All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+
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djskribbles
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On eBay they're currently both selling for around the same price (~$500, more or less). Many Xbox Ones are being sold for less than MSRP, while pretty much all PS4s are being sold for a decent profit. January's NPD numbers will be interesting.
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Why do we care? The numbers we get from NPD are sold through. The two next gen sales press announcements, some time ago now, from MS/Sony were specified to be sell through numbers by each company.
I'm not really sure what was the point of Shortbread's initial post. It was dubious.
I doubt MS/Sony has enough of a handle on Xbone/PS4 demand to channel stuff if they wanted to. There's no way they would know if the system would still be sold out or not, weeks ago when they were making shipping plans. At that point it would be a matter of shipping as many as possible and let the chips fall where they may.
"Channel stuffing" would show up in the quarterly ship numbers. And it's pointless anyway, so I see no reason to engage in it. It'll self correct, as they'll simply have to ship less later.
Regardless, NPD are the main numbers we dissect and they are sold through. And we also get some European sell through numbers and etc.
I guess this can only be an issue if MS issues a new sales press release with dubious wording. But that hasn't happened yet.
I think there is quite a few Xbox One's out there. Dont see it as a bad thing, other than it means the demand isn't there to sell out.
But I eagerly await any new sell through numbers from Shortbread.
I think you might have misunderstood my initial post. Right now, basically everything that hits any market is selling. So say Sony had 1 million PS4s to ship last month. If they shipped 950k to the US and only 50k to the rest of the world so that they would "win" the NPD number for December, I would be disappointed with them. Why? Because it indicates they do not value their other customers as highly as they do a meaningless win in a press release. Instead, I would hope that they shipped consoles to each territory in proportions that were similar to their market shares from last gen.
I use Sony as the example, but I would be disappointed in Microsoft the same way. My objection would simply be that the company was manipulating their allotments to win a meaningless victory - in a way that hurts people in other areas that want to buy their consoles.
I assume that both consoles have roughly the same production rate, and both are selling out pretty steadily. So I honestly wont be impressed regardless who "wins" the next NPD. That win is indicative of allotment strategy, not demand. When we start to have stock sitting on the shelf, then we will start to see who is really ahead so far this gen. I would guess that will happen in Feb/Mar, so Mar/Apr NPD numbers.
D
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Yup. Microsoft and Sony are not baking buns, where the prep-to-cook-to-sell time is measure in hours. PS4 and XBO productions is probably in the weeks timeframe and both companies will likely have committed to produce as many consoles as possible for at least the first three months, if not longer. If supply exceeds demand, distribution channels are the logical place for excess to be absorbed. So close after launch, it would be a leap to assume excess product not sold is necessarily a nefarious plan to exaggerate demand or sales.
djskribbles
Legend
I wouldn't be so sure as of the last few weeks. A lot of stores (online and in store) have Xbox Ones in stock. Plus, as I've said above, many Xbox Ones are selling for less than retail price on eBay. This suggests a slowing demand IMO.
http://www.ebay.com/sch/Video-Game-...0&_nkw=xbox+one&LH_Complete=1&LH_Sold=1&rt=nc
And this was a seller here in Canada that posted two similar bundles for sale.
http://www.ebay.ca/itm/Brand-New-Pl...s&hash=item4617c4575d&clk_rvr_id=568465632508
http://www.ebay.ca/itm/301046228219?clk_rvr_id=568455882844
The Xbox One was available for almost 4 days and sold 26. The PS4 sold all 75 in ~3hrs.
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XBO isn't really sold out. Maybe somewhat in brick and mortar I dont know, but certainly not online...
I have yet to see one in a store. BestBuy, Target, Walmart, EB, Futureshop. There is definitely more demand than supply. Just because you can find one if you look hard enough doesn't mean much, many people won't do that.
If there was channel stuffing you'd be tripping over the things in chain stores. When Sony did it with the ps3 there were pallets of them lining the aisles in futureshop.
djskribbles
Legend
Maybe in some parts of the world, but it's been in stock at bestbuy.com, amazon.com and gamestop.com for the past few weeks. A shopping site I frequently visit (redflagdeals.com), I've seen a few people who have spotted Xbox Ones on the shelves in Canada, but no PS4s. I went to bestbuy a few weeks ago and I saw 3 Xbox Ones behind the customer service desk (not sure if they were returns or what.. I was just there to return my tablet). It's not available everywhere, but it seems like there's more than enough stock at many places in North America. The fact that many Xbox Ones are selling below retail price on ebay is pretty telling, too.
Ultimately we will have an ideal when NPD comes out.
I know that none of the Targets or Kmarts in my area have any on shelves. But all the Walmarts and most of the BestBuys do. Not sure of GS. So, thats not a sign of channel stuffing. Thats a sign of a channel bottleneck or some distributors being overzealous.
I know that none of the Targets or Kmarts in my area have any on shelves. But all the Walmarts and most of the BestBuys do. Not sure of GS. So, thats not a sign of channel stuffing. Thats a sign of a channel bottleneck or some distributors being overzealous.
djskribbles
Legend
December's NPD won't really tell us anything. We know MS has done a better job of resupplying the US (possibly due to slowing demand), but anecdotal evidence has showed that the PS4's sell rate is higher but is more supply constrained. Not until mid-late December did the Xbox One become more readily available. I wouldn't be surprised if the Xbox One beats the PS4 in December's NPD... it could go either way. January will be a lot more telling of the demand for both systems, unless Sony somehow ships fewer systems to the US for some reason.
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yea xbox will be on top of december npd.
not sure we can draw ANY conclusions.... for at least a year or two but suffice to say my prediction is ...
xbox will likely fall behind in NA until sometime in about a year or so. I predict they will start outselling sony again around holiday 2014 (Halo) or early 2015 and eventually take the npd ltd lead there as the bundles try to create price parity, the big games come out and the kinect and os starts to become mainstream and gets casuals wanting to be in on it.
ww, who knows... so hard to tell what the hell goes on there but surely sony will outsell it
not sure we can draw ANY conclusions.... for at least a year or two but suffice to say my prediction is ...
xbox will likely fall behind in NA until sometime in about a year or so. I predict they will start outselling sony again around holiday 2014 (Halo) or early 2015 and eventually take the npd ltd lead there as the bundles try to create price parity, the big games come out and the kinect and os starts to become mainstream and gets casuals wanting to be in on it.
ww, who knows... so hard to tell what the hell goes on there but surely sony will outsell it
I'm not even so sure. PS4 was selling like gangbusters whenever it was in stock. PS4's short intense bursts may have topped XBO's slow burn.
1.1m vs ~900k for either console wouldn't surprise me.
djskribbles
Legend
^Agreed.
In my eyes, it essentially comes down to how many Xbox Ones were sold vs how many PS4s were shipped. Xbox Ones were readily available on Amazon.com, Bestbuy.com and Gamestop.com for at least a full week of December. PS4s sold out within minutes or hours. We just don't know how many either of them shipped.
If the PS4 outsells the Xbox One in December, then I think it's pretty clear that the demand for the PS4 is much higher, if it's not already clear from the anecdotal evidence.
In my eyes, it essentially comes down to how many Xbox Ones were sold vs how many PS4s were shipped. Xbox Ones were readily available on Amazon.com, Bestbuy.com and Gamestop.com for at least a full week of December. PS4s sold out within minutes or hours. We just don't know how many either of them shipped.
If the PS4 outsells the Xbox One in December, then I think it's pretty clear that the demand for the PS4 is much higher, if it's not already clear from the anecdotal evidence.
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short term yes...
but demand at $100 less does not mean one is "preferred" over the other if price were equal. of course the $100 cheaper one will be in greater demand at Christmas and to mostly, early adopters..
it's when the perceived price comes closer either through people wanting the ui experience of xbox, (games and services) bundles or price drop, then the "demand of preference" to the casuals can truly be measured beyond mostly price.
which is where my prediction of long term npd sales favoring xbox comes in
Today there is a frontpage story (on their website) on one the big danish papers, it's about the limited supply vs high demand for the PS4 in Denmark.
http://politiken.dk/forbrugogliv/di...a-udsolgt-playstation-4-gaar-amok-paa-nettet/
Interesting a guy from a retail chain claims that Sony limited the number of consoles in Denmark when they found out that Microsoft wouldn't launch here, because they wanted to boost the US. It's a interesting story because the Pre-Order dates and guarantees didn't change here at any time. And the official imported consoles are all from Japan.
http://politiken.dk/forbrugogliv/di...a-udsolgt-playstation-4-gaar-amok-paa-nettet/
Interesting a guy from a retail chain claims that Sony limited the number of consoles in Denmark when they found out that Microsoft wouldn't launch here, because they wanted to boost the US. It's a interesting story because the Pre-Order dates and guarantees didn't change here at any time. And the official imported consoles are all from Japan.
What an absurd comment. We can start deconstructing all the variables until the two consoles are identical and then say they have the same demand, but what is the point?
What if the PS3 came out at $399, maybe the demand was just as high but the price was the issue? What if...
not absurd compared to the temperature of many posts implying that the ps4 is just a more preferred console due to not having kinect and a bit more powerful hardware.
that to me is absurd.
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