Electric Vehicle Thread!

[cheapchips]

Still no real news of cheaper cars that are upcoming, whether they are still coming or delayed
- Hyundai / Kia ima (or imv) platform based cars with LFP battery
- tesla model 2
- new citroen

Not sure with the upcoming cars from China brands.

Can't remember where in Europe you are. The e-C3 and EV3 are still due by the end of the year in the UK. The EV3 will still be close to £30k so not really cheap. Who knows with the Model 2? Probably further out and good luck actually getting one near launch.

Second hand prices for EVs have normalised here after being silly. You can pick up some good deals.

We're getting an e-Berlingo soon on a disability lease scheme that runs in the UK. It has terrible range but for our purposes will just mean adding a snack/charge break to the few long journeys we do. Possibly the least sexy car available unless you like boot space.

Feeling impatient as we were suppose to get it by the end of March. The car's made and sat at the import center waiting to be registered.

 

[orangpelupa]

Can't remember where in Europe you are. The e-C3 and EV3 are still due by the end of the year in the UK. The EV3 will still be close to £30k so not really cheap. Who knows with the Model 2? Probably further out and good luck actually getting one near launch.

Second hand prices for EVs have normalised here after being silly. You can pick up some good deals.

We're getting an e-Berlingo soon on a disability lease scheme that runs in the UK. It has terrible range but for our purposes will just mean adding a snack/charge break to the few long journeys we do. Possibly the least sexy car available unless you like boot space.

Feeling impatient as we were suppose to get it by the end of March. The car's made and sat at the import center waiting to be registered.

yeah, hyundai/kia plan is for this year. btw isnt EV3 is suposedly to be lower than 30k UK money? IIRC its the EV5 (still china exclusive) that's around 30K UK money.

BYD on the other hand has managed to keep dropping their BEV prices despite still using the same platform.

 

[cheapchips]

btw isnt EV3 is suposedly to be lower than 30k UK money? IIRC its the EV5 (still china exclusive) that's around 30K UK money.

The EV3 is a Soul replacement, so probably around £28k. It'd be nice if it's cheaper! The EV5 will be pushing towards £40k, as its playing in the Model Y market.

 

[Davros]

Possibly the least sexy car available unless you like boot space.

Count yourself lucky U.K mobility cars used to be this (yes it has 3 wheels)

 

[Mariner]

Motorcycle engine in there as well, I seem to think? I'm old enough to remember seeing one or two of those going around when I was a kid. I'm not sure you even needed a fu licence to drive them!

 

[wco81]

So about 5-6 months ago, conservatives were taking victory laps about EV sales slowing and how they were too expensive and that nobody wanted them.

GM and Ford talked about rolling back their EV plans and going more into hybrids or PHEVs.

Public perception hasn't been helped by recent memories of supply shortages and pandemic price gouging, but the chorus of concerns about EV sales became noticeably louder toward the end of last year and the beginning of 2024. EV sales in 2023 grew by 47 percent year on year, but the first three months of this year failed to show such massive growth. In fact, sales in Q1 2024 were up only 2.6 percent over the same period in 2023.

Tesla doesn't break out its sales data by region anymore, but its new US registrations were down by as much as 25 percent, month on month, as its overall marketshare of EVs closes in on 50 percent this year; by contrast, Tesla was 80 percent of the US EV market in 2020. (Overall, Tesla's global deliveries fell by 8.5 percent.)

The other sick patient in addition to Tesla is Volkswagen. Despite local production of the ID.4 crossover in Chattanooga, Tennessee, the brand saw EV sales fall by 37 percent in Q1. It has also abandoned plans to bring the ID.7 electric sedan to North America, and the long-awaited ID. Buzz microbus has yet to reach US showrooms more than eight years after it was first shown here.

But all this noise has been enough to spook executives into action. Both Ford and General Motors took the embarrassing step of rolling back their electrification goals, all but admitting they bet on the wrong horse. Instead of turning away from new internal combustion engine products, we're set for a new flurry of hybrids—just don't expect any of them to show up before 2026.

Yet sales of several EV brands are now WAY UP over 2023, which itself was a record year for EV sales.

The problems with assembling Ultium cells into battery packs appears to be in GM's past now. Cadillac Lyriqs are starting to become a common sight on the road, and GM CEO Mary Barra told Bloomberg that GM expects to build between 200,000 and 300,000 Ultium-based EVs this year, a huge increase over the 13,838 it managed to ship last year.

Meanwhile, Ford's EV "slump" is nothing of the kind. In May, it sold 91 percent more F-150 Lightnings than last year. E-Transit sales were up 77 percent. And the Mustang Mach-E showed growth of 46 percent. In total, Ford's EV sales for the first five months of this year were up 87.7 percent on 2023, helped no doubt by the company's price cuts.

High double-digit sales growth (in Q1 2024) has also been occurring at Hyundai and Kia (up 56.1 percent), BMW (up 57.8 percent), Rivian (up 58.8 percent), Mercedes (up 66.9 percent), and Toyota (up 85.9 percent).

"As anticipated, Tesla's sales took a hit, influencing the overall market dynamics. However, a few brands saw significant EV sales increases, achieving over 50 percent year-over-year growth," said Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of industry insights at Cox Automotive. "As noted in January, we are calling 2024 'the Year of More.' More new products, more incentives, more inventory, more leasing and more infrastructure will drive EV sales higher this year. Even so, we'll continue to see ups and downs as the industry moves toward electrification."

"We view the current headwinds that EV sales are experiencing in the US and Europe as short-term in nature. The buildup of charging infrastructure, availability of affordable EV models with a fall in battery prices, combined with government regulations, will drive sustainable BEV growth in the long run," said Cardell.

Tesla may be in trouble, but other EVs are selling just fine

Almost every other automaker is seeing double-digit EV sales growth.

arstechnica.com

So Tesla and VW are struggling. Maybe ironic, Tesla started a round of price cuts about 6 months ago and other brands followed, which may be resulting in some of these big sales growth percentages.

Right now, there are some screaming great deals on EV leases.

 

[MfA]

e-C3

Fiat Panda EV will be built on the same platform. Renault 5 E-tech was supposed to compete in the same price range this year, but the cheapest version has been delayed.

 

[Albuquerque]

I don't think Tesla should be categorized as struggling anytime soon

While it's easy to say Tesla "only" owns half of the EV market, this means every other EV manufacturer in the US must then fight for their tiny slice of the remaining half. By these numbers alone, Tesla's share of the EV market is roughly ten times bigger than anyone elses. Sure, sales aren't what they were (thank you to good competition, more on this in a moment) yet Tesla is still outselling everyone else multiple-times over. Struggling? Not really. Also remember US Teslas are majority built here on US shores where feasible, versus only a smattering of singleton models from other EV manufacturers which can claim the same. Wishing Tesla to go under would also affect tens of thousands of US employees -- are we really that bitter? For the record, I'm perfectly fine with Elon being fired straight into the sun on one of his rockets. That singular action would undoubtedly boost every one of "his" companies by double-digit returns, but I digress...

The Big Three really piss me off. Let's start with the ones who had the most (IMO) compelling competitor to Tesla: the Ford Mach-E. Sadly, they defaulted to selling via their Good-Old-Boy franchise dealership model, which seemed to try its very best to kill all EV sales from day one. The dealers showed less than zero interest in learning the EV offerings and capabilities, likely due to massively cutting into their warranty and maintenance cash-cow business. Endless stories online about people at dealerships asking simple questions to utterly incompetent sales staff, or worse customers being told outright lies either due to ignorance or malice. Then those dealers doubled-down to ensure EV sales remained in the gutter by price-gouging and general fuckery with paying customers not getting what they asked or paid for. So many horror stories of ordering at one price and being greeted by something entirely marked up, or ordering one package and getting nothing of the sort... Finally, what the hell was Ford marketing thinking when they tied it to the Mustang name? It's not a Mustang you imbeciles, why are you poisoning your own well?

Then we get Chevy/GM electrifying 8,000lb Hummers? I mean, the Cybertruck now and hopefully forever takes the crown for absolute-dumbest EV "ute" in the world, but that Hummer IMO was the previous EV shitpile king in the pre-CT era. Let's combine the worst possible range, shit towing ability, no storage space, all randomly tossed into an impossibly heavy and huge chassis, and charge out the ass for it! UUUGGGHH WHY DOESNT ANYONE WANT TO WORK BUY EVS? Bring back the Volt and the Bolt, you assholes! (Yes, I know, they are finally bringing back the Volt. At least in theory. Thank whichever diety you prefer, if it comes to fruition...)

Oh but now gasoline engines (PHEV of course) are gonna save us! I got a wager: it's because gasoline engines need all the maintenance they always have, but you get the little smiley face sticker for those folks who want to feel like they're making a difference. Yeah, a handful of electric miles is very useful for those folks who commute, but that disused gasser needs gasser maintenance still before it rots.

I'm really glad VW/Audi/Porsche and Hyundai/Kia seem to be taking the right steps, even if their sales are a bit down right now. Both companies are super competitive and are bringing their A-game to Tesla's door step.

Finally, as much as people like to talk about BYD bringing the pain to Tesla (and they are), I'm leery of Chinese products for a few reasons. The most obvious is the spyware which we have to presume exists in every single electronic device coming out of the country. Second and perhaps more pressing in the long term is the absolute race to the bottom that China will always win over the US manufacturers -- incredibly lax controls around labor wage, labor safety, and ecological impact to manufacturing. Yeah, the US is no saint when it comes to a lot of labor loop-holes, yet we still have some basic protections around wages, safety, and some basic legal guardrails for how toxic your manufacturing can be. Whatever our weaknesses are in that space, and there are plenty, China can simply laugh at on the race to the bottom. Forced labor in factories, sub-poverty wages for full time employees, and a no-environmental-fucks-given attitude for big manufacturers and big resource extractors, especially if it means running US supply chains into singular sourcing due to pricing wars.

Yes, I know, pretty much any supply chain coming out of China has these problems. I'd like to hope we're doing more to fix that as more manufacturing (to include the hard one: chip manufacturing) comes back inside the US borders. But entire cars sourced and built in China is a pricing war nobody can win, because so much of it will be based on the shoulders of a dystopian society.

 

[wco81]

EV sales in the US may have a relatively low ceiling because of protectionist policies.

Not just tariffs on Chinese EVs but especially battery and other component supply chains. Simply put, domestic manufacturers are unable to produce EVs with lower costs and volume without these supply chains.

That means that currently, only a dozen cars are eligible for the full $7500 tax credit.

Politically, they have to try to placate the Midwest states with heavy auto manufacturing infrastructure.

But what it means is that the car makers pass on the cost of higher tariffs for battery components to sellers and EV car prices are high. Also because volumes are limited without Chinese components, they opt for big expensive trucks and SUVs as EVs rather than more efficient passenger cars, though this isn't a problem unique to EVs as Americans have chosen larger vehicles for at least a couple of decades now.

But the result of these trade policies and politics and market dynamics, EVs are still priced beyond many buyers, even with tax credits.

“It’s not just that the same car costs less in China, it’s that in China you have a wider variety,” says Mazzocco. “US automakers will have the leisure of not having competition, and they’ll be able to focus on making these high-cost trucks”—a reference to larger sedans and SUVs, which have bigger profit margins.

“That’s just what the Biden administration feels they need to do on the political front, because they need to prioritize jobs,” she adds.

Price and infrastructure

Electric vehicles face other barriers to mass adoption. Affordability, lack of charging infrastructure and range anxiety all remain concerns for mainstream US car buyers.

The price for a new EV averaged just less than $57,000 in May, compared with an average of a little more than $48,000 for a car or truck with a traditional engine.

The starting price for a Tesla Model Y, by far the most popular electric vehicle in the US, was just less than $43,000 during the first quarter. The Ford F-150 Lightning, the electrified version of the best-selling pick-up truck in the US, was teased at $42,000 when it went on sale in May 2022 but now starts at $55,000—more than $11,000 above the petrol-powered F-150.

Read in Ars Technica: https://apple.news/A8T1qXvfsRySm0p0gBxDNNw

So adoption is slowed down by protectionist policies which keep prices high, as well as incentives to only produce bigger, more expensive EVs.

There's a lot of talk about $25k EVs and they may eventually happen but will they be comparable to the lowest ICE cars that few people want? Even lower-income people may opt for a used upscale model over a new entry-level vehicle.

Meanwhile, there are only so many early adopters and people willing to spend more to have an EV. Eventually most such buyers will have bought or leased EVs. Then what?

 

[Albuquerque]

Honesty though, China has ways to undercut literally everyone's cost due to a number of "unfair" business practices like forced labor and a complete disregard for environmental impact and a near monopoly on rare earth minerals like cobalt.

They also have repeatedly demonstrated their intentional distribution of spyware in both hardware and software form, which means there are real and very serious privacy concerns even larger than the usual things we in the US already have to be generally unhappy with. Bluntly, a 100% Chinese sourced device replete with cameras, sensors, and internet access should always be treated with a LOT of skepticism.

I'm personally a fan of Elon Musk being fired directly into the sun on one of his rockets, but I'm also a fan of Tesla pushing the other EV producers REALLY HARD in the pricing space. We need that competition to continue driving down the space, which is mostly in support of a TON of US-based jobs and manufacturing.

 

[wco81]

They may be heavily subsidizing but not only do they dominate battery supply chains, they lead in advanced chemistries.

 

[Albuquerque]

Again, all of that might be true.

It's still not a reasonable assertion to sell 100% Chinese cars here in the states, for all the aforementioned reasons. There are other good ways to foster innovation and competition, both of which are things Tesla (and their shitty CEO who just got paid billions, ugh) are doing. Hyundai/Kia and VW/Audi/Porsche are right behind them, and will continue to keep the pressure on -- and rightfully so. You can tell me it's protectionist, but we're not blocking cars from dozens of other countries...

Mildly offtopic: I swear my next car purchase will be a CPO version of the current Porsche Taycan Turbo. Soooo hawt.

 

[Sxotty]

I was so hoping that Tesla stockholders would vote against Elons pay package and he would quit in a Huff. Then I would feel better about buying a Y. The CT seems pretty terrible, but that was elon's baby. I do dislike Tesla seeming allergic reaction to physical buttons, but otherwise they are very nice. A blazer, mach e, ev6 etc..don't come with three row option. Only Y.

Albuquerque franchise laws make it illegal for the big three to sell directly to consumers as I understand it, but yes the dealership model is awful.

 

[AlphaWolf]

I was so hoping that Tesla stockholders would vote against Elons pay package and he would quit in a Huff. Then I would feel better about buying a Y. The CT seems pretty terrible, but that was elon's baby. I do dislike Tesla seeming allergic reaction to physical buttons, but otherwise they are very nice. A blazer, mach e, ev6 etc..don't come with three row option. Only Y.

Albuquerque franchise laws make it illegal for the big three to sell directly to consumers as I understand it, but yes the dealership model is awful.

Kia ev9 has 3 row seating.

 

[Sxotty]

Kia ev9 has 3 row seating.

Yes I'm aware. It is a larger class of vehicle and to get an AWD version quite a bit more money. I might pick up a used one since prices seem to fall quickly for used EVs. I was pretty tempted by outlander phev, 26mpg and 11gal tank is pretty poor and small though compared to other similar vehicles. The EV9 will remain on my list though. If the Sorento PHEV had a 2nd row bench instead of captains chairs I would probably buy it since it is more efficient than the outlander. I was close to getting a Y from hertz selling them all off cheap but just couldn't do it.

 

[Albuquerque]

I was so hoping that Tesla stockholders would vote against Elons pay package and he would quit in a Huff. Then I would feel better about buying a Y. The CT seems pretty terrible, but that was elon's baby. I do dislike Tesla seeming allergic reaction to physical buttons, but otherwise they are very nice. A blazer, mach e, ev6 etc..don't come with three row option. Only Y.

Albuquerque franchise laws make it illegal for the big three to sell directly to consumers as I understand it, but yes the dealership model is awful.

Agreed on all fronts, including your statement about the franchise model blocking the existing three from selling direct. They need to figure out how to work past that limitation, or else somehow put some teeth into those franchise clauses to get those old bastards into the current world. Otherwise, I fear the archaic franchise model will simply choke out their own host. I don't wish that on the hundreds of thousands or even millions of employees which will suffer the resulting collapse, however so many of the players in this space cannot see any futher than their gross margins for this quarter and then the next.

 

[digitalwanderer]

 

[orangpelupa]

That got me interested in REX BEV lol

 

[cheapchips]

That got me interested in REX BEV lol

They're not necessarily a terrible interim solution. Are there actually any good+reasonably priced ones though?

 

[Sxotty]

The list of cons is rather longer than nothing Digi .

35% increase in weight for one.