All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+

[Lager]

http://news.xbox.com/2014/07/xbox-one-xbox-one-sales-more-than-double-in-june

Looks like they're getting out early ahead of tomorrows NPD. ~155k units is abysmal and I think we can now say that price isn't the issue.

 

[djskribbles]

I was gonna guess 140-150k, so about what I expected. If they're going by NPD numbers (most likely), then that's about 1.6x the sales/week of May, since June was a 5 week report period. And we know May sales were probably negatively affected by the announcement of the kinectless SKU. Sales probably peaked early from pre-orders, then slowed down the following weeks. I think it's safe to say that the PS4 won June as well, unless PS4 sales fell off a cliff. But I'm guessing the PS4 will be ~220-230k.

 

[SlimJim]

I read that MS has some good news regarding Xbox One sales:
It's respectable that the Xbox One sales have doubled. It appears many people were indeed waiting for the Kinectless SKU.
For MicroSoft it's a good lesson: listen to your customers and you get rewarded. In this case, more than double the sales compared to the month before. If only they had offered this SKU earlier. But then again: at least they show that they can correct their mistakes.

 

[Lager]

I read that MS has some good news regarding Xbox One sales:
It's respectable that the Xbox One sales have doubled. It appears many people were indeed waiting for the Kinectless SKU.
For MicroSoft it's a good lesson: listen to your customers and you get rewarded. In this case, more than double the sales compared to the month before. If only they had offered this SKU earlier. But then again: at least they show that they can correct their mistakes.

It only sold ~77k units last month... Nice to see that MS spin working though.

 

[SlimJim]

It only sold ~77k units last month... Nice to see that MS spin working though.

Well, it's still double, so demand certainly increased.
Btw, it also said the Xbox 360 numbers were still growing, which reminded me: MS has 2 consoles which it is supporting at the moment. Even the 360 people that didn't (yet) get a One, didn't throw their 360's away. MS is still making sales on that platform, cashing in live-cheques on that platform. Just because the new generation started, doesn't mean that the old one disappeared. Xbox brand still has an enormous lead in the USA.
When the Xbox One drops the TV stuff, and gets a 289 dollar MSRP, then all the people who had a 360, will buy the Xbox One. It's just a matter of time until that happens

 

[Shortbread]

Tomorrows NPD is going to be interesting...

 

[Lager]

Well, it's still double, so demand certainly increased.
Btw, it also said the Xbox 360 numbers were still growing, which reminded me: MS has 2 consoles which it is supporting at the moment. Even the 360 people that didn't (yet) get a One, didn't throw their 360's away. MS is still making sales on that platform, cashing in live-cheques on that platform. Just because the new generation started, doesn't mean that the old one disappeared. Xbox brand still has an enormous lead in the USA.
When the Xbox One drops the TV stuff, and gets a 289 dollar MSRP, then all the people who had a 360, will buy the Xbox One. It's just a matter of time until that happens

It only sold ~115k during April... So any increase in demand was insignificant. One thing is for certain, no one, and most certainly not Microsoft should be looking at selling ~155k units after what is essentially a price drop as a positive. Also do you not realise just how far the last gen consoles have dropped off in sales?

 

[djskribbles]

Well, it's still double, so demand certainly increased.
Btw, it also said the Xbox 360 numbers were still growing, which reminded me: MS has 2 consoles which it is supporting at the moment. Even the 360 people that didn't (yet) get a One, didn't throw their 360's away. MS is still making sales on that platform, cashing in live-cheques on that platform. Just because the new generation started, doesn't mean that the old one disappeared. Xbox brand still has an enormous lead in the USA.
When the Xbox One drops the TV stuff, and gets a 289 dollar MSRP, then all the people who had a 360, will buy the Xbox One. It's just a matter of time until that happens

Remember that the XB1 sold 115k in April during a 4 week period. If this 'double the sales' is for a 5 week period like NPD, then that's barely a bump in sales / week. Plus people probably held off in May to buy in June because of the Kinectless SKU, so the numbers are skewed.

 

[Brad Grenz]

Yeah, you could basically shift about 30K from June back to May and the sales would be effectively flat (actually, slightly declining).

 

[Sonic]

Let's wait and see what PS4 sales were like before calling doom and gloom for XB1. I'm interested in seeing if PS4 outsold XB1 and by how much. If it's a small amount then it isn't bad news for MS given the usual slow summers. It could be demand has picked up yet the seasonal demand isn't there overall for either platforms. Summer has a way of making people spend more time and money outdoors on recreational activities. I still spend money on gaming in the summer, but not nearly as much compared to fall/winter. So if XB1 sold 150 - 160k then at least they're back on the path they were earlier this year.

If PS4 outsold XB1 by a lot then MS has real reason to worry. PS4's demand has remained steady and overall market momentum continuing to build. It could just be the tip of the iceberg in terms of sales for the rest of the year. I really wonder how big the sales gap will be at the end of the year or if MS will be able to to bounce back.

 

[DrJay24]

PS4 is likely 220k+ unless it dropped from last month.

 

[Rangers]

2x is somewhat close to what Amazon looked like.

It probably means maybe 150-160k. Assuming MS wasn't correcting for the 5 weeks vs 4 (in which case it would be more, but since they didn't say weekly sales doubled, I guess they didn't).

I wouldn't be 100% sure that means PS4 sold more, although I consider it likely. Going by Amazon as well, PS4 sales are also slowly falling (each month so far PS4 drops a few rankings). But it still should be 200k+.

Really this is a win for Amazon imo, it's about exactly what I guesstimated based on Amazon, which was 210k for PS4 and 160k for X1. And hell, even if PS4 sells 170k or 240k, I'd still consider it a win. We're necessarily dealing with ranges and estimates, being in the ballpark is the best you can really hope for. I would only call it a clear loss for Amazon if PS4 sells 270k+ or something.

The bad thing for Xbox is by Amazon, their sales are about halved again for July from June (basically 1 SKU vs two as the Titanfall SKU dried up). I have a slight hard time believing that, so July will be a test for Amazon.

Current July rankings:

PS4 #12
Kinectless X1 #57

June:

PS4 #8
X1 #49, #50 (Titanfall)

Judging by that and cutting back to 4 weeks, July could be pretty ugly. maybe 60k for x1 and maybe 140k-150k for PS4. As I said I'm skeptical X1 could fall THAT far so it'll be a test for Amazon's predictive abilities if it holds up.

Final Amazon prediction last month http://forum.beyond3d.com/showpost.php?p=1858492&postcount=2539

PS4 June: 225k
X1 June: 162.5k

As you see, looks like X1 may be remarkably spot on. And again, even just being in the ballpark is the best that can really be hoped, as even NPD's figures are in a sense estimates as well.

 

[djskribbles]

That could be very close indeed. That's close to what I guessed.

But rankings generally can't be used to determine sales, only perhaps placement/ranking. June could be an exception because it was a slow month software wise. Destiny pre-orders are skewing the rankings this month. Plus CoD on XB1 is $20.

I don't expect a drop in July. Maybe slightly for XB1 because the spike from the Kinectless SKU has passed. In July we have the Destiny beta (which is why pre-orders are so high) and TLoU:R.

 

[Rangers]

But rankings generally can't be used to determine sales, only perhaps placement/ranking

You'd think, as did I, but last month Amazon was pretty accurate so I'm continuing to see if it lasts. So far as noted, June looks good.

Of course you cant compare holiday months. But these slow months establish a pretty consistent baseline, not wildly varying, upon which Amazon ranking may be useful to determine absolute sales. We shall see.

If I was going to make a July X1 prediction based on Amazon, I'd probably include the X1 Kinect SKU which is #159. PS4 has no other relevant SKU's (no we dont count any SKU which is a preorder, as it does not count as a sale in that month, this is going to cause problems in the month that sku comes due, but we'll worry about that later). This might add, I dont know, again just kinda working from my butt, 10-20k for the X1 guesstimate. So, 70-80k maybe. At least makes it a tad more reasonable.

But it's only mid month, not final rankings etc.

I'm actually pretty interested in this, as achieving something that could tell you, even very roughly, NPD, beforehand would be very valuable (think how much a guy like Pachter would like that ability). Long ago I thought vghcartz could be that thing, of course that didn't happen.

Of course once again, I dont EXPECT Amazon to to be predictive of NPD numbers. Just continuing on since it's been close so far.

Plus CoD on XB1 is $20.

Heh, I got it for $6 shipped (Rakuten sale). Plus BF4 for $15, plus Forza and Titanfall free with my x1 console, and I'm not very interested but CAG tells me MGS Ground Zeroes is $10 used at Gamestop...plus gamefly has a bunch of used games super cheap...next gen software library cheapest ever lol. At least for X1, PS4 seems to be slacking a bit on the software sales, as for example cod ps4 isn't $20. And to think COD is still $59 at Wal Mart or on X1 digital...

 

[DrJay24]

PS4 games have much more demand which drive prices up.

 

[Deleted member 7537]

April

115k / 4 : 28.7K/week

June

~160k / 5 : 32K/week

As others said, price doesn't seem to be the problem.

 

[Rangers]

But...

May 19.25k/week
June (presume 160k) 32k/week

About some 50% increase.

Also, Kinectless SKU began June 9. June NPD also includes the last few days of May I believe. So, roughly two weeks of the five weeks the $399 SKU wasn't available. If we presume X1 sold around 20k/week (prior rate) those two weeks, then it sold ~40k/week post-$399. About a doubling of previous rate.

Certainly it didn't have an amazing effect though, and as noted I'm very intrigued by July based on Amazon.

I still think X1 needs to be $299, that's it's natural price point where imo the value becomes good for the hardware in the box. When or if MS will realize this and how glacially slow they will effect it remains. I think they will have to redesign it ("slim") and de-emphasize build quality to get there, as well. I have my doubts the current huge, glossy, high quality, near silent, front loading slot Blu Ray, touch power button, revision can reach $299. More likely we'd see an interim stopgap step at 350/450 on the current form factor as well. Regardless, $399 helps and is a good start.

 

[Strange]

As others said, price doesn't seem to be the problem.

I personally think it's an identity crisis.

But...

May 19.25k/week
June (presume 160k) 32k/week

About some 50% increase.

Also, Kinectless SKU began June 9. June NPD also includes the last few days of May I believe. So, roughly two weeks of the five weeks the $399 SKU wasn't available. If we presume X1 sold around 20k/week (prior rate) those two weeks, then it sold ~40k/week post-$399. About a doubling of previous rate.

Certainly it didn't have an amazing effect though, and as noted I'm very intrigued by July based on Amazon.

I still think X1 needs to be $299, that's it's natural price point where imo the value becomes good for the hardware in the box. When or if MS will realize this and how glacially slow they will effect it remains. I think they will have to redesign it ("slim") and de-emphasize build quality to get there, as well. More likely we'd see an interim stopgap step at 350/450 as well. Regardless, $399 helps.

Considering it wasn't really a price cut, but rather just an unbundling of the Kinect, expecting a real "spike" in sales is expecting too much.

$299 sounds good but in reality it's rather unreachable, unless they want to lose at least ~ $100 *35000units/week= $3,500,000 dollars/week.
I don't think the execs will be happy with burning through 10 mil USD each month.

What's more, even if they do it not even a guaranteed success from a sales perspective.

 

[wco81]

If they have to cut from $499 to $299 within two years, they might as well jump to the next generation and try to make a more powerful machine at $399.

That is if they decide to stay in the business.

 

[DieH@rd]

Ouch. MS lost Titanfall month, and now they are gonna loose again in a key month. Bad news, especially since they know that they will now loose in July, August and September.

Judging by that and cutting back to 4 weeks, July could be pretty ugly. maybe 60k for x1 and maybe 140k-150k for PS4. As I said I'm skeptical X1 could fall THAT far so it'll be a test for Amazon's predictive abilities if it holds up.

Great job rangers on Amazon data overview and prediction. Although, there is a good chance that if Sony FINALLY starts TLOU Remaster marketing that there will be a boost of PS4 sales. We are 2 weeks from release, and they just yesterday started web previews. They need to do more.