14 and we have, core consoles, 187k PS4, 131k XBO, 81k Wii U (yes I consider Wii U core unlike Wii), 54k 360, 32k PS3, total 485k. Not so disastrous a drop.
Looking at it quickly it looks like it would hold up for comparing to most months in 2007, and if the theory is right, any year.
I looked at another random month, February 2008. We had 281k PS3, 255k 360, and 352k PS2. Total 888k. At a glance I figured no way February 2014 can hang with that, due to that huge PS2 number. Wrong. February 14 featured 268k PS4, 258k XBO, 103k PS3, 82k Wii U, and 114k 360. Total 825k. Short but not by much. And that was with supply limited PS4.
It looks like clearly this isn't going to hold for every month. 2013 had some really really bad months as last gen cratered and nothing replaced it. However in turn Nov-Dec 13 were pretty insane, you had huge numbers for PS4 and XBO, while still big numbers for Wii U, 360, and PS3. That easily trumps say holiday 07, when you had decent numbers only for PS2, 360, and PS3 (among core consoles only of course).
It might be fun to add up these "core consoles" on a yearly basis over the last several years and see how that looks. Will probably do that later.
Mario Kart 8 has tracked strong since its release, but the hardware boost is delivered is starting to fade. Not really sure why Nintendo chose to produce such a limited number of the MK8 Bundles, but those are sold out, and it doesn't look like Nintendo will be restocking that bundle. I still feel its safe to bet that between MK8 and Smash Bros, Nintendo will move lots of units this Christmas. Even Hyrule Warriors has been tracking well on Amazon, a good sign that it will sell rather well.
Future guesses...
PS4 will lead August and September's NPD hardware sales... November will be a tossup (maybe) depending if a price cut ($299) comes out the XB1 camp during Thanksgiving/Black-Friday time frame. Lastly, Decembers NPD will go to the MS camp if the price cut has happened, and PS4 is supply constrained across all >60ish territories during the holiday season.
When all is said and done, PS4 >15 million in worldwide sales, XB1 ~8.2 million in worldwide sales. Shall revisit...
PS4 will lead August and September's NPD hardware sales... November will be a tossup (maybe) depending if a price cut ($299) comes out the XB1 camp during Thanksgiving/Black-Friday time frame. Lastly, Decembers NPD will go to the MS camp if the price cut has happened, and PS4 is supply constrained across all >60ish territories during the holiday season.
When all is said and done, PS4 >15 million in worldwide sales, XB1 ~8.2 million in worldwide sales. Shall revisit...
If Microsoft drops to $299, then get ready for Microsoft to actively look for potential buyers of their Xbox division. That could cause serious losses for the company. Keep in mind that Microsoft doesn't have tons of first parts games to prop of the financials of their Xbox division. Taking big losses on each console, when you don't have exclusive (high profit software) to offset those losses, is a quick way to lose a lot of money. The reality is PS4 will sell 2-3 times as many units as X1 this gen. Sony can match the price of the X1 at any time, and Sony has the better exclusives. When two consoles are very similar, but one is a litter more powerful with better exclusives, why wouldn't consumers choose that consoles? X1 is in bad shape. Im expecting them to not only sell less than 35 million units this gen, but to lose a lot of money in the process.
Respecting this is your opinion, but seeing how things are going I must say that the likelihood of this happening is extremely slim. To say the least.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
