All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+

[djskribbles]

Still too early... the PS4 is still heavily supply constrained, and the PS4 was a week late. The PS4's sales per week were ~118-133k and the X1's were ~66-73k (don't know when those sales were tracked). 2:1 in the UK seems very possible, and 3:1 worldwide isn't far fetched at all with Japan thrown into the mix. The X360 outsold the PS3 by a considerable amount in the UK and significant amount in the US, yet the PS3 managed to sell about the same worldwide. If MS can't keep up in the UK and US, things really aren't looking good for them (relatively speaking... I'm sure they'll do fine in their own right).

4:1 could have been possible if MS hadn't righted a lot of their wrongs (DRM, used game policy, online required etc. etc.,)... 3:1+ would've been a certainty IMO.

 

[BRiT]

What's the monthly manufacturing capacity of each console? Do we know that?

 

[babybumb]

What's the monthly manufacturing capacity of each console? Do we know that?

If i had to bet.. Sony probably has 30-50k more per week because Japanese plant. Numbers say they didnt get crushed in UK in december because of low supply shipping to too many places but actually extended lead. Australia seems to be only place where PS4 got crushed because of low PS4 vs high One shipments

I would still be suprised if XONE dosent take NPD by 100k+ margin

 

[Shortbread]

What's the monthly manufacturing capacity of each console? Do we know that?

Hypothetically, if the PS4 hits over 3 million units sold worldwide by years-end... and production started in early September (first leaked pictures), maybe 800K per month. If production started in early October, we're talking about 1 million a month. I believe the truth lies somewhere in-between.

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20130611PD207.html

The upstream supply chain reportedly has already started shipping orders for the PlayStation 4 (PS4) in June, and volumes may reach one million units per month by September for the year-end holidays. Meanwhile, volume shipments for Microsoft's Xbox One are expected to start in the third quarter, according to sources from the upstream supply chain.

The PS4 reportedly is manufactured by Foxconn Electronics (Hon Hai Precision Industry) and the Xbox One by Pegatron Technology, while their components are supplied by Lite-On IT, Lite-On Technology, Foxlink, Asia Optical, Kinko Optical, Newmax, Foxconn Technology, Coxon, Nishoku, Elite Advanced Laser, Tong Hsing Electronic Industries, Adda, Delta Electronics, Chicony Electronics and Neng Tyi, the sources said. However, Sony and Foxconn declined to comment about the rumors.

Somewhat off topic, but somewhat relevant, about Foxconn productions yields dealing with iPhone.

http://www.ubergizmo.com/2013/11/fo...production-of-half-a-million-iphone-5s-daily/

Foxconn to boost production, the Wall Street Journal reports that 300,000 workers at Foxconn are now producing half a million (500,000) iPhone 5s units every single day.

The report cites a Foxconn executive who reveals that the manufacturer is now running 100 individual production lines around the clock. Foxconn is now at its maximum output capacity of 500,000 units per day. Nearly 600 workers man the individual production lines as opposed to 500 per line for iPhone 5c and iPhone 5 as assembly procedure for those smartphones is less complicated. Even though there’s consistent demand, Foxconn is reportedly reluctant to expand its output capacity as there have been rumors that Apple might tap other manufacturers like Pegatron and Wistron to build iPhones next year. As of now, Foxconn generates 40 percent of its revenue from Apple.

So it's not far-fetched to believe Foxconn could produce one million PS4s per month, amongst its facilities, if the manpower is there. In theory, Foxconn can produce 15.5 million iPhone 5s per month... that's a sh** load of cell phones.

 

[Rangers]

VGchartz is stupid...not the same as official numbers.

 

[Cyan]

So for the UK it's 60% PS4, 40% XB1. Not a great start for MS but not a horrible one. That's still nowhere near the 4:1 or 3:1 numbers some have been extrapolating.

Agreed, the Xbox One is selling fine, it's just that the PS4 has been breaking some records for the moment being.

VGchartz is stupid...not the same as official numbers.

Yes and no respectively. Sometimes VGchartz can give you a hint of how these systems are selling or get it right, still..not so common.

Thinking back of the numbers they shared from previous years, they have been a hit and a miss. So I hope that Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo tell their actual numbers soon.

 

[Shortbread]

VGchartz is stupid...not the same as official numbers.

I wouldn't say it's stupid, nor will I say it's perfect. VGChartz shops at the same pool of retailers and e-retailers for insiders/snitches when gathering data. So yes, a grain (or two) of salt would be wise...

If I remember correctly, during the previous generations I would see tons of VGChartz info dealing with Wii/PS3/XB360 sales and no one really questioned it when the numbers were within a reasonable margin of error. So, what gives now?

 

[temesgen]

I wouldn't say it's stupid, nor will I say it's perfect. VGChartz shops at the same pool of retailers and e-retailers for insiders/snitches when gathering data. So yes, a grain (or two) of salt would be wise...

If I remember correctly, during the previous generations I would see tons of VGChartz info dealing with Wii/PS3/XB360 sales and no one really questioned it when the numbers were within a reasonable margin of error. So, what gives now?

VGChartz updates their numbers which is a good thing but it also points to the flaws with how they arrive at their conclusions. If you are using their site to reference what happened last year for example you can be reasonably confident with the data, what has happened over the past quarter however isn't going to be nearly as accurate. But wait 9 months from now when they have updated and revised things Q4 2013 should be quite close.

Regarding the hate it seemed to me that a lot of that started to happen when people started to cite VGChartz as evidence that PS3 and 360 were not that far apart in world wide install base. I think they were off pretty bad 3 or 4 years back which left a bit of egg on a few faces and their reputation and then more recently when PS3 and 360 did get close in numbers its been a little too much for some people to discuss rationally.

 

[-tkf-]

I wouldn't say it's stupid, nor will I say it's perfect. VGChartz shops at the same pool of retailers and e-retailers for insiders/snitches when gathering data. So yes, a grain (or two) of salt would be wise...

If I remember correctly, during the previous generations I would see tons of VGChartz info dealing with Wii/PS3/XB360 sales and no one really questioned it when the numbers were within a reasonable margin of error. So, what gives now?

There was a tendency to make educated guessing and then correcting those guesses as the official numbers was released.. But it seems to me they got better at what they do.
For me they were always a good way to follow trends, the comeback of the ps3 for example.

Sale figures are always debateable especially when the console you love isn't doing as good as you want, so some of the hate does come from depressed Playstation, Nintendo and Microsoft owners

 

[Shifty Geezer]

What's the monthly manufacturing capacity of each console? Do we know that?

Nope, although Sony said 'very good' so we can extrapolate that to whatever figure we want (I think a 'very good' production is 2 million a month ).

However, unless the amount of consoles being sold is exactly what current demand is, the lack of availability of hardware points clearly to supply constraints. We also have free-market references that show PS4's selling at higher prices than XB1's, again reinforcing the idea that PS4's are harder to come by relative to demand. That's either due to faster selling, or less stock, and there's little reason to think Sony aren't making as many PS4's as MS is making XB1's.

Lower availability of stock coupled with higher free-market pricing is about as noteworthy evidence as we'll get prior to official figures, and according to economics these points are reliable. The only thing to question is the data on availability - is anyone tracking time to get stock, how much stock arrives, and time to sell stock for places like Amazon? A lack of stock when one goes looking every now and then isn't reliable proof the console is selling faster.

 

[Arwin]

No, but in Europe, Britain has been Microsoft's stronghold. Anyway, 500k just in the UK is a good start for sure. The first 5 million seems to be reachable before E3 at this rate, and next gen will likely reach 10 million by next Christmas, which is promising for next-gen game releases ... I think.

 

[BRiT]

I've heard various resupply numbers monthly on PS4, so once they deplete initial preloaded the growth potential is fixed. Meaning if Sony can only make 1 million a month and they sell 530K in UK then the rest if the world has only 470K available.

The numbers I said are purely example/imaginary only. I don't know what their preload or resupply numbers are. It might not mean much if they're gangbusters in one part of the world if the rest become limited. The same with how fast a unit sells if its not available the entire time. It won't matter for monthly numbers if you sellout in 1 week if you have nothing to sell the rest of the time versus selling all your monthly stock over the entire month.

 

[BRiT]

I thought this has been covered ad nauseam on this forum, so I will give the base detached summary: Don't support the dubious practices of VGCharts and their numbers are worthless for any forward projecting.

 

[Shortbread]

I'm currently working on some numbers, I should have a clearer picture by Saturday or Sunday.

Someone has been naughty and honestly, I'm not shocked. Yet its a common practice, rarely put in check... not strongly anyhow.

Bases are loaded...

 

[Strange]

Is it the usual "out the factory = sold" fiddling?

 

[mrcorbo]

Is it the usual "out the factory = sold" fiddling?

Companies conflating shipped/sold hasn't been an issue for years now since Sony got on board with the industry standard usage for those terms. It would hardly be usual for this to have been done now.

 

[DrJay24]

Someone is stuffing the channels and bragging about "sold" consoles?

 

[Xalion]

With current sold out rates, I don't know that most of the normal "out the factory = sold" fiddling would be that far off actual numbers. Still not good if it was happening, but probably excusable at this point in the life cycle.

I would be less accepting of something like trying to allocate such that a company gets a "press" win rather than allocating according to demand. Like if one of the players is shipping 80% of their consoles to the US so that they look good in NPD while they suffer from lack of supply elsewhere.

 

[McHuj]

In three weeks or so, all companies will be issuing quarterly statements to investors for Q4. I imagine we'll get a good idea of how well each system has sold in 2013, even if it's shipped to retailer numbers.
At the very least it will be an indication of how many they were able to manufacture for retailers in 2013.

I hope Sony goes back to breaking out the PS4/PS3 as separate items and Microsoft doesn't adopt the "Xbox family" approach in reporting numbers.

 

[Shortbread]

Someone is stuffing the channels and bragging about "sold" consoles?

I want to make it perfectly clear, "as of now" some distributors have an overabundance of product... I will leave it at that. I want to make sure from a few others, if this is the case, or improved distribution methods.