Fact: Nintendo to release HD console + controllers with built-in screen late 2012

[liolio]

bit-tech has posted their article. It's fairly interesting.

http://www.bit-tech.net/gaming/wii/2011/05/04/nintendo-project-cafe-rumours-analysis/1




I think Nintendo will go with 28nm process tech since it's not coming out until mid-2012 at the soonest.

Their speach is not that interesting or documented either:

48 unified stream processors (or ALU pipes, as Microsoft called them back then) was revolutionary, but it now looks pretty weedy compared with the 1,536 stream processors found in the Radeon HD 6970 2GB. Of course, the 48 scalar units found in the Xenos GPU are not directly comparable to the stream processors found in AMD's Radeon HD PC chips, but there's still a gulf between them in terms of graphics processing power.

This is plainly wrong, ALUs in xenos are packed by 5 (as in R700 / R800) vs 4 in Cayman. So either they compare the Xenos 48 "scalar units" (which are in fact Vec5 units ) to 384 units in cayman or the 240 ALUs in Xenos to the 1536 ALUs in Cayman. It doesn't fare well for the rest of their paper.
They do not get into the advantages and architectural differences between the HD4670 and the HD5670 (in regard to the width & the number of SIMD arrays as well as in regard to texturing power).
They don't consider the possibility of an APU which given the size of a 4670 is weird.

Honestly we do better at speculation here.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

bit-tech has posted their article. It's fairly interesting.

http://www.bit-tech.net/gaming/wii/2011/05/04/nintendo-project-cafe-rumours-analysis/1

I think Nintendo will go with 28nm process tech since it's not coming out until mid-2012 at the soonest.

They need to have several million consoles made for launch day, as they won't want to to be supply-constrained for the first weeks as they were with the Wii. That means starting to produce the consoles as early Q3 '11 or so, depending on how much confidence they have in the console's success.

That said, the chips could be being mass-produced right now, specially if devkits are already in the hands of developers.
And right now means no 28nm for anyone.
Not until a new console revision is made, at least.

 

[Megadrive1988]

So 40nm then?

 

[swaaye]

I'd think they'll choose a proven process. They aren't looking for crappy yields on a ultra new process and they almost certainly aren't going to be building huge Fermi/Cypress/Cayman chips. 40nm sounds right because nothing smaller has been thoroughly used yet outside of Intel's in-house 32nm producing probably full custom CPUs.

28nm is coming up but it has to be too far off to be a safe bet for a coming-soon mass production run of millions of consoles.

 

[function]

Would even Nintendo launch a new home system using a 3 year old manufacturing process? The ramp on 28 nm would need to be pretty bad to scare Nintendo away from launching a system a year after 28nm PC parts arrive.

There's also the possibility of Global Foundry's 32nm - AMD will have had experience of mass producing GPUs on 32nm. Nintendo could possibly even have hedged their bets just like AMD, and have waited to see whether 28nm TSMC or 32nm GF was the best choice.

GF might allow an IBM CPU and AMD GPU on the same chip too, with all the kinks worked out for both GPU production and high clock, complex CPUs.

 

[liolio]

Would even Nintendo launch a new home system using a 3 year old manufacturing process? The ramp on 28 nm would need to be pretty bad to scare Nintendo away from launching a system a year after 28nm PC parts arrive.

There's also the possibility of Global Foundry's 32nm - AMD will have had experience of mass producing GPUs on 32nm. Nintendo could possibly even have hedged their bets just like AMD, and have waited to see whether 28nm TSMC or 32nm GF was the best choice.

GF might allow an IBM CPU and AMD GPU on the same chip too, with all the kinks worked out for both GPU production and high clock, complex CPUs.

I'm crossing finger
The hd 5670 consumes 61 Watts (fron my researches on the web) and is 107mm2. HD4670 should be a bit tinier consumes a bit less. It's already too much for a single chip. they need GF 32nm process.
llano should launch really soon, I still don't exclude the possibility.

 

[swaaye]

Well don't forget about the Mobility Radeon role. These chips can definitely be tuned for lower power usage at load. At idle they are all very frugal even on the desktop. If they can be put in a notebook, they can be put into a Wii-like casing.

 

[Entropy]

So 40nm then?

Depends a lot on just when in 2012 they expect to launch. We know that AMD expects to launch a whole new line-up of mobile chips on 28nm in Q411, and that's not terribly low volume. The further we extend into 2012, the greater the odds of finer lithography, obviously. However, we might be looking at the wrong fabs here - if they use an IBM supplied CPU, IBM might also be the ones to produce a single-chip solution, just as the Valhalla of XB360 is made by them (+Global Foundries). Global Foundries is producing for AMD on 32nm right now. So that might also be an option, and a rather attractive one for a single chip solution if I were Nintendo. Same IP suppliers and manufacturers as for their own previous efforts as well as for XBOX360. Seems both safe and straightforward.

 

[Kaotik]

What's the status on NEC processes?

 

[Megadrive1988]

Of course, at the end of the day, it doesn't matter to me if the process is 40nm, 32nm or 28nm. As a consumer, I just want a powerful Nintendo console. I want all 800sp in the R7xx variant they're apparently going to use.

 

[borowki]

I've been thinking about the idea of a built-in screen in the controller from a business point of view. It really doesn't make much sense. Console makers make a lot their money off of accessory sales. I'm guessing here, but a controller that they sell for forty bucks probably costs them 10 bucks to make. Adding a screen really cuts down the profit margin. And few people would be willing to shell out $200 for extra controllers just in case friends might come over for Mario Cart.

It makes much more sense if the touch-screen is an optional independent device that you can mount on the controller. That allows Nintendo to keep the price of the base model much lower. Imagine the company selling a "Core" package without the touch-screen and a "Pro" package with it.

On its own, the touch-screen can be used to control media functions and for lightweight web-surfing. For example, in the middle of a party, you suddenly want to bring up a YouTube on the television. You pick up the little pad, uses the touch-screen keyboard to go a search, and up comes the video.

On the gaming side, the obvious advantage of having a detachable device is that you can let someone handle it. Imagine a flight-sim. With the gamepad you fly the plane, while your friend serve as your weapon officer with the touch-screen controller. There're probably many other of these asymmetric co-op possibilities. And I think it can be a rewarding social experience. You play a game all day long and you just cannot attain that achievement because there're too many things happening at the same time. A friend comes over and--bam--you make it through.

The screen can also be used in a FPS in head-to-head match with a friend. Instead of split-screen, the second player's perspective is projected wirelessly onto the portable screen. The thing could even have an outlet so you can hook it up to a TV set elsewhere in the house.

I can also imagine the screen being mounted on different accessories for various purpose. It can be mounted on a gun enclosure, for example, and function as a red-dot sight in a shooter.

 

[ninzel]

I initially thought the same thing,but then you have to think about Nintendo's philosophy about being different.
Offering it as an accessory means not every console has it and it's not a fundamental difference to the system. So what is the Wii2 left being but another PS360 in the marketplace.
Whatever they do to make the system stand out must be included in the core system.
And so far the only thing in the rumours that stands out is the controller.
Just like the Wii.They could have been safer be having a traditional controller and offering the Wiimote as an accessory but they didn't.

 

[Refreshment]

I've been thinking about the idea of a built-in screen in the controller from a business point of view. It really doesn't make much sense.

It makes much more sense if the touch-screen is an optional independent device that you can mount on the controller.

I have thought about every possible setup, like separated atachable screen, transformable controllers, clamshell controllers. The thing is if you stop to think about it, adding some buttons and sticks to the touch screen (and whatever extra hardware it could pack depending of its functions) wouldn´t make it a lot more expensive. Already posted in this thread the most likely setup in regards to controllers that Nintendo could implement.

To sum up, a pointing control device like Wiremote/Nunchuck and a traditional controller with touchscreen is the simple most aproachable way for Nintendo. It simplifies design, doesn't sacrifice durability and withouth any convulted new design it doesn't exponentialy increases costs to them.

Adding to the above, it makes sense to include both types of control methods this time around because devs all over the world now have experience with motion input and lets not even talk about dual analog traditional controllers.

In regards to the cost of the touch screen device, i think Nintendo plans to just pack one per system. Maybe for the most advanced/complex use (like streaming the game) it could only support 1 touch screen at a time anyway.

 

[poopypoo]

Firstly, sorry for not bringing anything more than speculation to this thread. I've read the whole thing, and I can't resist insisting that this is Ninty's golden opportunity to crush the competition.

The key is that resolutions are sort of fixed at 1080p. This means if they invest wisely into groundbreaking (for the console crowd) tech, they can produce something powerful enough to seriously limit the advantages sony and ms can bring next round. Some people will shell out another $500 for more geometry or more cpu power, but most won't be able to tell the difference, especially on the later systems' launch titles.

There are naturally major questions this brings: will N be able to convince 3rd parties they're for real this time? I think they can do it, but it will take MSesque wheelbarrows of cash to land hotshit exclusives.

It's a risk, but when has it ever seemed more savage to the competition? Sure, the other two can hang in there for another round. But has Sony won any new fans at all this generation? Are the fans MS has gained really attached to paying for Gold?

The bigger question is asked by the Wii, of course. Is N still interested in "core" gamers? Or are they working out a whole new slice of a bigger pie? It seems like the core market is ripe for the picking. Bring a good free or cheap online friend service, a true badass console, some nextgen exclusive love, and you can easily give 50 million gamers no real reason to update in 2013.

Will they do it? I doubt it. But they have the pockets to try!

 

[Shifty Geezer]

The key is that resolutions are sort of fixed at 1080p. This means if they invest wisely into groundbreaking (for the console crowd) tech, they can produce something powerful enough to seriously limit the advantages sony and ms can bring next round. Some people will shell out another $500 for more geometry or more cpu power, but most won't be able to tell the difference, especially on the later systems' launch titles.

Not sure I agree. In 3 years we may see significant advances in how things are done, such that it's not a matter of more geometry and CPU power, but things actually looking better. Nintendo's next console is still going to run on triangles, built on current ways of doing things. The other two may have time, with the new programmable hardware of now leading to more exploratory rendering techniques, to come up with effective silhouette rendering for corner-free edges, and use new AA hardware to get better IQ, for examples. It depends what tessellation brings to the table over the next 18 months or so, but the scope is there for shifts in how things are done such that significantly more can be achieved with the moderate advance in silicon.

There's also the question of whether developers would invest in supporting Wii's superior output (if it has one), or if they just make cheap ports using PS360 assets. Being too early and not advanced enough in hardware could backfire.

It's a risk, but when has it ever seemed more savage to the competition? Sure, the other two can hang in there for another round. But has Sony won any new fans at all this generation? Are the fans MS has gained really attached to paying for Gold?

Sony proved that fans from prior generations count for very little. Whether they won or lost fans this generation, each generation almost starts from scratch, same for Nintendo. Whether people buy NES6 or not won't be because they bought Wii, but because NES6 does or doesn't offer an experience they want.

 

[lwill]

Not sure I agree. In 3 years we may see significant advances in how things are done, such that it's not a matter of more geometry and CPU power, but things actually looking better. Nintendo's next console is still going to run on triangles, built on current ways of doing things. The other two may have time, with the new programmable hardware of now leading to more exploratory rendering techniques, to come up with effective silhouette rendering for corner-free edges, and use new AA hardware to get better IQ, for examples. It depends what tessellation brings to the table over the next 18 months or so, but the scope is there for shifts in how things are done such that significantly more can be achieved with the moderate advance in silicon.

There's also the question of whether developers would invest in supporting Wii's superior output (if it has one), or if they just make cheap ports using PS360 assets. Being too early and not advanced enough in hardware could backfire.

One thing that may be in Nintendo's favor compared to the last generation is how Epic and other American developers are now pushing technology for portable systems. Battery and heat issues will prevent portable systems from suppassing 360/PS3's overall power for awhile, so there could be software development taking place that the Wii 2 could also take advantage of.

 

[borowki]

The thing is if you stop to think about it, adding some buttons and sticks to the touch screen (and whatever extra hardware it could pack depending of its functions) wouldn´t make it a lot more expensive.

That's sort of my point. The buttons and sticks are cheap. Add in a touch-screen and your BOM goes up by, I don't know, $15 to $25. Only part of that can be passed to the consumers. A game controller is a game controller in their mind and they won't be willing to pay that much more. So your profit margin is seriously squeezed. In the scenario where someone buys a copy of Mario Cart plus three controllers, you make far less money.

Personally, I'm hoping the rumors are wrong and what Nintendo really is doing is putting a touch-screen on a next-generation Power Glove. Now that would be cool.

 

[swaaye]

Not sure I agree. In 3 years we may see significant advances in how things are done, such that it's not a matter of more geometry and CPU power, but things actually looking better.

Do you remember all the talk of procedural generation for the 360/PS3 generation? Lets just say I'll believe newfangled stuff when I see it. We are still in DX9 land today (if highly refined).

 

[Deleted member 13524]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=27551077&postcount=7659

A translation from a loading.se article where they give the console a new name - Nintendo Feel - and give new enphasis to the tactile feedback screen.


I'll be honest here: Nintendo has grabbed my full interest with the screen controllers and tactile feel generation.
It only depends on either they can get decent graphics in the console or not.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Do you remember all the talk of procedural generation for the 360/PS3 generation? Lets just say I'll believe newfangled stuff when I see it. We are still in DX9 land today (if highly refined).

We've seen the development of new realtime GI solutions and alternative AA solutions this generation, due to programmability. And that's because PC developers, the epicentre of new software technologies, have gotten hold of fast programmable hardware in the new GPUs. Now that shaders are extremely versatile, they are exploring new ways of doing things. Intel's research paper has spawned an explosion of AA techniques and novel thinking. It would be incredibly stupid if at this point, no-one reviews a lot of the historic ideas that just weren't possible until hardware become both fast enough and flexible enough to implement it. I think this gen's system were limited by PC hardware at the time of launch, and then by performance once new thinking took off.

Perhaps I'm being (uncharacteristically) optimistic, but I do hope next-gen will see better technologies than the same basic triangle rasterising technique we've been using for 20+ years.