Electric Vehicle Thread!
- Thread starter Grall
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Model 3 and Y are still the best-selling cars in CA but sales are way down:
They can't specifically link the decline to Musk's political views. But there are twice as many registered Democrats in CA and while Republicans may like him, they're not EV buyers.
CA is obviously an important market for EVs:
The Toyota SUV isn't even that strong an EV offering. But they do seem to be aggressively promoting it, maybe to get rid of inventory of a first-generation product which hasn't been well-received by reviewers at least.
arandomguy
Veteran
Isn't the simpler explanation just that there is more competition and alternatives?
The idea that Tesla somehow had a strong moat like a tech company based on it's first mover advantage never made sense to me.
The idea that Tesla somehow had a strong moat like a tech company based on it's first mover advantage never made sense to me.
Yeah I was wishing for alternatives to Tesla long before his political views became controversial.
Supposedly the moats are a very rabidly loyal fan base (maybe more fans of Musk than Tesla itself), FSD and a huge lead in battery manufacturing capacity.
Teslas still on paper have the best range numbers but people also care about things like build quality and materials and finish in interiors. Also, people have always bought cars based on design, styling, looks. And lets face it, all the Tesla designs are stale by now.
Supposedly the moats are a very rabidly loyal fan base (maybe more fans of Musk than Tesla itself), FSD and a huge lead in battery manufacturing capacity.
Teslas still on paper have the best range numbers but people also care about things like build quality and materials and finish in interiors. Also, people have always bought cars based on design, styling, looks. And lets face it, all the Tesla designs are stale by now.
Thing is most of the bits in a BEV are just like any car, and there are some very large companies with a lot of money and long experience of building cars. Yes Tesla has a lead in the bits of a BEV that make a BEV a BEV, but the legacy manufacturers have a lead in all the other bits. Tesla's lead where it does lead is not impenetrable.
Tesla also have a lead in charging infrastructure, but given that many of the majors are inking deals to allow their cars to use that infrastructure, and Musk seems to have lost interest in building it out, that lead will evaporate quite quickly.
FSD is dumb. it will be decades before it is truly FSD rather than the slightly smarter cruise control that it is now.
Tesla also have a lead in charging infrastructure, but given that many of the majors are inking deals to allow their cars to use that infrastructure, and Musk seems to have lost interest in building it out, that lead will evaporate quite quickly.
FSD is dumb. it will be decades before it is truly FSD rather than the slightly smarter cruise control that it is now.
cheapchips
Veteran
This is a common narrative and it doesn't currently add up to much for some of the big players. GM, Ford and VW are struggling to make money per EV and/or struggle get vehicles out of the door.
As an example, Ford are losing $30,000 per Lightning at a ridiculous mark up over it's ICE variant. That's for something that's pretty the same components as the ICE version. How!? As of now, you could generosity give them $15000 to play with on the added battery/motor cost.
Tesla and Chinese companies have continually improved EV manufacturing efficiency. That's where the margins on EVs are coming from. Tesla are making the most money per vehicle, the Chinese are probably making enough.
I'm not sure where Hyundai/Kia is on that profit per vehicle. They're also changing their manufacturing quite radically over the next few years.
Sure. That is the situation now but is not the future.
The Tesla market cap and enthusiastic support base would have you believe that in a couple of years Tesla will be the only car company operating in the West. I don't believe that. The legacy companies have been late to get into the EV game, but I don't believe that they are incapable of catching up. They will have to if they want to compete in certain markets, eg. Europe, in the future.
Whether they can beat the Chinese is a different question. That I don't know. Maybe not. It's not clear Tesla can either.
Tesla suffer from shall we say a lack of mature leadership, and that will be their undoing IMO.
cheapchips
Veteran
Agree that the death of whoever is a bit of a Tesla stan fetish. Companies have ways of surviving. They survived the Japanese car invasion. It's not likely to be pretty over the next 5 years though.
Legacy auto should have already turned out EVs with the quality and technical proficiency of the BYD Seal, to pick one car. Having that existing supply line, manufacturing expertise and infrastructure just doesn't seem helpful. If anything, it seems like it's holding them back.
You don't even have to look to China either. Despite start up cashflow issues, Rivian and Lucid are making significantly better EVs than what legacy auto is producing.
I think Korean and to a lesser extent European auto makers make decent EVs.
cheapchips
Veteran
Hyundai /Kia are doing a good job on vehicles. I don't know how they're doing profit per vehicle though. Really looking forward to their PBV platform as that's very like Canoo's mostly stalled offering.
Where they and European manufacturers have an issue is that they haven't been able to bring the cost down in parity with ICE vehicles. At least not in the UK.
Maybe PSA are just about reaching a turning point there? They're still doing ridiculous thing like charging over £40000 for an Astra.
Rivian and Lucid don’t make EVs which a lot of people can afford. Though Rivian has announced the R2 at $45k but it’s not due until 2026?
They may not survive or produce in any decent volume. You also have to question their service and support after sale.
The legacy companies announced tens of billions in investment and got tax credits. But they started out with huge SUVs and trucks, like the Hummer EV or the coming giant Cadillac Escalade EV, using the battery capacity of 3 or more crossover EVs but priced like $130k or more.
They may not survive or produce in any decent volume. You also have to question their service and support after sale.
The legacy companies announced tens of billions in investment and got tax credits. But they started out with huge SUVs and trucks, like the Hummer EV or the coming giant Cadillac Escalade EV, using the battery capacity of 3 or more crossover EVs but priced like $130k or more.
Not everything is from a US perspective here.
The extent to which they can't or can't afford to depreciate ICE assets too fast is hard to determine.
If you look at what the famous BYD Dolphin costs in Mexico, the upcoming small car Stellantis and Renault EVs don't seem uncompetitive.
cheapchips
Veteran
Upcoming ... so citroen ec3 and grande panda EV for stellantis and 5 e-tech and twingo for renault.
Mexico is not a high wage country and has a developed car manufacturing industry. I suspect the Dolphin price is closer to the true cost there than in China (or Chinese imports). A local subsidy issue ...
Mexico is not a high wage country and has a developed car manufacturing industry. I suspect the Dolphin price is closer to the true cost there than in China (or Chinese imports). A local subsidy issue ...
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cheapchips
Veteran
It's too small for our family but the Hyundai Casper /Inster EV looks like a fantastically practical small car and it's relatively cheap.
Nonsense it has a roof rack....
cheapchips
Veteran
cheapchips
Veteran
Well, that's a given. I'll provide them with swimming goggles and wooly hats and they'll be comfortable enough. Still leaves the problem that there's only a seat per dog inside and that doesn't leave enough room for luggage.
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